Cost of fuel...

[DickR]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

They estimate that your investment portfolio must be about 7.5 times the value of your home(s) to maintain your standard of living...

While the formulae in that article may be (very crudely) ballpark for some folks in some areas, the article is fairly useless in many areas of NH lakes region. The market value of lakefront homes often is a poor indication of the income or living standard of the owners. Recent years have pushed market values way up, but that is a reflection of the buying power and perhaps living standard of prospective owners, not the current owners.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by DickR

While the formulae in that article may be (very crudely) ballpark for some folks in some areas, the article is fairly useless in many areas of NH lakes region. The market value of lakefront homes often is a poor indication of the income or living standard of the owners. Recent years have pushed market values way up, but that is a reflection of the buying power and perhaps living standard of prospective owners, not the current owners.

We are a little off track here... but the cost of fuel will impact everything.

The NH property taxes will make up the difference.

Even studies in NH show that most retirees are more concerned with the amount of income they currently have... future prospects are for Medicare costs to increase (Part A Trust fund insolvency would result in lower payouts to hospitals) and decreased OASI (Social Security) monthly benefits.

*Update... the govt cap is now 970,800. I think when Peter Bennett updated his blog he forgot to update that number.




But even if we took a prior to dramatic price increases... a very low percentage of residents are meeting the mark. Early retirees are usually happy... but the longer they live the worse it gets. That may be the result of too much spending in early retirement, or trying to cover the deferment of property repair/upgrade prepping for physical changes.

Also, according to Peter Bennett - a staff writer at MyBankTracker.com, there is a govt cap on HECM provided with FHA of 625,500 regardless of the value of the home and a 1.25% annual premium. The only private lender going beyond that cap is Tulsa, Okla.-based Urban Financial of America. They will go 40% of equity up to $2.5 million... but no competition means high fees.

The cost of fuel will have both short and long term impacts as it builds into our system. We may see the prices in the future fall, but they generally do not fall back to where they were prior to the surge. Boating, as with many things, is a long term commitment. Yes, some will sell-out, as I did... but many will need to adjust short term to endure long term. The ''offsets'' will differ for each boater, but the ''offsets'' also have longer term effects.

I am sure that marinas are needing to think about product like we are. They will need to determine how much product to purchase for future demand years ahead of delivery due to the supply lines. Restaurants/etc may be trying to determine what they need for this summer... but even they have to think about the longer term capital investments that they will be making in the business.

[garysanfran]

Isn't tapping into your petroleum reserve to lower fuel costs like...

Tapping into your savings account to stem your loss of wealth? If you take from your left hand and give it to the right, the body as a whole has not improved.

[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

Isn't tapping into your petroleum reserve to lower fuel costs like...

Tapping into your savings account to stem your loss of wealth? If you take from your left hand and give it to the right, the body as a whole has not improved.

Correct, grasshopper


Sent from my iPhone using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[tis]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

Isn't tapping into your petroleum reserve to lower fuel costs like...

Tapping into your savings account to stem your loss of wealth? If you take from your left hand and give it to the right, the body as a whole has not improved.

And if we tap into the reserve, isn't it only enough for a couple of days?

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by tis

And if we tap into the reserve, isn't it only enough for a couple of days?

At our current consumption rate of about 20 million barrels a day, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would last only 36 days if we were faced with a situation where the oil had to be released all at once.

However, only 4.4 million barrels a day can be withdrawn, extending our supply to 165 days

[BoatHouse]

“Based on the price of oil, I’ve also instructed the Secretary of Energy to purchase at a very good price large quantities of crude oil for storage in the U.S. strategic reserve,” US President said.

“We’re going to fill it right up to the top, saving the American taxpayer billions and billions of dollars, helping our oil industry [and furthering] that wonderful goal — which we’ve achieved, which nobody thought was possible — of energy independence,” he added.

[garysanfran]

And from what country will we be purchasing the replacement petroleum?

[LikeLakes]

You guys just don't understand how this works.

We buy massive amounts of oil, and store it in caverns in the ground. Then every day we buy massive amounts of oil and consume it, but in the process of consuming it we have Big Oil companies doing the refining of the final products we use. It is imperative that each Big Oil company has hundreds if not thousands of employees making over a million dollars a year, to supervise the 10's of thousands of refinery and transportation workers that make $40,000 to $70,000 a year. All those massive salaries combined with share buybacks and shareholder dividends put the price at the pump at all time highs. Therefore the government releases the oil purchased at lower prices from the reserve and replaces it with high priced oil, while Big Oil still makes all that money on every gallon we consume, even the oil from the reserves. Simple, see?

All kidding aside, oil companies are using this high priced environment to pad their profits at record levels at the expense of all of us, while still being handed money by the government. It's out of control.

[Descant]

LikeLakes, I think I understand, but my wife owns the car, so she buys the gas. Higher gas prices just don't affect me. She owns the house too, so I don't pay for oil either. On the other hand, I own a piece of Exxon and Chevron and I don't share the dividends, so it's all balanced out.

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by Descant

LikeLakes, I think I understand, but my wife owns the car, so she buys the gas. Higher gas prices just don't affect me. She owns the house too, so I don't pay for oil either. On the other hand, I own a piece of Exxon and Chevron and I don't share the dividends, so it's all balanced out.

Does she have a sister? Do you happen to have a picture? (Asking for a friend)

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

And from what country will we be purchasing the replacement petroleum?

The US. It is always purchased from US suppliers when the market price is low, and sold into the market of US refiners when the market prices is high.

The price is set globally, but the physical stock is transported the shortest distance available.

[searay]

Simple message. Our politicians are useless. No matter what side you are on we should never be in this position. Gas should be somewhere between $2-$3. They never admit to the real issue. New refineries, pipelines and incentives would eliminate this problem. It has nothing to do with clean energy. Does anyone with half a brain really believe that we can't build clean energy facilities in 2022. What Washington needs is more engineers and less lawyers. Such a disgrace.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by BoatHouse

“Based on the price of oil, I’ve also instructed the Secretary of Energy to purchase at a very good price large quantities of crude oil for storage in the U.S. strategic reserve,” US President said.

“We’re going to fill it right up to the top, saving the American taxpayer billions and billions of dollars, helping our oil industry [and furthering] that wonderful goal — which we’ve achieved, which nobody thought was possible — of energy independence,” he added.

We achieved energy independence largely through the extreme capital investment that allowed for supply growth to be higher than demand growth.
Demand growth was then initiated with the ban on Venezuelan petroleum products, and increases in the amount of export to historic levels.

With US demand higher, and European demand absorbing more, the prices are going to be higher until the global demand drops.

Companies involved in exploration and extraction are not going to hire and train new crews, or expend massive capital on inflated equipment prices and fractured supply lines... as investors we expect a ROI, and that means really good dividends for the coming years - not more investment into heady over-the-top expansion.

[garysanfran]

The benefit is to the producing countries like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia.

Can't be a beneficiary, if you don't produce.

Maybe the USA should return to #1 exporter and complete independence? Be a win-win for the Home team!

[John Mercier]

The oil companies have laid out plans to return capital to investors.
They have laid out that hiring/training new crews and purchasing new equipment will be done on a long term strategic program. No one can make them change.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

The benefit is to the producing countries like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia.

Can't be a beneficiary, if you don't produce.

Maybe the USA should return to #1 exporter and complete independence? Be a win-win for the Home team!

We have never been the #1 net exporter; and we are the #1 producer.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what...Saudi%20Arabia.

[LikeLakes]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

We achieved energy independence largely through the extreme capital investment that allowed for supply growth to be higher than demand growth.
Demand growth was then initiated with the ban on Venezuelan petroleum products, and increases in the amount of export to historic levels.

With US demand higher, and European demand absorbing more, the prices are going to be higher until the global demand drops.

Companies involved in exploration and extraction are not going to hire and train new crews, or expend massive capital on inflated equipment prices and fractured supply lines... as investors we expect a ROI, and that means really good dividends for the coming years - not more investment into heady over-the-top expansion.

John, excellent points. I'd add that all exploration and R&D are not the same. The major investment and focus on fracked and other new tech over the past decade plus proved to be only financially viable in times of higher oil prices, and the half life of the wells is very short, so they don't have anywhere near as much time and quantity to amortize the investment over. I don't think we'll see that extreme push again, even given the high current oil prices. They are able to sit back, do what they do, and operate at massively profitable levels.

[John Mercier]

Devon, which I think is still the largest independent in shale, expects to grow its output by about 5 percent annually. But most of its earnings are going to be returned as dividends to its investors... rather than sunk into expansion.

[sluggo]

Very interesting conversation ! so with all said here gas prices are really going to suck this year

[LikeLakes]

Originally Posted by sluggo

Very interesting conversation ! so with all said here gas prices are really going to suck this year

I don't have a clue where gas prices are going to go over the next year. I tend to think they will back off a bit from these highs but remain elevated through the year.

The world has more than enough oil even without Russia, just need a re-balancing and as someone else mentioned there is a need for more refining capacity. But there isn't a supply reason why crude prices can't drop, I'm sure oil producers will try to ride this cash cow as long as they can by not increasing production as much as they probably could.

[John Mercier]

With all the gasoline being used for recreation and travel to second homes... it hasn't slowed... and so gasoline/oil are a reasonable risk/reward balance for stable-to-higher prices.

The downside is demand destruction - we saw short term during the pandemic and oil futures actually went negative; while the upside is maybe a natural disaster like Katrina.

[Boatbottom952]

I believe in 2025 when President Trump takes back the office, you will see a extreme difference in the way Liberals have been running the show. Biden wants us to think this is the " New Normal ". It's not nor ever will be. In November things will start to change, it will be different. When you see this Great Country come back around will be 1 day after President Trump takes office in 2025. Hope I live that long. We can't continue to spiral out of control like this. Gas will be back down to an affordable $$ for average people.

[dickiej]

Good one….you got us!

[garysanfran]

Originally Posted by Boatbottom952

I believe in 2025 when President Trump takes back the office, you will see a extreme difference in the way Liberals have been running the show. Biden wants us to think this is the " New Normal ". It's not nor ever will be. In November things will start to change, it will be different. When you see this Great Country come back around will be 1 day after President Trump takes office in 2025. Hope I live that long. We can't continue to spiral out of control like this. Gas will be back down to an affordable $$ for average people.

I've long believed our democracy operates like a pendulum...Always trying to approach the center, with the swings from left-to-right, right-to-left... sometimes a bit more forceful, like it has been in the last few years. And I agree, in November the pendulum will swing again toward the center. Notice AOC is not in the news as frequently?

[garysanfran]

For regular in the Lakes Region? Out here, on the left coast, it's over $6.

I'll be back there buyin' soon!

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by Boatbottom952

I believe in 2025 when President Trump takes back the office, you will see a extreme difference in the way Liberals have been running the show. Biden wants us to think this is the " New Normal ". It's not nor ever will be. In November things will start to change, it will be different. When you see this Great Country come back around will be 1 day after President Trump takes office in 2025. Hope I live that long. We can't continue to spiral out of control like this. Gas will be back down to an affordable $$ for average people.

Capitalism... not politics... creates the pricing.
President Trump shut of the Venezuelan oil and shifted us to Russia.
He also opened up the door for more shipment overseas of LNG.
He broke the Iran deal, that took Iranian oil out of the picture.

But in the end... it is simply that you use too much. Same thing happened in wood when he was sitting as President... just too much demand for the commodity.