lake level

[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by chachee52

I think that it's funny how everyone is blaming the water management.

DES is the easy target, and people need someone to target for their misfortune.
At the end of the day, mother nature is unpredictable. There is a protocol in place for controlling the lake level, it gets followed within reason every year. Many times it works out just fine, but you have exceptions. After 40 years going to the lake, the exceptions are a small percentage of those years.

The problem really comes down to how well you are prepared and equiped to handle the exceptions. As dock structures have become more permanent and less adjustable it isn't easy to re-adjust when water levels go outside the norm. This is why I favor removable docks. and why I have always kept an extra dock section, so when the water is low, I can go out another few feet. When the water is high well that is a little harder to deal with.... However with the right set up you can always raise your dock.

Many lakes have a much wider operating band and people have to no choice but to move away from fixed docks.... that is the issue that plagues Winnipesaukee, because its operating band is controlled so narrowly, everyone avoids the additional cost of a more adjustable docking solution.

[garysanfran]

Originally Posted by chachee52

I think that it's funny how everyone is blaming the water management. I remember this same criticism last spring that "it was too high for my dock and boat" then when it was back to "normal" and we didn't get any rain all summer, the same people were "the dam got mismanaged and now the water is too low". It's not an exact science.
Way back in the day, there was no damn and the lake level was high and then it was low. Who did people complain abut then?
It is what it is, they are doing the best that they can.
I have a bumper sticker that someone gave me from England and I have it on my wall at work: Keep Calm and Carry On

For the prior 65 years I've been coming here, no problem. Then, three years in a row? The low water last year was an anomaly, but the rain in the spring was forecasted as it has been for decades. So when something, for over 60 years all of a sudden changes what was the change that made that happen? The management of the Lakeport Dam. I was told the operation was sold to a Canadian concern.

[John Mercier]

It is managed by the State.

[BillTex]

Back on the coast we call this phenomena “tidal change”. Happens 2x/day.

[Biggd]

Draining the lake seems to be a lot harder than draining your wallet these days!

[TiltonBB]

Using my unofficial, non-scientific, possibly inaccurate measurement it appears the lake has dropped about 5 inches from the highest spring level.

I went through the Weirs Channel yesterday and I was surprised to see the indicator on the bridge showing right at the "full lake" level. I have been told in the past that that sign is not accurate. The current is still running pretty hard through the Channel.

At the house, the lake level still seems 3 or 4 inches higher than normal. However, it is a big improvement over the past two weeks.

[fatlazyless]

Looking closely at the BearCam, their dock with the three large blue trash cans full of water is no longer underwater. About a week ago, the dock looked underwater by an inch or two or something.

[jeffk]

The DES measures the lake at about 2.75 above full pool this morning so your measurement at your house syncs to the "official" measurement pretty well.

The current is running hard through the Weirs channel because the dam is almost at max output 1850 CFS of 2000 CFS. At 2000 CFS the lake is drained about 1 inch per day and ALL of that has to flow through the channel.

Just for math geeky fun -
Lake Winnipesaukee covers approximately 46080 acres
X
43560 sq feet per acre
= 2,007,244,800 sq ft total
divided by 12 for the 1" drop per day at max dam output
=
167,270,400 Cubic feet of water
x
7.5 gallons per cubic foot
= 1,254,528,000 gallons of water flowing through the Weirs channel daily at maximum dam output of 2000 CFS.

For a cross check
2000 CFS dam output at maximum
x
86400 seconds per day
=172,800,000 CFDay
x
7.5 gal per CF
=1,296,000,000 gallons of water per day at max dam output of 2000 CFS, pretty close to the other calculation.

That's roughly the amount of water in 65 thousand 20,000 gallon swimming pools.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by Biggd

Draining the lake seems to be a lot harder than draining your wallet these days!

Going to get much worse.
Customers have even less patience than boaters.

[Biggd]

Waukewan is still very high, and Mill Falls looks to be full tilt
I still haven't put my boat in, a combination of bad weather every weekend, high water, and a busy schedule. This is the latest I've ever put the boat in the water.
Last weekend the water was right at the bottom of my dock, the highest I've ever seen it and last fall was the lowest I ever seen it in my 12 years there.

[jeffk]

They have cut the dam output, probably to help Winnisquam and Silver Lake get back within normal summer range. Winnipesaukee is now about 1.5" over full pool and in a few days it will be down to full.

This is where we got off track last year as the rain stopped for two months but the dam operators started their normal summer drawdown. It would be smarter to leave the lake around full and draw down in response to the rain we actually get to keep it there into July. Then draw it down a bit, 3 or 4 inches if needed, and pause to see what rain we actually get. Continue the monthly reevaluation and small drawdowns into the Fall.

One thing to remember, even with the dam at minimum 250 CFS it still drops the lake almost 4" a month. Plus normal evaporation processes lower it further. So if almost no rain falls to counter that, no further drawdown is needed each month. Historical rainfall levels are 3 to 4 inches a month so it would balance if rain fell per the average. Unfortunately, Mother Nature tends to be whimsical.

The plan should be to hang on to the water we have in the lake and evaluate the past month's rainfall and, if needed, open the dam to drop the lake to meet the 3 to 4 inch monthly drawdown target. If we anticipate very heavy (3"+) rain, open the dam a bit a week ahead of the storm if needed to counter possible flooding.

[TiltonBB]

Jeffk: I agree with your conclusion. The lake is still a little high.

I went through the Weirs Channel yesterday and the lake level is still showing right at full lake on the sign. That means that full lake is actually 1 1/2" below the red line on the sign.

I am surprised at how warm the lake is this early in the season. It read 72 degrees on the boat gauge.

[tis]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Jeffk: I agree with your conclusion. The lake is still a little high.

I went through the Weirs Channel yesterday and the lake level is still showing right at full lake on the sign. That means that full lake is actually 1 1/2" below the red line on the sign.

I am surprised at how warm the lake is this early in the season. It read 72 degrees on the boat gauge.

I agree, it's warm. I went swimming yesterday for the first time and it didn't even take my breath away!

[jeffk]

Winnipesaukee is finally slightly below Full Pool. There is NO rain in the 10 day forecast.

NOW is the time to dial the dam output back to minimal and preserve water until we get significant rain. Even at minimal dam output, the lake drops almost 4 inches a month. Plus summer evaporation. From now through the rest of the summer, dam output should only increase when we already received enough rain to justify it OR if there are BIG rainfalls predicted and we want to stay a little ahead of them. As the summer proceeds and the lake is lower, the threat of a big rainfall becomes less concerning. A month from now, the lake would be 4" below full and could soak up a big rainfall without a problem.

[The Real BigGuy]

Based on the lake level today, are all those people who complained about the lake being too high and assuming/stating that the people who manage the dam don’t know what they are doing, ready to admit that those people are pretty good at managing things?

If they had dropped the level as was mentioned/demanded, those
same complaining people would be the first to scream that the lake was too low and the dam operators don’t know what they are doing.

My compliments to the DES Dam Bureau for a job well done!!

[NHskier]

DES Lakeport update:

Winnipesaukee Operations
Friday, July 17th, 5 AM readings
The level of Lake Winnipesaukee is 503.94 (504.32 is full level).
The flow rate is 360 cfs. Flow will be reduced to 250 cfs.

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by The Real BigGuy

Based on the lake level today, are all those people who complained about the lake being too high and assuming/stating that the people who manage the dam don’t know what they are doing, ready to admit that those people are pretty good at managing things?

If they had dropped the level as was mentioned/demanded, those
same complaining people would be the first to scream that the lake was too low and the dam operators don’t know what they are doing.

My compliments to the DES Dam Bureau for a job well done!!

Sorry, but the lake was too high this Spring because the operators, after the spring melt and predicted significant rain, were SLOW to open the dam ahead of the rain. That amounted to about 3" more water that has lasted until recently, aggravating the high water situation.

Now, they were SLOW to close the dam and they have dropped the lake 5" below full lake, as we enter the hot season and, per last years experience, when we had NO RAIN for 3 months. If they had shut the dam a couple weeks ago we would have had 3" more in reserve. If significant rains show up, they could THEN open the dam. We can't make water if there is no rain.

In the Spring, they need to manage to an likely excess of water, anticipating excess conditions.

In the Summer, they need to manage to a possible deficit of water, anticipating dry conditions.

They react to what actually happens but they do not anticipate getting into situations where the actions they can take are limited. In the Spring they can't dump water fast enough because downstream is maxed out. In the Summer, they can't make it rain.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by jeffk

Sorry, but the lake was too high this Spring because the operators, after the spring melt and predicted significant rain, were SLOW to open the dam ahead of the rain. That amounted to about 3" more water that has lasted until recently, aggravating the high water situation.

Now, they were SLOW to close the dam and they have dropped the lake 5" below full lake, as we enter the hot season and, per last years experience, when we had NO RAIN for 3 months. If they had shut the dam a couple weeks ago we would have had 3" more in reserve. If significant rains show up, they could THEN open the dam. We can't make water if there is no rain.

In the Spring, they need to manage to an likely excess of water, anticipating excess conditions.

In the Summer, they need to manage to a possible deficit of water, anticipating dry conditions.

They react to what actually happens but they do not anticipate getting into situations where the actions they can take are limited. In the Spring they can't dump water fast enough because downstream is maxed out. In the Summer, they can't make it rain.

It's easy to look back and see mistakes.
All of New England is still in a drought situation, some areas worse than others.
Weather forecasting in New England has always been a crapshoot!

[JayR]

Just look at the history; some years were flooded early and some years were droughts late, but overall, the bell curve is getting slimmer over time.

The dam operators do so much better than generations before. The typical modern person (tourist? maybe) just has these sky-high expectations of perfection. Dock underwater in May? Unacceptable. Too shallow in September? Unacceptable.

Fluctuations are part of the risk we take playing in Mother Nature's bathtub. Many voices here see the big picture, and I disagree with those who keep complaining about scientists/professionals who are doing the best they can for this place with the data they have and the weather we encounter. It won't be perfect. It was never perfect. It is way better than before.

My advice? Simplify. Go enjoy the lake! And beware as once in a while it may get too high or too low! NUFF SAID!

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by Biggd

It's easy to look back and see mistakes.
All of New England is still in a drought situation, some areas worse than others.
Weather forecasting in New England has always been a crapshoot!

According to this, https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regiona...t/drought.html most of the Northeast is NOT in drought. Where it is, it is along the coast.

Mistakes are fine until they are repeated endlessly and possible changes to minimize them are ignored. Yes, weather forecasting is uncertain. THAT is why you manage to allow for errors in expectations to avoid situations from getting worse. Dumping some excess water in the Spring BEFORE more rain happens than expected is not hard to do. Retaining some extra water in the summer in case the rains don't happen as expected is not hard to do. These steps are shock absorbers for the extremes, smoothing them out a bit.

[Winilyme]

Not to worry. Before you know it, AI will be making all these decisions better than any human can

[ApS]

Originally Posted by jeffk

"Lake Winnipesaukee does not have a single source; it is a naturally glacially formed body of water primarily fed by ancient underground springs and dozens of relatively small streams and tributaries.

Primary Inflows: Eighty-three relatively small streams and rivers drain into the lake's massive 215,133-acre watershed. Major inflows include the Gunstock, Merrymeeting, Melvin, and Red Hill Rivers."

I have heard that the primary water input to the lake is the underground springs.

While there has certainly been a lot of development along the shoreline and immediately nearby, the watershed extends out for miles and development away from the lake is, relatively, much less. The streams that feed the lake are probably still delivering the same amounts of water although that overall amount is probably impossible to know.

Shoreline runoff has definitely increased. What it's overall volume contribution to lake level is, is speculation.

I think the dam could be managed smarter. Given the fickleness of mother nature, it's never going to be a perfect process but the extremes could be smoothed out. First principle, you can't make it rain so we should retain more water, longer, SHORT of bad shoreline erosion levels, to anticipate the possibility of a couple of months of dry weather. Second principle, we need to anticipate major storms and drawdown enough ahead of the the storm so it doesn't rise the lake to exceed levels that cause shoreline erosion. Dam response AFTER the storm is complicated by downstream conditions.

Answered previously:

Isn't the dam under some control 24 hours a day?

In the event of a torrential rain anywhere within the 'Winnipesaukee Basin', fine-tuning the dam outflow could be done for some short period of time (gained through experience).

Since I've been observing the lake my entire (long) lifetime, I see that the immense sizes of today's boats has, over time, stressed management of the lake level.

IMHO, spring's boating erosion of the shoreline should take precedence over oversized boat inconvenience.

The muddied shoreline I've been watching extending itself outwards for 70 years at this same location is testimony; not to mention, algae growth that didn't exist back then.

Micro-plants grew like green peach fuzz on our moored boats' bottoms, but nothing like the algae masses we see while peering off our dock on Winter Harbor.

[The Real BigGuy]

Some people seem to think that the lake level can be managed week to week. It could if input could be managed the same way. The forecasters are extremely inaccurate. How many times has rain been predicted and we get none. Or the reverse. Again I ask, where would the lake level be today if the operators had dropped the level like some posters had asked? Would those same people be complaining that the dam was mismanaged because too much water was released?

And, by the way, if you go to the URL provided by JeffK you will see that the state is, in fact, in drought condition from the southern end of the lake south.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by The Real BigGuy

Some people seem to think that the lake level can be managed week to week. It could if input could be managed the same way. The forecasters are extremely inaccurate. How many times has rain been predicted and we get none. Or the reverse. Again I ask, where would the lake level be today if the operators had dropped the level like some posters had asked? Would those same people be complaining that the dam was mismanaged because too much water was released?

And, by the way, if you go to the URL provided by JeffK you will see that the state is, in fact, in drought condition from the southern end of the lake south.

You've asserted things in a way that ignores a couple of realities. The lake's water release is just pushing a few buttons or turning a few knobs, right? If yes, the water level can be managed not only week to week, but hour to hour. The math that Jeff proposed is pretty straightforward--we could be at the same level today with more release earlier and less release later.

I agree it is damn difficult to forecast the weather, and that hindsight is 20/20, and that Monday morning quarterbacking is easy. But when someone says the low level of early release makes us better off today, that is also Monday morning quarterbacking...except it is ignoring the possibility of fast early release followed by slow later release.

Perhaps more importantly, you imply that more water is better. We don't really know that. The high early water levels combined with wind and boat wakes definitely increase erosion, and that increases milfoil, cyanobacteria, and other ills. We don't see this stuff immediately the way we see boat problems, but it may be much more important to us over time

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by The Real BigGuy

Some people seem to think that the lake level can be managed week to week. It could if input could be managed the same way. The forecasters are extremely inaccurate. ...

And, by the way, if you go to the URL provided by JeffK you will see that the state is, in fact, in drought condition from the southern end of the lake south.

You don't have to manage by forecast. You manage by the actual conditions and the realities of the season. In the spring, if the lake is already full and there is still snow melt and likely heavier spring rainfall, you dump some excess water when you can and when it will not flood downstream. As you go into summer and dry spells can happen and the lake is already below full conditions, you retain some water to the level that a big rain could still be absorbed without problems but not as low as the "mean" has been. All THAT CAN be managed week to week, even day to day and is based on anticipating problem conditions and mitigating them as much as you can.

Your original statement was "All of New England is still in a drought situation". That is only true if having some drought anywhere in a state means ALL the state is in in drought. In fact, most states are significantly, by area, NOT in drought or just abnormally dry. NH is about 3/4 drought free. Also, the conditions across New England have been improving over the last few months.

[ApS]

I think whoever controls Winnipesaukee's lake level needs a "Weather Rock".

[The Real BigGuy]

I guess some people just need something to complain about & a target for their complaints!

With the lake closing in on, or by now surpassing 6 inches below full pool, when do the complaints that the dam bureau doesn’t know what it is doing start?

[TiltonBB]

WMUR says "Flash flooding possible Wednesday and Thursday". Bring it on! The lake is getting too low. Sorry if flooding affects you, or this is your vacation week, but we need the water.

[rsmlp]

Same story every damn year. Mismanagement of the dam causes premature lowering of the lake level. By mid August we'll be extemely low and once again I'll need to pull my boat by end of the month. Pitiful!

[Puck]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

Same story every damn year. Mismanagement of the dam causes premature lowering of the lake level. By mid August we'll be extemely low and once again I'll need to pull my boat by end of the month. Pitiful!

Based on the water level graphs posted in other threads they've been maintaining the lake this way for over 40 years so clearly they're not going to learn. I think it's about time to find state that knows what they're doing and buy lakefront there instead.

[Biggd]

Let's hope we get a good amount of rain over these next few days, because it's dropping fast!

[Biggd]

August 1st and Waukewan is already at September levels, down a foot and a half from its highwater mark in June.
It looks like it will be another early pull if we don't get substantial rain soon.
Hit a rock today, luckily it just scaped the sked, no damage.

[jeffk]

We are actually very slightly below the level we were at this time last year. The make or break from this point on is how much rain we get. If the rainfall is low, there is ABSOLUTELTY NOTHING the dam operators will be able to do about it.

Supposedly the minimum dam output is 250 CFS, which still drops the lake about 3" per month. Last October, they dropped it to 50 CFS. I don't know if that was a crisis response or the the 250 CFS "minimum" is only a suggestion.

What they SHOULD have done is drop the lake to only a couple of inches below full pool until the rain actually showed up. Then drain it. Then, at the end of each month, if the lake is at a good level (i.e. sufficient rain has fallen), drop it a little more, easing toward fall levels.

[TheTimeTraveler]

Well they've had 175 years to figure out the optimum water flows from when the Lakeport Dam first came on line back in 1851.

The dam was a wooden structure way back then but in the early 1980's it was converted to a modern concrete structure.

In 1943 (during the second world war) a breach occurred in the dam.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by Biggd

August 1st and Waukewan is already at September levels, down a foot and a half from its highwater mark in June.
It looks like it will be another early pull if we don't get substantial rain soon.
Hit a rock today, luckily it just scaped the sked, no damage.

How is the work at Mills Falls effecting that?
Do they have to drop Waukewan down really low to make the reconstruction?

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

How is the work at Mills Falls effecting that?
Do they have to drop Waukewan down really low to make the reconstruction?

I was informed they had to drop it an extra 6 inches, and I think the work was completed this past week.
I noticed tonight that the falls were at a trickle so hopefully we get some rain!

[John Mercier]

Did the assessment require it to stay low?
Or just a lack of rain?

If the LDS article is right, it looks like the major work will be done in a couple of years.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Did the assessment require it to stay low?
Or just a lack of rain?

If the LDS article is right, it looks like the major work will be done in a couple of years.

I do believe there is more work to be done, and they will have to drain it down even lower when that project takes place, not sure when.

[ishoot308]

The 3 1/2” of rain we got today should help a little…

Dan

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

The 3 1/2” of rain we got today should help a little…

More like 1.5" lake level rise (3.75-3.63X12)

https://hads.ncep.noaa.gov/nexhads2/...IN3&pe_code=TW

[No Wake Zone]

Originally Posted by jeffk

We are actually very slightly below the level we were at this time last year. The make or break from this point on is how much rain we get. If the rainfall is low, there is ABSOLUTELTY NOTHING the dam operators will be able to do about it.

Supposedly the minimum dam output is 250 CFS, which still drops the lake about 3" per month. Last October, they dropped it to 50 CFS. I don't know if that was a crisis response or the the 250 CFS "minimum" is only a suggestion.

What they SHOULD have done is drop the lake to only a couple of inches below full pool until the rain actually showed up. Then drain it. Then, at the end of each month, if the lake is at a good level (i.e. sufficient rain has fallen), drop it a little more, easing toward fall levels.

This only make sense, base the flow off of the rain, not history. I had to power off my lift this weekend and I'm afraid it might become a real problem and I have water. People in Melvin Village will be having a real problem and it's only the start of August. People have to pull their boats early and can't enjoy the lake in the fall.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

More like 1.5" lake level rise (3.75-3.63X12)

https://hads.ncep.noaa.gov/nexhads2/...IN3&pe_code=TW

Maybe my weather station is wrong but here is what it says we received on Welch…

[Lakes Region Guy]

If you look on the forum home page under water temperature. You can find a link to precipitation at the weirs. According to this site the precipitation yesterday was approximately 2.65 inches.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Lakes Region Guy

If you look on the forum home page under water temperature. You can find a link to precipitation at the weirs. According to this site the precipitation yesterday was approximately 2.65 inches.

Yeah, I think my rain gauge must be off. As my neighbor, two houses away, said his gauge read just over 2” which honestly seems more inline with what I saw for rain out here…

Thanks!

Dan

[rsmlp]

It doesn't matter what your local rainfall amount was. the LAKE LEVEL rose about 1.5".

[ApS]

To amplify rslmp's post, rainfall within the Winnipesaukee Basin won't necessarily appear on lake gauges for some varible amount of time. (Hours/Days).

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by Lakes Region Guy

If you look on the forum home page under water temperature. You can find a link to precipitation at the weirs. According to this site the precipitation yesterday was approximately 2.65 inches.

Here's the link if you're on Tapatalk:

https://hads.ncep.noaa.gov/nexhads2/...IN3&pe_code=TW

[Little Bear]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Maybe my weather station is wrong but here is what it says we received on Welch…

...Welch Island Tiki Bar.....You sure that was all rain?

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Yeah, I think my rain gauge must be off. As my neighbor, two houses away, said his gauge read just over 2” which honestly seems more inline with what I saw for rain out here…

Thanks!

Dan

The rain in my dinghy says you were right for T'boro

[jeffk]

The amount of rainfall varies around the lake. My rain gauge in Center Harbor showed less than 2". I have also noticed that, watching radar, the heaviest concentrations of rainfall during storms tend to go north or south of me.

The lake level measure in the Weirs averages out the total rainfall into the lake over a bit of time. It briefly spiked at around 3" up (local rainfall effects?) but settled out up around 2.25" up . We are now running about an inch below the long term mean, 6" below full. This is probably an OK point to be, AS LONG AS WE CONTINUE TO GET "NORMAL" RAINFALL.

The dam output remains a a minimum 250 CFS.

Downstream, Winnisquam peaked at about 3" above normal high and Silver Lake is about 8" below their normal high.