Ice in 2017/2018

[steve-on-mark]

and that is all!

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[Top-Water]

What is the status of the ice around the lake now, with all the recent cold weather? Any reports.

Any predictions on when the lake might have (safe / traditional) solid ice.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

I have ice forming around my docks and in the coves around Christmas Island. The water is at the majic number of 39 degrees. The 'flip' or 'lake turnover' occurs at this temperature and allows ice to form, albeit dependent on wind and other conditions. The ice I see on the bay has broken up each morning just after sunrise. It won't be long before weather conditions, decreased wind and frigid temps, support ice formation that lasts.
For anyone who wants to read more about 'the flip' this article provides good information on what's happening to the lake water on these last days of autumn.
http://onthelake.net/fishing/turnover.htm

[MAXUM]

It's nice that we seem to be in a more "seasonable" weather pattern thus far this year, let's hope it stays that way.

[DickR]

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

....
For anyone who wants to read more about 'the flip' this article provides good information on what's happening to the lake water on these last days of autumn.
http://onthelake.net/fishing/turnover.htm

I have to dispute a small part of that article, where it says:
"....The water that cools below that temperature, to 32 degrees, freezes and stays on the top, effectively capping the lake. It also stops further energy loss from the lake. Everything beneath the surface of the ice never gets any colder than 39 degrees Fahrenheit."

Energy loss from the lake does not stop with the formation of an ice layer on top. The idea that it does is actually refuted further down in the article:
"As winter approaches, the water that has now reached 39 degrees sinks to the bottom, allowing colder and less dense, buoyant water to remain at the surface to freeze. The ice thickens because it is not a good insulator; water in contact with the underside of the ice cools further and freezes, adding to the surface layer."

More ice cannot form without heat loss; the heat of fusion of water to ice is approximately 144 BTU/lb. As long as the ambient air is colder than the surface of the ice, there will be heat loss to the air by conduction, resulting in further ice formation for a while. However, while ice is not a good insulator, it does have limited thermal conductivity, as do all things. In terms of insulation value, the "R" value of the ice layer increases with thickness. With slow heat loss, both the water in contact with the lower surface of ice and that ice surface itself are in equilibrium, at 32 F. Thus there would be a temperature gradient, from 32 F at the lower surface down to whatever the upper surface exposed to the air is, except that the air temperature keeps changing up and down. Still, as ice thickens, so does the layer's insulation value, slowing down the rate of heat loss and retarding the rate of formation of more ice. Ultimately, the rate of further heat loss approaches the rate of heat gained by conduction from warmer water below, and the ice cannot get thicker without the air temperature getting even colder. With sufficiently cold air for a long enough time, a very shallow body of water can freeze entirely to the bottom. As spring approaches, the process reverses, and conduction of heat from below the ice melts from the bottom up, in addition to surface melting from warmer air.

As to that part about water below the ice never getting colder than 39 F, while the most dense water, at at about that 39 F, settles to the bottom, water between that and the bottom surface of the ice can be progressively cooler and thus less dense, and in the vicinity of that bottom surface it must decrease to precisely 32 F, the freezing point, where liquid and solid forms of water are in thermal equilibrium.

BTW, the area between Long Island and the end of Moultonborough Neck mostly froze over toward daybreak today and consolidated to a mostly unbroken sheet of ice wall to wall. The very thin coating of snow flurries confirmed that late today.

[fatlazyless]

Supposedly, one can survive for up to 90-minutes in 34-degree water, deep over their head, as long as you have a pfd or flotation like a home made foam noodle belt to keep their head above water and remain relatively not-in-a-panic. You know .... just chill in place, while you float in the icy cold water and gather up your strength to ice pick your way up onto safety, and be happy you actually have a loud whistle with you to use.

I've also read that in the first ten minutes, your hands and arms start to freeze up, and you lose your ability to use your hands effectively.

Supposedly, the key to surviving icy cold water is to not panic and to maintain a positive attitude ........ like, if you think you can do it ..... then you can survive.

Wasn't there a song all about this named 'I will survive!' by Diana Ross?

[Top-Water]

Thanks all for the meaningful and informative replies about the status of the ice.

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Wasn't there a song all about this named 'I will survive!' by Diana Ross?

1978 Gloria Gaynor ‎– I Will Survive

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Supposedly, one can survive for up to 90-minutes in 34-degree water over their head as long as they have a pfd or floatation like a foam noodle belt to keep their head above water.

Supposedly, the key to surviving icy cold water is to not panic and to maintain a positive attitude ........ like, if you think you can do it ..... then you can survive.

Wasn't there a song all about this named 'I will survive!' by Diana Ross?

Let's test your theory go jump in the lake with a $2.00 noodle belt made from junk bought at Walmart on in 35 degree water, I'll be more than happy to stand on shore and provide moral support to keep your attitude positive as you freeze to death. Where would you like your personalized Darwin award sent?

[phoenix]

we would miss FLL

[fatlazyless]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Let's test your theory go jump in the lake with a $2.00 noodle belt made from junk bought at Walmart on in 35 degree water, I'll be more than happy to stand on shore and provide moral support to keep your attitude positive as you freeze to death. Where would you like your personalized Darwin award sent?

Well.....not all foam noodles are equally well made .....it's pretty easy to examine the density and strength of the foam.....and do some comparison shopping. The local Walmart stores seem to have very good quality foam noodles, $3-4-6, in three different diameters, and are totally out of stock now, for the winter. For a wearable swimmer's belt, the thinnest $3 noodle probably is best because it is most pliable, and fits tight around the waist.

What really makes the noodle work so well, is threading a 3/8 or 1/2" diameter, strong line, down thru the center hole which makes it into a noodle belt that can be trimmed to an individual's waist size. Tie it off with square knot, and it should fit snug around the waist, under a winter coat.

These work good for swimming positioned at the waist, or for treading water, with the noodle belt easily re-positioned up under the armpits without having to untie the knot. Probably want to experiment with different line to find one that makes a secure and easy to tie square knot.

[Lakegeezer]

Moultonboro Bay Inlet is frozen across and people are walking near the shoreline in spots. If it lasts, a record early ice-in for many years.

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Well.....not all foam noodles are equally well made .....it's pretty easy to examine the density and strength of the foam.....and do some comparison shopping. The local Walmart stores seem to have very good quality foam noodles.

Good call! Spend 10 on gas riding around to save $2 on a noodle. Please post pictures of you doing the flotation and density tests in front of your Meredith estate in February.

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Good call! Spend 10 on gas riding around to save $2 on a noodle. Please post pictures of you doing the flotation and density tests in front of your Meredith estate in February.

I'm more than willing to sponsor the test. Just tell me where to send the monies and or gift cards.

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

Moultonboro Bay Inlet is frozen across and people are walking near the shoreline in spots. If it lasts, a record early ice-in for many years.

Thanks for the info. Would really love to see an early "ice in" this year too.

[MAXUM]

[fatlazyless]

(thanks button) ...click! ...... except I would be wearing a Speedo