Very Cold Weather thru Jan.17

tpabrad · 01-14-2009, 02:22 AM

Hi guys, I visit the area every winter and have been watching these boards for a while, may have posted once, cant remember though.

I live on the west coast of Florida, so we have an interesting weather pattern here. During the summer I track and watch the hurricanes, and usually watch them go around us. In my almost 30 years of living here we havent been hit too bad. Unfortunately that will change one day.

I never really paid attention to the weather up north until I started visiting 2 years ago.

One interesting comment that was made was how the storms bring up the warm from the south to meet up with the cold and cause the snowstorms. When these cold fronts hit us its always in the high 60's or 70's and then once the storm passes it gets cold. I know it hasnt snowed in this area in about 30 years. I would think we would have to get multiple cold fronts to go by with the right timing for it to happen again.

We have 2 going through us right now and its supposed to get into the low 30's in a day or two. Probably not cold for you guys, but thats pretty cold for us warm blooded folk!

Anyways keep up the great discussions, always good information to be read!

Brad

CanisLupusArctos · 01-14-2009, 10:00 AM

R2B is right in saying this will likely flop over to a warm spell. That's what happens. All winter long, the cold air tends to punch down from Canada on one side of the country or another. In response, the warm air bounces up where the cold air isn't punching down. When the western US gets the bitter cold punching down from Canada, the southern warm air reacts by bouncing up, and so we get warmth like what we had between Christmas and New Years.

Then it all flopped, with the cold air moving east and barging the warmth out of its way, and here we are. He also brings up a good point - storms are great agents of change in weather patterns. The stronger the storm, the more likely it is that the pattern will be different after it passes. The best example I've seen recently was the historic nor'easter of April 15-17, 2007. That one started off as snow, changed to rain, cleared a foot of clear ice from the lake with 45 mph sustained winds, lots of damage, but by the time it was over the lake was almost at iceout, and the weather pattern was favorable for warm air to move in. A week later, we were hitting 80 and iceout was declared.

No major pattern change for at least the next several days, however. This is dangerous cold for the entire area. For the rest of the week, we will not likely see 10 degrees again until maybe Saturday, perhaps Sunday.

On Black Cat Island we had snow showers while the front passed, then the wind picked up to 30 mph in the predawn hours, bringing in the cold. Temps since sunrise have been in the single numbers and continue to fall. An hour ago we were at 7 degrees... now we are 4 degrees. This trend will continue.

Tomorrow will have a high of about 5. Tomorrow night will be the coldest night in at least 2 years for much of the area... I would not be surprised to see a reading of 20 below zero (actual air temp) somewhere in the lakes region on Friday morning.

Friday's high will probably not reach zero. I'll go for a high of 2 below zero on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being colder.

Friday and Saturday nights will be "warmer" but still below zero. Doesn't look like we start to see moderation in the cold air until early next week. As R2B stated, it may take a storm to change the pattern.

jeffk · 01-14-2009, 12:56 PM

Does anyone have a rough estimate of how fast the ice thickens?

I know there are a bunch of factors, thickness of existing ice, snow cover, wind, currents, sun, clouds, etc. I'm not looking for an exact answer, just a rule of thumb.

Something like, for example, at 10 degrees a bare (no snow cover) ice surface will add about 1 inch of ice a day. You could then guesstimate a 4 day cold snap with temps 10 degrees or lower could add a half foot of ice or so.

I've poked around a bit and I found some rather complex formulas but no simple estimates.

This'nThat · 01-14-2009, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeffk

Does anyone have a rough estimate of how fast the ice thickens?

The best rule of thumb is about 2cm/day ~ 1 inch per day for very cold days (`-25 C, -13F) and 15" ice thickness. Less if the ice is thick; more if the air temperature is colder; less with snow on the ice; more if you're on fresh water rather than sea water.

Go to the last 2 pages of this article to see some graphs (produced by NOAA) at various temperatures, ice thickness, and snow cover for sea water.

SAMIAM · 01-15-2009, 12:09 PM

Brad is the only smart one among us......he's watching all this as the sun melts the ice cubes in his margarita.Hopefully,we can sneak down to Ft Myers sometime this year.

tpabrad · 01-15-2009, 01:08 PM

Second cold front is passing over us today and we have a freeze warning in effect for tonight (ok stop laughing

). Freeze warnings are pretty rare this far south. We maybe get it once a season. So no ice melting weather today

fpartri497 · 01-15-2009, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAMIAM

Brad is the only smart one among us......he's watching all this as the sun melts the ice cubes in his margarita.Hopefully,we can sneak down to Ft Myers sometime this year.

Im In Ft. myers right now and Its cold!!!!! About 63 deg. I guess its better than being In concord NH right now though.

BoulderBronco · 01-15-2009, 02:53 PM

Whats the deal with the temp today? It says 14* on this site, 13* on weather.com for Meredith, yet weather.com says there is a forecast high today of 7*. Is it really 13* up there now or is the weather channel just failing at updating their forecasts?

hilltopper · 01-15-2009, 03:04 PM

Almost 13 degrees at Black Cat Island.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

CanisLupusArctos · 01-15-2009, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hilltopper

Almost 13 degrees at Black Cat Island.

http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/

...and that's as high as we got today: A high of 12.8 degrees.

It just slipped below zero. Currently falling at 2.3 degrees per hour. Do not expect tomorrow to be as "warm" as today.

01-14-2009, 02:22 AM	#1
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Great weather talk! Hi guys, I visit the area every winter and have been watching these boards for a while, may have posted once, cant remember though. I live on the west coast of Florida, so we have an interesting weather pattern here. During the summer I track and watch the hurricanes, and usually watch them go around us. In my almost 30 years of living here we havent been hit too bad. Unfortunately that will change one day. I never really paid attention to the weather up north until I started visiting 2 years ago. One interesting comment that was made was how the storms bring up the warm from the south to meet up with the cold and cause the snowstorms. When these cold fronts hit us its always in the high 60's or 70's and then once the storm passes it gets cold. I know it hasnt snowed in this area in about 30 years. I would think we would have to get multiple cold fronts to go by with the right timing for it to happen again. We have 2 going through us right now and its supposed to get into the low 30's in a day or two. Probably not cold for you guys, but thats pretty cold for us warm blooded folk! Anyways keep up the great discussions, always good information to be read! Brad

01-14-2009, 12:56 PM	#3
jeffk Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,246 Thanks: 216 Thanked 483 Times in 277 Posts	How fast does ice thicken? Does anyone have a rough estimate of how fast the ice thickens? I know there are a bunch of factors, thickness of existing ice, snow cover, wind, currents, sun, clouds, etc. I'm not looking for an exact answer, just a rule of thumb. Something like, for example, at 10 degrees a bare (no snow cover) ice surface will add about 1 inch of ice a day. You could then guesstimate a 4 day cold snap with temps 10 degrees or lower could add a half foot of ice or so. I've poked around a bit and I found some rather complex formulas but no simple estimates.

01-15-2009, 01:08 PM	#6
tpabrad Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 58 Thanks: 5 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Were feeling it too Second cold front is passing over us today and we have a freeze warning in effect for tonight (ok stop laughing ). Freeze warnings are pretty rare this far south. We maybe get it once a season. So no ice melting weather today

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01-14-2009, 10:00 AM	#2
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	R2B is right in saying this will likely flop over to a warm spell. That's what happens. All winter long, the cold air tends to punch down from Canada on one side of the country or another. In response, the warm air bounces up where the cold air isn't punching down. When the western US gets the bitter cold punching down from Canada, the southern warm air reacts by bouncing up, and so we get warmth like what we had between Christmas and New Years. Then it all flopped, with the cold air moving east and barging the warmth out of its way, and here we are. He also brings up a good point - storms are great agents of change in weather patterns. The stronger the storm, the more likely it is that the pattern will be different after it passes. The best example I've seen recently was the historic nor'easter of April 15-17, 2007. That one started off as snow, changed to rain, cleared a foot of clear ice from the lake with 45 mph sustained winds, lots of damage, but by the time it was over the lake was almost at iceout, and the weather pattern was favorable for warm air to move in. A week later, we were hitting 80 and iceout was declared. No major pattern change for at least the next several days, however. This is dangerous cold for the entire area. For the rest of the week, we will not likely see 10 degrees again until maybe Saturday, perhaps Sunday. On Black Cat Island we had snow showers while the front passed, then the wind picked up to 30 mph in the predawn hours, bringing in the cold. Temps since sunrise have been in the single numbers and continue to fall. An hour ago we were at 7 degrees... now we are 4 degrees. This trend will continue. Tomorrow will have a high of about 5. Tomorrow night will be the coldest night in at least 2 years for much of the area... I would not be surprised to see a reading of 20 below zero (actual air temp) somewhere in the lakes region on Friday morning. Friday's high will probably not reach zero. I'll go for a high of 2 below zero on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being colder. Friday and Saturday nights will be "warmer" but still below zero. Doesn't look like we start to see moderation in the cold air until early next week. As R2B stated, it may take a storm to change the pattern.

01-15-2009, 12:09 PM	#5
SAMIAM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonborough Posts: 2,937 Thanks: 349 Thanked 1,708 Times in 602 Posts	Brad is the only smart one among us......he's watching all this as the sun melts the ice cubes in his margarita.Hopefully,we can sneak down to Ft Myers sometime this year.

01-15-2009, 02:53 PM	#8
BoulderBronco Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 121 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	Whats the deal with the temp today? It says 14* on this site, 13* on weather.com for Meredith, yet weather.com says there is a forecast high today of 7. Is it really 13 up there now or is the weather channel just failing at updating their forecasts?

01-15-2009, 03:04 PM	#9
hilltopper Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Meredith Posts: 730 Thanks: 25 Thanked 109 Times in 70 Posts	Almost 13 degrees at Black Cat Island. http://www.blackcatnh.com/weather/