Nor'easter Monday or not?

[Island Girl]

On the other hand.. here in east central MA we have several inches of snow... still coming down... schools are out.... work was called off... and I am well perched on the couch with a movie... two laptops.. and a bowl of chocolate pudding!!!! Heaven!!!

IG

[upthesaukee]

and we have 5-6 inches on the ground, near whiteout conditions, and it should continue to about sundown with the heaviest snow thru early afternoon, according to the latest weather warning about 10 minutes ago.

[DRH]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

and we have 5-6 inches on the ground, near whiteout conditions, and it should continue to about sundown with the heaviest snow thru early afternoon, according to the latest weather warning about 10 minutes ago.

We have the same 6" here in West Alton at 10:50 AM, and it's snowing like gangbusters!

CORRECTION/UPDATE!

Quilt Lady just came in from "up the hill" and reports that she measured 11" of snow in three places in our driveway!

[cursereversed]

I'm here in downtown Laconia, at work , and we have 6-8 inches here at 12 noon. Snow is predicted until 7pm, and we should get 10-12 inches. Doesn't seem like good snowball snow, though

[Weirs guy]

Franklins got about 5" so far (1/2 hour from the Weirs). I noticed some blowing/drifting this morning before I left so this may be (as DRH noted) one of those 0" - 48" events depending on where you stand.

[Resident 2B]

The link below will connect you to NWS Spotter reports for snow depths from today's storm.

http://www.weather.gov/view/validPro...=PNS&node=KGYX

R2B

[MAXUM]

So any one have a prediction on the next storm due in the end of this week? Accuweather is saying another storm, only stronger. Another foot or so of snow would really be a nice finishing touch for the snowmobile trails this weekend.

[rander7823]

This is a very interesting thread and I enjoy reading about all of the sophisticated models so I thought I'd chime in with the equipment and formula's I use.
First I use the DGCT ( Dodge Grand Caravan Thermometer). I live in Southern NE it read 42 F at 7:00 PM last night. No Snow Coming) Inspite of the 10 inches they continued to predict.

Second I use the CTVR. (Cable Televison Remote) I switch each local news channel and gather snow depth predictions for all local news networks.

Now here comes the tricky part I then count the number of times each meteorologist says, "might, possible, potential for, if the storm follows this path, most models predict" I take that number and divide the average snowfall estimates by it and get the resulting estimated snowfall. At 10PM I look out the door and see if there are clouds or not.

I then inform my 13 year old daughter that inspite of what Dr Mel, Jeff Fox and Hilton Kaderly and Matt say she will be going to school. That sigh she gives off usually tips the scales and we get rain. Now this seems to work for Southern NE not sure of it will in the Lakes Region.

[trfour]

Are Awesome!
My thanks to Rose, CLA, R2B and others for making these threads fun and so interesting.

After last winter, or should I say.. lack there of in the snow and ice department, I wanted to get the "snow" ball rolling early for this winter, so I added "Snow Dance" in PhotoPost.
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...hp?photo=11858

Snow Dance worked well, though we may need some help from the ice Gods.

[hilltopper]

4" here in Meredith......

[mcdude]

Matt Noyes reported on NECN that 5" per hour was coming down in Gilmanton at one point this morning! The NWS Spotter (thanks resident 2B) is predicting 13" total for Alton Bay and Gilmanton. You snowmobilers and skiiers are really lucking out this season!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Rander 7823, I loved your response for its hilariousness! But comedians often say comedy is funny because we find truthfulness in it, and there is truth in what you say. Many meteorologists would deny it.

Forecasters totally blew it in New Jersey and NYC today because they weren't paying enough attention to the thermometer, and too much attention to the models. NJ and NYC got all the moisture that the models said would come, but it was too warm. Where did I see this? The NBC Today Show opened with it, this morning at 7 a.m. Jeff Ranieri (the meteorologist they always interview when the weather is too serious for the way they usually treat weather) said it when they interviewed him-- "It was just too warm."

A meteorologist on Mount Washington told me of the meteorologist's "non-reality" syndrome the last time I volunteered at the summit. With a degree from Rutgers, he could've made lots of money somewhere else, but preferred a job on Mt. Washington where there isn't much money. He said he had done his internship at a National Weather Service office in summertime. When a severe weather outbreak was happening right outside, he wanted to go out and look. The NWS staff told him not to get in the habit of leaving the computer screens. They said, "Don't let the weather distract you from the weather." In other words, they're glued to the computer models. A lot of times, they have to be... but there ARE many times when your Dodge Grand Caravan Thermometer could totally save their accuracy -- if they only believed in something so simple. The guy on Mount Washington said he enjoyed the fact that his job is mixed between time spent at computer terminals and time spent outside, actually measuring and observing the summit's weather personally.

Today on Black Cat we got shafted again. Would you believe only 2.6 inches of snow fell today. I did drive to Meredith where I found, as Hilltopper said, 4 inches of snow. Here is my guess -- the mountain effects I mentioned last night got a bit more out of control than I thought they would -- or could! The highest totals I've seen today seem to come (mostly) from north- or east-facing slopes, or very near the summit on the other side. However, when one side of a mountain gets topographically-enhanced snow, usually the other side gets a lot less -- it's called "shadowing". Today, I believe we at the NW end of Winnipesaukee got shadowed by the Ossipees and Red Hill. Based on the radar signature, I would say we were too far away from the main part of the storm for it to make up the difference. We were getting the fringes, and they didn't have enough energy to survive the 'milking' they got when they rode up and over the mountains to our north and east.

[DRH]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

Today on Black Cat we got shafted again. Would you believe only 2.6 inches of snow fell today. I did drive to Meredith where I found, as Hilltopper said, 4 inches of snow. Here is my guess -- the mountain effects I mentioned last night got a bit more out of control than I thought they would -- or could! The highest totals I've seen today seem to come (mostly) from north- or east-facing slopes, or very near the summit on the other side. However, when one side of a mountain gets topographically-enhanced snow, usually the other side gets a lot less -- it's called "shadowing". Today, I believe we at the NW end of Winnipesaukee got shadowed by the Ossipees and Red Hill. Based on the radar signature, I would say we were too far away from the main part of the storm for it to make up the difference. We were getting the fringes, and they didn't have enough energy to survive the 'milking' they got when they rode up and over the mountains to our north and east.

It's quite interesting how much the local snow accumulations differed around the lake today. Here in West Alton, we had a total of 12" when the storm finally wound down this afternoon. The air temp. averaged about 23 - 25 degs during most of the snowfall, but what fell as light, fluffy snow packed down as the inches accumulated and the resulting foot was much denser than I had expected. In fact, a shear pin actually snapped in my snowblower's auger this afternoon while I was clearing away what turned out to be 12" of fairly heavy snow!

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by DRH

It's quite interesting how much the local snow accumulations differed around the lake today. Here in West Alton, we had a total of 12" when the storm finally wound down this afternoon. The air temp. averaged about 23 - 25 degs during most of the snowfall, but what fell as light, fluffy snow packed down as the inches accumulated and the resulting foot was much denser than I had expected. In fact, a shear pin actually snapped in my snowblower's auger this afternoon while I was clearing away what turned out to be 12" of fairly heavy snow!

As I walked out the door this morning at 11, what had looked like 5-6 inches on the deck railing, was literally 12 inches measured in several places on our driveway. I am guessing that we ended up with at least two more inches after I left, but no way to tell now. Weather radar had some pretty heavy bands of snow showing this morning and it looks like the SE end of the lake was right in the way of them.

[CanisLupusArctos]

When I couldn't find any spot with more than 2.75 inches of snow either in the yard or in the street, I honestly thought something was wrong... because I'd already read the Alton/Gilford/Wolfeborough reports. However, the reality set in, as I swept the front porch and walkway in just seconds, and had cleared the driveway (with a small shovel) 5 minutes later.

R2B - you mention the hills to the *west* as being responsible for today's shadowing. Actually the flow was NNE all day - it ended up being the average wind direction for the day. I can't remember the last time we had a snowstorm with that much of a northerly wind.

Most of the accumulating snow here fell until 10 a.m. At that time, as the station's wind graph indicates, the direction shifted from ENE to NNE. Once that happened, *bam*, it was like someone turned a faucet off. The whole time, I could see the view to the south obscured by snow, and there wasn't much in the (SE-facing) WeatherCam all day but white... it just wasn't in the foreground of the picture. Directly NNE of here, we have the Ossipees. The shadowed area follows a line from the Ossipees to Black Cat to Meredith Bay, and the amounts increase with distance from the Ossipees.

Tonight when the wind shifted to more northerly I noticed the mountains apparently playing a role again. The steady snow had ended and most of the lake was precip-free. In one of the frames of the radar loop, I saw a blob of snow literally form out of clear air, just north of Red Hill's location, and 2 frames later the same thing happened just north of the Belknap Range - on the southern shore of the lake. Neither blob moved.... they lasted for a few more frames right where they were, and then dissipated.

[hilltopper]

Interesting....I wouldn't have guessed shadowing because the Ossippee range is "small" by mountain range standards. But, peeking at a map and knowing who got what for snow, it makes a lot of sense. Mother Nature owes us one so hopefully for the next one the winds setup a bit differently (unless of course it's all ice...yikes).

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

R2B - you mention the hills to the *west* as being responsible for today's shadowing. Actually the flow was NNE all day - it ended up being the average wind direction for the day. I can't remember the last time we had a snowstorm with that much of a northerly wind.

CLA,

Good and accurate point. It looks like the northerly vector of the winds had a big impact. Looking at the location of the hills to the NNE of you, I agree that had to happen. In addition, the winds were NNE because the high to the NE was not that strong. This is why the surface warmed up so much in northeastern Mass. The "cold air pump" was not pumping much. If the high was stronger, the wind would have been more NE or ENE.

R2B

[NHKathy]

with the varied amounts around the Lake, i was just curious how much fell around Moultonborough Neck ...

[CanisLupusArctos]

R2B, What you say about the high not being that strong -- this is starting to make a lot more sense now, in comparison to more typical storms. Usually Nor'Easters bring more of an easterly wind than northerly. I've found the lake's geographic alignment (NW-SE) likes to bend wind to those directions if they're similar enough. Even the other night when everyone else was reporting NE winds (while this storm was approaching) this station was getting winds straight up the lake from the SE... "The Rattlesnake Express."

This may also explain a lot in relation to past storms: As a typical Nor'Easter passes, its wind will go to north for 1-3 hours, before the Northwesterly backside kicks in. As I remember, at that point in the storm, the snow has always either shut down to flurries/patches of clear sky, or at least tapered off significantly, even while everyone else was continuing to snow moderately. Then, the NW winds kick in, and we get the backside squalls with another inch or two of accumulation.

Therefore, this may help predict future snow at this end of the lake. Based on this, my guess is that in order for the Center Harbor end of the lake to get a storm's full potential snowfall, the storm needs to provide most or all of its snowfall while it's still far enough down the coast to give us its East or NE winds. Once it's close enough to shift our winds more northerly, we could predict that snow will shut down at this end of the lake until the storm passes and shifts our winds to the NW.

On the flipside of the coin, we could forecast enhanced snowfall for all windward slopes around the lake during the same situations. This sort of localized feature would not be picked up by the models at all (at least not for a few more years).

NHKathy, I'm going to guess that Moultonborough Neck didn't get any more than here at Black Cat (2.7 inches). Other snowfall reports seem to draw a line from the Ossipees directly SSW, and the closer you get to the Ossipees on that line, the less snow there was.

[CanisLupusArctos]

R2B, What you say about the high not being that strong -- this is starting to make a lot more sense now, in comparison to more typical storms. Usually Nor'Easters bring more of an easterly wind than northerly. I've found the lake's geographic alignment (NW-SE) likes to bend wind to those directions if they're similar enough. Even the other night when everyone else was reporting NE winds (while this storm was approaching) this station was getting winds straight up the lake from the SE... "The Rattlesnake Express."

This may also explain a lot in relation to past storms: As a typical Nor'Easter passes, its wind will go to north for 1-3 hours, before the Northwesterly backside kicks in. As I remember, at that point in the storm, the snow has always either shut down to flurries/patches of clear sky, or at least tapered off significantly, even while everyone else was continuing to snow moderately. Then, the NW winds kick in, and we get the backside squalls with another inch or two of accumulation.

Therefore, this may help predict future snow at this end of the lake. Based on this, my guess is that in order for the Center Harbor end of the lake to get a storm's full potential snowfall, the storm needs to provide most or all of its snowfall while it's still far enough down the coast to give us its East or NE winds. Once it's close enough to shift our winds more northerly, we could predict that snow will shut down at this end of the lake until the storm passes and shifts our winds to the NW.

On the flipside of the coin, we could forecast enhanced snowfall for all windward slopes around the lake during the same situations. This sort of localized feature would not be picked up by the models at all (at least not for a few more years).

NHKathy, I'm going to guess that Moultonborough Neck didn't get any more than here at Black Cat (2.7 inches). Other snowfall reports seem to draw a line from the Ossipees directly SSW, and the closer you get to the Ossipees on that line, the less snow there was.

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

Talk about local affects. This is so hard to believe. Per NWS, as reported on their spotter network at Gray, Me., Alton had 13", Wolfboro had 13" and Laconia had 11.6". Although we all thought the lakes region would be on the northern edge, Meridith only had 4" and you measured 2.6" in Center Harbor. This fall-off in snow depths is amazing.

I agree the "milking" of the hills had an impact in Meredith and in Center Harbor, but Wolfboro reported 13" without any hill to their west to do the "milking". I can understand that it did not get milked, but the southern parts of the lake had a moderate + snowfall, and Meredith and Center Harbor had very little.

I was down in the North Shore area of Mass. during this storm. The snow down there was less than I had expected, with about 7", but the water content was very high. Bottom line, it was warmer than expected and we got a 7:1 snow. The temp went up four degrees from 7:00 PM to Midnight last night and that had a big impact.

Otherwise, the storm was very close to the 40/70 benchmark and was a bit lower in pressure when it passed the benchmark than the models predicted. If anything from a track and intensity stand point, it was what we expected. However, the variability in snowfall, in places around the lake that are very close together, really messes with my mind.

I guess this is why we love the weather here in New England!

Now on to the Thursday night and Friday morning event. I have concerns about ice with this and it will be followed with very cold air. This pairing could be very dangerous if the ice takes the power down! I think a new thread would be the best place to elaborate on this.

I have not seen much in the models for Monday, but I still think something might come up. Time will tell.

R2B

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by cursereversed

I'm here in downtown Laconia, at work , and we have 6-8 inches here at 12 noon. Snow is predicted until 7pm, and we should get 10-12 inches. Doesn't seem like good snowball snow, though

Look for some yellow snow.

It should be wet enough for making snowballs - just don't eat it...