Ice-Out Watch 2006

[Diamond Isle]

DBA, Can you see if the ice looks safe from the Gilford side to get onto Diamond - or do I wait a week and take a boat?? Thanks for the pics showing Diamond - that's the side we are on!

[Lakegeezer]

We went by Center Harbor today and there are still cars, and even a camping trailer, on the ice. In M'boro bay, the ice pushed up on the rocks is solid and about 1 foot thick. Where there are cracks, its about 6" thick. So still safe in many spots - we have a ways to go before ice-out.

[Island Girl]

The north, north east side of Diamond is completely open water. I just went for a walk with DBA to look.

Amazing as it may seem... we are watching the ice melt. The big open area off Diamond has large white caps which are beating against the ice line and coming this way (Rattlesnake Island).

There are lots of very wet gray areas that we expect to see open up today or tomorrow.

Coming out on the ice boat.. it broke throught the ice a few times. The ice was quite thin in some areas...and getting punky.

It's coming folks!!! Get those boats ready.

IG

[Merrymeeting]

The last few years the magic water temp seems to be about 38 degrees. It's rising fast and the weather over the next few days won't slow it down any.

I hope folks plan on getting those vehicles and bob houses off the ice this weekend.

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

The last few years the magic water temp seems to be about 38 degrees. It's rising fast and the weather over the next few days won't slow it down any.

It would seem that the Lake is approaching the magic number:

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/tempcal/index.cgi

[Rattlesnake Gal]

For those who were not present for last year’s ice-out fun, here is a recap of my water temperature and ice-out correlation:
(With last year's numbers added.)

RG's 4/8/05 post

Here are the water temps preceding and at the time of ice-out.
Not sure of they have any value to anyone, but it kept me busy for a few minutes.

April 20th 2005 – 41 degrees two days before ice-out. (No recorded temps on 19th – 23rd. )

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 10th – 11 days to ice-out.

April 20th 2004 - 42 degrees at ice-out.

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 10th – 11 days to ice-out.

April 25th 2003 - 40 degrees at ice-out.

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 19th – 7 days to ice-out.

April 5th 2002 - 41 degrees the day after ice-out.

Temperature hit 38 degrees (Doesn’t show 39) on March 28th – 8 days to ice-out.

May 2nd 2001 - 45 degrees at ice-out.

Temperature hit 39 degrees on April 24th – 9 days to ice-out.

No water temperatures for the preceding years.

http://webarchive.unionleader.com/ar...?article=53381 (April 15, 2005 article)

[Island Girl]

Thanks RG for the correlation.. I had about 41 degrees in my mind based on past years... Now if only we knew what the temp was in 1921 at ice-out!

[Quilt Lady]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Now if only we knew what the temp was in 1921 at ice-out!

How about we go with "Dr. Who" (Sci-fi Channel Fri.@ 9PM) in his time machine (Tardis) and take our own readings! The only problem is that he never ends up where he thinks he's going! Ultimate Road Trip!!!

[Mee-n-Mac]

Originally Posted by Quilt Lady

How about we go with "Dr. Who" (Sci-fi Channel Fri.@ 9PM) in his time machine (Tardis) and take our own readings! The only problem is that he never ends up where he thinks he's going! Ultimate Road Trip!!!

I don't think we can use 1921 as an indicator for ice-out purposes. It's been said that there was some Dalek plot to heat up the Earth that year. Can't say I've followed the good Dr much since Tom Baker (#4) left. Hopefully this incarnation is a good one Since BSG is on hiatus, I'm thinking this will be the new Friday night taping.

FWIW : http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php...&o=0&fpart=all

http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php...b=5&o=0&fpart=

ps - maybe Misty Blue will quiz us on what a tardis is ?

[Merrymeeting]

There is a very small retention pond near my house that I always use as my personal barometer for lake ice-out. It is usually about 2 weeks ahead of the lakes.

I was out of town for a few days. When I left on Sunday, it was still mostly ice with melting on the edges. When I returned yesterday, it was completely ice-free and the ducks who return to it for a brief time each Spring were swimming around. This morning it was skimmed over with a thin layer of ice once again.

With the cold weather of the next few days, I'm sticking with my early April forecast.

[Bizer]

I was looking at Don's Ice-out page. For those of us that like statistics:

Historicly, for the past 119 years, the average ice-out date has been April 20th with a standard deviation of 9 days.

For 285 guesses for the 2006 ice-out contest:

• The average date was April 9th
• The standard deviation was 10 days
• Nobody guessed May even though ice-out has occasionally occurred in May.
• 28 people (10%) guessed that the 2006 ice-out would occur before March 28th, the earliest ice-out on record.

[mcdude]

Nice Monet-like shot of sunset over the ice from Snake-Eyes tonight...

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

...Amazing as it may seem... we are watching the ice melt. ...
IG

It amazes me how much ice has melted this week. I wish I had taken a picture on Tuesday looking up the Merrymeeting River from the Rte 11 bridge. The river was solid ice at that point.

Here is a shot from 3-10-06:



And here it is on 03-11.



And the ice is out to the end of Downing's and Gillan's docks already!!!

[ghfromaltonbay]

Great shots showing what a difference 24 hours can make. You're making me homesick. Hopefully I can make the forum fest in 2 weeks for my NH and lobster roll fix. Save one for me, Pepper. It's a long way from Joisey, but worth the trip.

[RLW]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

It's coming folks!!! Get those boats ready.

IG

If I remember correctly, you were one of the many that was doing the snow dance just a few weeks ago so we could have a bed race. Gee, what a few warm days do to some people more especially when the ice shows signs of melting like yesterday and today.

[JTA]

Island Girl ... how about a picture of this ice boat that you are traveling around in?
I'm curious (and jealous?).

[Lakegeezer]

Originally Posted by JTA

Island Girl ... how about a picture of this ice boat that you are traveling around in?
I'm curious (and jealous?).

Is this one of the hovercraft gang? Four or five went by today.

[Island Girl]

Originally Posted by JTA

Island Girl ... how about a picture of this ice boat that you are traveling around in?
I'm curious (and jealous?).

I usually ride in a different boat, but here is today's ride. Somewhere in photopost, Lakegirl has a picture of the other one.

[DBA]

Hi to all the Ice Out Fans out there....
Just a reminder that the http://www.Rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm has updated pictures and webcams daily. Thanks to Upthesaukee for the latest pictures on the ice status there. The temps today were instrumental in changing the color, quality and "wetness" of today's ice. One of my late afternoon pictures today shows how much water has been absorbed by the ice. The next two days with their warmer temps and possible rain will help to further dissolve that ice barrier.
Here's to the earliest ice out ever!
DBA

[DRH]

That ice looks like it's ready to melt away anytime now! Thanks for the great shots from the northwest part of Rattlesnake, DBA.

[upthesaukee]

Here's a few pics besides what was posted on ice out today.

First is a shot from the town docks looking at the gazebo. Notice the debris left behind by bobhouses in the middle right and also just in front of the gazebo. Today's on-ice debris = tomorrow's boating hazard .



And here's a shot of the boat ramp. Notice the water coming right up to where vehicle go on and off, and notice the open water on the Shibley side. (truck did not go on the ice).



And a bob house off Sandy Point. Looks like open water around it!



and finally, more bobhouse out by Echo Point and also over on the Loon Cove side. The dot to the left of the bob house at Echo point is actually a snowmobile crossing the bay very slowly.



In those immortal words..."Th-th-th-tha-tha-that's all, folks!!!!"

[KBoater]

Can anyone get a picture of the Wolfeboro town docks ice conditions? I miss the WolfeCam.

[RI Swamp Yankee]

Originally Posted by FLboater

Can anyone get a picture of the Wolfeboro town docks ice conditions? I miss the WolfeCam.

Here is one I took Feb 22, there wasn't much ice then, I expect less now.
Wolfeboro Town Docks

[JK47]

Does anyone know what the earliest ice out ever recorded is? It will be interesting to see if this year is competitive for the title...

[Island Girl]

Here is the list http://www.winnipesaukee.com/iceout.htm

[JK47]

Thanks, IG. It looks like March 28 is the date to beat. That's only two weeks away...

[ghfromaltonbay]

Usually they say that ice out occurs a week after the ice disappears from Lily Pond. Has anyone been by there lately?

[upthesaukee]

Went by there yesterday. No activity on the pond, still ice covered, but not looking all that safe, which is probably why no one was on the ice...duhhhhhh David!!!!

[DBA]

You are right on Resident 2B! We have left Rattlesnake Island as of about noon today (in the pouring rain) rather than stay and experience the winds that are predicted. I am also expecting some dock damage unless the winds just break the ice completely.

When we came across in the airboat today, the ice was firm enough to hold us most of the way. The western end of Rattlesnake was icebergs and open water. The rest of the trip was firm ice. It cracked under the weight, but it held. The rain will help and the winds will chew it up.

So sorry to say there will be no more daily picture postings from Rattlesnake. We expect there to be water by the time we will be returning (2 weeks).

Thanks for all the wonderful comments and we'll see you at the Forum Fest!
DBA

[Resident 2B]

DBA,

Thanks for the great photos and good luck with your dock. Hopefully the wind will break it into small pieces.

I just do not have a good feeling about this.

R2B

[Diamond Isle]

Originally Posted by DBA

So sorry to say there will be no more daily picture postings from Rattlesnake. We expect there to be water by the time we will be returning (2 weeks).

Thanks for all the wonderful comments and we'll see you at the Forum Fest!
DBA

I just wanted to say thanks for the great pictures around Diamond, sure beats the 30 mile drive over there! Looks like it's time to cut the shrinkwrap and get the boat ready!

[Weirs guy]

Originally Posted by ghfromaltonbay

Usually they say that ice out occurs a week after the ice disappears from Lily Pond. Has anyone been by there lately?

I thought the airports new runway lights screwed that up?

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by FLboater

Can anyone get a picture of the Wolfeboro town docks ice conditions? I miss the WolfeCam.

Here you go!!!! Not often I get over that way with a camera...today was one of those days, and the weather cleared off before I got there (rained this morning).

Enjoy!!



Ice is not that far out from the docks. You might get a better look in the gallery:

Here's that link: http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...php?photo=9026

[Island Girl]

The ice around Rattlesnake, Sleeper's, Cub and Treasure Islands has deteriorated much in the last 24 hours. It is very pourous and weak in most places. The airboat broke through the ice around the tip of Rattlesnake and was breaking the ice in others. That grey color that indicated punky ice is everywhere with a lot of very very wet places.

As you can see from DBA and Upthesaukee's ice out pictures there is a lot more open water.

We could literally watch the ice melt!

Stay tuned...
www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

[emailmannh]

The jetski you saw in Weirs Bay last year was not me. I generally put in on Alton Bay because ice out is earlier there. It looks like ice out will be in other parts of the lake this year. Some of these pictures are unbelievable for this time in March. Should be on the water on or before April 1st!

[Weirs guy]

man, at this rate you may be on the lake tomorrow. we lost an awful lot of ice this weekend, and now the flows are starting. I'd guess its 2 or 3 weeks ahead of last year.

[JK47]

Are my eyes decieving me, or is this all water in the foreground?

[Orion]

That's all water....It was almost half water most of the season.....water to the left and ice to the right, but now all water. Get them boats ready!

[Zee]

I was amazed to see five bob houses still on 19 Mile Bay last evening. All bob houses are off Winter Harbor, Wolfeboro Bay and 20 Mile Bay. There was still one trailer out on Center Harbor on Saturday evening. It looked like one wheel was sunk down in the ice. The ice is turning dark everywhere, I sure hope they get them off in the next couple of days. Wolfeboro Bay has a lot of open water. I think we are still two weeks away from ice out but that is still real early. Time enough to wax up the boat.

[Resident 2B]

It looks like it will be turning cooler in a few days, but the wind will be up and stay up for about a week. Although it will be cold at night, the wind should keep working on the ice, so it is looking like a early April ice out to me.

Time will tell, but all the signs I know are pointing to that time frame. Ice out usually happens two to three weeks after the water gets to 36 degrees and that happened a few days ago. If you look at the Silver Sand's web site and go backwards from past ice-out dates to what the ice looks like today, you also get this time frame.

One concern I have is with even more ice damage to docks. There was a lot of open water and area where the ice got think. If the wind breaks the ice up into large chunks which is likely and these large chunks get driven by the wind across the open water onto shore, there will be a lot of momentium when these "mini-icebergs" strike land and docks. I hopeI am wrong on this, but it is looking more possible every day.

R2B

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Diamond Isle

DBA, Can you see if the ice looks safe from the Gilford side to get onto Diamond - or do I wait a week and take a boat?? Thanks for the pics showing Diamond - that's the side we are on!

As of this morning the entire area between Ames Farm and Diamond Island is open water. In fact, the open water area goes almost all the way to Rattlesnake. We've had gusty winds for four consecutive days now and the open water area by Diamond had white caps this morning.

[Steveo]

If you want to see sonmething really cool check out the Weirs cam and watch it clear in front of your eyes

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Can you add sound to a webcam?

[Steveo]

That would be cool too. Weirscam has the live video feed now so you can actually see it move. I am watching the Abekee live feed also to see it that big ice flow will head there next.

[wildwoodfam]

Anyone know when they'll start fly overs to do the real checks? Would be great to start seeing the progression of the lake from above. Oh and a Happy St Patrick's Day to ya!

[DRH]

We drove past Lily Pond this afternoon and it now has some areas of open water.

Also, the open water area between Belknap Point and Ellacoya State Park is huge now.

[Cal]

I just saw the Weirs cam and all the ice is GONE....WOW that was quick

[Resident 2B]

I was up at the lake last night and earlier today. Last night, the ice was making some deep groans so I knew something was up.

Early this morning, you could see the ice that was in front of the Weirs breaking away from the ice that covers Meredith Bay as the wind was blowing fairly strongly from the west-northwest. Once seperation was complete, the ice really started to move towards Governor's Island. Then, the wind shifted more northerly and it directed the ice towards the shore across from the Weirs. When I left, it had stopped moving, or slowed down a lot, due to engaging the breakwaters protecting the docks in that area.

The size of this is huge! It is at least a ten acres in area perhaps larger. If it wasn't for the stone breakwaters, the docks would not have a chance. If the wind shifts more westerly as it is forecasted to do, and this thing gets away from the shore and gets moving again, watch out!

It is amazing the tempature at the Weirs was in the mid 20s as this was happening. Many will think the ice melted. In this case, it is still ice, it just moved.

R2B

[Paugus Bay Resident]

I was driving down Cherry Valley this afternoon and was surprised by the amount of open water (over the last week). I'm sure the nasty, irritating, not welcome winds have something to do with it. I'll take some pictures from that vantage next week.

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by Paugus Bay Resident

I was driving down Cherry Valley this afternoon and was surprised by the amount of open water (over the last week). I'm sure the nasty, irritating, not welcome winds have something to do with it. I'll take some pictures from that vantage next week.

And as I was coming home from the Alton Masonic Breakfast Buffet this morning, I snapped these two pictures of Merrymeeting River and the end of Alton Bay with new ice forming due to the cold temps. Current temp as I type this is 21 degrees, with a low of 17 forecasted. I would expect more ice to form overnight .

Here is the river:



And the bay:



If you go to the gallery, you can click on the picture and get a larger view showing the ice a little more clearly, especially on the river shot.

The good news: after Monday, the first day of spring by the way, the high temps for the next week will run between 37 and 45 degrees. The bad news: lows are forecasted below freezing each night during the same period.

[RLW]

Upthesaukee, is that signs of rebuilding in your picture of Downings gas dock? It looks as if I can see some new 2 by stock piled up and a few of the bumper blocks removed?
I don't believe the cold nites will hurt any as the sun is high enough during the days to remove ANYTHING the nites put on the lake/river.

[Merrymeeting]

Looks like we'll have status quo for awhile. Melting during the day, refreezing at night.

I couldn't believe it when I saw people on the ice on the Pine Island cam yesterday. Hopefully the ice is still safe out there.

On another note, anyone know what it is on the ice just to the right of the tree in the Pine Island cam? It's been there most of the winter.

[Pine Island Guy]

On another note, anyone know what it is on the ice just to the right of the tree in the Pine Island cam? It's been there most of the winter.

We were wondering that too, but found out on our walk a few weeks ago with Misty Blue that it's a raft that must have broken loose last fall...

Also was surprised to see people out on the ice over the weekend... the new Pine Island South Cam shows a lot of open water in the area these days... http://mysite.verizon.net/pineisland/PineIslandGuy2.jpg

cheers!

PIG

[Loon E. Tunes]

Thanks for the new cam site Pine Island Guy!!! That would have come in very handy last weekend when I was walking out to Three Mile. Found a safe approach from Leavitt Park though. The ice seemed to be pretty thick with some pickup trucks out on the ice!

[trfour]

Hi Pine Island Guy,

I noticed the Moxie bottle over there on the railing behind the Ice Out speedomeater, on the left in this clip. When does the recycle truck get by over there?

Reason for asking is, would'nt want that bottle to get blown into the Lake.

Back in the day, I did some bare foot'in, would'nt want to stub my toe on it. .... course, I still got rounded shoulders, from where my butt hit me after a crash or two, while learning!!

Anyway, I'm a big fan of all the webcams and just wanted to thank you for yours.
T.

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by trfour

I noticed the Moxie bottle over there on the railing behind the Ice Out speedomeater...

If you take another and closer look, that Moxie may be a bottle of home brew

That ability and the label were mentioned in a prior thread, past my memory span, though - a search might do the trick.

[trfour]

Thats okay GWC,


I'm always mindful of potential site sponsors. I just thought Moxie had a better ring to it, than Kelcy's 150 proof shine.

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by RLW

Upthesaukee, is that signs of rebuilding in your picture of Downings gas dock? It looks as if I can see some new 2 by stock piled up and a few of the bumper blocks removed?
I don't believe the cold nites will hurt any as the sun is high enough during the days to remove ANYTHING the nites put on the lake/river.

If you check out this link:

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...t&limit=recent

That will show the large version of the picture. It is indeed stacks of wood that I guess will be used to repair the docks. Downing's docks appear to have suffered from some ice damage this winter. Hopefully they can get it fixed before opening day of fishing season.