Ice In

[Pine Island Guy]

we went out to the island yesterday and just a little ice around the mainland dock... it was a beautiful day for a ride in the alumacraft... but the 'wind chill' was freezing when we got any speed up!

we didn't see any (other fools) out on the water

hoping for ice -PIG

[Merrymeeting]

With temps remaining in the 40's through the night and heavy wind and rain, We should see much of the skim ice in the protected coves and bays disappear tomorrow night.

But then the next night will be in the low teens, and it will stay below freezing for 24+ hours, so much of it will probably reform.

[upthesaukee]

On the way to the dump, errrr landfill, errrrr Transfer Station (ah, politically correct at last), we noticed the ice in the bay was out past Sandy Point. This too will probably change over the next day or so, and then start to reform Thurs.

[ishoot308]

If you look at this thread; http://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/...ad.php?t=11360 it looks like the broads finally froze right around January 14th last year. Based on this and the 10 day forecast we will be at least two weeks or more later this year.

Thoughts or predictions??

Dan

[Resident 2B]

I look at long range weather models as a hobby. They are not always correct, but they do show a trend. Within the last week, two of these long range models have started to show that cold weather, below normal cold weather that is, is coming.

These two models are predicting each of the next three months of 2012 will be below normal temperature-wise in our part of the world. Since it appears the first week or so of January will be near or very slightly above normal, this tells me that it is possible the colder than normal weather will get going soon after the first week in January.

If this happens, it could "rescue" the winter activities on the lake. However, we are well behind where we should be this time of the year and as we get into late January, the sun angle gets higher and that starts impacting ice growth, especially if there is no snow on the ice to reflect back the suns rays.

Bottom line is, IF these two long range models are correct, we could still have a reasonable winter. However, if they do not have it right and the warm trend of the last six months continues, we will remember this winter as one with poor, unsafe ice conditions.

I only have been looking at temperatures, not the more complicated view on precipitation, so I am not saying these models are predicting big snow storms. They might or might not be doing this, I have not looked at this that deeply. We need to get it cold first.

I share this only to say there is a possible light at the end of the tunnel. Let's hope it is not another train!

R2B

[HomeWood]

As of now, weather.com (TWC) shows some pretty cold temps for the next 10days. The predicted 5* low will help give the ice a jump.

[Dhuberty24]

There was people on lake pemingewasset today

[meredith weekender]

Wmur stated today that this could be a year that Winni does not completely freeze over. Let's forget about ice inane just concentrate on ice out, ha ha ha.

[AC2717]

How does the lake look this morning?

[DickR]

Originally Posted by AC2717

How does the lake look this morning?

Cold.

Well, actually, with the sun out so brightly, the sky so blue, and no snow around as I look out over the water, it looks like a nice fall day. The wind isn't as strong as it had been, so there are no whitecaps between Long Island and the Neck. I do notice that in close to shore, for 50 ft or so out, the quieter water has allowed some ice to reform overnight. Further out, where the breeze is cooling the water rapidly, it also is turning over the surface and mixing it with slightly less cold water below it and delaying the freezing.

[ishoot308]

I have given up on seeing any kind of decent ice fishing or winter sport season on Winni this year. With the 10 day weather forecast predicting above freezing temps during the day and mid forties on Saturday, the chance of the broads freezing over this year are slim.

Oh well, looks like the camp will open just that much earlier this year!

Dan

[HomeWood]

I'll settle for bare ice at this point and I'll leave the sled in NC. I just want to be able to fish and ride the atv's to my favorite spots.

If anybody is up flying around, I'd like to see some pics of the lake from the sky. The webcams give me a good idea of what parts are freezing, but it's only a handful of areas.

[Grant]

Originally Posted by AC2717

How does the lake look this morning?

When I got up at midnight, the stretch between 20 Mile Bay and Moultonboro Neck/Black Island was entirely liquid & choppy. By the time I got up @ 6:15, the entire area was frozen, save for a small patch out toward #59 marker. However, most of Winter Harbor was still completely open. Once that wind calmed, the temps didn't take long to set it up.

[Resident 2B]

Don't give up yet! There will be less wind over the next few nights and the lake is cold enough to freeze, as CLA has pointed out. We could see the bays locking up by this Friday night, some sooner.

Yes, there will be one warm day Saturday, but by the following Thursday, it will be very cold. Winter is coming and it looks to be below normal cold for the period Jan 11th onward for a few weeks, perhaps longer. I expect that in the end, Jan and Feb will be below normal temperature wise. Time will tell, but I am fairly confident with this.

Once it gets cold, the snow will follow.

R2B

[Merrymeeting]

See earlier reference to 2006... most were giving up that year too.

The lake was frozen solid by late January.

[Resident 2B]

Check out the Weirs Cam time-lapse video for today. The wind goes down and the bay skims over. Wow!!!

R2B

[Mink Islander]

C'mon!! My bet is we'll have plenty of ice by 28th, maybe a little earlier. It's been a little slow in coming this year, but the weather patterns are beginning to trend more towards real winter. Ice is forming in the bays and beyond. Patience....

[Merrymeeting]

The water temp has dropped the past few days and is sitting in the low 30's. It won't take much. A few days of no wind and temps below 32 and it will skim over.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Don't give up yet! There will be less wind over the next few nights and the lake is cold enough to freeze, as CLA has pointed out. We could see the bays locking up by this Friday night, some sooner.

Yes, there will be one warm day Saturday, but by the following Thursday, it will be very cold. Winter is coming and it looks to be below normal cold for the period Jan 11th onward for a few weeks, perhaps longer. I expect that in the end, Jan and Feb will be below normal temperature wise. Time will tell, but I am fairly confident with this.

Once it gets cold, the snow will follow.

R2B

R2B;

I'm saying that I am giving up to throw Mother Nature off. Old Ma Nature knows how much I enjoy my winter time activities on the big lake and she is trying to mess with my head with all this warm weather! She likes doing stuff like that, she can be bitchy at times! I figure if I say I have given up it will throw her off just enough to get some cold weather here and get the ice locked up.

I'm feeling much better now!

Happy New Year!

Dan

[Pineedles]

[CateP]

Just want to report that the water in front of my rental house has frozen in motion. For the past two months I've been watching the winds kick up this little bay and this morning, all of a sudden it was frozen in place. Just like that. It's a very thin veneer of ice because I can see the water undulating beneath and moving this delicate frozen surface.

Fascinating.

[DickR]

This am the area between Long Island and the Neck is wall to wall ice.

[HomeWood]

Somebody on iceshanty.com states there is 4" of ice in Alton bay. Great start!

[tis]

Most of Winter Harbor has a very thin delicate layer this morning.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

R2B;

I'm saying that I am giving up to throw Mother Nature off. Old Ma Nature knows how much I enjoy my winter time activities on the big lake and she is trying to mess with my head with all this warm weather! She likes doing stuff like that, she can be bitchy at times! I figure if I say I have given up it will throw her off just enough to get some cold weather here and get the ice locked up.

I'm feeling much better now!

Happy New Year!

Dan

Dan,

Great strategy!

Happy New Year to you!

Enjoy whatever winter we get.

R2B

[riverat]

First house on yesterday with two guys chasing flags. Wow and only 4-5" of ice. I am anxious but not that anxious, one good warm rain could make a huge difference.

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by riverat

First house on yesterday with two guys chasing flags. Wow and only 4-5" of ice. I am anxious but not that anxious, one good warm rain could make a huge difference.

You're right...and that rain event will probably be here mid week next week. No real ice to speak of in Meredith unless you want to fish between the north shore and the little island with the Indian statue on it.

[Belmont Resident]

Originally Posted by hilltopper

You're right...and that rain event will probably be here mid week next week. No real ice to speak of in Meredith unless you want to fish between the north shore and the little island with the Indian statue on it.

Had to visit the vet Wednesday morning and I noticed a lot of the bay was skimmed over, and then the breeze picked up. It was really kind of cool to see it all just kind of fade away.

[Lakegeezer]

North of Moultonborough Bay (think light marker 14) it is all but frozen over now. We had a heavy dusting of snow this morning, so the holes in the ice are easily visible. Near rocks and in strange (probably spring fed) places, there are still small open spots, but for the most part, the ice is thick enough to gingerly walk on. Two inches is enough to keep the winds from removing the ice (for the fifth time this year) but not thick enough for anything more than a cautious foray near the shoreline or the local minks.

[Island Girl]

In keeping with tradition and philosophy (well mine anyway...) I am declaring this thread the Official Ice-in Thread rather than start a new one. Traditionally I start this thread in late Decemeber when it looks like the water is getting cold enough to freeze. It has been warm and I have been attending to other matters so am too late to start a new thread as this one has so much good info and pictures!

I love it when ice-in pics and discussion are all in one thread for easy reading. (again, just my philosophy, not a demand! )

The Ice-In Pageisup at www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm.

Here you can watch the lake freeze from many different cams. I think this is the 8th year the page has been live!

This year is a new cam.... one that has an incredible view, and is much welcome.

Please wander on over and see if you can find it! Thanks to our newest webcam operator!!!!

The lake temp reported by the dam operators is 35 degrees. The broads can freeze when this thermometer is at that reading or a little below. We don't really know what the lake temp is out there, this is just historically what has happened over the last several years.

Let it ice, let it ice, let it ice.......

IG

Sorry for being so late this year

[Merrymeeting]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Sorry for being so late this year

You weren't IG! The ice is! You are right on time. Just in time for "Ice-In"

[ITD]

Measured 8 inches of ice Blackey's cove, about 1000 feet from shore......

[JPerron2004]

Originally Posted by ITD

Measured 8 inches of ice Blackey's cove, about 1000 feet from shore......

Can you still see open water if you look out from the cove. I am doing the derby there and am interested on how much its freezing, i drove up this weekend and it didnt look very safe up there.Thanks

[ITD]

Originally Posted by JPerron2004

Can you still see open water if you look out from the cove. I am doing the derby there and am interested on how much its freezing, i drove up this weekend and it didnt look very safe up there.Thanks

I'm about half way down the cove, I didn't venture out far enough to see the outlet but would guess that beyond the entrance of the cove was not frozen yet. I think the cove is pretty much frozen, I drilled three holes as I walked out, all were 8 inches, I stopped because I ran out of time.

Center harbor was beginning to freeze, with I would say about 75% frozen, but it didn't look safe to me.

[JPerron2004]

Originally Posted by ITD

I'm about half way down the cove, I didn't venture out far enough to see the outlet but would guess that beyond the entrance of the cove was not frozen yet. I think the cove is pretty much frozen, I drilled three holes as I walked out, all were 8 inches, I stopped because I ran out of time.

Center harbor was beginning to freeze, with I would say about 75% frozen, but it didn't look safe to me.

Thank You i appreciate it, Im staying on Wilson road for the derby, which i would assume is closer to the outlet but cant be too much. Its our first time on this area of the lake for the derby, but everything i hear says its a good area.. Please update if and when possible as i live about an hour and 15 minutes away

[ITD]

Originally Posted by JPerron2004

Thank You i appreciate it, Im staying on Wilson road for the derby, which i would assume is closer to the outlet but cant be too much. Its our first time on this area of the lake for the derby, but everything i hear says its a good area.. Please update if and when possible as i live about an hour and 15 minutes away

I'm guessing you will be ok as long as you head into the cove versus toward CH. Just drill before you get too far. Good luck, I'm an hour and 45 minutes away but should be up again Monday or Tuesday.

Welcome to the Forum!!

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

In keeping with tradition and philosophy (well mine anyway...) I am declaring this thread the Official Ice-in Thread rather than start a new one. Traditionally I start this thread in late Decemeber when it looks like the water is getting cold enough to freeze. It has been warm and I have been attending to other matters so am too late to start a new thread as this one has so much good info and pictures!

I love it when ice-in pics and discussion are all in one thread for easy reading. (again, just my philosophy, not a demand! )

The Ice-In Pageisup at www.rattlesnakecam.com/icein.htm.

Here you can watch the lake freeze from many different cams. I think this is the 8th year the page has been live!

This year is a new cam.... one that has an incredible view, and is much welcome.

Please wander on over and see if you can find it! Thanks to our newest webcam operator!!!!

The lake temp reported by the dam operators is 35 degrees. The broads can freeze when this thermometer is at that reading or a little below. We don't really know what the lake temp is out there, this is just historically what has happened over the last several years.

Let it ice, let it ice, let it ice.......

IG

Sorry for being so late this year

That was EASY...Mr. Hughes has a cam at Minge Cove now??!!!