Winni Weather - winter 2007

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

I just spent an hour looking at three models, the GFS, the European and the UK Met. Of the three, the UK Met is strongest in suggesting a storm effecting our area on Friday, Feb 2 a/k/a Ground Hog Day. If the UK Met is right, the low pressure area currently part of the "block" off the west coast would drift to the southeast, picks-up gulf moisture, heads northnortheastward up the coast, and phases with the cold air from the northern jet. This clearly results in a snow storm for everyone within 200 miles west of the storm track, where we would be.

However, the other two models do not completely agree. The European brings two storms close together one a bit north of us and one well south of us, with not much snow for us. The GFS holds onto the the Rex Block off the west coast and keeps the small clippers, some with no moisture, coming at us every 36 to 48 hours.

At times like this, we should look for what happens to the area of significant difference between the models and see what it does in the next 24 to 36 hours. That should tell us what model is most likely correct. In this case if the upper level low off the west coast starts to move to the southeast, then the UK Met would be right, and we should get a good storm on Friday. So, until something happens out west, it is a toss-up as to what model to follow and too early to forecast a storm. I think that is why the public forecasts hint at a poosbility of something, without commiting to anything.

There might be some "folklore danger" if we get a strom on Ground Hog Day. It has been said that if the ground hog does not see his (or her) shadow the morning of Ground Hog Day, winter will end early. Since it just started, I do not think it will end early. Following that reasoning, it would have to be sunny on Friday , not stormy, making the GFS model correct. Does this mean GFS stands for Groundhog Forecasting System?

Bottom line is the models are all over the place and it is too early to tell about any possible storm on Friday. I will look at the runs later today and early tomorrow and see what develops.

Let me know if you see it differently.

R2B

[gtxrider]

Good movie but as weather predictors, I don't trust rodents.

Come on snow!!!!! We had a bit here and without the help of a weasel.

"I got you babe....."

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hey folks, this is Winnitawney Phil, and I am a groundhog who has taken over Mike's computer. I'm offended and I'm going to join forces with those poor cavemen that Geico just won't stop dissin.' I have a close cousin who's a famous weather forecaster in Pennsylvania and my uncle recently appeared in a sleeping pill commercial with former President Abraham Lincoln! I'm so much more than just a weasel!

Mike "CLA" here again. I just chased a groundhog away from my computer with a flashlight. Big shadow on the wall. I don't think he'll be back for at least 8-10 weeks. It is 7 degrees and dropping steadily out there. Topped out at 20 on the Island today. Watched Gunstock's snow guns going full-force all day. Peak wind of 17 (North) around noon. Still no time to look at the models (setting up a new wx station, and taking much longer in the cold) so thank you R2B for the briefing. Joe Cupo on Ch. 6 was on at 11, still flip-flopping on the issues regarding Friday. He seems to think it'll form but is questioning a coast-hugger vs. farther out to sea. If it's still a good possibility tomorrow I'll definitely take a look at the models.

[Weirs guy]

I'm not the weather nut some of you are, but I do appreciate the work you guys are doing. Keep it up!

Now, hows that storm on Friday shaping up?

[CanisLupusArctos]

No need to be a weather nut to comment here. Just share what you see/measure, offer what you know, ask about what you don't know, and remind people like me not to talk too technical without explaining in plain english along the way.

The Friday storm appears to be materializing - but once again I haven't seen the models yet. I'm hoping to take a look this afternoon.

This morning I awoke to Ch-6 Portland calling it "Snow Likely" on Friday (upped from yesterday's "Snow possible.") The Weather Channel made the same kind of wording change. In weather forecasting, wording is everything and the National Weather Service actually has official criteria for using certain words (and phrases) in public forecasts, to the point where they sound redundant. Example: "Snow likely in the morning, followed by a chance of snow in the afternoon." Such wording means the odds favor morning snow over afternoon snow, although both could end up happening.

Weather forecasting is a lot like betting - probability and chances play a huge roll. Being experienced definitely helps, but even champion poker players lose high stakes once in a while.

[Resident 2B]

It is looking more and more like we will get a fairly good snow on Friday. It looks like the UK Met model mentioned yesterday was more "correct" than the other models and now the other models are coming into some agreement with the UK Met.

So, now the question becomes timing, track and storm intensity.

It looks like the timing is still a question mark, but Friday looks like the day. How early or how late on Friday is the question. The track looks like a "coast hugger" right now. This track usually means a mixture of snow and rain along the coast with all snow in the lakes and mountains. The storm track is very important and still a bit of a question. As far as intensity, there is still some uncertainty, but it is shaping up to be a moderate storm with 0.5 to 1.0 inch of liquid. If the ratio of snow to liquid is 10:1, it looks to me like 5" to 10" in the lakes region.

It is still three days away, so things can still change, but that is what it looks like to me today. This is all based on computer models, and they are still more art than science.

In the mean time, tonight's clipper will not bring the lakes region much snow, but it looks like a rapid development once it hits the Atlantic moisture with around 6" on light snow on Cape Cod. They will get more snow tonight than they get on Friday.

It will remain cold for the foreseeable future continuing the "ice build". Good news for most people.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

YYYYYeeeesss!! Yes! Yes! (Sorry.... *deep breath*) It's been almost a year since I last saw a decent snowfall...

Time to look at those models. Oh wait - not yet. Need to fix the new heater I installed in my rain gauge last night. I must remember not to start such projects when cold and more tired than I admit.

[SIKSUKR]

Soory guys,but as a self proclaimed weather nut myself,forcasting snowfall in NE more than a day in advance is like throwing darts at the wall.It's such a fine line whether we have a substantial snowfall in the northeast and where it will fall.You can have all the computer models you want,which I will say can pretty accurately predict there will be a storm forming.But exactly what track and what amounts will fall where is still a pure guess until less than 8 hours prior.I am bonifide snow lover and have watched this stuff for longer than some of you have been alive.Too often I have got myself angered over forecasted snowfall that didn't materialize.I know the process is getting better but we are still a long way a way from predicting snowfall amounts in NE many days before.That being said,I still love to here what you guys are discussing about the models.Having only had about 2-3 inches here in Bedford this year so far,all I'm asking is,Please please please let it snow!

[Resident 2B]

Siksukr and all others,

I never said that forecast models were accurate, so I agree with your opinion. However, they are interesting to review and to some degree projections can be made from them. Exact storm tracks, percise storm intensity and P-type are a real challange for today's models and these variables are so important to what happens during winter storms here in New England.

That said, it is looking like the storm on Firday will effect the Lakes Region, but the snowfall is likely to be on the lower side of my 5"to 10" estimate made yesterday. Today I would guess it will be around 6". Two reasons why: no high pressure area in place to pump in the cold air while the storm is around, and the storm looks to be developing too late and too far away from us to bring snow at the top end of yesterday's estimate. However, I still think it will be within the range served up yesterday.

It will get very cold after the storm passes. The storm will intensify northeast of us and will act as a big pump bringing down some very cold air and we could go well below zero on Sunday and Monday nights.

Again, this is based upon models and we seem to be in agreement that the models are far from perfect.

On the ground hog front, it looks like the local ground hog will not see his shadow on Friday. Based upon folklore, that means an early ice-out as winter will end soon. This is in strong contrast with the weather models that are suggesting a cold and stormy 30 days ahead. We do not seem to be able to get the rodent and the models on the same page.

Time will tell!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Looks like the storm is missing us but more cold on the way. Good to see those ski areas 85-99% open now, with manmade snow from all the cold, and lots of natural snow from upsloping winds in the mountains every time a wave passes.

Looks like some record overnight lows and record low maxes for the daytime Mon-Wed.

A note on those models - one time I interviewed a Plymouth State University meteorology prof. for an article (now posted on http://www.thesilentforest.com/journ...tonweather.htm)
in which he told me that while the models have grown significantly since the 1980s and are still increasing in accuracy as more data (including historical) gets put into them, they can never be perfect without being programmed with measurements for all levels of the atmosphere on the first day of earth's existence, or as he called it "the initial state of the atmosphere." He told me that for as long as the initial state of the atmosphere remains unknown to us, future states of the atmosphere will never be predictable with 100% accuracy. That was as simple as he could put it - he said the full explanation gets into chaos theory and stuff like that.

[SIKSUKR]

The intent of my post was not to discredit anyone posting here or any weather service.I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.I still enjoy watching forecasting,if for nothing else to see how it turns out.As far as snowfall amounts in the Lakes region,I would love to see the 6 inches your forecasting but as I watch this morning,that looks unlikely.I hope I'm wrong.

[Resident 2B]

Although the models looked good for those of us who really like the snow, it is now a long shot, at best, for any moderate storm tomorrow. So, you do not need to spend any time today tuning up the snow blower.

The will be cold later this weekend and early next week. In addition, there is a lot of energy around and with the contrast in temperatures between the cold air and the relatively warm ocean, the area looks ripe for a storm. However, they just do not seem to be forming in an area that gives us the snow most of us want.

So the model driven forecast from earlier this week looks to be wrong, but there is potential for storms in the next 10 days, but nothing that can be specifically forecasted.

The weather news for the area will be the cold air for now.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

I'm just stating what I think is in fact the almost impossible task of estimating snowfall amounts in certain locations in NE days in advance.

How right you are! New England has the most unpredictable weather in the world. While most places get their weather from one or two directions all the time, we're a rare spot in the fact that THREE major storm tracks intersect here, and a fourth one sometimes jumps into the action when storms decide to "retrograde" -- back in off the ocean instead of moving out normally ("The Perfect Storm" of 1991 did that.) We can get air masses originating from the North Pole, the Gulf of Mexico, the US Continent, and the North Atlantic - all in one day.

For that reason there is a study called AIRMAP which is run by UNH and supported by NOAA which is attempting to measure New Engand's patterns for the purpose of making a New England weather model (and air quality.) There are several AIRMAP sites in a South-North line, ascending in elevation, and one of them is at Castle Springs in Moultonborough.

Even this model, however, will never be perfect. Aside from needing "The initial state of the earth's atmosphere", all models also would need to account for the very TINY details that make a huge imact on the weather - like farm fields creating less friction on a storm system than buildings. Even if they did program that info into the models, what would happen when developers bought the fields? Now the multi-trillion dollar super-high resolution weather model needs to be updated by local planning boards (maybe not literally, but you get the point.)

Speaking of models, the latest run seems to be trending tomorrow's snow farther offshore... *sob*

Well at least it still looks like record cold for next week to thicken the ice and help make more snow at the ski areas. R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

R2B the nice thing about being primed for a storm like this is that sooner or later, something's gotta give! Or at least that's how I like to think.

The gun is loaded and it is aimed. Mother Nature just does not want to pull the trigger, for some unknown reason.

You are correct! Sooner or later.......

Enjoy the cold and ice. It is much better than last year.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

While VERY far off, do keep your eyes on next Saturday - that appears to be our next chance of a snowstorm. The latest 10-day GFS takes a storm from the TX panhandle across the Gulf Coast in the latter half of next week, then to the mid-Atlantic coast (DelMarVa) where it becomes very Nor'Easter-looking.

The way this winter has been going I would not be surprised if this, too, got shunted out to sea by the very heavy dome of cold air that has been in residence over us since mid-January. At the same time, the model does show the storm bringing a moderation of the cold air toward the end of the week (moderation meaning "normal cold" in this case.) At this point we (including anti-snow people) definitely do NOT want to see any rain try to move in here. The ground has been chilled beyond belief and this kind of cold air will not leave the lowest altitudes quickly if pushed. We're primed for a huge ice storm if warm/rain does try to surge back in here at some point.

For today... all models coming into agreement that tomorrow's storm is heading out to sea. NGM (aka "No-Good Model") seems to be the only one left showing a closer-to-the-coast track but even that one isn't very close.

The headline now should be the possibility of record cold for the first half of the coming week. After a couple days of near-normal winter temps starting (now), the extreme cold comes roaring back in here Sunday PM to the tune of daytime highs in the + single numbers and overnight lows below zero.

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

[Gatto Nero]

My small contribution for the Winni weather thread. This from PunxsutawneyPhil.com

Phil's official forecast as read 2/2/07 at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob:

El Nino has caused high winds, heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures in the west.
Here in the East with much mild winter weather we have been blessed.

Global warming has caused a great debate.
This mild winter makes it seem just great.

On this Groundhog Day we think of one thing.
Will we have winter or will we have spring?

On Gobbler's Knob I see no shadow today.
I predict that early spring is on the way.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

I would guess that the ski areas will benefit with more natural snow as the cold front passes through, followed by NW winds creating the localized "upslope drafts" to fuel those flakes - and who knows - maybe Winnipesaukee will see another Lake Erie squall survive the long trip to give us 3 or 4 inches, which happened Jan 20.

At the risk of jinxing CLA's call, although it may not be coming directly from Lake Erie, the upslope action looks real for this evening and tonight, as does the 3" to 4" range. This is different snow than the snow I was predicting for Friday. Light, powdery 25:1 stuff that will look great blowing around on the lake after the front passes.

Tough luck with the Groundhog!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Happy Groundhog Day. Jeremy Reiner on WHDH-7 (Boston) just announced that the groundhog has about a 40% accuracy record, but I think Al Roker on NBC-Today said it best this morning: "They have 200 TV camera lights - how can they tell if he saw his shadow?"

Now to today's weather in the Lakes Region. Temps have risen to the upper 20s on Black Cat Island, with winds blowing from the SW (warm & more humid direction.) Skies are cloudy and snow appears on the radar over PA/NY state moving NEward. Based on radar & models I think it'll get here around 7 pm and begin accumulating almost as soon as it starts.

The models are showing an average of .25 inch (liquid equiv.) for the state, with lower amounts near the MA border and higher amounts for the mountains. Average liquid-to-snow ratio seems to be about 20:1 for the state with 25:1 possible (as R2B mentioned) and maybe 15:1 for the MA border. If I were to play it conservative I'd use the 20:1 ratio and guess .30" liquid equiv for the Lakes Region, which comes out to 6 inches snowfall.

We also might see some minor mountain enhancement, like we saw from the Squams/Belknaps/Ossipees on Jan 20 when an "inch or less" was predicted but we ended up with 4 inches (our biggest "storm" this season.) Another factor is that the ground is very cold from recent weather and I don't think any snowflakes will be wasted in "priming" it for accumulation.

An outlying possibility continues to be a lake-effect snow band from Upstate NY surviving the trip to NH. NWS-Burlington is talking about possible thundersnow with the upcoming lake-effect event, which means powerful snow squalls that would have the potential to make that trip and add an inch to what we're already getting.

With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised if we did end up with a few spot-totals of 7 inches tonight, although I have a hard time imagining it given the way this winter has been. I know I'm going out on a limb... However, the trend this morning has been for "upped" totals as this thing approaches, so I'll forecast 4 to 7 inches for the Lakes Region, with any 7-inch amounts (if they occur) near the mountains, and the 4-inches around Laconia.

After this thing passes the headline becomes BRRRRRR! Monday looks to be the coldest day of next week and perhaps of the winter - I'll go with +3 for a high (on Black Cat Island), and windy too.

The last cold blast on January 26 gave Black Cat a daytime high of +4 with a low of -5 and temperatures were below zero for all but 3 hours of that day... and this one looks about the same or slightly cooler.

If you're planning anything in the mountains Sun-Tues, now's a good time to re-think: The summits will likely not rise above -10, with the highest summits even colder, and NW winds of 75+ mph above treeline.

CLA

[SIKSUKR]

I'll go with maybe 3".

[Resident 2B]

This has just been posted.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND TRAVELING COULD
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME TO SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT...A GENERAL 3 TO 6
INCH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MAY CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW BACK OVER TREATED ROADS.
IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BE READY FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

MEZ012-018-019-NHZ004>006-009-010-030800-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SN.Y.0004.070203T0000Z-070203T0800Z/
SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...SOUTH PARIS...
MEXICO...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
NORTH CONWAY...CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...
WOLFEBORO...LACONIA...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...
DOVER...DURHAM
219 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL HEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BETWEEN 500 PM AND 800 PM. THE SNOW
MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES BETWEEN 800 PM AND 100 AM. AT THIS TIME...
VISIBILITIES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY...AND
TRAVELING COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT LATER THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...THE SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER. WINDS PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT WILL CAUSE THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND.

EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY THE TIME THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF LATER TONIGHT. IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BE READY FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND LEAVE
YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.