Lake Level Concerns

Bizer · 03-25-2005, 08:25 AM

The lake's level is lower than normal for this date (March 25th), but the March temperature has been substantially below normal. Lower temperatures mean less melting than normal. For March 25th, the amount of snow waiting to melt is higher than normal.

Lakegeezer · 03-25-2005, 08:58 AM

There is a great discussion about the snowpack and potential for floods from the weather service at ftp://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/data/text/FGUS71/KGYX.TXT - in fact a whole lot of hydrological information at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/hydrology.html

The summary from their March 18'th report (update due April 1) says:

WHILE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS OR SO IS ABOUT NORMAL...THE RISK OF FLOODING LATER THIS SPRING REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A HIGH WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK CURRENTLY AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE CONCERN IS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WE WILL BE GOING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH AND THE FIRST PART OF APRIL WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINING AT A TIME WHEN TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR INTO 50S OR 60S AND THE CHANCES OF A HEAVY RAIN ARE GREATER.

ANYONE LIVING OR WORKING IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA SHOULD REVIEW THEIR FLOOD PLAN AND KNOW WHAT TO DUE IN THE EVENT FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOWMELT ALONE. FLOODING IS DRIVEN BY RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL IS THE MOST IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

Merrymeeting · 03-25-2005, 10:09 AM

If the current 10-day forecasts are true, we're looking at rain almost every day next week, with temps close to or above freezing even at night. I expect we'll see a much greater inflow in the next week.

If the lake is allowed to vary too much at this time of year, the ice clinging to many structures will cause a lot of damage.

History has shown us that the dam operators do a very good job managing the level give the extreme variations of NE weather.

GWC... · 03-25-2005, 12:51 PM

Forecast for soil moisture looks normal; not wet

Bizer · 04-01-2005, 02:13 PM

The lake has risen six inches in the past four days.

Massachusetts is due to get lots of rain in the next 48 hours. That should add at least another 6" within a week.

Island Girl · 04-04-2005, 06:39 AM

The lake has risen over 12" in the past week.

the real laze · 04-05-2005, 07:07 PM

Those dam operators....They do a pretty good job. It seems like we have this concern every year, yet almost every year (exception would be June 98) we do pretty well! Even then, they were doing a good job, a feakishly wet June did everyone in!

Island Girl · 04-06-2005, 01:04 PM

I count 16 inches in 9 days. Bizer did a Monday update to their lake level chart which is usually updated on Thursdays.

http://www.bizer.com/bztnews.htm#lakelevel

I believe we are now a bit above average for the date.

Thanks Bizer

Bizer · 04-14-2005, 09:49 AM

At 8:30 this morning, the lake reached 4.32 feet which, by definition, is "full pool" for Winnipesaukee. The lake has risen 21 inches in the past 17 days.

Lakegeezer · 04-24-2005, 08:51 AM

The water has come up almost 2" in the last 24 hours, and at 4.61, it is now (Sunday at 8AM) well above full pool of 4.32. The stream beside our place is running pretty strong, as are others I'm sure - and the ground is still very soggy. It looks like we are in for at least another small flood. Break out the sand bags and tell the dam operator to open the flood gates.

ApS · 04-24-2005, 09:28 AM

My dock is taller than most, and the surface is just over the piling tops.

If it wasn't presently raining, I'd say this was a normal height for the season, and there's no reason for concern.

But isn't the lake outlet computer-controlled?

Absolutely nothing can go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong....

mcdude · 04-24-2005, 10:35 AM

Lakegeezer: A live view of the DAM CAM this morning at Lakeport (

) would indicate that the flood gates have indeed been opened!!

GWC... · 04-24-2005, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

...and the ground is still very soggy. It looks like we are in for at least another small flood. Break out the sand bags and tell the dam operator to open the flood gates.

The soil moisture for May and July are still looking average. We may need this extra water to avoid the prop shop this summer.

You'll also notice that the dam operators seem to on top of the situation.

Bear Islander · 04-24-2005, 03:32 PM

I arrived at Bear Island yesterday to find the water level very high. It was even higher today when I put in the outer dock. Another three inches and my crib dock will be under water.

The public dock at Shep Brown's is at water level. A few more inches and they will be talking making the whole lake no wake like in 1998.

Silver Duck · 04-24-2005, 08:29 PM

Bear Islander

Yes, it was startling how quickly the lake rose this weekend! I was up there yesterday and today doing Spring cleaning on the boat (she went in Thursday). When my wife and I left a little before 3:00 PM, the water was washing over the lowest point on the town docks.

We'd hoped to be able to take her out for our first cruise of the year this weekend, but the weather didn't cooperate, and the sudden fog that blew in was the last straw.

At one point I couldn't even see Bear Island from the docks.

Silver Duck

ApS · 04-26-2005, 09:13 PM

This was a terrific warm, sunny April (!) day through about 3PM. Got lots of boat and dock work done today. Lots of fisher-persons actually catching fish.

Lake's up another inch on the dock from yesterday, which puts the lake's surface in the middle of the stringers, but not slapping the bottom of the planking as yet. A big wake would wash across the top surface of it.

Another boat trip around my area shows today's gentle waves washing over another dock not far away. A wind storm now could do some damage to docks that weren't damaged by the ice!

mcdude · 04-28-2005, 09:56 AM

CLICK HERE for Citizen article

"Lake Winnipesaukee being above full "is not uncommon," Fay continued, nor is the rate of water flowing over the Lakeport dam unusually high."

ITD · 04-28-2005, 11:25 AM

Aps,

The lake today is about 5 inches above full (.4 x 12 inches). Correct me if I'm wrong, the bottom of your dock must only be a couple of inches above the water at full lake. Isn't this kind of low? Seems to me wakes and waves would be washing over your dock all summer. The bottom of my dock is about a foot and a half above the water at full lake.

ApS · 04-28-2005, 04:09 PM

Our docks may be comparable: The lake level was 10 inches below the highest walking level of my dock at Noon today. A big wake could wash across the walking surface. It's not perfectly level, due to previous amateur ice damage repairs. (Mine)

Mine would be among the last in my neighborhood to sink below the surface as they did in '84 and '98. (I have photos taken of flooded neighbors' docks in '84 -- which was before my present dock was installed).

It drizzled most of last night and part of the morning. The level was above all of the pilings themselves a few days ago, and the cross-members (6X8's) atop the pilings are mostly submerged today. (The dock obviously can't be easily adjusted for height -- and wouldn't want to).

Until about late August, parts of my dock are splashed by big wakes hitting the immediate rocky shore and splashing backwards onto the walking surface.

It's all a compromise: it's a big stretch down to get into boats towards the end of the season.

The winds have been variable. When the wind is just right, waves make continuous -- and friendly -- "clip-clop-clip-clop" sounds of invisible passing horses on the undersides of the dock.

03-25-2005, 08:25 AM	#1
Bizer Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 336 Thanks: 0 Thanked 243 Times in 82 Posts	The lake's level is lower than normal for this date (March 25th), but the March temperature has been substantially below normal. Lower temperatures mean less melting than normal. For March 25th, the amount of snow waiting to melt is higher than normal. Last edited by Bizer; 04-14-2005 at 09:51 AM.

03-25-2005, 08:58 AM	#2
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,679 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 354 Thanked 640 Times in 291 Posts	Weather service discussion There is a great discussion about the snowpack and potential for floods from the weather service at ftp://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/data/text/FGUS71/KGYX.TXT - in fact a whole lot of hydrological information at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/hydrology.html The summary from their March 18'th report (update due April 1) says: WHILE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS OR SO IS ABOUT NORMAL...THE RISK OF FLOODING LATER THIS SPRING REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A HIGH WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOWPACK CURRENTLY AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE CONCERN IS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WE WILL BE GOING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH AND THE FIRST PART OF APRIL WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINING AT A TIME WHEN TEMPERATURES CAN SOAR INTO 50S OR 60S AND THE CHANCES OF A HEAVY RAIN ARE GREATER. ANYONE LIVING OR WORKING IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA SHOULD REVIEW THEIR FLOOD PLAN AND KNOW WHAT TO DUE IN THE EVENT FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOWMELT ALONE. FLOODING IS DRIVEN BY RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL IS THE MOST IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING. __________________ -lg

03-25-2005, 12:51 PM	#4
GWC... Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 1,325 Thanks: 5 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Soil moisture, hmmmmm... Forecast for soil moisture looks normal; not wet

04-01-2005, 02:13 PM	#5
Bizer Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 336 Thanks: 0 Thanked 243 Times in 82 Posts	The lake has risen six inches in the past four days. Massachusetts is due to get lots of rain in the next 48 hours. That should add at least another 6" within a week. Last edited by Bizer; 04-14-2005 at 09:50 AM.

04-04-2005, 06:39 AM	#6
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,352 Thanks: 18 Thanked 535 Times in 179 Posts	Higher and higher The lake has risen over 12" in the past week. Attached Images __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

03-25-2005, 10:09 AM	#3
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	If the current 10-day forecasts are true, we're looking at rain almost every day next week, with temps close to or above freezing even at night. I expect we'll see a much greater inflow in the next week. If the lake is allowed to vary too much at this time of year, the ice clinging to many structures will cause a lot of damage. History has shown us that the dam operators do a very good job managing the level give the extreme variations of NE weather.

04-05-2005, 07:07 PM	#7
the real laze Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Lover of GLASS Posts: 17 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Those dam operators....They do a pretty good job. It seems like we have this concern every year, yet almost every year (exception would be June 98) we do pretty well! Even then, they were doing a good job, a feakishly wet June did everyone in! __________________ Amazing how common sense isn't so common anymore!?!?!

04-06-2005, 01:04 PM	#8
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,352 Thanks: 18 Thanked 535 Times in 179 Posts	... and still rising I count 16 inches in 9 days. Bizer did a Monday update to their lake level chart which is usually updated on Thursdays. http://www.bizer.com/bztnews.htm#lakelevel I believe we are now a bit above average for the date. Thanks Bizer __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

04-14-2005, 09:49 AM	#9
Bizer Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 336 Thanks: 0 Thanked 243 Times in 82 Posts	The lake is full At 8:30 this morning, the lake reached 4.32 feet which, by definition, is "full pool" for Winnipesaukee. The lake has risen 21 inches in the past 17 days.

04-24-2005, 08:51 AM	#10
Lakegeezer Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 1,679 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 354 Thanked 640 Times in 291 Posts	rising and rising The water has come up almost 2" in the last 24 hours, and at 4.61, it is now (Sunday at 8AM) well above full pool of 4.32. The stream beside our place is running pretty strong, as are others I'm sure - and the ground is still very soggy. It looks like we are in for at least another small flood. Break out the sand bags and tell the dam operator to open the flood gates. __________________ -lg

04-24-2005, 09:28 AM	#11
ApS Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Florida (Sebring & Keys), Wolfeboro Posts: 5,941 Thanks: 2,213 Thanked 778 Times in 554 Posts	Everything's under control My dock is taller than most, and the surface is just over the piling tops. If it wasn't presently raining, I'd say this was a normal height for the season, and there's no reason for concern. But isn't the lake outlet computer-controlled? Absolutely nothing can go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong...go wrong....

04-24-2005, 10:35 AM	#12
mcdude Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Rock Haven Lake - West Newfield, ME Posts: 5,367 Thanks: 374 Thanked 1,057 Times in 495 Posts	Lakegeezer: A live view of the DAM CAM this morning at Lakeport ( ) would indicate that the flood gates have indeed been opened!!

04-24-2005, 03:32 PM	#14
Bear Islander Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Bear Island Posts: 1,764 Thanks: 32 Thanked 441 Times in 207 Posts	Will we have a "No Wake" lake? I arrived at Bear Island yesterday to find the water level very high. It was even higher today when I put in the outer dock. Another three inches and my crib dock will be under water. The public dock at Shep Brown's is at water level. A few more inches and they will be talking making the whole lake no wake like in 1998.

04-24-2005, 08:29 PM	#15
Silver Duck Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Billerica, MA Posts: 364 Thanks: 40 Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts	Bear Islander Yes, it was startling how quickly the lake rose this weekend! I was up there yesterday and today doing Spring cleaning on the boat (she went in Thursday). When my wife and I left a little before 3:00 PM, the water was washing over the lowest point on the town docks. We'd hoped to be able to take her out for our first cruise of the year this weekend, but the weather didn't cooperate, and the sudden fog that blew in was the last straw. At one point I couldn't even see Bear Island from the docks. Silver Duck

04-26-2005, 09:13 PM	#16
ApS Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Florida (Sebring & Keys), Wolfeboro Posts: 5,941 Thanks: 2,213 Thanked 778 Times in 554 Posts	This was a terrific warm, sunny April (!) day through about 3PM. Got lots of boat and dock work done today. Lots of fisher-persons actually catching fish. Lake's up another inch on the dock from yesterday, which puts the lake's surface in the middle of the stringers, but not slapping the bottom of the planking as yet. A big wake would wash across the top surface of it. Another boat trip around my area shows today's gentle waves washing over another dock not far away. A wind storm now could do some damage to docks that weren't damaged by the ice!

04-28-2005, 09:56 AM	#17
mcdude Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Rock Haven Lake - West Newfield, ME Posts: 5,367 Thanks: 374 Thanked 1,057 Times in 495 Posts	Things are normal at the dam. CLICK HERE for Citizen article "Lake Winnipesaukee being above full "is not uncommon," Fay continued, nor is the rate of water flowing over the Lakeport dam unusually high."

04-28-2005, 11:25 AM	#18
ITD Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Moultonboro, NH Posts: 2,931 Thanks: 478 Thanked 693 Times in 388 Posts	Aps, The lake today is about 5 inches above full (.4 x 12 inches). Correct me if I'm wrong, the bottom of your dock must only be a couple of inches above the water at full lake. Isn't this kind of low? Seems to me wakes and waves would be washing over your dock all summer. The bottom of my dock is about a foot and a half above the water at full lake.

04-28-2005, 04:09 PM	#19
ApS Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Florida (Sebring & Keys), Wolfeboro Posts: 5,941 Thanks: 2,213 Thanked 778 Times in 554 Posts	Our docks may be comparable: The lake level was 10 inches below the highest walking level of my dock at Noon today. A big wake could wash across the walking surface. It's not perfectly level, due to previous amateur ice damage repairs. (Mine) Mine would be among the last in my neighborhood to sink below the surface as they did in '84 and '98. (I have photos taken of flooded neighbors' docks in '84 -- which was before my present dock was installed). It drizzled most of last night and part of the morning. The level was above all of the pilings themselves a few days ago, and the cross-members (6X8's) atop the pilings are mostly submerged today. (The dock obviously can't be easily adjusted for height -- and wouldn't want to). Until about late August, parts of my dock are splashed by big wakes hitting the immediate rocky shore and splashing backwards onto the walking surface. It's all a compromise: it's a big stretch down to get into boats towards the end of the season. The winds have been variable. When the wind is just right, waves make continuous -- and friendly -- "clip-clop-clip-clop" sounds of invisible passing horses on the undersides of the dock.