Solid evidence points to late, record ice-out on Lake Winnipesaukee

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by belly_button_biter

The documentary "An inconvenient truth" was filmed in 2004. In the documentary Al Gore stated that the process of global warming would result with colder temperatures about a decade from them. It seems to me that is a more accurate forecast from 10 years ago then the one from last week.

Hmm, isn't it funny that not to long after it came out most if not all the assertions the "documentary" made were debunked by scientists. I mean you can choose to believe what ever you want, but Al Gore is only interested in doing one thing, padding his pockets and pushing a political agenda. Want proof, read on here:

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/mo...oreerrors.html

I won't even get into how hypocritical he is considering his own fossil fuel consumption.

Just sayin... as for ice out, I'm still holding out it'll go out before May... but I doubt it. Last weekend it was as if it was mid January out there on the lake. Made for some nice snowmobiling.

[Lakegeezer]

It appears to be an outlier year. The west US had an unusually dry and warm winter while the east US was cold and snowy. No matter when we have iceout, the watershed has not been this frozen on March 26'th, in my 25+ years watching it. Meanwhile, the polar ice cap continues its decline.

The changing climate triggers political debate, because cleaning up from all the anomalies is expensive. New budgets, laws and customs have to change along with the climate. But not everyone is on the same page. In all probability, some inconvenient truths are real, and some not. In some cases, the discussion boils down to science versus beliefs.

One truth is; we have been getting record setting downpours in NH over the last 10 years. Just to be safe, the state changed the design codes for drainage culverts to specify one size larger pipe than previous codes. the hope is that fewer roads will wash out. That's the pragmatic approach that I hope most agree with.

The global issue, with no easy answers is; who pays for third world countries climate woes.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Call me crazy but I trust the data that NASA provides. The fact that anyone would read NASA's take on climate change and still believe ANYTHING that says climate change is not real baffles me.

If you want real information from real scientists read this.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

[brk-lnt]

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Call me crazy but I trust the data that NASA provides. The fact that anyone would read NASA's take on climate change and still believe ANYTHING that says climate change is not real baffles me.

If you want real information from real scientists read this.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

I agree with you.

The "world" and the environment is very complex, and it goes through long-range (like multi-century) variations over time. But it doesn't take a lot of knowledge to look at the general state of the environment and realize we're not doing ourselves any favors.

There is also this odd trend of not agreeing with "data" if it can't be sourced back to someone that shares your same political affiliations.

I'm generally not a fan of Al Gore, and I don't consider him a scientist. But I think his overall concern that the environment is changing for the worse is valid and is rooted in real evidence. Like many that seek "fame" over all, I think he probably diluted his own impact by trying to over-reach with his message, but again, that doesn't change the fundamental facts about the environmental trends.

[MAXUM]

I don't think anyone is debating that the climate is changing, it's more a question of why. When one volcanic eruption can spew more greenhouse gasses than has ever been generated by man, it does seem a bit silly to see junk like this portrayed as "real" science when in reality it is selective facts strewn together to formulate a particular conclusion. Sadly everything these days have some sort of ulterior motive behind it instead of having a real study/evaluation of what's going on done in a manner that is free of any particular agenda.

Does this mean that we as humans take reasonable steps to keep our environment and plant as clean as possible? Absolutely. However the lengths to which this has been taken legislatively at our own expense is silly. Brainwashing kids at school with Al Whore's movie is a sign of the times. Thank God there are still private schools out there that still educate versus indoctrinate.

Boy it would be nice if all this extended ice cover and cold weather would rid the lake of milfoil!

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by brk-lnt

I'm generally not a fan of Al Gore, and I don't consider him a scientist. But I think his overall concern that the environment is changing for the worse is valid and is rooted in real evidence. Like many that seek "fame" over all, I think he probably diluted his own impact by trying to over-reach with his message, but again, that doesn't change the fundamental facts about the environmental trends.

I am not a fan of Al Gore either but how about practicing what you preach: Al Gore's inconvenient truth from ABC News:

"Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 times the national average of 10,656 kilowatt-hours."

"If this were any other person with $30,000-a-year in utility bills, I wouldn't care," says the Center's 27-year-old president, Drew Johnson. "But he tells other people how to live and he's not following his own rules."

[brk-lnt]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

I am not a fan of Al Gore either but how about practicing what you preach: Al Gore's inconvenient truth from ABC News:

"Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 times the national average of 10,656 kilowatt-hours."

"If this were any other person with $30,000-a-year in utility bills, I wouldn't care," says the Center's 27-year-old president, Drew Johnson. "But he tells other people how to live and he's not following his own rules."

IMHO, Al Gore is in it more for the celebrity aspect than for the actual cause. He has taken up climate change as his mantra to try and stay relevant and in the spotlight.

So, yes, he is most likely a hypocrite, however the fact that the messenger is flawed does not mean that the message itself is flawed.

[bilproject]

I was going to sign up for the tournament on May 14th but think I'll wait a few weeks. Does not look like Ice will be gone by then. First year I'm retired and could be out on the island so what does mother nature do but have a record ice out! On the side thread started on global warming, when someone says "It's never been warmer than now" remember dinosaurs roamed the Hudson Bay of Canada before the "last" ice age. There have been many warm and cold cycles in the planets long history. The problem man has is that he thinks he's too important in the planetary scheme.

[jmen24]

Originally Posted by bilproject

I was going to sign up for the tournament on May 14th but think I'll wait a few weeks. Does not look like Ice will be gone by then. First year I'm retired and could be out on the island so what does mother nature do but have a record ice out! On the side thread started on global warming, when someone says "It's never been warmer than now" remember dinosaurs roamed the Hudson Bay of Canada before the "last" ice age. There have been many warm and cold cycles in the planets long history. The problem man has is that he thinks he's too important in the planetary scheme.

Just remember, Ice Out does not mean that all the ice is gone. There has always been areas that still have ice when they declare Ice Out. It only matters for the mount and you will likely have a large portion of the lake to fish with. Get your ticket and your gear ready and have a good time.

Unless of coarse you are located in one of the areas that will still have ice, then well, I don't know what to tell you!

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by bilproject

I was going to sign up for the tournament on May 14th but think I'll wait a few weeks. Does not look like Ice will be gone by then. First year I'm retired and could be out on the island so what does mother nature do but have a record ice out!

I doubt the ice will linger that long, however usually the water temps around mid May are in that 50-60 degree range, that may not be the case this year so the fishing may not be quite as good.

[Jeanzb1]

This will be our second year owning a boat, so I am wondering.....I know that ice-out pertains to The Mount, but, generally speaking, how long should you wait to safely venture out on the lake? I've been told that there are pieces of fallen trees and old docks that can lie just beneath the surface and cause damage to your boat -- and that the debris sinks to the bottom with sunlight and temperature.

[jrc]

I usually like to wait a week or two after ice out for the debris to get blown on shore. I think the biggest danger is hitting tree limbs or other wood pieces floating along.

This year I may have to venture forth without that safety margin. I'll just drive slower and keep a sharp lookout.

[Merrymeeting]

The next week with lots of rain and temps above freezing most of the time will tell us a lot about how quickly things might start moving.

I'm impressed with how much of the snow cover has evaporated, despite the cold temps.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Jeanzb1

This will be our second year owning a boat, so I am wondering.....I know that ice-out pertains to The Mount, but, generally speaking, how long should you wait to safely venture out on the lake? I've been told that there are pieces of fallen trees and old docks that can lie just beneath the surface and cause damage to your boat -- and that the debris sinks to the bottom with sunlight and temperature.

Floating debris is one problem, missing/moved/damaged markers is also something to be aware of. The MP does a good job to get out there and fix them but it's usually some time before they can get them all done so you really need to know where you are, or better put where hazards are with or without markers.

[Rusty]

I don't know about global warming, but the air we breathe sure is taking a beating...indoors, and outdoors: http://www.livescience.com/44365-air...-8-deaths.html


Shanghai before sunset in February 2008, seen from the Jin Mao tower observation deck. The sun has not yet dropped below the horizon; it has simply reached the smog line.

[VitaBene]

Rusty,

Without getting too political, that is why I go a little crazy when I see what we are mandated to do in the US re. pollution when our "competitors" do little!

[Rusty]

Originally Posted by VitaBene

Rusty,

Without getting too political, that is why I go a little crazy when I see what we are mandated to do in the US re. pollution when our "competitors" do little!

You picked up the reason I posted that picture...thank you!

We can't fart anymore without someone testing the air to make sure it passes the EPA's requirements.

[geordie]

You people really think that there's no such thing as global warming? So the fast that the average world temperatures have been rising for decades, that doesn't count because you get one cold winter? But at the same time you are going to be wondering why your food prices are up, the irrigation allowances in much of California have been set to 0 (ZERO) for this year, so most of the fields are bare this year. In 1997 I stood at Lake Louise in Alberta and looked at the glacier at the other end of the lake, but last year it was totally gone. Europe was slammed by super storms this winter, but that isn't because the weather systems are now more energetic? The thing is that all you need to do is wait and see. So far everything is turning out as I expected.

[Tired of Waiting]

Originally Posted by geordie

You people really think that there's no such thing as global warming? So the fast that the average world temperatures have been rising for decades, .

Guess they should have had fewer cars back when the earth was warmer than now, say about 1,100 BC.

Temp swings are normal. I'm not saying that man may not contribute a little to it but volcanos and the sun far out weigh anything man has or can do except atomic war winter.


ToW

[Cal]

Hurry up and melt

[Greene's Basin Girl]

Originally Posted by Cal

Hurry up and melt

That caption is so funny!

[Oregonrain]

The Weirs Cam is showing a reflection on the ice today. That's the first I've seen since I started watching the cam this winter.

[pcmc]

Originally Posted by Tired of Waiting

Guess they should have had fewer cars back when the earth was warmer than now, say about 1,100 BC.

Temp swings are normal. I'm not saying that man may not contribute a little to it but volcanos and the sun far out weigh anything man has or can do except atomic war winter.


ToW

Interesting chart, but are there really accurate records from 2200BC following the earths temperature??

[capewx]

Once said, and this is a true statement "Some are weatherwise but most our otherwise" Alot of the otherwise are on this board.

[This'nThat]

Originally Posted by capewx

"Some are weatherwise but most [are] otherwise" A lot of the otherwise are on this board.

I believe the highest concentrations of the most dangerous "otherwise" can be found in Wash, DC; at the UN; and at the Weather Channel. People on this board can do no harm; the other concentrations aim to do the most harm possible.

[Tired of Waiting]

Originally Posted by capewx

Once said, and this is a true statement "Some are weatherwise but most our otherwise" Alot of the otherwise are on this board.

Thanks for your valued addition to the debate. I see you backed you position up with scientific data to support you hypothesis.

ToW

[Tired of Waiting]

Originally Posted by pcmc

Interesting chart, but are there really accurate records from 2200BC following the earths temperature??

Yes there are.

In the polar ice cap cores. In the earths crust cores. To name a couple.

Sample cores tell a lot about what the climate was in history. Example, coal is formed from deposits that need tropical like climate to form. So the coal located in Canada comes from tropical forest that were there millions of years ago. How about dinosaurs? They needed warm climate to live and could not survive in Montana today but were there in the past.

So if you are asking did some weather person take the temp of the day and write it down in a book? The answer is no but the earth recorded its' own temperature history in the rocks, swamps, ice caps, etc.

ToW

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by geordie

You people really think that there's no such thing as global warming? So the fast that the average world temperatures have been rising for decades, that doesn't count because you get one cold winter? But at the same time you are going to be wondering why your food prices are up, the irrigation allowances in much of California have been set to 0 (ZERO) for this year, so most of the fields are bare this year. In 1997 I stood at Lake Louise in Alberta and looked at the glacier at the other end of the lake, but last year it was totally gone. Europe was slammed by super storms this winter, but that isn't because the weather systems are now more energetic? The thing is that all you need to do is wait and see. So far everything is turning out as I expected.

The global average temperature has not risen for 17 years. While I fully agree that one cold winter does not tell the tale of climate, neither does one hot summer.

Food prices are going up because we have been diverting our growing to producing ethanol instead of food. Of course, regional droughts and other severe WEATHER can produce shortages of commodities.

As to the California drought, the New York Times in March stated "At present, the scientific evidence does not support an argument that the drought there is appreciably linked to human-induced climate change." This is another weather event.

As to the frequency and strength of storms, the tornado and hurricane activity has reached decades low levels in the last few years. These changes are cyclic and people who theorize Global Warming have been forced to admit that there is no proven link between "warming" and hurricane frequency or intensity. To borrow your "one cold winter" example, one Sandy does not "increasing intensity of storms" make.

If everything is turning out "as expected", how come the models are completely unable to explain the pause in global temps? There has been speculation about the cause but NO proof. The models don't work. People that support warming theory have written emails to each other complaining that the models don't work.

Sorry to go off on this "tangent" but it really annoys me to hear speculation about climate change that is flat out unproven. I don't think this forum is the place for this debate but I didn't raise the point.

[geordie]

Originally Posted by jeffk

The global average temperature has not risen for 17 years. While I fully agree that one cold winter does not tell the tale of climate, neither does one hot summer.

It all depends how you look at it and whether you take in to account what you would expect due to the various cyclic weather effects.

What you are doing is called a straw man argument, there is a way of looking at some of the data that can be interpreted as showing that nothing is happening. But even the Koch brother's shill at Berkeley now gave up trying to argue that it wasn't happening and fell back to trying to prove it isn't caused by us.

http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

But in the end it doesn't matter to me what you think. Plenty of people, especially in the US, would rather believe that there's no problem and it's certainly nothing to do with them. So it is very unlikely that anything will change. So wait and see. That's what people are doing anyway. The trick would be to find a way to make good money out of being right.

[fatlazyless]

....ok....so it's April 1st and there's still a little bit of ice and snow left outside.....thank goodness.....you know I was worried that it would all melt overnight!

[Tired of Waiting]

Originally Posted by geordie

It all depends how you look at it and whether you take in to account what you would expect due to the various cyclic weather effects.

What you are doing is called a straw man argument, there is a way of looking at some of the data that can be interpreted as showing that nothing is happening. But even the Koch brother's shill at Berkeley now gave up trying to argue that it wasn't happening and fell back to trying to prove it isn't caused by us.

http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

But in the end it doesn't matter to me what you think. Plenty of people, especially in the US, would rather believe that there's no problem and it's certainly nothing to do with them. So it is very unlikely that anything will change. So wait and see. That's what people are doing anyway. The trick would be to find a way to make good money out of being right.

Why is it that the global warming folks always look at history of the "last few decades?" Sure temp has risen during that time, well except for the last few years when the temp has not risen?

If you want at look at global temperature history over time then look at history. Say the last few million years.

http://joannenova.com.au/2010/02/the...rature-swings/


Go here and pick out the chart that supports your theory. If you look closely you will see that most of the charts that support man made warming go back not much more that 40,000 years. However if you really want to debate cause and effect of warming pick the charts that go back 25 million years or more and see what the causes are.

https://www.google.com/search?q=glob...w=1280&bih=623

Global warming is not a settled science as Al Gore says it is. Far from it. There are way to many factors that are not understood and not taken into account in the models use to support man's affect on warming.

All we can do is to keep an open mind and continue the debate along with scientific analysis of ALL the factors that contribute to both warming and cooling of earths temperature.

ToW

[Steveo]

Originally Posted by jeffk

Food prices are going up because we have been diverting our growing to producing ethanol instead of food.

I love how ethanol was suppose to be the savior from fossil fuels. It does more to "pollute" the environment then anything. The use of fertilizers on poor land that was suppose to not be used. The run off of those fertilizers effecting water quality. The use of fossil fuels to produce the ethanol. Finally the CO2 that gets "dug up" in order to plant the corn.

Don't get me going on ethanol

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by Steveo

I love how ethanol was suppose to be the savior from fossil fuels. It does more to "pollute" the environment then anything. The use of fertilizers on poor land that was suppose to not be used. The run off of those fertilizers effecting water quality. The use of fossil fuels to produce the ethanol. Finally the CO2 that gets "dug up" in order to plant the corn.

Don't get me going on ethanol

Don't forget the part where it takes much more energy to produce ethanol.

[Fish-E]

I wonder what will happen with the Winni Derby if ice-out doesn't happen by then???? May 16,17,18th

[secondcurve]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

I am not a fan of Al Gore either but how about practicing what you preach: Al Gore's inconvenient truth from ABC News:

"Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 times the national average of 10,656 kilowatt-hours."

"If this were any other person with $30,000-a-year in utility bills, I wouldn't care," says the Center's 27-year-old president, Drew Johnson. "But he tells other people how to live and he's not following his own rules."

Don't forget how he travels around the globe in his private Gulf Stream airplane!! You could paste his ugly face in Webster's dictionary under Hypocrite.

[RLW]

My belief is that once the ice starts going it is going to go real fast with or without Mr. (know it all) Al Gore say so and I personally think it will be gone before May.

[AC2717]

sorry for what I started here