Staffing Issues for Summer of 2021

[Biggd]

Demand will drop just as the extra unemployment payments stop so it will all stabilize after Labor Day.
The people that are trying to run out their extra unemployment monies until the end will be disappointed when all the hiring bonuses and prime openings dry up.
If you're looking for a job there's no better time than now to jump in.

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[John Mercier]

Really?
So you aren't going to build that screen room and deck?

That is the demand side...

[XCR-700]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

In this case, they are determining how many individuals in each area are collecting UE compensation.
The thought process is as the compensation amount declines, those individuals will instead seek active employment.
Since the number actually collecting is low, businesses do not expect an on-rush of applicants.

Oddly, it isn't a labor issue, it is a demand issue.

It is also not a measure of how many people are actually unemployed, its a very filtered and corrected measure of a segment of the population that are not working but who were recently working.

We do such strange things with the raw data it begs the question of what are we really trying to accomplish. I truly dont know anymore.

Given all the the effort and expense that goes into publishing this date, I hope its useful to someone. I personally dont get much out of it and it doesnt provide me helpful information to gauge the condition of the economy or the success of the politicians in delivering on their campaign rhetoric.

[Biggd]

I'm buiding it myself, cheap labor.

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Really?
So you aren't going to build that screen room and deck?

That is the demand side...

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[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by XCR-700

It is also not a measure of how many people are actually unemployed, its a very filtered and corrected measure of a segment of the population that are not working but who were recently working.

We do such strange things with the raw data it begs the question of what are we really trying to accomplish. I truly dont know anymore.

Given all the the effort and expense that goes into publishing this date, I hope its useful to someone. I personally dont get much out of it and it doesnt provide me helpful information to gauge the condition of the economy or the success of the politicians in delivering on their campaign rhetoric.

For NH, and more accurately the Laconia district, we are looking at those that are collecting benefits. People that are ''unemployed'' and not collecting benefits will not be effected by the cut in federal benefits... because they are not collecting any benefits.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I'm buiding it myself, cheap labor.

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Materials?
Labor is involved in a lot more than just building the structure.

We have to employ people in the yard to unload and put the product away, clerks to take the orders, and if you need delivery... then we need a truck driver.

The demand is not going down.
Sales and tickets (those are the invoices for the sales) are up roughly 40 percent this year over last... and that is with the shortage of material supply.

Two years ago, I could cover windows, doors, decking, siding, and roofing. We now have a five person team to cover the retail customers that walk-in... and are still at times coming up short on coverage for the customer service that we think should be the norm.

It will take a while before the New Money crowd now moving into the area settles down.
Once that happens, the demand on local labor will level off.
But I would not hazard a guess as to when that will be.

[phoenix]

it wont help the VK this summer

[John Mercier]

I don't think it will be this one year.
The demographics in the area have skewed to an older generation.

The old ''family tourism'' dynamic that used to run from during the summer vacation from school, and that we tried to expand into the early spring and late fall with weekend events has been replaced for the time being by near retirement/retired individuals/couples.

Since the largest number of Boomers were born in 1959, and will not turn 65 (Medicare) until 2024... I think the current situation still has ''legs''.

[Biggd]

I hope you're right. This expansion has gone on longer than I expected it would. But then, Covid thru a wrench in all predictions and no one knew how it was going to shake out and still don't.
It's better to be busy and under staffed rather than slow and over staffed.

Originally Posted by John Mercier

I don't think it will be this one year.

The demographics in the area have skewed to an older generation.

The old ''family tourism'' dynamic that used to run from during the summer vacation from school, and that we tried to expand into the early spring and late fall with weekend events has been replaced for the time being by near retirement/retired individuals/couples.

Since the largest number of Boomers were born in 1959, and will not turn 65 (Medicare) until 2024... I think the current situation still has ''legs''.

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[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I hope you're right. This expansion has gone on longer than I expected it would. But then, Covid thru a wrench in all predictions and no one knew how it was going to shake out and still don't.
It's better to be busy and under staffed rather than slow and over staffed.

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I expect it to go on much longer.
I think we will see the phenomena in the lakes region for at least another decade. Lots of Boomers looking to retire... many of them New Money.

[sky's]

Originally Posted by tis

I don't think the amount of pay is the issue. We can't even get a qualified person to apply.

thats the correct answer. the all about me generation expects there cake and eat it to. thanks to Sleepy Creepy Joe. go tell heaths grocery store they have to pay more money and guess what the answer will be.

[Biggd]

I hate to say it but most of these kids are making more money without even working, and it's not from unemployment. They are all gamblers. During Covid they went from gambling on sports to gambling on stocks. Many of these kids haven't experienced a down turn yet. When that happens they will feel the cruel reality of losing everything with no way to stop the bleeding. They are all day traders and that's what's propping up the markets. Wait until they all start heading for the doors at the same time.
This has been going on for 12 years now. It started long before sleepy Joe.

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[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I hate to say it but most of these kids are making more money without even working, and it's not from unemployment. They are all gamblers. During Covid they went from gambling on sports to gambling on stocks. Many of these kids haven't experienced a down turn yet. When that happens they will feel the cruel reality of losing everything with no way to stop the bleeding. They are all day traders and that's what's propping up the markets. Wait until they all start heading for the doors at the same time.
This has been going on for 12 years now. It started long before sleepy Joe.

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How many "kids" do you know to make this generalization?! I mean, I teach seniors in high school and continue to keep touch with many of them, and I know half a dozen of hundreds that gamble. The other 99.9% are working their butts off (too many hours in my estimation).

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[Biggd]

Not so much high school but after high school. Kids in school aren't collecting unemployment. Most high school kids are still being subsidized by their parents. My youngest is 33 so I'm not talking about youngsters.
My son has made quite a bit of money over the past 10 years in the market. I try to stress upon him the risk and that the market can drop a lot faster then it goes up. All the kids he grew up with are doing the same thing, risky business.

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

How many "kids" do you know to make this generalization?! I mean, I teach seniors in high school and continue to keep touch with many of them, and I know half a dozen of hundreds that gamble. The other 99.9% are working their butts off (too many hours in my estimation).
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[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

How many "kids" do you know to make this generalization?! I mean, I teach seniors in high school and continue to keep touch with many of them, and I know half a dozen of hundreds that gamble. The other 99.9% are working their butts off (too many hours in my estimation).

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They work pretty hard. Even the high school employees we have are pretty hard working. Fast and very quick to adapt.

Just not enough of them for the increased demand. I do more than four times the business that I used to do, and we now have five of us doing the same thing.

I think that business managers, and customers, need to adapt to more efficient use of the labor force.

As for the difference that I have seen in their investment-style, more of a "Bogle" approach with index funds compared to the older generations use of target funds. They don't tend to trade more often, but do have to make an allocation adjustment at least once a year.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

They work pretty hard. Even the high school employees we have are pretty hard working. Fast and very quick to adapt.

Just not enough of them for the increased demand. I do more than four times the business that I used to do, and we now have five of us doing the same thing.

I think that business managers, and customers, need to adapt to more efficient use of the labor force.

As for the difference that I have seen in their investment-style, more of a "Bogle" approach with index funds compared to the older generations use of target funds. They don't tend to trade more often, but do have to make an allocation adjustment at least once a year.

They must be behind the kids in the cities like Boston and NY as far as investing. Most of those kids are investing in Crypto currencies and NFT's which are highly volatile but are taking off right now. They start out with Crypto and from there they buy all their other investments with their crypto profits. It's gambling, as far as I'm concerned! The NFT market is crazy right now. I don't understand it so stay far away from anything I can't wrap my head around, or wrap my fingers around.

[John Mercier]

You mistake being more conservative for being less sophisticated.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

You mistake being more conservative for being less sophisticated.

Great point. Pretty much everything about cryptocurrency, NFTs, and meme stocks flies in the face of finance theory and should cause sophisticated investors deep confusion and discomfort.

Do you really trust an anonymous black box such as Bitcoin with your life savings? Is one digital file that is indistinguishable from another digital file really worth more, simply because you have an NFT that shows the first file was created first? Do you really think that Game Stop is worth 10X what the professionals believe?

[John Mercier]

I don't think those investors are any less sophisticated... just more New Money rather than Old Money in the attitudes.

Most think those two markers are about how much wealth someone has rather than the attitude on life that they have.

Tortoise and the Hare.
New Money is more like the Hare, flashy and focused on now.
Old Money is more like the Tortoise... conservative and focused over the generations.

[thinkxingu]

I just heard a phrase I hadn't heard previously and thought I'd share an article that corresponds to the "great resignation."

I've not read this yet but thought I'd put it here for thoughts. Have any business owners seen a "return to work" movement since the unemployment benefits have been cancelled?

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/10079...-saying-i-quit

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[WinnisquamZ]

Discussed this same issue this morning as my daughter had someone quit at 9:30 today. We believe the individual had been hired by a west coast company and had to call in. Call in to work, never thought I would read that as normal. Low unemployment, work from home, and no ties by a employer makes it easy to shift from one company to another.


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[phoenix]

Quits are up, available jobs still high, lots of people not looking . Don't know what it means for country over next 10-20 years but to me it means we need more immigration as they tend to work hard, are from countries with nothing and generally believe in the American dream of yesteryear. that is work hard to get ahead for their families

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by phoenix

Quits are up, available jobs still high, lots of people not looking . Don't know what it means for country over next 10-20 years but to me it means we need more immigration as they tend to work hard, are from countries with nothing and generally believe in the American dream of yesteryear. that is work hard to get ahead for their families

Agreed on the right type of immigration!!

I am a partner in a 10 person security consulting firm based in MA that does business internationally. We have recently brought 2 new, very good people onboard. One is located in TX, the other is in SC. I know a big factor is getting them on was not having to come into our office regularly, only to client sites as needed.

There are some people that are just going to take the summer off knowing that the HR process is very slow this time of year.

[Tank151]

New Hampshire is going to struggle, especially competing with border states when their minimum wages are much higher than NH...

New England Minimum wage rates:

New Hampshire $7.25 per hour
Vermont $11.25 per hour
Maine $12.15 per hour
Massachusetts $13.50 per hour

[John Mercier]

It has very little to do with hard work.
Plenty of jobs mean that they can take the one that best suits them.
And plenty of customers mean that we can pick and choose which to do business with.

[8gv]

As we drive down the main drag in most towns wifey makes note of the help wanted signs.

She suggests that even I could now get hired.

The trouble is that the employer would want me to show up for work at a certain time and day.

That doesn't suit my schedule.

I guess I shall remain... unemployable.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by 8gv

As we drive down the main drag in most towns wifey makes note of the help wanted signs.

She suggests that even I could now get hired.

The trouble is that the employer would want me to show up for work at a certain time and day.

That doesn't suit my schedule.

I guess I shall remain... unemployable.

You bring up a new reality, though, I think: all those retired people I know no longer want to bother with work. I mean, who wants to be a Walmart greeter for $10 these days (besides maybe FLL)?!

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[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by phoenix

Quits are up, available jobs still high, lots of people not looking . Don't know what it means for country over next 10-20 years but to me it means we need more immigration as they tend to work hard, are from countries with nothing and generally believe in the American dream of yesteryear. that is work hard to get ahead for their families

I would respectfully disagree.

Legal immigration, yes. But many of the people breaking in to our country are here for the free ride, free medical, or even worse, to commit crimes (Other that the one they committed by breaking into the country)

The number of unemployed roughly equals the number of job openings. In other words, if you shut off 100% of unemployment benefits the unemployment rate would get to near zero because people would need jobs to survive. The system has made it too easy to be lazy and too many have taken advantage of it.

In the current economy there is no reason for someone to say that they cannot find a job unless their mental or physical limitations prevent them from working. Many employers I know are practically begging for people to work and many available positions are for entry level jobs.

[John Mercier]

Your numbers are bad.
Employment is a local situation, and locally we would need four times the number of unemployed to meet the current known demand for employees.

No one would ''escape'' a country with constitutionally-ingrained free healthcare to come to one without it for the express purpose of free healthcare.

And the concept of immigration restriction is a relatively modern concept based on the Reserve Army of Labor Theory.

[phoenix]

i never said i support illegal immigration. The number of temporary visas for summer help have been reduced and these were many workers that handled summer work. Give more of them out to help the country wide summer jobs. Prior to the change in laws in the 60's Mexican labor could flow back and forth and did. There was little interest in becoming American citizens but wanted to work in seasonal jobs and go back home when done.

[TiltonBB]

In states that ended expanded unemployment benefits claims have dropped 41% in the past 6 weeks. In states that continue to pay the higher amount claims have only dropped 33% in the same 6 week period.

That makes it pretty obvious that some people who could be working are staying home collecting the "free" money.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

In states that ended expanded unemployment benefits claims have dropped 41% in the past 6 weeks. In states that continue to pay the higher amount claims have only dropped 33% in the same 6 week period.



That makes it pretty obvious that some people who could be working are staying home collecting the "free" money.

8% isn't that "obvious."

Also, just doing a quick research piece now, it seems like that number is directly affected by a state's unemployment rate. So, 33% drop in a state with lower unemployment to begin with is as good/better than the alternative.

I'd be interested to find out the percentage of people who "can't" just take another job and are waiting for the "right" because of the financial need piece. Specifically, a software engineer who was making $100k can't just take a MacDonald's gig making $10/hr. and meet the bills, etc.

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[jeffk]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I just heard a phrase I hadn't heard previously and thought I'd share an article that corresponds to the "great resignation."

I've not read this yet but thought I'd put it here for thoughts. Have any business owners seen a "return to work" movement since the unemployment benefits have been cancelled?

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/10079...-saying-i-quit

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Interesting article.

I would point out that, like the people in this article, many people have been stressed out either by COVID issues, resulting short staffing, or by the nature of their jobs in general. Some feel under paid and/or unappreciated.

OK.

Like the software developer, some people are looking for job satisfaction/life balance. Great. But guess what. The nature of work is better paying jobs come with higher skill requirements and demands for performance and responsibility. Some are looking for other work that lets them spend more time with their kids. Nice, however, when those kids want to go to a sports camp and eventually go to college, you ALSO need money to pay for those things. Only YOU can decide if 10 extra hours per week at work and away from your kids plus additional work stress is WORTH being able to pay the bills that go along with raising kids.

These people questioning their life path WILL have to find other work. They will probably eventually find another truth as well; THERE IS NO PERFECT SOLUTION TO LIFE'S CHALLENGES AND DEMANDS. All jobs have their flaws. There is always a problem balancing available free time vs. money needed and the balance point is UNIQUE to each individual. Further, you may feel you are underpaid but do you have the skills and work ethic to get a better paying job? Are you willing to put in the effort to achieve the skill levels needed? I would suggest that the thing holding most people back from better pay and more rewarding work is THEMSELVES.

So, there is going to be a great reshuffling. Some people, as bills pile up, are going to end up in the same type of jobs they were in before. Some will jump into entirely new fields with success or failure. Old jobs will be picked up by other people making a change or new in the workforce.

COVID has been a great unsettling influence and it may take a few years to rebalance the economy. This kind of process has happened before and will happen again.

[Biggd]

My daughter and son inlaw, with 3 kids under 8, both work their arses off. My son inlaw is a fireman and sells real estate, my daughter is a buyer for TJX and has her own online business. They are both going in a hundred million directions 24/7.
While I commend their work ethic the children suffer because only one parent is available a any one time. We try to help as much as possible but my wife and I are 66 and 67 so our energy level isn't what it use to be.
My daughter just quit her TJX job because it was taking a toll on their family life, physically and mentally. So their income is basically cut in half.
At some point you have to take a step back and reassess the goal of chasing the all mighty dollar and having a happy family life.

[WinnisquamZ]

Biggd, agree fully with your statement. Back in the day the wife and I would discuss scheduling and work responsibilities after dinner and determine which ones took priority over others. Never a pleasant conversation. Eventually we dropped one full time career for a part time and never looked back. Now we are both retired and laugh about what we found important.


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[FlyingScot]

I agree too. Your kids illustrate the basic problem with soaring real estate prices. They create an economy that is great for older people and the wealthy, but makes it super hard for young families to get a foothold.

[phoenix]

I wasn't going to write this but each needs to make the decision that’s best for them and their family . I was raised by a single mom who worked in a shoe shop and we lived over a bar. I managed to graduate from college from a school that wouldn't be in any top 500 colleges. I got a job and worked up to become a ceo of a large company. Was i home during the week not usually ( many times out of country) but i chose not to plan golf on the weekends and went to all their sports all over the country. I had three kids all went to top 30 schools and were able graduate with no debt. I have done well enough that all ten grandkids are funded at least for instate tuition . Are they better off who knows. So everyone takes their owe path but if you chose a lower stress job i applaud you but don't also lambaste the other person who went down a different path . That seems to be the trend in this country. Sorry to get off the lake topic but just got in today and having a glass of wine.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

In states that ended expanded unemployment benefits claims have dropped 41% in the past 6 weeks. In states that continue to pay the higher amount claims have only dropped 33% in the same 6 week period.

That makes it pretty obvious that some people who could be working are staying home collecting the "free" money.

And what does any of that have to do with local business having trouble finding help?

[Biggd]

They say if your work involves doing something that you love you will never work a day in your life. It seems as though many younger folk are doing just that.
Me, I had a love/hate relationship with my career for 50 years, 35 in business for myself, but the driving force was having a good home life.
My 3 kids are all healthy and have good jobs. Now it's up to them to choose their own best path.
Don't be afraid of change. "Today is the first day of the rest of your life". Words to live by!

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

And what does any of that have to do with local business having trouble finding help?

Really? You have to ask that?

Let me explain: If more people want to stay home and collect unemployment there will be fewer people looking for and taking jobs. Fewer people taking jobs means more business with unfilled positions.

Or, to put it another way: As long as the government makes it more lucrative to sit on the couch than look for a job and go to work, people will stay home.

As has been said by a local talk show host: The safety net has become a hammock!

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by phoenix

I wasn't going to write this but each needs to make the decision that’s best for them and their family . I was raised by a single mom who worked in a shoe shop and we lived over a bar. I managed to graduate from college from a school that wouldn't be in any top 500 colleges. I got a job and worked up to become a ceo of a large company. Was i home during the week not usually ( many times out of country) but i chose not to plan golf on the weekends and went to all their sports all over the country. I had three kids all went to top 30 schools and were able graduate with no debt. I have done well enough that all ten grandkids are funded at least for instate tuition . Are they better off who knows. So everyone takes their owe path but if you chose a lower stress job i applaud you but don't also lambaste the other person who went down a different path . That seems to be the trend in this country. Sorry to get off the lake topic but just got in today and having a glass of wine.

Exactly! If you have the brains, work ethic, and luck to be a successful CEO, then the economy works great for you, your children, and your grandchildren. I'm happy for you--it's the American dream. But I'm sure you remember hundreds of hard working people from your company who had a tough time making ends meet, and it sounds like you know your grandchildren may not have the same college choices or real estate choices that your kids did. This is a real problem

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Really? You have to ask that?

Let me explain: If more people want to stay home and collect unemployment there will be fewer people looking for and taking jobs. Fewer people taking jobs means more business with unfilled positions.

Or, to put it another way: As long as the government makes it more lucrative to sit on the couch than look for a job and go to work, people will stay home.

As has been said by a local talk show host: The safety net has become a hammock!

The State knows exactly how many checks it writes to the unemployed.
Belknap County in May listed 430 unemployed.

By the middle of June, the State of NH has switched from enhanced unemployment to an incentive.

We are no longer even looking for the correct skill sets to achieve productivity, just warm bodies.

[tis]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

We are no longer even looking for the correct skill sets to achieve productivity, just warm bodies.

Perfectly said! I agree.

[John Mercier]

Even when we do get them... dealing with their scheduling desires and personalities is a huge trick.

It seems that no one wants to work a weekend... which seems so strange to me. So we have to adjust to that and all the customer profiles that fit them.

We just ran the numbers Saturday and found out that I have more sales volume than the other six members of my team.

Oddly, I take off a day mid-week, and my customer profile is anyone that is honestly interested in a product we sell.

[SAMIAM]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Even when we do get them... dealing with their scheduling desires and personalities is a huge trick.

It seems that no one wants to work a weekend... which seems so strange to me. So we have to adjust to that and all the customer profiles that fit them.

We just ran the numbers Saturday and found out that I have more sales volume than the other six members of my team.

Oddly, I take off a day mid-week, and my customer profile is anyone that is honestly interested in a product we sell.

I hear you.......last saturday at our drive-in there were three teenagers out.
1 soccer camp
1 family vacation
1 called in sick (posted FB video on the lake with friends)
The four that showed up really struggled

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by SAMIAM

I hear you.......last saturday at our drive-in there were three teenagers out.
1 soccer camp
1 family vacation
1 called in sick (posted FB video on the lake with friends)
The four that showed up really struggled

I had a Mobil gas station back in the 90's and had the same issues with help back then. The economy was booming, everyone was making and spending a ton of money.
My station was open from 6am to 10pm 364 days a year and I can honestly say I worked pretty close to all of them.
It was a constant battle to find and retain help because you're dealing with young kids that haven't decided on their future path so it's a revolving door.
We use to say, "hold a mirror up to their face and if they fog it up they got the job".
I had that business for 13 years, made a ton of money but I hated every minute of it!
When you have a family of 5 you do what you have to do.
I followed the the old Nike slogan, "just do it".

[8gv]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

The State knows exactly how many checks it writes to the unemployed.
Belknap County in May listed 430 unemployed.

By the middle of June, the State of NH has switched from enhanced unemployment to an incentive.

We are no longer even looking for the correct skill sets to achieve productivity, just warm bodies.

"Warm bodies"

Back in the day...

I was assigned to a new location that had a shortage of employees, mainly due to poor management.

While preparing the work schedule I found that there were a few shifts I could not cover.

Figuring that later in the week I might find someone to work, I labeled the shifts "Body" just to have a place holder.

A week later I came in for my closing shift and found the store to be quite upside down.

The obviously frazzled day manager, who was on his first shift at the location, greeted me with a litany of troubles.

As he unloaded his frustrations of the day his agitation increased to the level of full melt down.

He capped it off by shouting "and to top it all off this person named 'Body' never showed up for work!"

Welcome to Boston Rd my friend, it's a work in progress...




I am so happy to be a customer frustrated by the staffing shortages rather than a business owner or manager living it 24/7.

[phoenix]

And not just the lakes region as Canopie lake park reduces its hours to five days vs seven and closes early other than Friday and Saturday

[John Mercier]

Ours isn't the teenager.
Seems that we have a decent sum of people having mid-life crises with underlying inferiority complexes.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Ours isn't the teenager.

Seems that we have a decent sum of people having mid-life crises with underlying inferiority complexes.

I don't think there's any need for psychobabble—a whole bunch of people just reexamined their lives and reevaluated how they want to move forward.

I gotta say, if I was a cook in a hot kitchen making $10/hr. for 50 hours a week or a roofer with no benefits paid under the table or a whole host of other jobs with terrible working conditions and little life value, I'd be looking to fix it, too.

One last thing: this isn't just a blue collar thing, either—teachers, nurses, and other white collar professions are leaving in droves after "waking up" to how their employers treated them.

Here's a short article identifying the biggest areas being hit: https://www.fastcompany.com/90654925...at-resignation

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[John Mercier]

Well, they may be moving... but not by choice.
If they won't show up for work when scheduled, then they aren't even a warm body.

[DougNH]

Interesting article...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/su...food-shortages

[TiltonBB]

In response to worker shortages, some businesses, including some local restaurants, have been able to reduce hours and still be successful.

From the Laconia Sun:

https://www.laconiadailysun.com/news...ticle-nav-prev

[thinkxingu]

How did this never make it to this thread?!

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/...-after-6-days/

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[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

How did this never make it to this thread?!

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/...-after-6-days/

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Because you need a subscription to read the Boston Globe Democrat!

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

How did this never make it to this thread?!

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/...-after-6-days/

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Maybe because it's too sad, even for us? (haha)

One thing that screams out from the Globe article is the Camp Director's incompetence at multiple levels. I don't think labor shortages in general drove this, though they made it much tougher. Most glaring--the kids and staff didn't trust him, and that was before he tried to blame the whole thing on Sysco. Nobody stays open like that

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Because you need a subscription to read the Boston Globe Democrat!

Ummm...the story exists in other media outlets.

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[John Mercier]

Changes in a schedule is just one means of lowering the demand to fit the supply.

We've just begun what will be a serious process of lowering that demand through policy changes.

[thinkxingu]

Here's an interesting article that touches upon a lot of what has been discussed here these last months:
https://www.wmur.com/article/hiring-...-2021/37613509

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[phoenix]

it seems to me with NH low unemployment rate the only way to solve summer hiring is to allow more foreign residents to get temporary visas

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by phoenix

it seems to me with NH low unemployment rate the only way to solve summer hiring is to allow more foreign residents to get temporary visas

Which is the way it was before Covid. Many places especially in the weirs had Eastern European employees like Kellerhaus had the past two seasons their employees were all locals.


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[jeffk]

Originally Posted by phoenix

it seems to me with NH low unemployment rate the only way to solve summer hiring is to allow more foreign residents to get temporary visas

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. COVID has made getting foreign workers VERY difficult and the VISA process had previously tightened up, especially for relatively low skilled workers.

Further, last year's COVID problems was a huge mess. Yes, all countries had problems but America's image as THE place to come was tarnished. The resurgence this year has made it worse.

[FlyingScot]

As the grandson of impoverished refugee immigrants, I agree we should let in more immigrants, especially those sponsored by employers.

One thing to keep in mind is that the reduced number of legal immigrants started with the Trump administration in 2017 or so, well before COVID. I'm pretty sure we had pre-COVID immigration debates on this Forum, or at least a number of references.

(Note that this is different than securing the border, etc--just referencing legal immigration here.)

[John Mercier]

Business will adapt.
The ones that adapt the fastest will come out ahead.

[Flylady]

Some will adapt however I believe we will see many restaurants close as the owners are burned out and the profit margin too thin...add continuing staffing shortages in this industry= lot of closed places!

[MeredithMan]

Not a lakes region restaurant, but this fits in with the theme of this thread.

We were back in Bedford, (NH), this past week and went out to one of the local rests for dinner. There was a sign on the hostess desk that had in big letters, "THE NATIONAL LABOR SHORTAGE". Their sign stated that due to the national labor shortage, seating capacity is limited, and people may be turned away. It was a Weds night and it was early-ish, so we had no problem getting a seat.

When the server came by to take our drink order, she said that due to the "national labor shortage", (her words), they hadn't received a food delivery in several days. As a result, there weren't serving any entrees, just appetizers, salads/soup, and sandwiches. We were ok with that, as we just wanted something light.

I decided to get the chicken wings appetizer and a caesar salad. When I asked the server the difference between the regular size and large size of wings, she said that, "due to the CHICKEN SHORTAGE, there were only about 8 wings on the regular size. I said, "chicken shortage??" "Oh yes!", she replied...

Fast forward to last evening...we went to Buffalo Wild Wings in Manchester...no chicken shortage there....!!

[AltonCAM]

My wife and I went to Mexican restaurant the other day and included with the menu when we were seated was a laminated 81/2 by 11 card. The card stated they were “short staffed”. When the server returned to take our order I inquired as do you really think by hiring taller people will make things better. LOL things will get better hang in there.


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[phoenix]

the restaurant industry will find the so called sweet spot with prices, how much they pay their help and hours. Some will close, some will do take out or delivery only if they can't get servers. My bet is we will have fewer restaurants , they will pay more to get help, they will charge more for meals and likely reduce hours or just serve like the VK did this summer breakfast and lunch. This will not be a crisis but as I continue to read articles of former restaurant employees they wont go back to the long hours, lower pay and stressful conditions especially with more unruly patrons .

[Descant]

Cable news over the last several days is that Amazon, UPS, Macy's etc are hiring tens of thousands of workers, signing bonuses, shift differentials, benefits, etc. The Cannabis industry employment growth was up 38% over the last year. Sounds like restaurant workers who got laid off are going elsewhere. I used to love the cafeteria style restaurants in FL, Morrison's and Southern. Maybe that concept will spread? And service by robots? "There's an app for that".

[WinnisquamZ]

Might be on my own here, I believe the Lakes Region has too many year round restaurants. The population has changed over the past twenty years, for the better I believe. Restaurants that remain will be smaller and offer a flexible menu. Big fan of few menu options and higher quality.


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[phoenix]

Agree there is a similar article today in a Phx paper. They interview a few former restaurant employees and all have moved on to places like you list. The other class of restaurants that will survive are the mom and pops . I have an india restaurant i go to and husband, wife and daughter are the only employees. Good places like the VK with a seasoned owner will survive but as i said raise wages , increase prices some and reduce hours. It will sort out without government needed

[John Mercier]

The government role in it has already been playing out.

Seasonal business dependent on foreign workers are being squeezed, municipal and county employee staffing will cost more... thus more property tax, and the continuation of low interest rates driving housing and other leveraged backed consumption.

[AltonCAM]

Please delete this picture I am sick of looking at it every time I open this app.


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[baygo]

The restaurant industry has provided interim employment to a significant percentage of people all through time. With millions of health care, law enforcement, first responders. Etc… being fired due to vaccine reluctance, restaurants may soon experience a surge in applicants.

Tell me doctor… which wine do you recommend with this entree?

[Descant]

Originally Posted by baygo

The restaurant industry has provided interim employment to a significant percentage of people all through time. With such a large number of health care, law enforcement, first responders. Etc… being fired due to vaccine reluctance, restaurants may soon experience a surge in applicants.

If you're fired for lack of Vax, can you collect unemployment benefits? I see a mix of masked and unmasked in restaurant staff. "official guidance" seems to be more confusing than helpful, regardless of location or occupation. If potential workers don't get jabbed, will they wear a mask? The groups you mention, health care, LEO, first responders, are largely union. Will this impact their availability to collect benefits from their unions? I've always been a worker, not an employer, so my knowledge in this area is minimal.

[baygo]

Originally Posted by Descant

If you're fired for lack of Vax, can you collect unemployment benefits? I see a mix of masked and unmasked in restaurant staff. "official guidance" seems to be more confusing than helpful, regardless of location or occupation. If potential workers don't get jabbed, will they wear a mask? The groups you mention, health care, LEO, first responders, are largely union. Will this impact their availability to collect benefits from their unions? I've always been a worker, not an employer, so my knowledge in this area is minimal.

Being fire over lack of VAX does not qualify for federal unemployment for fed workers. I am uncertain of the policy in the private sector or union. I assume there is a crossover with people who have already exhausted their entitlements consequent of what they collected over the past 18 months.

[MeredithMan]

Good article from Forbes on this topic. The general rule of thumb has always been that if your job is eliminated or you are part of a layoff, you can collect unemployment, but if you are let go for "cause", (performance or violating company policies), you cannot. Seems most of the HR and legal experts are stating that if you go against the employer's vaccine policy, you cannot collect.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/perso...t-eligibility/

[WinnisquamZ]

Don’t you wish you could hire them. Those medical workers who are released for holding to their principals will be welcomed at hundreds of other hospitals and medical professions throughout the country. Hopefully we get a few of them here


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[baygo]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

Don’t you wish you could hire them. Those medical workers who are be released for holding to their principals will be welcomed at hundreds of other hospitals and medical professions throughout the country. Hopefully we get a few of them here


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Are there any regulations preventing me from converting one of my small dinning rooms to an exam-room and asking them to multi task?

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by baygo

Are there any regulations preventing me from converting one of my small dinning rooms to an exam-room and asking them to multi task?

Passed by Saturday was glad to see you had a nice crowd outside.


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[WinnisquamZ]

Botox and Bloody Mary’s! Fantastic idea


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[baygo]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Passed by Saturday was glad to see you had a nice crowd outside.


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Thanks, we had back to back great weekends with a record total of just over 700 guests. I end each day in amazement of my wife!

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by Descant

If you're fired for lack of Vax, can you collect unemployment benefits? I see a mix of masked and unmasked in restaurant staff. "official guidance" seems to be more confusing than helpful, regardless of location or occupation. If potential workers don't get jabbed, will they wear a mask? The groups you mention, health care, LEO, first responders, are largely union. Will this impact their availability to collect benefits from their unions? I've always been a worker, not an employer, so my knowledge in this area is minimal.

The official guidance is from the State of NH... or whatever State they are in.
NH doesn't have a vaccination mandate, and I doubt we will for most employment. Employers can require it, but for most of the jobs we have in the various industries, it will not be an issue.

Retail staff, including restaurants, are no longer required to wear the mask per official guidance from the State of NH, but some companies have chosen to return to company policy of the staff to be masked. Signs outside generally inform customers that it is their choice to mask or not... with a suggestion to mask.

So you are seeing a mixture of the official guidance and company policy.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by baygo

The restaurant industry has provided interim employment to a significant percentage of people all through time. With millions of health care, law enforcement, first responders. Etc… being fired due to vaccine reluctance, restaurants may soon experience a surge in applicants.

Tell me doctor… which wine do you recommend with this entree?

Won't be millions. Pretty much everybody folds. A few examples:

Mass State Police Unions asserted dozens would walk. Maybe 1 person actually has.

United Airlines--the first(?) big name employer to require them, down to very small numbers of hold outs.

Fox News--just about everybody there was vaxxed a while ago

[TheTimeTraveler]

Well, with some intense struggles everywhere it appears that for the most part that the 2020 Restaurants made it thru 2021 with just a few casualties.

The Restaurants were very clever in their planning with a musical chair schedule of closing days, cutting hours, shifting their staff and simplifying their menu offerings. EVERY single business owner out there deserve a gold hat for hanging in there and putting up with something that has never been experienced before in our lifetimes. A truly great job for making it thru the summer and a big thank you for hanging in there under rotten circumstances.

The good news is that summer of 2021 is now behind us. The bad news is that summer of 2022 is in the horizon in about 8 months or so and I'm sure that business owners are not looking forward to ever going through this all over again.

At the beginning of the summer I would say this Covid environment was a fluke, but now I don't see huge improvements on the horizon for 2022. Can many of these businesses again survive these unusual conditions for another year, or will some owners finally say "screw it" and permanently close? Can you really blame them if they do close?

[John Mercier]

The shortage of workers is not Covid.
That can be an excuse, but it isn't the reality.

https://www.nhpr.org/business-and-ec...e-to-hire-grow

[baygo]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

Won't be millions. Pretty much everybody folds. A few examples:

Mass State Police Unions asserted dozens would walk. Maybe 1 person actually has.

United Airlines--the first(?) big name employer to require them, down to very small numbers of hold outs.

Fox News--just about everybody there was vaxxed a while ago

I’m curious the source of your information. I no longer trust any main stream media outlet. They all report/indoctrinate to support their narrative be it left or right.

The American labor force is currently 160 millionish workers. CDC states we are somewhere around 75% Vaxed. That leaves 40 million unvaxed. Yes some will cave but I believe the number will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 10% who will not. I draw this hypothesis from umbers reported by the teacher and hospital unions in the big cities on how many have not caved there.

Your reference to the Massachusetts state police union is contradicted by this Main Street source (not to be hypocritical) https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...-covid-vaccine

It states dozens did walk, but that’s irrelevant because the deadline is not until October 17th

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by baygo

I’m curious the source of your information. I no longer trust any main stream media outlet. They all report/indoctrinate to support their narrative be it left or right.

The American labor force is currently 160 millionish workers. CDC states we are somewhere around 75% Vaxed. That leaves 40 million unvaxed. Yes some will cave but I believe the number will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 to 10% who will not. I draw this hypothesis from umbers reported by the teacher and hospital unions in the big cities on how many have not caved there.

Your reference to the Massachusetts state police union is contradicted by this Main Street source (not to be hypocritical) https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...-covid-vaccine

It states dozens did walk, but that’s irrelevant because the deadline is not until October 17th

If you read that article closely, you'll see that the officers' union claimed that many put their resignations in, but other sources have it at only one actual resignation: https://www.wcvb.com/article/massach...tions/37763636

Though there will be some who resign, it won't be in the millions.

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[John Mercier]

But the point is that the staffing shortage will continue.

It may switch around the players, but it doesn't add more to the game.

[thinkxingu]

Agreed, though if the number of cases continues to drop—as a number of scientific organizations predict—the public institution needs will drop as well.

Private companies—restaurants and such—will probably continue to struggle, though.

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[Juiced06GTO]

Just sharing a real life situation for the unionized Mass employees here since it was brought up earlier, I'd imagine the same situation holds true for most State of Ma employees.

One of my employee's husband works for MassPort at the Worcester Airport. He is a unionized employee. He was given until this past Monday to have either the first dose of either Phizer or Moderna, or until the 17th to have the J&J shot or he was going to be put on unpaid leave for 6 weeks with no benefits. At the end of the 6 weeks if he was still not fully vaccinated, he would have been fired and unable to collect unemployment.

He got his J&J shot yesterday. They didn't want to try and get by on one income, so off to Price Chopper pharmacy for the vaccine he went. There really isn't any gray area with the state on this. You get it, you get a second chance with a punishment (no pay for 6 weeks), or you get fired.

[TiltonBB]

Read this with an open mind, come to your own conclusions.

These numbers are very interesting.

As reported by the CDC...
U.S. deaths by year and the change from the previous year.
Year 2017: 2,818,503 Americans died.
Year 2018: 2,839,205 deaths (20,702 more than the previous year 2017)
Year 2019: 2,855,000 deaths (16,300 more than the previous year 2018)
The year of the pandemic . . .
Year 2020: 2,913,144 deaths (57,641 more than the previous year 2019)

BUT WAIT: There were zero deaths from Covid-19 during 2018, and 2019 and the jump from 2019 was only 57,641?

We've been told that COVID is responsible now for 500,000 deaths.

Shouldn't the 2020 number be a LOT higher?

So the question becomes: How many people died of COVID and how many died of OTHER causes and also had COVID?

Now read below - numbers don't lie - food for thought:

A very well -orchestrated plan, or an unimaginable set of events that ‘just fell into place’ with the United States front and center? You tell me!

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Read this with an open mind, come to your own conclusions.

These numbers are very interesting.

As reported by the CDC...
U.S. deaths by year and the change from the previous year.
Year 2017: 2,818,503 Americans died.
Year 2018: 2,839,205 deaths (20,702 more than the previous year 2017)
Year 2019: 2,855,000 deaths (16,300 more than the previous year 2018)
The year of the pandemic . . .
Year 2020: 2,913,144 deaths (57,641 more than the previous year 2019)

BUT WAIT: There were zero deaths from Covid-19 during 2018, and 2019 and the jump from 2019 was only 57,641?

We've been told that COVID is responsible now for 500,000 deaths.

Shouldn't the 2020 number be a LOT higher?

So the question becomes: How many people died of COVID and how many died of OTHER causes and also had COVID?

Now read below - numbers don't lie - food for thought:

A very well -orchestrated plan, or an unimaginable set of events that ‘just fell into place’ with the United States front and center? You tell me!

That's such a simplistic interpretation of an incredibly complex situation. Here's a good article that goes into it in more depth: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/articl...s-data-webinar

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[baygo]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Read this with an open mind, come to your own conclusions.

These numbers are very interesting.

As reported by the CDC...
U.S. deaths by year and the change from the previous year.
Year 2017: 2,818,503 Americans died.
Year 2018: 2,839,205 deaths (20,702 more than the previous year 2017)
Year 2019: 2,855,000 deaths (16,300 more than the previous year 2018)
The year of the pandemic . . .
Year 2020: 2,913,144 deaths (57,641 more than the previous year 2019)

BUT WAIT: There were zero deaths from Covid-19 during 2018, and 2019 and the jump from 2019 was only 57,641?

We've been told that COVID is responsible now for 500,000 deaths.

Shouldn't the 2020 number be a LOT higher?

So the question becomes: How many people died of COVID and how many died of OTHER causes and also had COVID?

Now read below - numbers don't lie - food for thought:

A very well -orchestrated plan, or an unimaginable set of events that ‘just fell into place’ with the United States front and center? You tell me!

I kinda wanna hug you!

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Read this with an open mind, come to your own conclusions.

These numbers are very interesting.

As reported by the CDC...
U.S. deaths by year and the change from the previous year.
Year 2017: 2,818,503 Americans died.
Year 2018: 2,839,205 deaths (20,702 more than the previous year 2017)
Year 2019: 2,855,000 deaths (16,300 more than the previous year 2018)
The year of the pandemic . . .
Year 2020: 2,913,144 deaths (57,641 more than the previous year 2019)

BUT WAIT: There were zero deaths from Covid-19 during 2018, and 2019 and the jump from 2019 was only 57,641?

We've been told that COVID is responsible now for 500,000 deaths.

Shouldn't the 2020 number be a LOT higher?

So the question becomes: How many people died of COVID and how many died of OTHER causes and also had COVID?

Now read below - numbers don't lie - food for thought:

A very well -orchestrated plan, or an unimaginable set of events that ‘just fell into place’ with the United States front and center? You tell me!

Couldn’t find your stats in one place on the CDC site…perhaps you checked each year individually and compiled the list yourself.

Here’s a link to a report detailing excess deaths. I particularly like the graph that differentiates between all excess deaths and deaths without Covid included.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7015a4.htm


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[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

Couldn’t find your stats in one place on the CDC site…perhaps you checked each year individually and compiled the list yourself.

Here’s a link to a report detailing excess deaths. I particularly like the graph that differentiates between all excess deaths and deaths without Covid included.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7015a4.htm


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Perfect, and a much more visible version of what is covered in my linked article. Thanks!

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[TiltonBB]

From the linked article:

"For example, a previous report described declines in emergency department visits for heart attack, stroke, and hyperglycemic crisis in early 2020 (4). The excess death analyses presented here cannot distinguish between excess deaths that might have been misclassified COVID-19 deaths or those that might have been indirectly associated with the pandemic."

You don't suppose there is any political agenda here do you?

Nah.............That wouldn't happen!

Can I get anyone a glass of this Kool Aid?

[Newbiesaukee]

This is the perfect example of confirmation bias…believing what you want to believe.

A little research easily reveals the flaws in the original article. Unfortunately, the more realistic reviews of the data will change no ones mind.

And that is part of the tragedy we all face.

[baygo]

Originally Posted by Newbiesaukee

This is the perfect example of confirmation bias…believing what you want to believe.

A little research easily reveals the flaws in the original article. Unfortunately, the more realistic reviews of the data will change no ones mind.

And that is part of the tragedy we all face.

Bingo!

Then there’s the main stream media of choice , that manipulates, just in case someone’s mind starts to stray.

I’ve been eavesdropping on drunks at bars and diners at tables for over five decades. I wish I had the patience and time to write a book on some of the most bizarre points I’ve heard defended.

[Garcia]

At this point, I doubt any information will change anyone's mind about COVID.

Back to the idea about staffing in the lakes region (and other tourist based regions) I believe it will be a perpetual problem. Lot's of seasonal work with seasonal housing hard to come by will lead to continued shortages. My own kids will continue to have their pick of good paying, seasonal jobs either at home (a tourist driven economy) or at the lake simply because they have a free place to live. It makes no sense for them to chase a higher paying seasonal job on the Cape or Nantucket if they have to pay rent to work. When they finish school they'll have to find the balance of balancing housing and expenses with income. I don't see them settling in either the lakes region or their current home town as that balance doesn't seem to be there for them at the moment. Of course, things might change before they finish school - and their career paths are not set in stone.