Dr. Fauci Just Issued This "Sobering" Warning

[John Mercier]

It isn't going to be just about getting vaccinations.

The supply line is being permanently changed by the demand.

For instance, when you had your roof shingled, you may have noticed that several different color options existed... some in stock, some special order.
For every bundle of shingles that are made and warehoused for the special order, a bundle of stock color shingles could not be made. The SO are made when their is slack in the manufacturing chain that provides the excess time and tint options.

In the future, those colors with tints colors that have extended supply lines will not be manufactured and warehoused. So getting those colors, if they are even continued in the manufacturing process will cost much more and have extended lead times of months... not weeks.

When I say months, most customers thing two, three, or four. The vendors mean nine, ten, or even twelve. When you order too many, you cannot return them - they are special order. If you order too few, it will take nine, ten, or even twelve months to get another bundle.

Pick a color that is special order and have an issue like wind damage... and you can't get the roof fixed without having a patch of a stock color.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

It isn't going to be just about getting vaccinations. The supply line is being permanently changed by the demand.
For instance, when you had your roof shingled, you may have noticed that several different color options existed.

Interesting post, John. It may be too soon to say that the supply line is "permanently" changed by the demand, but I think that could be a good thing. You gave a good example of shingle colors. The number of available colors made me a bit crazy. I didn't want to have to choose from among 50 colors, 25 companies, and 10 types of shingles. A choice between black or gray architectural shingles would have been fine.

One of the biggest problems of our economy is that huge resources are invested in an excess of choices: thousands of things that people don't really need, available in a hundred times more options than we need. Because the profit motive trumps all other goals, in the end, many essential needs go unmet.

1st example: housing. We don't need larger houses with more comfort and convenience items in them. We need larger quantities of small, affordable houses with basic amenities.

2nd example: We don't need 5,000 types of food, most of it junk. We need perhaps 50 types of food, all healthy, affordable, and available.

Same for clothing, vehicles, and virtually every other consumer good you can think of. There is an overproliferation of goods and too much time, money, labor, and natural resources invested in them rather than in more fundamental needs that would give people greater well-being. I wonder what would happen if the ports prioritized ships delivering essential goods and turned away the ones delivering unnecessary junk.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

Interesting post, John. It may be too soon to say that the supply line is "permanently" changed by the demand, but I think that could be a good thing. You gave a good example of shingle colors. The number of available colors made me a bit crazy. I didn't want to have to choose from among 50 colors, 25 companies, and 10 types of shingles. A choice between black or gray architectural shingles would have been fine.

One of the biggest problems of our economy is that huge resources are invested in an excess of choices: thousands of things that people don't really need, available in a hundred times more options than we need. Because the profit motive trumps all other goals, in the end, many essential needs go unmet.

1st example: housing. We don't need larger houses with more comfort and convenience items in them. We need larger quantities of small, affordable houses with basic amenities.

2nd example: We don't need 5,000 types of food, most of it junk. We need perhaps 50 types of food, all healthy, affordable, and available.

Same for clothing, vehicles, and virtually every other consumer good you can think of. There is an overproliferation of goods and too much time, money, labor, and natural resources invested in them rather than in more fundamental needs that would give people greater well-being. I wonder what would happen if the ports prioritized ships delivering essential goods and turned away the ones delivering unnecessary junk.

And the variety of options brings up a point. How does all that variety drive up the price for those looking for a standard option, if at all? Seriously, if you aren’t satisfied with a realistic number of options, are you driving up prices for the majority to satisfy your specific desire? I don’t know that answer and looking to the SMEs (subject matter experts) to answer the question. I think we are overly indulged with regards to options. Does anything operate better if it’s a specific color?


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[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

And the variety of options brings up a point. How does all that variety drive up the price for those looking for a standard option, if at all? Seriously, if you aren’t satisfied with a realistic number of options, are you driving up prices for the majority to satisfy your specific desire? I don’t know that answer and looking to the SMEs (subject matter experts) to answer the question. I think we are overly indulged with regards to options. Does anything operate better if it’s a specific color?

If I understand you correctly, I think you're saying that fewer options would be cheaper to manufacture and prices would be lower. I think that's true. 10 factories producing 10 basic, necessary items over and over can do this more efficiently than 1000 factories producing 10,000 items, 9,990 of them unnecessary. I also think that a huge number of the excess products end up in the landfill.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

If I understand you correctly, I think you're saying that fewer options would be cheaper to manufacture and prices would be lower. I think that's true. 10 factories producing 10 basic, necessary items over and over can do this more efficiently than 1000 factories producing 10,000 items, 9,990 of them unnecessary. I also think that a huge number of the excess products end up in the landfill.

You get my point. Really, do we need 100 options when 10 will suffice for the realistic operation of what we need? To me, your being should not be reflected in material things. Rather, it should be reflected in how you treat those around you. After my husband died, I turned to material things that I was not allowed in the marriage. Yet when I was free to decide on the material things, in the end they brought me no joy. Perhaps this was a reflection that I got little support from those around me after his death, so I sought solace in material things. Whatever the case may be, objects pale in comparison to human interaction.


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[John Mercier]

Not quite.
The specialty items are priced accordingly.

What happens is the factories would run at about 80% capacity, so the specialty items would occupy that slack 20%.
The slack is normally built in to deal with maintenance and labor issues.

Currently, the demand is so high that the basic items represent more than 100% of the capacity.

From a consumer standpoint, the timeline is changing.

For instance, if you came to me to order a Mathews Brothers vinyl window - high efficiency is built into their product at all levels - but wanted a basic white no bells and whistles last March then ordered the same exact window in October, you would see the same price. The lead time would move from four week to six weeks.

Now, if you ordered Black on Black, as compared to that white window you would see a higher cost for the extra work, and an extended lead time for the extra work to be done.
If you tried to order that Black on Black in June, you would find that they shut down that option for a time due to supply lines of the materials needed to manufacture the Black on Black option.

Certain options that use to have lead times of six to eight weeks, now have those lead times in months. If you need more, it takes months to get that; and if you have extra it is non-returnable.

That adds significantly to cost for the people that want the specialty items.

[trfour]

PLEAS stay well, and OUT of the WAY!

[Woodsy]

Originally Posted by trfour

PLEAS stay well, and OUT of the WAY!

Unfortunately, Covid is NEVER going away.... and it will continue to mutate (as designed)! This is no longer a pandemic, this is endemic. The sooner people accept that there will be new norms, the better off they will be. The vax and the subsequent follow on drugs will "most likely" and with "minimal side effects" keep your symptoms mild to moderate and you will "most likely" not require hospitalization if you should catch Covid. But there is still no guarantee... Per the CDC a person who is vaxxed can still catch & spread Covid. Those who are high risk now, regardless of vaccination status/community vax rate will be high risk tomorrow. This will not change.

This is all about choice... Some people will get vaxxed, some will not. Some people will take the newer drugs as they come on the market, some will not. Some will live the rest of their lives terrified of the virus, others will adapt and overcome. If you believe the vax protects you, then you have nothing to fear from the unvaxxed. Live your life, and let others live theirs.

Woodsy

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by Woodsy

Live your life, and let others live theirs.

It's that simple, Woodsy. The more people try to push others, trying to convince them that their way is the right / only way, the more people dig in their heels and resist. If they keep poking the bear, sooner or later, the bear is going to get sick of it and fight back.

[John Mercier]

Capitalism doesn't care about what you think.
Capitalism is what is moving the guardrails.

[Woodsy]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Capitalism doesn't care about what you think.
Capitalism is what is moving the guardrails.

Capitalism cares more about what you think than socialism does.... as capitalism is based on individualism and individual gain.


Woodsy

[John Mercier]

Our businesses may appear to be more socialistic, in that they are now more concerned with labor, but that is more of limited resource on the various capitalistic inputs.

The companies that focus the hardest on attracting, protecting, and keeping the talent survive, and those that don't fail.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

What happens is the factories would run at about 80% capacity, so the specialty items would occupy that slack 20%.

John, I just want a window. I don't want an expensive specialty window. I want something that keeps the weather out and opens and closes.

I can think of an awful lot of things to do with the slack 20% besides producing unneeded items. Take for example the Ball Chain company in Mount Vernon, New York. During the pandemic they used their slack to distribute one of the very few trustworthy KN95 masks from China (made by Powecom in China and sold by Ball Chain under the name Bona Fide Masks). https://www.maxim.com/gear/us-ball-c...ring-pandemic/

The problem with our economy and marketing is that companies no longer start by analyzing what consumers need. They start by inventing unneeded products and then convince people they need them.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

John, I just want a window. I don't want an expensive specialty window. I want something that keeps the weather out and opens and closes.

I can think of an awful lot of things to do with the slack 20% besides producing unneeded items. Take for example the Ball Chain company in Mount Vernon, New York. During the pandemic they used their slack to distribute one of the very few trustworthy KN95 masks from China (made by Powecom in China and sold by Ball Chain under the name Bona Fide Masks). https://www.maxim.com/gear/us-ball-c...ring-pandemic/

The problem with our economy and marketing is that companies no longer start by analyzing what consumers need. They start by inventing unneeded products and then convince people they need them.

Actually the consumer drives it. They make the requests and we see what we can accomplish.

It has been that way forever.

People see old cape cod homes, the slope of the roof is lower than the modern versions, and they sometimes wonder why the front facade has clapboards while the sides and the back have shingles. The answer is that it was easier to produces shingles with a broad axe, while clapboard would require two men working with a saw. Because the clapboard required more work... it was placed on the ''money-side'' of a home.

They ask why old farmers used to paint window sashes black. Black would allow the eye to look past the frame and grille work (muntins) making the window appear larger. Larger panes of glass were costly, and this made the farmer look a bit richer.

Today, clapboard is less expensive... and window sashes are made with dual panes that fill the entire sash. The grille work (muntins) are simply added at an additional cost.

The color options are more because people do not wish the maintenance of painting. Paint can come in about two million or so colors... so the manufacturers try to expand the color line. But certain colors or hues are always more in demand than others.

When demand is very high for those certain colors, none of the lines run the extras colors... those colors become much more pricey and have much longer lead times to get.
For a DIYer, not really an issue. But on new construction or when trying to schedule a contractor... it more often creates issues.
But even the DIYer is likely to switch to the more basic colors rather than wait close to a year to get the project completed.

[trfour]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ox/4124284001/

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

You get my point. Really, do we need 100 options when 10 will suffice for the realistic operation of what we need? To me, your being should not be reflected in material things. Rather, it should be reflected in how you treat those around you. After my husband died, I turned to material things that I was not allowed in the marriage. Yet when I was free to decide on the material things, in the end they brought me no joy. Perhaps this was a reflection that I got little support from those around me after his death, so I sought solace in material things. Whatever the case may be, objects pale in comparison to human interaction.

I agree with your sentiment here, and I think it's the real root of all of our current crises. Greed around material things and money has led to people giving no thought to why we're on this earth and what we came here to do. In my opinion, we're here to learn as much as we can, make things easier for others, and care for the planet. Sometimes those lessons are learned through big personal losses.

[John Mercier]

I generally don't see greed... I see lack of planning.
They say this happens whenever a large part of the population surveys their mortality.