Long range weather models suggesting below normal Jan - Mar

[Resident 2B]

Two of the more significant long range weather models are now suggesting that Jan - Mar 2012 will be below normal temperature wise in the New England area. Now I know they are not always correct, but the trend is in the correct direction. We could have a winter after all.

For you weather techies out there, take a look at the ECWMF PSD 12/26 run and the CFSv2 12/25 run.

R2B

[Belmont Resident]

Most of the local stations are calling for normal or slightly above normal temps with no major storms in sight for the next 2 weeks.

I hope we do get some snow even if it doesn't last. I just put 3K into my plow truck and a few 4-6 inch storms will pay that right down.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Two of the more significant long range weather models are now suggesting that Jan - Mar 2012 will be below normal temperature wise in the New England area. Now I know they are not always correct, but the trend is in the correct direction. We could have a winter after all.

For you weather techies out there, take a look at the ECWMF PSD 12/26 run and the CFSv2 12/25 run.

R2B

R2B...until the NAO starts to go negative, we really can't expect much in the way of real snow can we? As you know the EURO often shows these big storms several days out only to have them disappear after a few runs.

BT

[Resident 2B]

I agree that the North Atlantic Oscillation needs to go negative. Most models have that happening by the second week in January.




R2B

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

I agree that the North Atlantic Osolation needs to go negative. Most models have that happening by the second week in January.




R2B

Hadn't had a chance to look at the ensembles that far out. Looks promising....but we'll see.

BT

[hancoveguy]

Yes but how can we use the flux capacitor to generate 1.1 gigawatts... That is the real question here...


Wow, you guys really lost most of us on this thread. You guys are wayyyyyyyy smarter than me..

Weather? (wait while I look outside) Okay it warm and rainy...Done.


HCG

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by hancoveguy

Yes but how can we use the flux capacitor to generate 1.1 gigawatts... That is the real question here...


Wow, you guys really lost most of us on this thread. You guys are wayyyyyyyy smarter than me..

Weather? (wait while I look outside) Okay it warm and rainy...Done.


HCG

I know just enough to get myself all confused and in trouble trying to interpret model output. We have seasoned pros here like Rose, R2B, CLA, and many others who really know what they are doing.
At least we've got something to talk about.....

BT

[SIKSUKR]

I've always considered myself a weather nut. In fact, most of my friends will ask me what the weather is going to do because I do stay that informed. But North Atlantic Oscilation? I guess I'm more in tune to localized short term weather trends. Keep bringin it on though.

[CanisLupusArctos]

I've always considered myself a weather nut. In fact, most of my friends will ask me what the weather is going to do because I do stay that informed. But North Atlantic Oscilation? I guess I'm more in tune to localized short term weather trends. Keep bringin it on though.

North Atlantic Oscillation... Pacific Decadal Oscillation... Solar Cycle...

These are three major players in what kind of winter we get, here in New England. They aren't the only three, but they're big.

The solar cycle affects the weather of the whole earth. It gets hotter, and it cools down. It doesn't burn at the same temperature all the time -- like any other fire. The sun goes in 11 year cycles. When the sun gets hotter, there are more sunspots, and flares of various classes and magnitudes. When it cools off, it goes spotless, and flares become a rare occurrence. Flares cause northern lights, telecom signal disruptions, etc. Sunspots are a visual indicator of how much power the sun's putting out.

Then you have the ocean cycles. The most basic way to explain it is to start by saying the lake has its "turnovers." It changes out its water. The water freezes and thaws, warms up and cools down. Being a small body of water, the lake goes through its cycles quickly. The oceans do cycles too. But, because they're MILES deep in places, they have a lot more water than the lake does, and take that much longer to run their cycles. It's way more complicated than that, but for the layperson that is the main idea of it.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation takes years to go through. Being the largest body of water on earth, it has more say in the weather on earth than any other body of water. When the Pacific produces a seasonal cycle it affects weather on earth for just that season. El Nino is seasonal warming of PART of the Pacific waters, and La Nina is seasonal cooling of those same waters. The whole ocean itself goes through a multi-year warm phase or cold phase, and that affects weather on earth.

The Atlantic has its own warm and cold phase called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation (that SIKSUKR commented on) is an atmospheric feature normally found (drumroll please...) over the North Atlantic. It's a smaller gear in the much larger "air machine" of the Arctic region.

Air flows as a fluid, like water does. A blimp and a submarine look pretty similar. The wings on an airplane resemble the fins on a shark. The atmosphere is fluid, like the ocean. Something doesn't have to be liquid to be fluid.

Cold air (found at the poles) is heavier than the air away from the poles. The cold air spills away from the poles like waves rolling up on the beach, with winter being "high tide" and summer being "low tide." The cold air pushes the lighter air out of its way and generates eddy-filled "wake turbulence" in the process. Each "eddy" is a spinning area of low pressure (in the middle of a whirlpool you can SEE that there is less water-- low water pressure is there. Same is true of air except you can't see it.)

When a wave of cold air rolls away from the pole, the warmer (lighter) air gets displaced-- the same "gravity-fed" concept that makes you feel a chilly draft in your 72-degree downstairs if you open up the 58-degree guest room upstairs. Warm air doesn't "rise," because nothing on earth rises without help. Air of a certain temperature is like any other material --it wants to be as close to the center of the earth as it can. Things layer away from the center of the earth by order of density, and temperature affects density. 69-degree lake water gets forced upward until there is 70-degree water above it. A life jacket gets pushed up to the surface of the water but no higher -- it's less dense than any of the water but more dense than air. An air bubble from a diver pops at the surface and keeps rising through the air until it reaches the height at which it "floats."

The air, flowing as a fluid, does not spill away from the poles evenly. We're spinning on a sphere-shaped planet made of different things, some of which absorb or reflect heat better than others. The air (held down by gravity) is in contact with them, and is constantly getting tugged along by friction from the surface of the earth. Therefore, the air spills away from the poles UNevenly... like wax from the top of a candle. Where it "drips" varies all the time. That general concept gives us "oscillation" in the polar air.

Again, it's a *general* concept and gets way more complicated than that, but for the layperson, that's the main idea of clashing air masses and weather.

Air and water behave as wobbly blobs, constantly in motion on an ever-spinning earth that is constantly being heated UNevenly by exposure to a nearby space fire.

We have detected patterns within the movements of those wobbly blobs -- some that last days, and some that last decades. There are probably more that we don't know about. All of them are ingredients in the recipe for our weather. We have named the ones we know about, and that's where we get titles like, "North Atlantic Oscillation."

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

North Atlantic Oscillation... Pacific Decadal Oscillation... Solar Cycle...

These are three major players in what kind of winter we get, here in New England. They aren't the only three, but they're big.

The solar cycle affects the weather of the whole earth. It gets hotter, and it cools down. It doesn't burn at the same temperature all the time -- like any other fire. The sun goes in 11 year cycles. When the sun gets hotter, there are more sunspots, and flares of various classes and magnitudes. When it cools off, it goes spotless, and flares become a rare occurrence. Flares cause northern lights, telecom signal disruptions, etc. Sunspots are a visual indicator of how much power the sun's putting out.

Then you have the ocean cycles. The most basic way to explain it is to start by saying the lake has its "turnovers." It changes out its water. The water freezes and thaws, warms up and cools down. Being a small body of water, the lake goes through its cycles quickly. The oceans do cycles too. But, because they're MILES deep in places, they have a lot more water than the lake does, and take that much longer to run their cycles. It's way more complicated than that, but for the layperson that is the main idea of it.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation takes years to go through. Being the largest body of water on earth, it has more say in the weather on earth than any other body of water. When the Pacific produces a seasonal cycle it affects weather on earth for just that season. El Nino is seasonal warming of PART of the Pacific waters, and La Nina is seasonal cooling of those same waters. The whole ocean itself goes through a multi-year warm phase or cold phase, and that affects weather on earth.

The Atlantic has its own warm and cold phase called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation (that SIKSUKR commented on) is an atmospheric feature normally found (drumroll please...) over the North Atlantic. It's a smaller gear in the much larger "air machine" of the Arctic region.

Air flows as a fluid, like water does. A blimp and a submarine look pretty similar. The wings on an airplane resemble the fins on a shark. The atmosphere is fluid, like the ocean. Something doesn't have to be liquid to be fluid.

Cold air (found at the poles) is heavier than the air away from the poles. The cold air spills away from the poles like waves rolling up on the beach, with winter being "high tide" and summer being "low tide." The cold air pushes the lighter air out of its way and generates eddy-filled "wake turbulence" in the process. Each "eddy" is a spinning area of low pressure (in the middle of a whirlpool you can SEE that there is less water-- low water pressure is there. Same is true of air except you can't see it.)

When a wave of cold air rolls away from the pole, the warmer (lighter) air gets displaced-- the same "gravity-fed" concept that makes you feel a chilly draft in your 72-degree downstairs if you open up the 58-degree guest room upstairs. Warm air doesn't "rise," because nothing on earth rises without help. Air of a certain temperature is like any other material --it wants to be as close to the center of the earth as it can. Things layer away from the center of the earth by order of density, and temperature affects density. 69-degree lake water gets forced upward until there is 70-degree water above it. A life jacket gets pushed up to the surface of the water but no higher -- it's less dense than any of the water but more dense than air. An air bubble from a diver pops at the surface and keeps rising through the air until it reaches the height at which it "floats."

The air, flowing as a fluid, does not spill away from the poles evenly. We're spinning on a sphere-shaped planet made of different things, some of which absorb or reflect heat better than others. The air (held down by gravity) is in contact with them, and is constantly getting tugged along by friction from the surface of the earth. Therefore, the air spills away from the poles UNevenly... like wax from the top of a candle. Where it "drips" varies all the time. That general concept gives us "oscillation" in the polar air.

Again, it's a *general* concept and gets way more complicated than that, but for the layperson, that's the main idea of clashing air masses and weather.

Air and water behave as wobbly blobs, constantly in motion on an ever-spinning earth that is constantly being heated UNevenly by exposure to a nearby space fire.

We have detected patterns within the movements of those wobbly blobs -- some that last days, and some that last decades. There are probably more that we don't know about. All of them are ingredients in the recipe for our weather. We have named the ones we know about, and that's where we get titles like, "North Atlantic Oscillation."

See what I mean????!!!! Awesome CLA....

[BoSox711]

When is it going to snow????

[crowsnest]

Can we get the short version

[Resident 2B]

It will turn cold and stay cold mid of next week. After that, it will snow.

R2B

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

It will turn cold and stay cold mid of next week. After that, it will snow.

R2B

I agree...and all is not lost. The pattern still looks to change by the end of next week to a more cold and more favorable storm track for New England. Time will tell....

BT

[Belmont Resident]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

I agree...and all is not lost. The pattern still looks to change by the end of next week to a more cold and more favorable storm track for New England. Time will tell....

BT

But I'll not hold my breath. Hopefully by the 28th there is good snow up north anyways. Just south of the Jackman ME. area is hosting the snowcross or cross country races on the 28th of this month.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by crowsnest

Can we get the short version

That was intended as a layman's tutorial on "how to understand the way we forecast seasons."

It IS the short version (you should see how complicated it gets...) But it can be further shortened to say this:

Imagine the earth and all of its systems as a giant, Swiss-made clock that we haven't completely figured out yet. In it, there are many, many gears. Each one is a separate cycle or process to which we humans have assigned a complicated-sounding name. And we continue discovering more cycles. Some are longer ("big gears") while others are shorter ("small gears.")

...and the forecast for this winter? I wouldn't hold out much hope for cold, based on the solar cycle. The sun's been on the "heat-up" side of its current cycle (due to peak next year) for the last couple of years, after being unusually dead for the first part of the cycle. The current solar cycle was like a car with an old battery starting on a really cold morning and it finally got going.

The sun is one of the big gears in the cycle, being the reason for all weather and life on earth. Smaller gears could throw that forecast off -- especially here in New England where localized patterns are often the reasons for the weather we get -- but generally the more energy the big space fire puts out, the more energy its nearby orbiting planets receive from it.

[hilltopper]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

It will turn cold and stay cold mid of next week. After that, it will snow.

R2B

Every time I think the cold air is headed in it seems to get delayed. Now they're talking a possible coastal storm next Wednesday night/Thursday but it will likely be too warm for anything but a mixed precip event or possibly an all rain event. No real arctic air in site until the 1/18 time period, but I'll believe it when I see it!

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by hilltopper

Every time I think the cold air is headed in it seems to get delayed. Now they're talking a possible coastal storm next Wednesday night/Thursday but it will likely be too warm for anything but a mixed precip event or possibly an all rain event. No real arctic air in site until the 1/18 time period, but I'll believe it when I see it!

From what I read, that will be the storm that effectively starts the "pattern" change.

[beagle]

I hope you have the time to share your talent educating more than just us forum-ites because you are gifted in thinking up great analogies to explain complex ideas! Thanks for explaining everything so well!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by beagle

I hope you have the time to share your talent educating more than just us forum-ites because you are gifted in thinking up great analogies to explain complex ideas! Thanks for explaining everything so well!

Thank you for the encouragement!

[trfour]

CanisLupusArctos, is the very best weatherman that we have since the passing of, and also an very beloved, Don Kent.

Keep us informed my friend, as always!

Terry
______________________________________

[Pineedles]

Looks like one of those small gears has ideas of its own about a warm winter. I heard the 2nd half of January is going to be a lot colder than the first half.

[phoenix]

and only 23 days until ice out contest begins:

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Looks like one of those small gears has ideas of its own about a warm winter. I heard the 2nd half of January is going to be a lot colder than the first half.

Wow, being compared to Don Kent... not sure what to say!

I am starting to see signs of the above. The way those greater "gears" have been moving this year -- the bigger picture -- I'm at the point where I see signs of real winter and think, "I'll believe it when I see it." But then again, there was October's... scratch of the record player... and as of last winter I have now seen all Boston's teams win the champs.... so... hmmm. Maybe this is the part where I'm supposed to stand at the North Pole with the sleigh bell in my hand and say, "I believe!"

[trfour]

We got hit pretty hard last year! This year has been a dribble!

Just to remind that when the world warms, shortly there after there is an ice age! I would advise FLL to purchase an snowmobile suit while they are still on sale!

Terry
_______________

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Looks like one of those small gears has ideas of its own about a warm winter. I heard the 2nd half of January is going to be a lot colder than the first half.

One of the larger gears, the Artic Osollation (AO), is forecast to go significantly negative and at the same time there is a ridge building across the Artic Circle from Alaska to northern China. The negative AO will allow the pool of Artic air to expand southward and the ridge will push more of the cold air over towards this side of the planet. The NAO trending negative will help some as well in channeling the cold air into the northeastern US.

All of these will be big players in the real winter weather just ahead. Enjoy it while it is here.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

One of the larger gears, the Artic Osollation (AO), is forecast to go significantly negative and at the same time there is a ridge building across the Artic Circle from Alaska to northern China. The negative AO will allow the pool of Artic air to expand southward and the ridge will push more of the cold air over towards this side of the planet. The NAO trending negative will help some as well in channeling the cold air into the northeastern US.

All of these will be big players in the real winter weather just ahead. Enjoy it while it is here.

R2B

Some are probably wondering what this means. Imagine the top of a candle (lit.) Wax melts down the candle, but not evenly. That's the way cold air "drips" away from the poles. Notice I said "away" rather than "down" because at the South Pole the cold air drips "up."

When one of these gears of the polar region "goes negative" or "goes positive" it usually means (visually) that the location of the 'wax drip' is about to shift from where it is, to where it isn't.

We're all familiar with the big round world map with the Americas on the left and Europe/Asia on the right but if you look at a round map with the North Pole in the center and plot the weather pattern on it, you'll see the cold air (Polar air mass) in the shape of a sci-fi blob monster with multiple arms... or the same shape that would appear on your floor if one of your (grand)kids dumped a half-cured bucket of joint compound off a step ladder just to watch it splat.

The splat-mark forms a certain shape that wobbles around day by day (weather) but also week by week, month by month, and year by year (longer-term cycles.)

The blob is cold air. Where one of its "wax drips" (or "blob arms") reaches down, usually that's where the storminess is. That's because iit collides with the air in front of it (which is always lighter) and acts as a boat going through water -- creating a turbulent "bow wake" as it goes.

That's what causes most of our stormy weather, in the northern 2/3 of the US.

Within the bow wake of your boat on the lake, you may notice swirls the size of your hand. In the "bow wake" of one of the "arctic wax drips" there are swirls too -- and those can be several hundred miles across. If they get strong enough they'll suck in air from 1,000 miles away or more. If the Gulf of Mexico happens to be within reach, then the vast moisture supply from the gulf will get drawn into the swirl's circulation where it would get thrown into the side of the cold air. Throwing vaporized moisture into cold air is what snowmaking crews at ski areas do.

The feed of moisture ("snowmaking hose") stretching from the gulf into the center of the swirl is in the way of the "bow of the boat" -- the leading edge of the cold air drip. The leading edge ("cold front" as military weather forecasters named it) is heavy and moves along the ground the same way as a giant torrent of water would do. When this torrent of cold air (the cold front) broadsides the warm/moist feed in a T-bone type collision, the gulf air gets lifted up, by the same laws of physics that allow a fast-moving tractor trailer truck to launch a deer up & away (venison, anyone?)

This collision results in turbulent updrafts that are the foundation for all severe weather (t-storms, tornadoes.)

The swirl ends up with a moisture feed being blasted into cold air to form a snowmaking machine on one side...

...and the leading edge of the cold torrent "t-boning and lifting" the moisture feed to form big thunderstorms and tornadoes on its other side.

The parent swirl is happening within the "bow wake" along the leading edge of a drip. And the drip is one of many such extensions of the polar air mass, which is shaped like a splat mark.

If any feature of the splat mark lingers in place long enough and seems to shift about in a pattern, we give it a name and start predicting its movements. Those movements cause a lot of weather.

[SIKSUKR]

Hey. I knew Don Kent and your no....Just kidding CLA. I am very familiar with your explanation but never attached the NAO or PDO tags to the cycle phenomenon. Very interesting.