Lake starting to freeze

[Lucy Goose]

Looks like we have the beginning of some ice forming here in the Melvin area!

LG

[camp guy]

Oh, no, say it isn't so, Lucy! But, I think you are right, I, too, saw signs of skim ice several places, and, whether we want it or not, the calendar is marching on and cold weather is on the way. Anyone who has ever tried to "fool Mother Nature" knows it is a losing proposition.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Visiting Laconia driving down the Rt. 11 bypass to Laconia Airport I noticed Lily Pond was almost completely covered in a very thin layer of ice.

[Blue Thunder]

With the water temp still in the mid 40s it will be weeks, 4-6+before the lake freezes beyond the coves, bays and shallow areas.....

[LongBay]

I was wondering why that pontoon boat was doing a bee-line down the bay heading to the marina and not enjoying the lovely boating weather.

[billy]

it actually was pretty nice out on the island today without the wind of the past few. dock was a little slippery tho

[Lakesrider]

Don;t worry it is supposed to warm up a bit....46 this coming Sunday. A real heat wave....

[fatlazyless]

....oh no.......have a 40-gal plastic el cheapo trashcan from Walmart, full of lake water, that I use to test run an old outboard motor.....and the other day......noticed the top one inch had turned to ice overnight.....good grief.....does that mean the whole 22-mile long x 188' deep fresh water Winnipesaukee will soon be all covered with ice too.....oh no?

[Merrymeeting]

As Blue Thunder said, the water temp still has a ways to go before we need to worry about the whole lake freezing. Air temps in the mid-40's during the day next week. Though a 24 hour period on Friday, when it will stay below freezing, will cool things.

The lake typically freezes sometime around New Years, plus or minus a week or so. Seems to be on a normal track this year too.

[CrownRay]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

As Blue Thunder said, the water temp still has a ways to go before we need to worry about the whole lake freezing. Air temps in the mid-40's during the day next week. Though a 24 hour period on Friday, when it will stay below freezing, will cool things.

The lake typically freezes sometime around New Years, plus or minus a week or so. Seems to be on a normal track this year too.

Yes, but if I recall, the lake water "flips over" in the process. The colder water underneath comes to the surface.

Up in Maine at the farm, the critters' water buckets have been "break the ice with a hammer" frozen each morning

[Mink Islander]

Actually, what happens is water becomes more dense as it cools (and therefore the colder water sinks) until about 39 degrees. Then it reverses. Below that temp, the colder water actually becomes LESS dense so it floats above the warmer water below. That's why ice forms on top of water that is above freezing. Coves and ponds freeze sooner because there's less water volume that has to cool to 39 degrees before the trasition to surface freezing can occur. So watch for the lake water to hit 39 degrees -- full lake freezing accelerates from there (air temps and wind levels depending).

[Merrymeeting]

Lake "flip" occurs in the Spring and Fall as the water above becomes more dense and the lower and upper levels approach the same temperature. The process, and the part Mink Islander mentions, is described well here.

http://www.waterontheweb.org/under/l...ification.html

[Belmont Resident]

If the forecasters can be believed it now looks like the warm-up is lasting into next weekend.
Temp may top 60 Tuesday then cooling down Wednesday but then warming back up again Thursday and Friday.
I really do not want to see another warm, snow-less winter but someone did say that the models they looked at were showing it.

[snowflake]

Do I see a little ice on the Moultenboro Bay cam? Snowint in Boston area. How perfect for the first day of Meterological winter! I'm still hoping to see a tree on the Mount.

[upthesaukee]

Here is a picture from Harmony Park looking toward Downing's Landing and Rte 11 bridge. Snow on the water!!!!! And my boat came out just a few weeks ago.

[HomeWood]

Sweet, upthe!!!

[Winnisquamguy]

Originally Posted by Belmont Resident

If the forecasters can be believed it now looks like the warm-up is lasting into next weekend.
Temp may top 60 Tuesday then cooling down Wednesday but then warming back up again Thursday and Friday.

I got this off New England Weather Works Facebook page along with the map.

THE LONG WAIT IS OVER

Finally I have some good news, but that depends greatly on what you like as far as the weather is concerned. Judging by what most of the page viewers have been telling us it's cold and snow you all like, well we believe what has alluded you last season, is going to impact you big time this season.

Looking at the overall big picture, we see that a major pattern shift is coming after this small warm spell, we know last season you heard it time and time again and the only thing that flipped were snow lovers patience.

Looking at the Operational Modeling suggests that there is better than fair agreement that Cold and stormy weather is heading this way and will become locked in place, combining this with a NAO that will be tanking along with the AO spells trouble with a capital T.

Off the U.S. mid-Atlantic Coast we will begin focusing our attention with great interest next week, Water and air temperatures will differ by as much as 18°F to 27°F over a 6-mile South North distance, this is an area in which storms will form more frequently as the upcoming trough begins to settle in, a more complex definition would deal with the atmosphere’s baroclinic energy, or the energy generated by inequalities in temperature and pressure, these strong temperature contrasts could end up becoming a weather bomb and the fuse will be lit.

Strong upper-air disturbances in next weeks southern jet stream over the area of extreme temperature contrast and lower SLPs near the surface of the ocean will bring either Nor Easter or Major Winter Storm into the headlines next week, this is something we talked about in our winter outlook and have been waiting patiently to see it materialize.

The long range outlook map we posted this morning will be reposted and dated allowing you to follow along as the confidence changes, for now we warm up a tad, after that it's GAME TIME .

[Belmont Resident]

Originally Posted by Winnisquamguy

I got this off New England Weather Works Facebook page along with the map.

THE LONG WAIT IS OVER

Finally I have some good news, but that depends greatly on what you like as far as the weather is concerned. Judging by what most of the page viewers have been telling us it's cold and snow you all like, well we believe what has alluded you last season, is going to impact you big time this season.

Looking at the overall big picture, we see that a major pattern shift is coming after this small warm spell, we know last season you heard it time and time again and the only thing that flipped were snow lovers patience.

Looking at the Operational Modeling suggests that there is better than fair agreement that Cold and stormy weather is heading this way and will become locked in place, combining this with a NAO that will be tanking along with the AO spells trouble with a capital T.

Off the U.S. mid-Atlantic Coast we will begin focusing our attention with great interest next week, Water and air temperatures will differ by as much as 18°F to 27°F over a 6-mile South North distance, this is an area in which storms will form more frequently as the upcoming trough begins to settle in, a more complex definition would deal with the atmosphere’s baroclinic energy, or the energy generated by inequalities in temperature and pressure, these strong temperature contrasts could end up becoming a weather bomb and the fuse will be lit.

Strong upper-air disturbances in next weeks southern jet stream over the area of extreme temperature contrast and lower SLPs near the surface of the ocean will bring either Nor Easter or Major Winter Storm into the headlines next week, this is something we talked about in our winter outlook and have been waiting patiently to see it materialize.

The long range outlook map we posted this morning will be reposted and dated allowing you to follow along as the confidence changes, for now we warm up a tad, after that it's GAME TIME .

Ya I got it from you on FB. Hope it's true I just got the plow and sander all checked out.
I'm ready and hoping.
I hope you are healing well buddy!

[phoenix]

water temps are ahead( meaning colder) of last year by more than two weeks.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by phoenix

water temps are ahead( meaning colder) of last year by more than two weeks.

That is a VERY good sign for an early ice in!!

Dan

[Merrymeeting]

Just back from running some errands around the Alton / Wolfeboro area. Smaller ponds that were frozen last week are now ice free. The temps with this recent warm front will slow things down a bit.

[RailroadJoe]

57 degrees in Gilford today. Lily pond still frozen over, though.

[Belmont Resident]

I thought after this warm-up things would be cooling back down. Boston stations are showing 60's for next week.
It's like spring thaw mud everywhere.

[fatlazyless]

Looking at the still very green grass in the Waterville Valley golf course, it looks like today could be a great day to hit the links and work on your golf swing. 7-acre Corcoran's Pond has lost a lot of its' ice in yesterday's all-day rain and warm temps? Looking at the trail conditions in www.waterville.com there is not even a hint of concern about this unusual December warm-up ... a sign of eternal optimism maybe?

[phoenix]

lake at 40 degrees about one week ahead of last year

[fpartri497]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

Looking at the still very green grass in the Waterville Valley golf course, it looks like today could be a great day to hit the links and work on your golf swing. 7-acre Corcoran's Pond has lost a lot of its' ice in yesterday's all-day rain and warm temps? Looking at the trail conditions in www.waterville.com there is not even a hint of concern about this unusual December warm-up ... a sign of eternal optimism maybe?

have you been collecting used golf balls to return for a refund ?

[John A. Birdsall]

I am ready for Ice Out, but sadly my boat is not. Have removed all the seats and they won't be back till spring.

[phoenix]

John only 49 days until ice out contest begins