Ice-Out Guess Contest Underway

[Fiddlin']

It will be the earliest ever, I believe. I'm guessing first day of Spring.

[Bear Island South]

Originally Posted by Fiddlin'

It will be the earliest ever, I believe. I'm guessing first day of Spring.

I like the sound of that, only 38 more days until spring.

[Merrymeeting]

What happens if we have ice-out before the guesses close?

(just kidding...we have a LONG way to go. But these Feb temps are something!)

[webmaster]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

What happens if we have ice-out before the guesses close?

I've thought about that possibility but I doubt everything would be open by then. If it looks like that may happen I'll probably suspend the guessing period early. It certainly has been a strange winter.

[Merrymeeting]

I don't think we need to worry about it until the nights start staying above or near to freezing. Even with these temps, much of what is lost during the day reforms at night.

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Originally Posted by webmaster

I've thought about that possibility but I doubt everything would be open by then. If it looks like that may happen I'll probably suspend the guessing period early. It certainly has been a strange winter.

It certainly has been a very strange winter. Better get my guess in quickly!

The ice is not looking very safe!


WeirsCam


MODIS (Last clear day before post - 2-12-12)


Minge Cove Webcam


BearCam


Moultonboro Bay Cam


Lake Winnipesaukee Weather Cam
Water Temperature at 2 ft: 35.7 °F
Water Temperature at 10 ft: 38.2 °F

[pontoonbarge]

Some data I grabbed from the great calendar on
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/tempcal/index.cgi

Last year the water wasn't at the 5th day of 37 until April 11. (ice out was :
april 19)

2010 the 5th day of 37 was Feb 24, with a record ice out of March 24.

2009 the 5th day of 37 was Apr 1st, with an ice out of: April 12th

2008 the 5th day of 37 was Apr 16, with an ice out of: Apr 23

2007 the 5th day of 37 was Apr 1st, with an ice out of: Apr 23

2006 the 5th day of 37 was Mar 29th(38F) with an ice out of April 3.

So we are 6 days earlier than the record, which if linear would predict an ice out of March 18th. But we are 40 days earlier than the next closest ice out in 5 years. And that would (if linear) give us an ice out of April 3 - 40 days = ~Feb 24....

Of course, we know there's no magic answer....From reading other posts I gather that the melting process is strongly dependent on what's on the ice, and how sunny it is, the uncovered ice acting like a solar cover on a pool, etc. Then when the ice is really rotted -- what day will bring a strong blow of wind to really knock it apart.... There's some great footage of an ice out in Alaska in the film, "Alone in the Wilderness" where Dick Proenneke discusses the breakup of the ice in the lake where he built his camp. (The book - Alone in the Wilderness - is very good, too.) Winter is a bit colder there... Ahem... -45F....

[Bear Island South]

That is a great compilation of statistics, I think you are on to something with the early ice-out.

My guess is 3/28 but I will take 10 days earlier.

[fatlazyless]

www.unionleader.com/20120219/NEW502/702199955 is in today's newspaper and is about Dive Winnipesaukee in Wolfeboro and their business for retrieving cars, trucks and snowmobiles that break through the lake ice plus it has a photograph.

[Lakegeezer]

Check the webcam. http://sebagocam.com/ No ice!

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

Check the webcam. http://sebagocam.com/ No ice!

LG,

We never had "ice in". A few days of ice lasting up to a week or so but that was it. At least 3 of every ten years we don't get ice. Many of the locals predicted in December that given the weather pattern Sebago wouldn't freeze. Turns out they were correct.

BT