Ice Out 2015?

Music Man · 03-17-2015, 03:09 PM

I thought I saw a thread a while back to collect guesses for this year, but can't find it. Searched on Ice-Out, Ice Out, even just 2015, didn't turn anything up.

Anyway, I'm thinking 3:30pm on 3/30/15, aka 1530 on 30 Mar 15.

ishoot308 · 03-17-2015, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Music Man

I thought I saw a thread a while back to collect guesses for this year, but can't find it. Searched on Ice-Out, Ice Out, even just 2015, didn't turn anything up.

Anyway, I'm thinking 3:30pm on 3/30/15, aka 1530 on 30 Mar 15.

There will still be ice fishing going on then!

:

JPC · 03-17-2015, 05:01 PM

Guess were only accepted in the Month of February. I believe the Webmaster controls that link. If you want to look at it use this link.
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2015/

Blue Thunder · 03-17-2015, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Music Man

I thought I saw a thread a while back to collect guesses for this year, but can't find it. Searched on Ice-Out, Ice Out, even just 2015, didn't turn anything up.

Anyway, I'm thinking 3:30pm on 3/30/15, aka 1530 on 30 Mar 15.

Zero percent chance of ice out in 12 days....

chasedawg · 03-17-2015, 08:18 PM

This year may break another record for the lastest ice out. There is still 30" of ice thickness and the winds are howling tonight with wind chills in single digits. The temps have been on average 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Sorry to say the 30 day forecast is for below normal temps. We are talking about a very late ice out and late Spring and Summer. Normally this time of year ice is starting to melt down and break up. Not so this year.

chasedawg · 03-17-2015, 08:24 PM

Music man best to add 45 days to your guess. It would be wonderful if you did win the iceOut contest. I would love to be boating in March instead of May.

Merrymeeting · 03-18-2015, 08:21 AM

While I am leaning toward chasedawg's view, remember that we were all predicting a record ice-out last year, then it happened in the blink of an eye. It can happen.

While there is no end in sight in the forecast, I don't think the ice is as strong as usual. Lots of snow on top of lots of slush for a good part of the winter. If the sun and temps ever cooperate, it could happen quickly, as it did last year.

My guess, a normal late April date.

bilproject · 03-18-2015, 08:53 AM

I was up last weekend and around bear island out to timber, 3 mile and 6 mile measured no more than 10 inches of ice. Top 3 inches is snow and runoff refreeze. once white snow cover from this past weekend is gone the sun is going to work on it fast. Once the big areas go then the bays and coves with 30 inches will go fast.

SteveA · 03-18-2015, 09:36 AM

Ya.. I was a little to optimistic with my April 9th date.

Scott · 03-18-2015, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

While I am leaning toward chasedawg's view, remember that we were all predicting a record ice-out last year, then it happened in the blink of an eye.

Yes. It's natural to focus on air temps since that's what we feel, but it's not what does the most damage.

Once you get into mid-late April, the longer days and sun peaking at 60 degrees above the horizon will destroy the ice regardless of air temp, especially with any wind to scour out the insulating layer of cold air just above the ice.

Ice out was on 5/2 in 2001 despite April being downright hot at times with several days ranging from 64-84 degrees.

For late ice outs, you'd want as many cloudy and calm days as possible. (Not that anyone wants that.)

thinkxingu · 03-18-2015, 02:43 PM

Hi! Can someone define "ice out"? Is that when there's no ice left or a certain percentage?

LIforrelaxin · 03-18-2015, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Hi! Can someone define "ice out"? Is that when there's no ice left or a certain percentage?

Ice out is defined as when the M/S Mount Washington can make her normal route, traveling to the Ports of Center Harbor, Wolfeboro, Alton, Wiers Beach, and Meredith.

JMR · 03-18-2015, 03:52 PM

This time of year I am almost ready to put the ski's up and get ready for islandtime. I drove to the lake today, just to look around. One of the things I have learned to do is watch the lake cams and then cross my fingers. Who'd a thought a grown man would watch ice melt with such anticipation? Apparently grown old, not up, huh?

Merrymeeting · 03-18-2015, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMR

This time of year I am almost ready to put the ski's up and get ready for islandtime....Who'd a thought a grown man would watch ice melt with such anticipation?

The few years before I moved here full time, I thought I should be committed. I'd check the cams every 30 mins, looking for a change, and salivating about the next time I could be there. Had been coming since I could walk, and couldn't wait to be back.

Happy to say that having now been here full time for 3+ years, the feeling has not diminished.

PS: And btw, the mid-week skiing is wonderful...and cheap!

Pineedles · 03-19-2015, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveA

Ya.. I was a little to optimistic with my April 9th date.

I picked April 9th too Steve. We are the Ying and Yang politically. Perhaps we can combine our power to force Mother Nature into a April 9th date still.

gokart-mozart · 03-19-2015, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chasedawg

This year may break another record for the lastest ice out. There is still 30" of ice thickness and the winds are howling tonight with wind chills in single digits. The temps have been on average 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Sorry to say the 30 day forecast is for below normal temps. We are talking about a very late ice out and late Spring and Summer. Normally this time of year ice is starting to melt down and break up. Not so this year.

If you had March 20 - you lose!

brk-lnt · 03-19-2015, 09:45 AM

Ice out has been cancelled this year, latest weather reports are that we'll try again for warm weather next year.

Music Man · 03-19-2015, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chasedawg

Music man best to add 45 days to your guess. It would be wonderful if you did win the iceOut contest. I would love to be boating in March instead of May.

Yeah, I was hoping for some mental heat to help things along...

(3:30 on 3/30 just sounded right...)

(and better than 6:30 on 6/30!)

pjard · 03-19-2015, 07:18 PM

I am April 19th at 2:15 pm....not too optimistic, I wish I could change it to 2:30, then I'd have a chance!

03-17-2015, 03:09 PM	#1
Music Man Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 104 Thanks: 37 Thanked 25 Times in 16 Posts	Ice Out 2015? I thought I saw a thread a while back to collect guesses for this year, but can't find it. Searched on Ice-Out, Ice Out, even just 2015, didn't turn anything up. Anyway, I'm thinking 3:30pm on 3/30/15, aka 1530 on 30 Mar 15.

03-17-2015, 05:01 PM	#3
JPC Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Milford, NH Posts: 161 Thanks: 44 Thanked 16 Times in 14 Posts	2015 Ice Out Guess were only accepted in the Month of February. I believe the Webmaster controls that link. If you want to look at it use this link. http://www.winnipesaukee.com/contests/2015/

03-17-2015, 08:18 PM	#5
chasedawg Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Melvin village Posts: 522 Thanks: 512 Thanked 314 Times in 148 Posts	2015 iceOut This year may break another record for the lastest ice out. There is still 30" of ice thickness and the winds are howling tonight with wind chills in single digits. The temps have been on average 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Sorry to say the 30 day forecast is for below normal temps. We are talking about a very late ice out and late Spring and Summer. Normally this time of year ice is starting to melt down and break up. Not so this year.

03-17-2015, 08:24 PM	#6
chasedawg Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Melvin village Posts: 522 Thanks: 512 Thanked 314 Times in 148 Posts	Ice out Music man best to add 45 days to your guess. It would be wonderful if you did win the iceOut contest. I would love to be boating in March instead of May.

03-18-2015, 08:53 AM	#8
bilproject Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Bear Island/Fort Myers, Fla Posts: 230 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 1 Thanked 59 Times in 41 Posts	Suspect ice will fool us again I was up last weekend and around bear island out to timber, 3 mile and 6 mile measured no more than 10 inches of ice. Top 3 inches is snow and runoff refreeze. once white snow cover from this past weekend is gone the sun is going to work on it fast. Once the big areas go then the bays and coves with 30 inches will go fast.

03-18-2015, 08:21 AM	#7
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	While I am leaning toward chasedawg's view, remember that we were all predicting a record ice-out last year, then it happened in the blink of an eye. It can happen. While there is no end in sight in the forecast, I don't think the ice is as strong as usual. Lots of snow on top of lots of slush for a good part of the winter. If the sun and temps ever cooperate, it could happen quickly, as it did last year. My guess, a normal late April date.

The Following User Says Thank You to Merrymeeting For This Useful Post:
pjard (03-18-2015)

03-18-2015, 09:36 AM	#9
SteveA Deceased Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 2,311 Thanks: 1,070 Thanked 2,054 Times in 497 Posts	Ya.. I was a little to optimistic with my April 9th date. __________________ "Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry he'll be a mile away and barefoot!" unknown

03-18-2015, 02:43 PM	#11
thinkxingu Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 6,234 Thanks: 1,171 Thanked 2,056 Times in 1,276 Posts	Hi! Can someone define "ice out"? Is that when there's no ice left or a certain percentage?

03-18-2015, 03:52 PM	#13
JMR Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Hampton & Rattlesnake Island Posts: 175 Thanks: 33 Thanked 70 Times in 32 Posts	Will it ever come? This time of year I am almost ready to put the ski's up and get ready for islandtime. I drove to the lake today, just to look around. One of the things I have learned to do is watch the lake cams and then cross my fingers. Who'd a thought a grown man would watch ice melt with such anticipation? Apparently grown old, not up, huh?

The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to JMR For This Useful Post:
Jersey Ed (03-18-2015), Merrymeeting (03-18-2015), mhtranger (03-19-2015)

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Merrymeeting For This Useful Post:
mhtranger (03-19-2015), WakeboardMom (03-19-2015)

03-19-2015, 09:45 AM	#17
brk-lnt Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: South Down Shores Posts: 1,944 Thanks: 544 Thanked 570 Times in 335 Posts	Ice out has been cancelled this year, latest weather reports are that we'll try again for warm weather next year. __________________ [insert witty phrase here]

03-19-2015, 07:18 PM	#19
pjard Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Gilford, NH Posts: 636 Thanks: 493 Thanked 194 Times in 101 Posts	I am April 19th at 2:15 pm....not too optimistic, I wish I could change it to 2:30, then I'd have a chance!