Expect Extreme Winter, US Forecasters Warn...

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Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

I agree with Rose. There are a lot of new buzz words coming out, and many of them make unusual situations seem like end-of-the-world situations. There is a difference. "Unusual" means your grandfather might have seen it as a boy but maybe not since.

I see a logical explanation for it: In the last few years, TV and print media have been going down the tubes. We studied the trend when I was in UNH Journalism school in 2004, and it's more apparent now. There are many reasons for the media going down the tubes -- too many to mention without getting off-topic. The result is that they're pulling out all the stops to retain viewers so they can stay alive.

The average news-watcher's attention span shortened on 9/11. For the first time in the age of modern media, there was such a flood of information, and such a demand for the very latest, that when the event's information flow started to slow down a few days later, the viewers had already become addicted to the high-speed-info-feed. There was demand, and so suppliers stepped forward.

Now we in the weather and climate field have to deal with the public's increased jumpiness. Remember when we had the terror alert color level constantly flashing on the news screen? They don't display it anymore, probably because it didn't change enough to keep people interested. But they still feed everyone's craving for that sort of thing.

Thus, we have, and will continue to have, things like "Super La Nina," which I have never heard of, either. I learn new things every day, so when I see things like this I try to dig a little and see if I might be enlightened. But after Rose said she hadn't heard of Super La Nina, I didn't bother digging.

For the record, there IS a La Nina happening this year. It is affecting the weather. And it will affect reporters, too.

So very well said.

I find myself completely turned off by the "over-the-top" hyperbole spun by so many TV meteorologists/personalities that I pay little attention to their weather forecasts anymore. Instead I read interesting and well thought out posts like your's and Rose's, and search out many alternative web based blogs and sites.

I sincerely thank you for the time you put into this site, and your ability to explain complex weather patterns and trends in layman's terms.

I look forward to your prognostication throughout this upcoming winter season!

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[Merrymeeting]

So I take it that you won't be watching the non-stop, 10 hours of election coverage on every station tonight, where talking heads will go on an on about nothing, until they have some actual results sometime tomorrow?

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

So I take it that you won't be watching the non-stop, 10 hours of election coverage on every station tonight, where talking heads will go on an on about nothing, until they have some actual results sometime tomorrow?

I watched a little bit of it. As usual, they had their early projections: "Our network is projecting that [name] will win the senate seat for [state.]" Their graphic puts a check mark next to his name and grays out his opponent's picture. At the same time, another flashy graphic appears at the bottom of the screen: "ALERT! Winner declared!" Then I would look to see the fine print and it would say something like, "19 percent of ballots counted."

They treat meteorology the same way. In the 1980s they announced storms as top stories when the storms were set to begin within a few hours. Now they're making top stories out of storms that haven't even formed yet. I think our our "Me-first" culture is playing a role, which the TV outlets reflect: "When the Monster MegaStorm hit, WE were the first ones to tell you about it! No one informs you like we do! Watch our station and be the first to know!" In a way it's not the TV station's fault, because they have to cater to their audience in order to have viewers. But in another way, it's not like the reporters themselves are from a different world. When they leave their jobs to go home each day, they're part of the same culture as the rest of us.

One thing we all forget is that computer projections, whether they're meteorological or not, are still made in computers. Computers screw up, because they're made by people, and people have never been perfect. We don't have all the information necessary to feed the computers. We never did.

Nonetheless, most people don't know that, and/or can't understand that. There are a great number of people who see computers as infallible. The traditional news outlets are able to use "computer projections" to gain viewer interest, for now.

That gives us "Season forecasts." My question is, what is the average person supposed to DO with that information? If there's a big hurricane season predicted, is there something reasonable that Joe Homeowner should do, that he wouldn't normally do? Should he evacuate his oceanfront house in June, and return in December? That doesn't seem like "living" to me. He's going to end up in a casket sometime, somehow, no matter what. So, if the information doesn't help him truly live while he's alive, then it's just entertainment.

Those projections can lead to ill-preparedness. Let's say the experts predict a very quiet year for hurricanes, and they end up being right. Only two hurricanes form, but both of them reach cat-4 status and hit big cities in the mainland US. That's an expensive year for hurricane cleanup, but a light year for hurricanes overall.

Same for winter season forecasts: If the projections say to expect an easy season ahead, is it good to sit back and prepare less? If experts predict a hard winter, prepare more? I think people should forget the projections and prepare the same way, every year.

[Lakegeezer]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

That gives us "Season forecasts." My question is, what is the average person supposed to DO with that information?...
Same for winter season forecasts: If the projections say to expect an easy season ahead, is it good to sit back and prepare less? If experts predict a hard winter, prepare more? I think people should forget the projections and prepare the same way, every year.

The seasonal forecasts are useful for planning winter ski vacations. If the forecast says the west will have an early winter and early spring, it is best to plan to go out early. The forecasts may not be accurate, but are better than nothing when a decision has to be made. Even the short term forecasts are useful. My boat is still in the water, and I hope to get it out before a snowfall stretches the canvas. I follow the 6-10 and 10-14 day forecasts and, if the forecast is correct, will get another boat ride with temperatures in the 50's next week.