more expert testimony on SB-27

[jarhead0341]

Originally Posted by Rusty

This is my no BS answer for “why the need for a speed limit” even if “numbers 1 thru 5 are followed”:

So that “large off-shore type boats capable of speeds well in excess of 70 mph, 250+hp personal watercraft only 11ft. long, and low-profile fishing boats with 250+hp engines” do not make it unsafe for people like you and I who only want to have fun and enjoy everything that the Lake has to offer.

Some people aren’t following 1 thru 5…BUT….they are following the new “Speed Limit Law” and it will only get better.

Thanks for the questions!

thanx for the response .... how does it make it any safer if all the other rules are followed and who says the speed limit is being followed 100 %

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by jarhead0341

thanx for the response .... how does it make it any safer if all the other rules are followed and who says the speed limit is being followed 100 %

David Barrett the head of the Marine Patrol is opposed to the speed limit yet admits it is being followed. He doesn't say it works 100%. After all very few things work 100%. Below are some quotes from Mr. Barrett from a recent interview in the Concord Monitor.

Over the past 10 years, Barrett said, there have been three boating deaths attributed to speed. One of those is the 2008 death of Stephanie Beaudoin of Meredith, who died when a boat piloted by her best friend, Erica Blizzard, crashed into Diamond Island on Lake Winnipesaukee in the dark, early morning hours. State authorities estimate Blizzard was going at least 33 mph.

This year, Barrett said, the Marine Patrol issued eight tickets for speeding on the lake, resulting in court-issued fines in the vicinity of $100.

"That's testimony to the fact that there aren't a lot of people that go that fast," Barrett said.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Over the past 10 years, Barrett said, there have been three boating deaths attributed to speed. One of those is the 2008 death of Stephanie Beaudoin of Meredith, who died when a boat piloted by her best friend, Erica Blizzard, crashed into Diamond Island on Lake Winnipesaukee in the dark, early morning hours. State authorities estimate Blizzard was going at least 33 mph.

This year, Barrett said, the Marine Patrol issued eight tickets for speeding on the lake, resulting in court-issued fines in the vicinity of $100.

"That's testimony to the fact that there aren't a lot of people that go that fast," Barrett said.

Come on BI, there weren't that many boats speeding even BEFORE the SL law was rammed through.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

Come on BI, there weren't that many boats speeding even BEFORE the SL law was rammed through.

Wrong again. There were plenty of boats going over 30 mph at night. That is where the speed limits has had the greatest impact.

And for many years I personally went faster than 45 mph just about every day I was at the lake. And that is all summer.



The current law was 6 years in coming and involved many public meetings around the lake area and many legislative debates. That does not meet my definition of "rammed through".

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Wrong again. There were plenty of boats going over 30 mph at night. That is where the speed limits has had the greatest impact.

And for many years I personally went faster than 45 mph just about every day I was at the lake. And that is all summer.



The current law was 6 years in coming and involved many public meetings around the lake area and many legislative debates. That does not meet my definition of "rammed through".

Agreeing to a 2 year study to gather data and then pushing it through a year early is ramming it through IMO.

I'm still waiting for you and other SL supporters to present objective data showing benefits of the speed limit.

Here's a a little tidbit. There are hyrdologic studies that demonstrate slow speeds through shallower depths increase the amount of sediment that is kicked up from the bottom.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

Agreeing to a 2 year study to gather data and then pushing it through a year early is ramming it through IMO...

Wrong another time. Speed limit supporters NEVER wanted or agreed to the so called "speed study". In fact they were totally opposed to it.

That was a sham of a last minute move to delay enactment of a the speed limit. Barrett pulled that rabbit out of his hat at almost the last moment to delay the bill. It was never taken seriously by the Marine Patrol that did it as evidenced by the fact the didn't log very pertinent data.

Where do you people get your information? It's almost all wrong.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Wrong another time. Speed limit supporters NEVER wanted or agreed to the so called "speed study". In fact they were totally opposed to it.

That was a sham of a last minute move to delay enactment of a the speed limit. Barrett pulled that rabbit out of his hat at almost the last moment to delay the bill. It was never taken seriously by the Marine Patrol that did it as evidenced by the fact the didn't log very pertinent data.

Where do you people get your information? It's almost all wrong.

So now the data is not pertinent? I have just a wee bit of experience in data analysis. Please enlighten me as to why you believe the MP data was flawed.

Just above you quoted Barrett in a favorable way? Were you for the MP before you were against it?

It's the legislative process that was rammed through when a study is put in place and then squashed. WinnFabs voice, although small in actual numbers, we able to use perception to their favor. I bet WinnFabs doesn't even (or care) how many of the petition signers were boaters on the lake, do you?

If there is really such an overwhelming support for the SL then why does it remain so devisive?

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

So now the data is not pertinent? I have just a wee bit of experience in data analysis. Please enlighten me as to why you believe the MP data was flawed.

Just above you quoted Barrett in a favorable way? Were you for the MP before you were against it?

It's the legislative process that was rammed through when a study is put in place and then squashed. WinnFabs voice, although small in actual numbers, we able to use perception to their favor. I bet WinnFabs doesn't even (or care) how many of the petition signers were boaters on the lake, do you?

If there is really such an overwhelming support for the SL then why does it remain so devisive?

There were several problems with the study. They would put a boat in a central location to take readings. Most of the boats used were marked boats with huge "MARINE PATROL" lettering on the side. To prevent triangulation error they only recorded the speed of boats headed directly toward the MP boat. The radar had a limited range of about 200 feet.

What kind of moron goes full speed directly at a marked patrol boat? Give me a break, this "test" was laughable. Deliberately designed to return the data it did. Most of the boats were marked but the MP claimed that they also used a few unmarked boats. Unfortunately the kind of boat and whether it was marked or unmarked WAS NOT RECORDED! Useless data.


Why do I have to favor or not favor Barrett? He is a bureaucrat, some of what he does is good and some of it is bull, just like with most bureaucrats.


The speed limit is only is only divisive on forums like this. Any real chance of a repeal died last November when Lynch was re-elected. He signed it into law during his campaign. He can't sign a repeal now, it would be political suicide.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

There were several problems with the study. They would put a boat in a central location to take readings. Most of the boats used were marked boats with huge "MARINE PATROL" lettering on the side. To prevent triangulation error they only recorded the speed of boats headed directly toward the MP boat. The radar had a limited range of about 200 feet.

What kind of moron goes full speed directly at a marked patrol boat? Give me a break, this "test" was laughable. Deliberately designed to return the data it did. Most of the boats were marked but the MP claimed that they also used a few unmarked boats. Unfortunately the kind of boat and whether it was marked or unmarked WAS NOT RECORDED! Useless data.


Why do I have to favor or not favor Barrett? He is a bureaucrat, some of what he does is good and some of it is bull, just like with most bureaucrats.


The speed limit is only is only divisive on forums like this. Any real chance of a repeal died last November when Lynch was re-elected. He signed it into law during his campaign. He can't sign a repeal now, it would be political suicide.

Just because they did not record the type of boat markings does not render the readings useless.

Suppose that a study was conducted in a manner that you deemed adequate and yielded the same results, would that chage your opinion on the need for a speed limit?

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

Just because they did not record the type of boat markings does not render the readings useless.

Suppose that a study was conducted in a manner that you deemed adequate and yielded the same results, would that chage your opinion on the need for a speed limit?

Yes, It does! If the MP were at all serious about wanting to collect real data the could have, and WOULD HAVE, used unmarked boats.

For me the number one justification for a speed limit was that children's camps were keeping their small boats in on certain days. There were also secondary justifications.

The "speed study" data would mean little or nothing to me no matter how taken or what it contained. It just didn't matter. If many boats were speeding then we needed a speed limit. If small numbers were speeding then hardly anyone would be inconvenienced by a speed limit. Sorry, but it was catch 22 in favor of a speed limit. The study meant nothing no matter what it said.

We don't set speed limits on our roads by studying how fast cars are going on them. We set them by road conditions and accident data.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Yes, It does! If the MP were at all serious about wanting to collect real data the could have, and WOULD HAVE, used unmarked boats.

For me the number one justification for a speed limit was that children's camps were keeping their small boats in on certain days. There were also secondary justifications.

The "speed study" data would mean little or nothing to me no matter how taken or what it contained. It just didn't matter. If many boats were speeding then we needed a speed limit. If small numbers were speeding then hardly anyone would be inconvenienced by a speed limit. Sorry, but it was catch 22 in favor of a speed limit. The study meant nothing no matter what it said.

We don't set speed limits on our roads by studying how fast cars are going on them. We set them by road conditions and accident data.

So your answer is what I suspected in that no amount of data would satisfy you.

As far as speed limits based on childrens camps, I think the number of boats on a busy day is a far, far a greater factor than speed. And that's just the facts of life. There are tons of places for camps to have small boats unfestered by motor boats. Do you think a speed limit would change your mind when traveling in the Weirs area on a busy weekend with a kayak?

It's no different then when I avoid traffic areas while on the road. So the bikers ruin the Laconia/Meredith area for me during bike weeks so should that mean they cancel the event for those who don't participate?

Comparing roads to the water is apples and oranges. We set road speed limits on OBJECTIVE data such as traffic volume, accident occurance, population densities, lane widths, number of egress points, sight lines, elevation changes, pavement type, amount of development, and a whole plethera of other criteria. Ever notice in certain areas where the speed limit miraculously changes from 65-55 seemingly for no reason? Now you have your answer..... And if you insist on comparing the water to the road, then do like the NHDOT (and all other States) and complete engineering studies before placing an arbitrary speed limit on the lake. And be careful what you wish for as the data is not likely to be in your favor.

[Yankee]

lawn psycho,

When BI cannot "spin" his way out of a dabate--especially when confronted with facts, he will invariably pull out the "I'm afraid for the campers routine."

[VtSteve]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

We don't set speed limits on our roads by studying how fast cars are going on them. We set them by road conditions and accident data.

If I may interject this. Been done this way almost forever.

http://www.cabobike.org/2010/01/30/a...ed-limits-set/

Since speed limits do not have a measurable influence on actual speeds, it makes sense to set speed limits so as not to make lawbreakers out of a large fraction of motorists. Speed limits that are set too low makes law enforcement more difficult and leads to a disrespect for speed limits.

Shown here is a speed distribution on a rural road. Notice that the distribution is quite narrow, meaning that most motorists drive at nearly the same speed. You will see that changing the speed limit by just 5 mph will make a big change in the number of violators.

So the 85th percentile rule is simply a recognition that speed limits are set for the purposes of enforcement. And since law enforcement only has the resources to cite the most egregious violations, the speed limit is established at or near the 85th percentile, making only about 15% of free-flowing motorists violators.

You may also notice that motorists who go a few mph over the speed limit are not cited. That occurs for two reasons. The first is the lack of law enforcement resources. But where the system really falls down is at the judicial level. Traffic court judges routinely give a 10-12 mph leeway on speeding tickets out of a false belief that radar is inaccurate. So even if some motorists do base their speeds on the speed limit, they routinely go about 10 mph over and almost never get a ticket.

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by VtSteve

If I may interject this. Been done this way almost forever.

If you read the article closely you will see that the author is not describing how speed limits are set, but giving his opinion as to how they SHOULD be set.

More importantly he never disagrees with what I posted.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

If you read the article closely you will see that the author is not describing how speed limits are set, but giving his opinion as to how they SHOULD be set.

More importantly he never disagrees with what I posted.

Actually he does disagree with you. He prefaces the article by saying he removes his opinion and relies on the data. That's what an engineer is supposed to do.

[VtSteve]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

If you read the article closely you will see that the author is not describing how speed limits are set, but giving his opinion as to how they SHOULD be set.

More importantly he never disagrees with what I posted.

http://livermore.patch.com/articles/...coming-to-town

Try this, and many more. I know for sure that almost every roadway on the country used this method for many decades. But I'm just addressing roadway SL. On the water is quite a bit different, and arbitrary limits plucked out of a hat are not really meaningful.

[Rusty]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

So now the data is not pertinent? I have just a wee bit of experience in data analysis. Please enlighten me as to why you believe the MP data was flawed.

Just above you quoted Barrett in a favorable way? Were you for the MP before you were against it?

It's the legislative process that was rammed through when a study is put in place and then squashed. WinnFabs voice, although small in actual numbers, we able to use perception to their favor. I bet WinnFabs doesn't even (or care) how many of the petition signers were boaters on the lake, do you?

If there is really such an overwhelming support for the SL then why does it remain so devisive?

I have found that arguing with a statistician is a lot like wrestling with a pig, after a few hours you begin to realize the pig likes it.

[Bear Islander]

Hey guys,

Instead of picking apart every minor comment I have posted, and then scouring the Internet for hours to try and find an expert opinion that differs from mine, why don't we talk about SB-27.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

Hey guys,

Instead of picking apart every minor comment I have posted, and then scouring the Internet for hours to try and find an expert opinion that differs from mine, why don't we talk about SB-27.

*COUGH, COUGH* Where in my posts do you see my scouring the internet? WinnFabs site is germaine.

The editorial above uses this argument against SB-27[...The proposed change to the law would replace hard and fast numbers with the words "reasonable and prudent...]

And I simply ask you to show me data that supports a "hard and fast" 45 MPH limit. I've been patiently waiting for an answer but as of yet I hear silence. The silence is deafening

[Rusty]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

And I simply ask you to show me data that supports a "hard and fast" 45 MPH limit. I've been patiently waiting for an answer but as of yet I hear silence. The silence is deafening

Here is something that I don’t understand: Why are the supporters of SB-27 asking people on this forum for data that supports a 45/30 speed limit on Lake Winnipesaukee?

We didn’t sign the bill that has imposed the speed limit. I think most of us have told you why we think that a speed limit is necessary (and you won’t accept that) and evidently Governor Lynch thinks there should be one also.

So Mr. lawn psycho, why don’t you write the Governor and ask him to show you data that supports a "hard and fast" 45 MPH limit. When you get his response it would be nice if you shared that with all of us.

Tell him that "Rusty" gave you an assignment, he knows who I am.

One other thing lawn psycho: Because you “have just a wee bit of experience in data analysis”, what are the odds that Governor Lynch will supply you with the hard data that you are looking for?

[Pineedles]

Originally Posted by Rusty

Tell him that "Rusty" gave you an assignment, he knows who I am.

Did you provide any direct input to Governor Lynch prior to him signing the bill? Like a phone call or personal letter. Just curious.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Rusty

Here is something that I don’t understand: Why are the supporters of SB-27 asking people on this forum for data that supports a 45/30 speed limit on Lake Winnipesaukee?

We didn’t sign the bill that has imposed the speed limit. I think most of us have told you why we think that a speed limit is necessary (and you won’t accept that) and evidently Governor Lynch thinks there should be one also.

So Mr. lawn psycho, why don’t you write the Governor and ask him to show you data that supports a "hard and fast" 45 MPH limit. When you get his response it would be nice if you shared that with all of us.

Tell him that "Rusty" gave you an assignment, he knows who I am.

One other thing lawn psycho: Because you “have just a wee bit of experience in data analysis”, what are the odds that Governor Lynch will supply you with the hard data that you are looking for?

Rusty, you still haven't provided a shred of evidence that supports ANY numerical limit. The governor won't have it because it DOESN'T EXIST

Let me clue you in on the legislative process, the Governor merely signed something that was passed to him. The Gov. did not initiate the bill.

And if you want me to believe that you personally had the ear of the Governor to be the hedge point to get him to sign the bill, I have a needle to pop the air within your big head

[Rusty]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

Let me clue you in on the legislative process, the Governor merely signed something that was passed to him. The Gov. did not initiate the bill.

Thank you professor psycho for the lesson about the "legislative process".

What you could do in your letter to the Governor is to tell him that you know that he doesn't have any hard data but that you were asked to inquire about it. I would like to see what his response will be.

I'm going to let you have the last word on this subject because you know what I said about statisticians.

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Rusty

Thank you professor psycho for the lesson about the "legislative process".

What you could do in your letter to the Governor is to tell him that you know that he doesn't have any hard data but that you were asked to inquire about it. I would like to see what his response will be.

I'm going to let you have the last word on this subject because you know what I said about statisticians.

I'm still waiting for you to actually provide me data! I need data in order to wrestle

[Rusty]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

I'm still waiting for you to actually provide me data! I need data in order to wrestle

Wrestle with this probability question:

Each of the letters of the word Winnipesaukee are written on separate pieces of paper that are then folded, put in a hat, and mixed thoroughly.

One piece of paper is chosen (without looking) from the hat. What is the probability that it is an i?

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Rusty

Wrestle with this probability question:

Each of the letters of the word Winnipesaukee are written on separate pieces of paper that are then folded, put in a hat, and mixed thoroughly.

One piece of paper is chosen (without looking) from the hat. What is the probability that it is an i?

Come on, you can do better than that. Here's a simple one that is counterintuitive to people. What is the probability that two people share the same birthday (only needs to be the same month/day and can ignore year). Hint: Not as common as you would think.

[Rusty]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

Come on, you can do better than that. Here's a simple one that is counterintuitive to people. What is the probability that two people share the same birthday (only needs to be the same month/day and can ignore year). Hint: Not as common as you would think.

The first person can have any birthday. That gives him 365 possible birthdays out of 365 days, so the probability of the first person having the "right" birthday is 365/365, or 100%.
The chance that the second person has the same birthday is 1/365. So the probability that both people have this birthday, you multiply their separate probabilities. (365/365) * (1/365) = 1/365, or about 0.27%.

[NoBozo]

Originally Posted by Rusty

What you could do in your letter to the Governor is to tell him that you know that he doesn't have any hard data but that you were asked to inquire about it. I would like to see what his response will be.

There was a thread awhile ago about "Illegal" Float Plane operations on Pickeral Pond. It was started by Shedwanabe.

Being a Private Pilot, I volunteered some information based on my avaition knowledge. I was challenged by Skip to write a letter to the FAA to resolve the matter. WHAT..? Who am I to write a letter to resolve a LOCAL matter, as to whether a Float Plane can land on Pickeral Pond.?

This challenge by Rusty... seems eerily similar to my experience with Skip.

BTW: Shedwanabe. ...to his credit..did his own investigating and found that the Float Plane operations on Pickeral Pond were indeed legal.

SO: Is Rusty ...another screen name for Skip. ..?? NB

[Rusty]

Originally Posted by NoBozo

SO: Is Rusty ...another screen name for Skip. ..?? NB

I wonder what the probability is that I am Skip?

[Skip]

Originally Posted by Rusty

I wonder what the probability is that I am Skip?

Hmmm....I wonder too.

Well, at least you are no Bozo!

[fatlazyless]

With so many Republicans now in both the NH state senate and house, it seems like SB-27 could get passed because they want to "bring freedom to the waters," or some reason like that as candidate John Stephen said last October.

So, what's the procedure for a bill like this that gets started in the senate? Does it start in a senate committee, then go over to the house for a full house vote, and then back to the senate for a full senate vote, and then go to the governor's desk?
...........................

150' of safe passage space is just the blink of an eye in time when speeding around in a 27'-1200hp-8000lb GO-FAST going 70-mph, and that's why they like to refer to kayaks as "SPEED-BUMPS." .....ka-chunk.....hey did we just hit something? .....don't know....and don't care.....see you later!

Erica was smart enough to have a quart of vodka and a 38 handgun stored away on-board, but not smart enough to slow down to a very slow speed because she was "in a black hole" at the time. ....ka-chunk! ....goodbye Nicole....see you later!

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

*COUGH, COUGH* Where in my posts do you see my scouring the internet? WinnFabs site is germaine.

The editorial above uses this argument against SB-27[...The proposed change to the law would replace hard and fast numbers with the words "reasonable and prudent...]

And I simply ask you to show me data that supports a "hard and fast" 45 MPH limit. I've been patiently waiting for an answer but as of yet I hear silence. The silence is deafening

I have answered that question many times. Look back at the old speed limit threads and you can read all about it.

However if you look back at post 35 you will see a quote from the Marine Patrol Director.

"Over the past 10 years, Barrett said, there have been three boating deaths attributed to speed."


That one piece of DATA is all you should need.

[jarhead0341]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

I have answered that question many times. Look back at the old speed limit threads and you can read all about it.

However if you look back at post 35 you will see a quote from the Marine Patrol Director.

"Over the past 10 years, Barrett said, there have been three boating deaths attributed to speed."


That one piece of DATA is all you should need.

I'm sure the booze wasn't the problem. 3 mph slower would have made a difference or perhaps if they where all traveling at reasonable or prudent speed the outcome would have been different

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

I have answered that question many times. Look back at the old speed limit threads and you can read all about it.

However if you look back at post 35 you will see a quote from the Marine Patrol Director.

"Over the past 10 years, Barrett said, there have been three boating deaths attributed to speed."


That one piece of DATA is all you should need.

BI, do you really believe that a speed limit would have yielded ANY change in the outcome of the Blizzard crash? Seriously?

I'll go with your logic however and apply it too you. So since more than three shorefront owners around the lake probably have a dock or beach violation, then all private docks and beaches should be banned. Less docks would also mean less boats to make way for the campers too!

[Bear Islander]

Originally Posted by lawn psycho

BI, do you really believe that a speed limit would have yielded ANY change in the outcome of the Blizzard crash? Seriously?

I'll go with your logic however and apply it too you. So since more than three shorefront owners around the lake probably have a dock or beach violation, then all private docks and beaches should be banned. Less docks would also mean less boats to make way for the campers too!

So now you are equating "dock or beach" violations with speed related deaths. Really!

[lawn psycho]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

So now you are equating "dock or beach" violations with speed related deaths. Really!

No, my logic is that if ONE person is violating then we must pass legislation so NONE can violate.

[BroadHopper]

Originally Posted by Bear Islander

And for many years I personally went faster than 45 mph just about every day I was at the lake. And that is all summer.

I personally barefoot ski at around 53 mph. Since the speed limit passed, I still do. My neighbors and others says if the MP ever pick me up for speeding there will be one hell of a demonstration at the court house. I didn't see that coming, but if it happens I have no control. Everyone loves to see me ski.

There was a social meeting last summer about restarting the Winnipesaukee Water Ski races. Mainly because the teenagers around the lake are bored and getting into all kinds of mischief. During the racing years many teenagers were busy practicing for the races. Very little mischief going on. After talking with Dunleavy, it won't be practical with the speed limits. Everyone would have to fill out forms in advanced to practice. Causing a huge paper shuffle at MP headquarters.

Bet the SL supporters didn't see that coming. They just don't give a damn!