"Social Distancing" at the Lake

[Susie Cougar]

Andromeda321, how long are they closing down for?

[Andromeda321]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

Andromeda321, how long are they closing down for?

Right now all regular activity at my work (visits, travel, gatherings over 25, etc) are suspended through April 30, with the understanding that it can of course be longer.

[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by Andromeda321

Right now all regular activity at my work (visits, travel, gatherings over 25, etc) are suspended through April 30, with the understanding that it can of course be longer.

As important as these closings are, I can’t help but feel sorry for the people who will be affected the most, the hourly workers who do not have sick pay or vacation pay or any time to use. Food-service workers are going to be hit very hard by this. All those workers in all those school cafeterias. So many people live from paycheck to paycheck anyway, I’m not sure what people are supposed to do in a situation like this.

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

So many people live from paycheck to paycheck anyway, I’m not sure what people are supposed to do in a situation like this.

You asked the question.

A : Create government nanny state program (slash) feel good legeslation and everything will be fine.

[Overlake97]

“LONDON (Reuters) - At least one in five people worldwide were infected with swine flu during the first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, an international research group said on Friday, but the death rate was just 0.02 percent.” COVID-19’s mortality rate looks to be around 3%, overall; higher for people over 65 (not sure of that number).

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Overlake97

“LONDON (Reuters) - At least one in five people worldwide were infected with swine flu during the first year of the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, an international research group said on Friday, but the death rate was just 0.02 percent.” COVID-19’s mortality rate looks to be around 3%, overall; higher for people over 65 (not sure of that number).

While at the moment those numbers may be accurate at the outset of H1N1 the mortality rate being observed was reported to be in a similar range as well but as time went on and it ran it's due course the actual numbers were far from that. In fact I recall where it was first observed the mortality rate was very high. It's all in how accurate the sampling is, as already noted by several doctors I have seen interviewed who appear to be interested in spreading fact not fear, many cases will be mild and as such may not be identified as COVID-19. Instead it seems quite plausible the numbers are skewed now because nobody has an accurate count of how many actually are infected or recovered.

It would be nice if there was more responsible reporting on this. Not to downplay the threat, but to put context to it. That way the focus can be placed on protecting those who's lives really do depend on protection from it. We are NOT in the midst of a Zombie Apocalypse as many would like you to believe.

[Top-Water]

My son who works in a hospital operating room in southern new hampshire said it best last night on our way out to dinner last evening.

I wish the talking heads that are not qualified to speak about the issuse would just shut up. ............ we can't even do elective surgery anymore. Way to much misinformation.

Originally Posted by MAXUM

It would be nice if there was more responsible reporting on this. Not to downplay the threat, but to put context to it. That way the focus can be placed on protecting those who's lives really do depend on protection from it. We are NOT in the midst of a Zombie Apocalypse as many would like you to believe.

[MAXUM]

When you have politicians pontificating about xenophobia, as if that is relevant to the situation at hand, it's pretty clear we are not in grave danger from this virus, we are in grave danger because the people who are in placed in a position of authority are completely and utterly incompetent.

For once it would be nice to see the political posturing to stop and the entire country band together and address this like adults. Fact is a virus has no concept of race or political persuasion.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

While at the moment those numbers may be accurate at the outset of H1N1 the mortality rate being observed was reported to be in a similar range as well but as time went on and it ran it's due course the actual numbers were far from that. In fact I recall where it was first observed the mortality rate was very high. It's all in how accurate the sampling is, as already noted by several doctors I have seen interviewed who appear to be interested in spreading fact not fear, many cases will be mild and as such may not be identified as COVID-19. Instead it seems quite plausible the numbers are skewed now because nobody has an accurate count of how many actually are infected or recovered.

It would be nice if there was more responsible reporting on this. Not to downplay the threat, but to put context to it. That way the focus can be placed on protecting those who's lives really do depend on protection from it. We are NOT in the midst of a Zombie Apocalypse as many would like you to believe.

This is completely reasonable, and it's critical that we have responsible reporting. But a central problem here is that it is extraordinarily difficult to predict or even understand exponential growth. So when we see something dangerous growing exponentially, it is responsible to sound the alarm.

Here's a bit of fun to illustrate the exponential growth problem--take a sheet of paper and fold it in half. Then fold it half again (so that the sheet is now 1/4 of it's original size and 4 sheets thick). Then fold it in half again, and again...Assuming we could fold the paper in half 40 times and then sit it on the a table, how tall would the stack be?

A beer on my porch in June awaits the first reasonably close guesser.

[AC2717]

Can someone give an update on the ground thaw? I want to turn my water on and get started a lot earlier than normal this year

[MAXUM]

2^(40) - 1

It's a big number! I just don't have a calculator handy to do this math.

[Top-Water]

Not solve-able ........ you did not include the thickness of the paper. So how can you figure it out how tall it is.

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

how tall would the stack be?

[Mr. V]

Seems pretty simple to me.

People who don't care whether or not they contract the virus can blithely not practice "social distancing," whereas those who must avoid it due to underlying health problems or those who simply don't want to catch the flu will practice it.

Your choice.

Life free or try.

[MAXUM]

Depends on if you are looking for an actual measurement of thickness versus how many layers would be created as a result.

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Depends on if you are looking for an actual measurement of thickness versus how many layers would be created as a result.

Now you talking like Bill Clinton trying to figure out what the defenition of is, is.


There is a solution to FlyingScot question but it has to be written correctly with all the necesarry data in order to be solved.

[Susie Cougar]

.1*2(40)=
109,951,162,778
I am assuming that the paper is .1 mm thick.

[Susie Cougar]

I wrote the formula wrong.

2^40x.1=
Same answer
109,951,162,778

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

.1*2(40)=
109,951,162,778
I am assuming that the paper is .1 mm thick.

If you fold it 42 times it would reach the moon and a little more at 1mm thick

-----------------------
Edit at work most of us agree its .0023 - .0025 inches thick is the averrage in inches. I think most paper is graded in {bonds}

[Descant]

Folding paper is an old bar bet. You can't fold it more than 8 times. Put your beer down and try it. Get a bigger piece of paper and try again. Now, give your credit card to the bartender. You lost twice.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Descant

Folding paper is an old bar bet. You can't fold it more than 8 times. Put your beer down and try it. Get a bigger piece of paper and try again. Now, give your credit card to the bartender. You lost twice.

But the question said Assuming we could fold the paper in half 40 times

[Susie Cougar]

Riverside Elementary School is holding an election to determine the new school color. 5/8 of the votes are for blue, 5/9 of the remaining votes are for green, and the remaining 48 votes are red. How many votes were for blue?

Do you like this question better? My daughter sent it to me a couple of weeks ago. She couldn’t figure it out. It’s fifth grade math.

[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

Riverside Elementary School is holding an election to determine the new school color. 5/8 of the votes are for blue, 5/9 of the remaining votes are for green, and the remaining 48 votes are red. How many votes were for blue?

Do you like this question better? My daughter sent it to me a couple of weeks ago. She couldn’t figure it out. It’s fifth grade math.

I'm sorry to interrupt .... one little short moment........... but the best one on the forum was the one about Sea-Level - Water Level and what you can or could see from Alton To Center Harbor.

Now back to Susie's question.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

Riverside Elementary School is holding an election to determine the new school color. 5/8 of the votes are for blue, 5/9 of the remaining votes are for green, and the remaining 48 votes are red. How many votes were for blue?



Do you like this question better? My daughter sent it to me a couple of weeks ago. She couldn’t figure it out. It’s fifth grade math.

180


Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Susie Cougar]

Good job, gillygirl!

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

Good job, gillygirl!

Crap, I've had enough math through my years that if I didn't get it, I'd get checked for early onset dementia.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[DickR]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Riverside Elementary School is holding an election to determine the new school color. 5/8 of the votes are for blue, 5/9 of the remaining votes are for green, and the remaining 48 votes are red. How many votes were for blue?

180

Yes, you are correct, but any good teacher will subtract a few points for not showing the work. So, for the rest out there:

5/8 went for blue, leaving 3/8 for something else. 5/9 of that 3/8 went for green, leaving (4/9) x (3/8) = 0.1666666... (or 1/6) for the remainder,who went red. That 48 is 1/6 of 288, and the original 5/8 of 288 went blue, or 180.

[FlyingScot]

Nice work, Susie and Top Water! A couple of beers, or 4, or 8 or 16 or...are available for collection on my porch in June.

So like the folding paper--if the virus doubles 2 or 4 or 10 times, the whole thing will be seen as overblown--as Major and others have opined. But if it keeps doubling, we're really screwed, and we will have wished we did even more to slow the spread.

[Susie Cougar]

This is a whole lot more fun than talking about the coronavirus.