It's gonna be a long winter...

[map]

Our last delivery was in March. Still haven’t put the heat on amazingly. Propane tanks 2/100 gallon) are at 40. We have a well insulated new constructed cottage - only 1100 square feet.

We normally don’t use enough propane to get deals and we never lock in prices because we usually do better not locking in, but our residents in our HOA
Community worked out a deal with Rymes for everyone to get something like $2.40 ? per gallon this year (something like that).

For the first time I am glad we locked in.

[TiltonBB]

In a previous home I had three 330 gallon oil tanks installed in the basement. Every year, in July, I called around to get the best cash price to fill them. It was always comforting in February as the price of oil was high, to know I had plenty of oil at a low price.

The current Gilford house operates on propane but I would think increasing capacity and filling during the summer would be a big savings too. I have been too lazy to look into it. Yet.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

In a previous home I had three 330 gallon oil tanks installed in the basement. Every year, in July, I called around to get the best cash price to fill them. It was always comforting in February as the price of oil was high, to know I had plenty of oil at a low price.

The current Gilford house operates on propane but I would think increasing capacity and filling during the summer would be a big savings too. I have been too lazy to look into it. Yet.

Two thoughts come to mind. Are there regulations about limits on propane storage in residential zones? Do you own the tank, or does the dealer? If the dealer, will they give you a second tank so they can charge you less?

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Descant

Two thoughts come to mind. Are there regulations about limits on propane storage in residential zones? Do you own the tank, or does the dealer? If the dealer, will they give you a second tank so they can charge you less?

I had a 500 gallon buried tank that I purchased at a previous house. This allowed me to use whomever I wanted for fills.

[MeredithMan]

...filled up the car today for the first time in several weeks. $4.12 per gallon for premium at the Irving/Circle K near us in Goffstown. What the hell??

[tummyman]

Elections really do have consequences....every single day in every way !

[John Mercier]

Really nothing to do with the election.
US Oil production is up, demand is just up a lot more than production.

US output was 10.5M/day last October, and 11.3M this October.
The EIA estimates that we will be over 12M next year, and return to record production in 2023. But historically investors have found them to be a bit conservative in their forward forecasting.

Americans could lower their demand, but personally, I don't think the price is high enough to see actual changes in US consumption.

[Sue Doe-Nym]

I have to disagree with part of what you claim. We were energy independent prior to January 20 of this year, and now we are not. Should I continue?

[John Mercier]

The claims are documented.
The highest crude oil output was 13M/day during 2019 before the pandemic.
We haven't returned to that level... at least in production... but we have seen demand return. On average, US daily consumption is around 19M/day

For NG, the charts also show us at the highest production in US history, but we are also at the highest level of export in US history.

''Since mid-September 2020, wholesale propane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, the main U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) hub, increased to an average of $1.33 per gallon (gal) during the week ending September 24, 2021, the highest weekly average since February 2014. Wholesale propane prices have increased because of high international demand and low global propane supply. The United States exported an average of 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of propane in the first half of 2021, 100,000 b/d more than in the first half of 2020, despite relatively flat production and domestic consumption.''

So depending on how it is measured, the US is still energy independent, we just export more of our hydrocarbon output than we ever have before.

The flat production in natural gas should follow the increased production in crude oil, as higher prices create incentive to produce.
More wells being profitable at these escalated price levels.

How much will stay in the US? Hard to say.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Really nothing to do with the election.

US Oil production is up, demand is just up a lot more than production.



US output was 10.5M/day last October, and 11.3M this October.

The EIA estimates that we will be over 12M next year, and return to record production in 2023. But historically investors have found them to be a bit conservative in their forward forecasting.



Americans could lower their demand, but personally, I don't think the price is high enough to see actual changes in US consumption.

I call BS. In this case the election had everything to do with it. You cannot defend the current administration or blame the prior for this mess.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I call BS. In this case the election had everything to do with it. You cannot defend the current administration or blame the prior for this mess.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

It has nothing to do with either.
Production and demand are a part of the private sector capitalism.
When demand outstrips supply, prices rise until demand and supply come back into balance.

Capitalism - not politics - reigns supreme.

[tummyman]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

It has nothing to do with either.
Production and demand are a part of the private sector capitalism.
When demand outstrips supply, prices rise until demand and supply come back into balance.

Capitalism - not politics - reigns supreme.

Sure, it is supply / demand. Always will be. But the last election saw reduction /elimination of fracking, cancellation of Keystone pipeline, closing of Anwar, etc. etc, all driven by the current occupant of the White House and his Green New Deal advocates. Look back BEFORE the pandemic. Demand was super high then and no problem with prices at all. Now we have super inflation, supply chain issues everywhere, and all the DC politicians want to do is spend trillions of dollars and run for the hills. Saying coming out of the pandemic is driving demand is just speaking the DC talking points. Saying politics isn't in the mix is pure BS in my opinion, narrow as you may think it is !

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by tummyman

Sure, it is supply / demand. Always will be. But the last election saw reduction /elimination of fracking, cancellation of Keystone pipeline, closing of Anwar, etc. etc, all driven by the current occupant of the White House and his Green New Deal advocates. Look back BEFORE the pandemic. Demand was super high then and no problem with prices at all. Now we have super inflation, supply chain issues everywhere, and all the DC politicians want to do is spend trillions of dollars and run for the hills. Saying coming out of the pandemic is driving demand is just speaking the DC talking points. Saying politics isn't in the mix is pure BS in my opinion, narrow as you may think it is !

Well since the supply is still rising all you are listing is not having any effect.
Prior to covid the wells were operating at full production of 13M/day for crude, during covid - when President Trump was still in office - demand fell dramatically and wells were shutdown. The prediction is US production of crude will return to the 13M/day in 2023. I don't use DC numbers, I use the same numbers that the capital markets use.
We currently product as much natural gas as we did before and during covid, but exports have increased as demand from Europe means producers get higher prices.

But if you believe what your saying... go long on crude futures.

[tis]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I call BS. In this case the election had everything to do with it. You cannot defend the current administration or blame the prior for this mess.


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

I agree. If Biden had left everything Trump out in place, he would have been a hero now. But no, he had to erase every good thing Trump did and here we are.

[BroadHopper]

Originally Posted by Descant

Two thoughts come to mind. Are there regulations about limits on propane storage in residential zones? Do you own the tank, or does the dealer? If the dealer, will they give you a second tank so they can charge you less?

For instance, the town of Gilmanton only allows 2 500 gallons tanks per residential lot. And they cannot be buried. This was in 2010. In Tuftonboro, one is allowed one 1000 gallons tank and it can be buried. This was 5 years ago.
I also know it varies from year to year!

As for oil, one has a 5000 gal tank buried in Center Harbor. The owner since has changed to geothermal. He has a huge mansion with two separate buildings heated by the same boiler. He claims his energy bill was reduced from 1500 a month down to 150 a month.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by BroadHopper

For instance, the town of Gilmanton only allows 2 500 gallons tanks per residential lot. And they cannot be buried. This was in 2010. In Tuftonboro, one is allowed one 1000 gallons tank and it can be buried. This was 5 years ago.
I also know it varies from year to year!

As for oil, one has a 5000 gal tank buried in Center Harbor. The owner since has changed to geothermal. He has a huge mansion with two separate buildings heated by the same boiler. He claims his energy bill was reduced from 1500 a month down to 150 a month.

In the 70's and 80's it was not uncommon for residential 1000 gallon underground oil tanks to be installed to allow better purchasing power. Thirty years later, these tanks "expired". When they were removed for replacement, leaks were found and th result was down gradient pollution. Major clean up costs and usually, no insurance. Tank construction and installation regs are much tighter now. Buyer beware!

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Descant

In the 70's and 80's it was not uncommon for residential 1000 gallon underground oil tanks to be installed to allow better purchasing power. Thirty years later, these tanks "expired". When they were removed for replacement, leaks were found and th result was down gradient pollution. Major clean up costs and usually, no insurance. Tank construction and installation regs are much tighter now. Buyer beware!

There are State programs to fund the removal of expired tanks at little or no cost to the homeowner. I am in the process of trying to buy a home that has a buried gas tank that the owner used 30+ years ago to fill their cars. DES is involved and it looks like everything will be covered including soil and water testing.