Irene??

[MAXUM]

Cell phone isn't going to do you any good if the cell towers loose power.

[CanisLupusArctos]

I've been waiting and watching, watching and waiting. Sunday is the day Irene would be here, lasting into Monday. BUT, it's too early to say "We're going to get a hurricane." It is NOT too early to take care of all those preparations that you should always have ready, at all times, anyway. Lots of people don't live prepared; and for them, times like this are the reminder to "do what you should have already done anyway."

So, if you're not one of those people who practices preparedness as a part of daily living, then now is a good time to start.

Otherwise... at this point in time with Irene...

1) Remember that Gloria hit in 1985, Bob in 1991, and we're all still here. Neither storm was "nothing," so don't take any of these storms lightly. Downed wires and falling trees are dangerous, whether they fall in a hurricane or a random afternoon thunderstorm.

2) Remember that it doesn't have to be a big storm to make damage in the lakes region. R2B mentioned that local effects will play a role. In 1999, Tropical Storm Floyd ( a former major hurricane) passed east of New England. Almost everywhere got a wind-driven rainstorm, but the wind funneled between various mountain ranges and hills and amplified, creating pockets of major damage well inland. The coast was spared, by comparison.

When I become more confident of Irene's track, I'll be able to talk about possible or likely *local* effects. In the meantime, plan on an early-season nor'easter with rain instead of snow.

[Pineedles]

Would driving from Nashua to Harttford, CT leaving at 9AM Sunday morning be a bad idea? Anyone?

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Would driving from Nashua to Harttford, CT leaving at 9AM Sunday morning be a bad idea? Anyone?

Too early to tell. These tropical storms are very hard to predict a few days out. Check the forecast on Friday afternoon and make a safe decision then.

Stay safe!

R2B

[trfour]

R2B nailed it!.. If it were me, I wouldn't want to be traveling toward bad weather. However, a lot can happen between now and Sunday. Keep an eye on this one.

Storm track as of this evening from the weather channel;

[jrc]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Would driving from Nashua to Harttford, CT leaving at 9AM Sunday morning be a bad idea? Anyone?

Looking at the latest charts, you will get to Hartford well before the storm. But if the conditions change, you could be on the road during the storm. Anyway you slice it, it could be a rough ride with rain and wind. I would delay till after the storm if possible. If not, leave as early as possible to make sure you are safe in Hartford before the storm hits. If it hits New England hard, knocking out power and phones, which town do you want to be in?

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Cell phone isn't going to do you any good if the cell towers loose power.

nearly every cell site has generator backup power.....

[Pineedles]

Thanks all! I will wait to see what the track of the storm does. As of this morning it doesn't look like it has changed much, but as you all say its too early to tell yet. I thought about the heavy rain but hadn't thought about downed wires and trees. Thanks.

[LIforrelaxin]

So I was reading the reports for the National Huricane Center to be found here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

The report in full with what I believe to be important in bold:

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.




In short it looks like Irene will be coming for Dinner over the weekend....I plan to be at the camp for the storm to keep an eye on things. I will probably run some extra security lines to the boat for safety. And potentially take the Jet ski out of the water. I will also throw the lawn chairs and tables into the boat shed to prevent them from scattering.

[Newbiesaukee]

There is a building site very near me with stuff strewn around as you would expect from a building site. Is there an obligation of the builder to secure the site to prevent flying debris as there is in FL?

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by Newbiesaukee

There is a building site very near me with stuff strewn around as you would expect from a building site. Is there an obligation of the builder to secure the site to prevent flying debris as there is in FL?

THere is, but insurance does cover stupidity, in an event like this, it would be a act of God making the stuff move around, so even though they would be at fault, the recovery from them would be slim to none, and repair work would be more than likely jsut paid out by your insurance company

SIDE NOTE:: MAKE SURE YOUR INSURANCE POLICIES FOR ALL YOUR PROPERTY (any type house boat, jetksi....) THAT MIGHT BE IN DANGER IS PAID UP TO DATE

[SIKSUKR]

Originally Posted by Newbiesaukee

There is a building site very near me with stuff strewn around as you would expect from a building site. Is there an obligation of the builder to secure the site to prevent flying debris as there is in FL?

Might be your chance to "secure" some of those valuable building materials that just "happened" to get lost in the storm.

[LIforrelaxin]

What just at my favorite Hurricane site and they are showing Irene coming further inland as of 2 p.m. It is appearing to come on land further and further south, which will help us up here as it will begin to lose intensity sooner once it hits land.

[jerseyonbear]

You should be ok . New Jersey has issued a state of emergency already. Looks like the storm is going to come on land near CapeMay and continue on over NYC. Hope all are safe and prepared.

[Winni-Retired]

This was just issued for the area approx 10 miles north of our NC beach condo ... Our barrier beach island will be next, I am sure.

My rentals will have to leave a day early and the one coming in will be delayed, but it is better than being injured or killed.

But it's only Aug, so all can be repaired before we use it in the spring and the rental season begins anew in 2012

Right now it's off to our NH marina today to double up the lines and add a few more bumpers and hope my Wolfeboro side of the lake is treated well


Hurricane Irene - Advisory #3 - Thursday, August 25 - 1 pm
Mandatory Evacuation Ordered!

A proclamation declaring a State of Emergency in Emerald Isle, and a mandatory evacuation has been ordered.

There is a mandatory evacuation ordered for all visitors to Emerald Isle beginning immediately.

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all residents and property owners for Friday, August 26.

As of 8 pm on Friday night, access to Emerald Isle will be restricted, and a curfew will be in effect until further notice.

No one will be permitted to access Emerald Isle after 8 pm on Friday night, and it will be illegal to be outside and off of one's own property
[/B]

[CanisLupusArctos]

The computer guidance seems to be settling on a track that takes the eye of Irene from a landfall near New York City (!!) up the Connecticut River: Hartford, Springfield, Lebanon, Littleton... and then into southern Quebec where it will lose its tropical characteristics and just be "a storm."

There is still some uncertainty about THIS track, but the margin of error is becoming less with every run of the computer models.

It appears that the storm's CENTER (eye) will track to our WEST.

IF that happens, we will be on the windy side of the system, where the wind comes up from the south. On that side of a tropical system, there is more wind damage and less rain. There is an increased chance of tornadoes.

Tornadoes are a part of most tropical systems. That is because air and water behave according to the same principles. When you paddle through the water, you may create big swirls in the water. If a swirl is big enough, you may see smaller swirls coming off of it, and spinning around it. The same thing happens in the air, on a larger scale. The center of a hurricane is like a giant swirl, and it's common for smaller ones to spin off of it.

Tornadoes that occur with hurricanes and tropical storms don't usually get to "Great Plains" strength like the EF-5 we saw in Joplin MO earlier this year. However, an EF-2 like we had in NH back in 2008 would not be out of the question.

Back in 2004 the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie produced a tornado over Meredith that became a waterspout over Meredith Bay. Sucking up all that water (which is heavy) is probably what killed it. It was on a path that would've taken it across Meredith Neck toward Black Cat Island. Instead, my weather station got an extremely heavy rainfall, quite suddenly. Looking back on it, I now wonder how much of that was actually rain that formed in the atmosphere, and how much of it was lake water coming back down.

To the WEST of the hurricane's eye, we can expect record rainfall but less wind. That will be falling on many areas that are already "topped off" for groundwater. The NYC area, for instance, has had a ton of rain lately. Bottom line: "River's gonna rise..."

Local effects from this storm will be easier to foretell tomorrow when the track becomes as certain as it's going to be prior to hitting. At the moment I would say expect strong winds from the southeast, shifting to south and then southwest (strongest), then to west (clearing) and finally northwest (decreasing, becoming chilly). That is all based on the forecast track issued 5 pm by the NHC.

[trfour]

Still early, and yet this storm needs paying attention to!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/...news/#44279864

Stay safe and be prepared everyone!
Terry
__________________________________

[Resident 2B]

After reviewing the 11 PM advisory from the NHC and doing some plotting of the forecast coordinates for 72 and 96 hours out, I am not completely sold on winds from the southerly direction any more. I want to point out, until the 11 PM advisory, I was thinking southerly winds, but I am not so sure anymore.

Looking at the plotting I did, the storm will pass within 20 to 30 miles to the west of the lake based on the forecasted locations at 72 and 96 hours and assuming a straight line betweem these coordinates, not a great assumption, but that is what I plotted. That is based on forecasted storm locations, 3 to 4 days out. There will be an error in this forecasted track because tropical systems do not behave as well as the computer models suggest. If the storm moves slightly right of the forecasted track, 40 miles or so, something entirely possible, the winds will be easterly swinging northerly and backing to the west. There could even be a calm period as the eye crosses.

Bottom line here is southerly winds are not a certainty any longer and we all need to prepare for winds from any direction at this time. This thing is forecasted to come very close to us here in the lakes region at this time!

Keep paying close attention to the NWS forecasts.

Be safe!

R2B

[SteveA]

Track as of this AM.



Looks like it moved east. Still a couple of days away, and as R2B said, is likely to change a number of times.

[chipj29]

Either way, we look to be in line for a boatload of rain!

[jrc]

please don't say "boatload of rain", I'm trying to figure out how to keep the rain out of my boat

[CateP]

My house is five blocks from the beach on the Jersey shore and my 25ft sailboat is in the water at a marina. I am presently at the lake renting a cabin. I am staying through the storm and hope and pray my house and boat are still there after this storm.

Hope all remain safe up here at the lake too.

[riverat]

this current track brings it over the belknap mts and over elacoya with wind speed of 74mph!

[Lucky2Bhere]

Could someone explain what happens very close to the eye of the storm. Is it strongest by the eyewall? Do the wind vs rain differences still hold on the east and west?

[CateP]

Originally Posted by Lucky2Bhere

Could someone explain what happens very close to the eye of the storm. Is it strongest by the eyewall? Do the wind vs rain differences still hold on the east and west?

Strongest winds are on the east side of the eye...but this storm is so big I don't think it will matter much where the eye tracks.

[LIforrelaxin]

Originally Posted by jrc

please don't say "boatload of rain", I'm trying to figure out how to keep the rain out of my boat

Just have the camper canvas??? No Mooring or cockpit cover?