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#1 |
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This is the Official 2017 Ice-Out Thread. If you reply to this thread all of the information about this year's ice-out will be easily accessible to our forum friends.
I thought this thread was early last year on March 1 and here we are on February 27 watching the ice go out. The ice in front of my house on the broad side of Rattlesnake Island looks uneven and punky. Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. We love your pictures! The Ice-Out page is up at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/watch.htm. There you will find all of the Winnipesaukee WebCams to watch the ice melt as well as links to special ice out features such as Saunder's Bay daily picture with information about previous year's ice out. (I will post link when it is available.) Ice-out has occurred in recent years when the lake temperature is from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam. Today the temp is 35 degrees. (it was 38 on March 1 last year) Let's get on with our favorite activity ... Ice-Out! __________________ Island Girl
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Tomorrow and Thursday should cause some serious damage to the ice on the lake. Between the rain, the 60 degree temperature and the high winds, this is a perfect recipe to erase a lot of ice! Lets just hope the winds don't raise havoc with anyone's dock!
Dan
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#3 |
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The ice is getting gray, a sure sign of ice out coming early this year.
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View today from Scenic Road, near Ellacoya. Looking toward Welch. A bit less ice than seen in ishoot's photo from 2 days ago.
https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums...ad.php?t=21717 Alan |
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There must be damage done to the ice with all of this fog today. Just a beautiful picture.
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Anyone have a reliable way to get the water temperature? In the past, the water temperature has been a good indicator of impending ice-out. Once it went over 38 degrees, ice-out was usually shortly thereafter.
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#7 |
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Ice and whitecaps, view today from Belknap Point.
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I call the Winnipesaukee Data Phone. They report several data points including the Lake Temperature. I post that from time to time at www.rattlesnakecam.com/watch.htm.
I use this because it is what has been used for many years. Yesterday and todays temp was 37. The previous two days were 35, then 36. My recollection is that ice out happens at 39 or warmer. 603-527-0071 The lake temp is the last data point he reads right after the precipitaition. IG
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I would say we should be thickening the ice up over the next few days especially Fri-Sun highs teens/twenties, lows near zero.. The bays must still have good ice, it was definitely much better than last year
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Here is from Melvin Village
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Things have opened up a bit this afternoon.
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From Bear Island.. this opened up a lot today.
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#13 |
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Looking towards Rattlesnake and Sleepers:
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Long Island yesterday.
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I was very bored so I took a look at the 130 ice out dates and I came up with some interesting observations.
Not in any particular order Over the 130 years the average ice out is April 19th. The earliest ice out was in 2016 which occurred on March 18th The latest ice out was on 12 May in 1888 Ice out has occurred in March 5 times ( three of them in the last 7 years) Ice out has occurred in May 13 times, the most recent was in 2001 Ice out normally occurs in April, 112 times The latest ice out average for any ten-year period was the first ten years’ records were kept when it averaged ice out on April 26th. The earliest ice out average for any ten-year period is the last ten years when it has averaged ice out on April 11th. The latest ice out average for any twenty-year period was the first twenty years’ records were kept when it averaged ice out on April 23rd The earliest ice out average for any twenty-year period is the last twenty years when it has averaged ice out on April 13th. The all-time average ice out over 130 year is 19 April From 1888 to 1959 ice out average was on 19 April Since 1950 the ice out average is on 18 april Since 1960 the ice out average was on 18 April Since 1970 ice out average was on 17 April Since 1980 ice out average was on 15 April Since 1990 ice out average was on 14 April Since 2000 ice out average was on 13 April Since 2010 out ice average was on 8 April 2 times in the last 3 years, ice out has been later than the 19th of April the 130 year average. The other year was the earliest ice out ever. Not that it has anything to do with Lake Winne, but the ice on my farm pond in Northern Mass went out on Feb 27th last year which was the earliest I ever remember in the last 6o years This year it was out on Feb 26th |
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Welcome to the forum Jim. I guess that is was a slow day.
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The wind for the past few days has really been brutal! I have been watching these giant ice sheets go flying across the broads on a daily basis. These ice chunks have to end up somewhere. I hope everyone's docks downwind don't get too beat up!
Dan
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In spite of the cold, there is more open water visible form Belknap Point than 3 days ago. The wind won out.
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Beautiful crystal clear shot today...
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#20 |
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![]() Took a ride to check out Rattlesnake today and this is what we found!! |
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#22 |
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Looking Northeast, Shaw peak, Today 10:30
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Looking across to Bear/Pine from Sheps, on Saturday.
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Picture from broads side of Rattlesnake...I see more water out there in the distance!
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It looks like there is still a bob house off Long Island almost straight out from the lighthouse. See Trexler's webcam. I wonder if whatever is out there can even be retrieved at this point.
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The recent ice outs definitely suggest a warming trend-and this year will be no exception. Winters here have turned into a kind of blah more inconvenient mess than fun winter activities. NOT a political opinion just an objective dispassionate observation.
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Now the icebergs begin on the very windy day. Pray for no damage out three
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This is the view from the top of Gunstock Mountain yesterday afternoon. Not shown, the south end of Rattlesnake was open all the way to Ship and Moose Islands. The south side of the peninsula was open. As you can see the Broads were wide open. North side of Rattlesnake peninsula was cracking, as was Alton Bay.
In spite of weather forecast this weekend, it won't be long! |
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#29 |
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Here is the broads going out this morning from 7-9 am.
http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/IceOut2017-TheBroads.mp4 You can't stop Mother Nature! IG
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Great video, IG! The winds are fierce here today out of the northwest, as your video certainly shows.
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A lot more water showing off of Belknap Point today. Cold and very windy so I was a wimp and took the photo sitting in my truck. Looks like the wind caused the lake to tilt
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Almost all slush on the West side of Welch!!!
https://video.nest.com/clip/0dfe2032...6fc036682a.mp4 Dan
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My friends are launching a pontoon boat at Ames Farm as I type this and heading to Rattlesnake Island, Broad side. Watch for them on the web cams. They will be waving. Unfortunately, I could not go. We have always been on the island prior to official Ice Out, but not this year for me.
Looking forward to a long season on the lake. |
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To each their own I guess..... Dan
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No boat has gone my my cams yet. The saving grace today is it is dead calm. There are a lot of iceberg floating around. I hope they are very careful.
IG
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They made it out and sent a pic. No ice in sight. They would love to be stuck out there. They would crank up the fire and hunker down. It has happened to them before.
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WOW! That time lapse you posted on YouTube is awesome! Guess we'll have to do a flyover- don't see it refreezing soon.
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3/10/17 @5:10p. Ice as far as the eye can see.
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It's only +1 deg. here this morning but we have very strong, gusty wind out of the northwest. We're beginning to see some small areas of open water between the mainland (between Minge Cove and Smalls Cove) and Sleepers Island. Even those small areas of open water have whitecaps today, which eat away at the ice. Today's wind is no doubt putting intense pressure on the ice in this area. If that results in some major stress cracks, the wind could push it all to the southeast as we saw in Island Girl's excellent video of the ice going out on the Broads a few days ago.
You can watch this area of the lake change on the Echo Shores Webcam: http://echoshorescam.com/
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My lake cam took an unplanned vacation at the end of the year. But yesterday it surprised me by waking up and sending pics again.
Looks a long way from ice out from this view.... |
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For example, it was reported by local neighbors in 19 Mile Bay that there is still 18" of ice. And what happens with the ice when a major Northeaster dumps 2' of snow. I would expect it would be very difficult to snowmobile or even walk on the ice with water and slush below the snow. Our prediction for Ice out at 19 mile bay will be later than April 5th Reporting from Sarasota Florida. |
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Broads and all around Welch are actually starting to refreeze over the past couple cold days. I think at this point a March ice out probably will not happen...
Dan
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Thanks, Bill for the aerials. Definitely confirms what I saw happening yesterday. I have a time lapse that I need to upload which shows lots of icebergs float by my house, then it all jammed up.
Pretty cool! ![]() IG
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The ice is locked in between Welch and Fish (NW side). Open water farther North.
My lakeside camera is working again after being "reset" by the power outage yesterday. It's been AWOL since December. Really nice having it back (camera date and time is wrong). ![]() Last edited by welch-time; 03-20-2017 at 04:41 PM. |
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That looks like Stan's dock.
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![]() Quote:
http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/IceBackIn3-13-2017.mp4 www.rattlesnakecam.com/3-13-2017-IceBackIn.mp4 (faster version)
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Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade Last edited by Island Girl; 03-15-2017 at 09:26 AM. |
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It is. We I bought this camp last year (my wifes family owns the camp 4 houses down).
Sadly Stan passed a couple months ago. Last edited by welch-time; 03-18-2017 at 07:01 PM. |
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I am so sorry to hear about Stan. My late husband and I stayed at that camp in 1999 and 2000 before buying the place on Rattlesnake Island. Stan introduced us to the island in 1998. I met Stan in 1986. Great guy.
IG
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Yes he was. I always enjoyed his sense of humor. My wife introduced me to the island back in the 80's. She shared many a summer with Stan's daughters.
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will likely move ice out into April
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my view from Methodist cihttps://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=12813&stc=1&d=1489838176rcle.
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Anyone hazard a new guess at ice-out ?
The last cold snap seems to have locked up the lake again. |
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Based on the current forecast, it's looking to me like it will be a fairly "normal" ice-out. I.e., early to mid-April, slow and steady.
Solar gain at this time of year is strong, and temps during the days are usually above freezing. But the nights still drop into the 20's. So you get some melting during the day, and some cool down at night. But the water temp continues to slowly rise, and when it reaches 38-39, the melting from below takes over and it all breaks up. Baring a drastic change in the weather pattern, about 3 more weeks. |
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I've noticed we no longer have any cams in Alton Bay (one of the first areas to break up) and the Pine Island cams (which showed ice breaking up a few weeks back) all seem to be either off line, redirected or no longer on this site. Does anybody have any cams or recent pictures from these areas?
We had so much open water on the Broads and that seemed to slip back into winter with another ice coating. Hoping for warmer weather, rain and wind.... |
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Power is out on the north end of Bear so the bear cam is not working at the moment. That was a good vantage point that won't be back till power is restored. NHEC won't send guys out over the ice in it's current condition. I'm sure they will be out there soon as the ice is out.
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From Yesterday. Mount Washington very white in the distance.
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Happy first day of spring, let the melting proceed! -PIG |
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This is one scary ice ridge. I have never seen anything quite like this. Melt please!
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Happy to help flyguy! Thanks for your time and all the great ice-out photos.
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Strong wind pushing ice out from between Welch and Fish this morning, getting swept out into the Broads.
I expect it to be clear up to the breakwater by noon. ![]() some video here: https://youtu.be/NBxBFCNGqS4 Last edited by welch-time; 03-23-2017 at 02:52 PM. |
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This is looking north with the tip of Bear on the left. The wind hasn't had any impact on the ice here.
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The wind opened up the broads quite a bit today. That's Welch island on the left....
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And just like that...
![]() Last edited by welch-time; 03-23-2017 at 02:08 PM. |
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I took this shot last yesterday afternoon from the top of Gunstock. Broads re-opening and, although I didn't take a picture of it, there appears to be a hole opening south end of Rattlesnake Island.
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Lily Pond usually goes out about a week ahead of Winnie. Anyone know the status there? Great pictures and video's. Keep them coming.
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Just went by Lily Pond. Still ice covered.
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I guess my ice out prediction of March 24 is toast.
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Getting ready for winter! |
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Like this?
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SIKSUKR |
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Here's a photo from 380 feet in the air from above Rattlesnake toward Diamond and Welch at 12:30pm today (Saturday March 25th). Sorry for the water on the lens, it started sprinkling once I was out. I see what looks like open water by Welch.
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How did you get to Rattlesnake?
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Hey Doug, I flew my DJI Phantom 3 Pro (3 mile range) from the Rattlesnake launch (Glidden Cove) over to Rattlesnake and got the photo from there. I wanted to see how the broads were over there, lots of big cracks but not much open water there!
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I didn't take a photo yesterday, but the Broads were open north of Rattlesnake as of about 1 PM. some cracking around the peninsula on the island. We'll see what today brings.
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Unfortunately not much change from our vantage point...
Need Sun, Warm, and Wind -PIG |
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Tear up your March ice-out guesses; Lily Pond in Gilford is still iced in. 😁
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We flew Ice Patrol again today- no matter what it looks like from the shore, there is still a LOT of ice- and much of it where it re-froze. We'll have a full report as well as many new photos on our Ice-Out.com site by the weekend.
Also had fun doing a Facebook LIVE video broadcast from the plane! Pretty sure that's never been done before. While it did not come out great, it showed that there may be the possibility of a LIVE Ice-Out announcement when it happens! ![]() ![]() Last edited by flyguy; 03-29-2017 at 12:51 PM. Reason: added photo |
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I doubt it. The next week is going to be in the 40s every day with some rain. As the snow on top melts it's just going to drop more water on top of the ice. The top will get slushy, it probably won't be cold long enough for it to add more frozen surface to the top.
We do have some wind coming with the storm. That will also get stuff moving. We have a few weeks to go with or without the storm. |
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Here's a quick 30 second clip looking from the west side of Welch. As you can see everything still locked up tight all the way to Belknap Point, Lockes Island, Witches, Governors Island, Timber Island, Round Island. There are still people ice fishing Sanders Bay!
Going to be a while yet! https://video.nest.com/clip/0cb5eb43...f1e62b35c3.mp4 Dan
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Three dozen new aerial photos - taken yesterday- just posted to http://www.ice-out.com. Much of the lake that had thawed refroze over the last two weeks. Coves & harbors are still solid. Looking like the third week in April???
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