El Nino

ishoot308 · 12-23-2015, 03:22 PM

Wow PBFF, What weather site is that? The "Weather Channel" shows it being a lot warmer than than your extended forecast... http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...nav_undeclared

I like yours better!!

Merry Christmas!

Dan

PaugusBayFireFighter · 12-23-2015, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Wow PBFF, What weather site is that? The "Weather Channel" shows it being a lot warmer than than your extended forecast... http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...nav_undeclared

I like yours better!!

Merry Christmas!

Dan

Merry Christmas to you as well.
That's Accuweather. I have a few sites I like but my favorite is "Storm" from Weather Underground. The maps are great. They have many options like lightning warning, animated wind flow, storm cell direction and eta to each town, etc.. Here is our current map. If you, or anyone, likes weather...check it out!

Blue Thunder · 12-24-2015, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Merry Christmas to you as well.
That's Accuweather. I have a few sites I like but my favorite is "Storm" from Weather Underground. The maps are great. They have many options like lightning warning, animated wind flow, storm cell direction and eta to each town, etc.. Here is our current map. If you, or anyone, likes weather...check it out!

I am using the "Storm" app on my phone as well. Excellent graphics and live radar come in very handy especially in the summer when boating.

Merrymeeting · 12-24-2015, 09:21 AM

Assuming the forecast holds, we'll see lots of ice formation and return to "normalcy" next week. Long range forecast shows 7+ days of very low temps, and days where it barely gets above freezing. Bays and calm areas should be iced over by New Years.

ishoot308 · 12-24-2015, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Assuming the forecast holds, we'll see lots of ice formation and return to "normalcy" next week. Long range forecast shows 7+ days of very low temps, and days where it barely gets above freezing. Bays and calm areas should be iced over by New Years.

I would agree with you IF the water temp was around 34 degrees but it isn't...The water temp still needs to drop about 10 degrees and that's not going to happen overnight. At best water temps drop 1 degree per day in very cold weather, so we need need 10 days of cold weather just to get water temps where they need to be to start freezing.

I hope I'm wrong...

Merry Christmas!

Dan

Formula260SS · 12-24-2015, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

I would agree with you IF the water temp was around 34 degrees but it isn't...The water temp still needs to drop about 10 degrees and that's not going to happen overnight. At best water temps drop 1 degree per day in very cold weather, so we need need 10 days of cold weather just to get water temps where they need to be to start freezing.

I hope I'm wrong...

Merry Christmas!

Dan

I totally agree, where can we get Water Temp Data? I can't find it anywhere

Merrymeeting · 12-24-2015, 02:36 PM

Most of the "official" temp sites are offline for one reason or another.

I took a reading of 40 degrees with mine on Tuesday, which usually tracks with Winni fairly well.

My comment about the bays and calm areas is based on a forecast that shows averages in the 20's for several days. Usually the coves will start skimming over when the readings are 38 or below, and the air is colder.

Sunset Lake in Middleton was completely skimmed over a few days ago. Granted it is a smaller, shallow lake. But things must be getting close for areas like that one to skim completely over even when it only gets minimally cold for one day.

brk-lnt · 12-24-2015, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Usually the coves will start skimming over when the readings are 38 or below, and the air is colder.

I think that is predicated on a streak of cold weather leading up to that point. The unseasonably warm weather has kept the lake much warmer and it's going to take several weeks of weather in the 30's to pull enough heat out of the lake for the shallow areas to start freezing.

We've got some cold nights coming up, with days dancing around the freezing point and spots of sun. I'm not really a big weather junkie but if you look at the NOAA outlook:

we see trends of above-average temps and average precip. This, to me, would indicate a poor ice season overall this year. I wouldn't anticipate safe ice for another ~3 weeks at least.

PaugusBayFireFighter · 12-25-2015, 09:15 AM

I've been around long enough to be skeptical about snow forecasts more than 24 hours out, but here's the forecast for Tuesday in Laconia. Same deal in Mass.

secondcurve · 12-25-2015, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

I've been around long enough to be skeptical about snow forecasts more than 24 hours out, but here's the forecast for Tuesday in Laconia. Same deal in Mass.

Wow. Talk about a turnaround. Let's hope it happens. The businesses who depend on cold weather and snow are being hurt badly.

Merrymeeting · 12-25-2015, 04:47 PM

Water temp, 43 today

trfour · 12-25-2015, 05:57 PM

Snow??

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weathe...cid=spartanntp

SteveA · 12-29-2015, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Wow PBFF, What weather site is that? The "Weather Channel" shows it being a lot warmer than than your extended forecast... http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...nav_undeclared

I like yours better!!

Merry Christmas!

Dan

Here is that web site Dan:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/lac...orecast/334467

sum-r breeze · 12-30-2015, 12:01 PM

So after it is all said and done, how much snow did we get around the Laconia / Gilford area of the lake with the storm on 12/29?

The Breeze
Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back

upthesaukee · 12-30-2015, 12:31 PM

I live just up from the lake and just outside Sandy Point, and we got 4-5 inches of snow, measured as the storm was winding down. We were getting freezing rain and sleet at the time, so there may have been some settling.

ishoot308 · 12-30-2015, 12:49 PM

I would say the same 4"-5" in Gilford....

trfour · 12-30-2015, 02:43 PM

... http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/top...cid=spartanntp

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...mepage%2Fstory

FLL blames it all on D Trump...

PaugusBayFireFighter · 12-30-2015, 04:07 PM

Christmas Island ~5" then some sleet/freezing rain. Most of what fell will be gone by New Years. Lake is still 40 degrees.
Only 80 days till spring!

chipj29 · 01-02-2016, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Christmas Island ~5" then some sleet/freezing rain. Most of what fell will be gone by New Years. Lake is still 40 degrees.
Only 80 days till spring!

Most of what fell here in Bow (30 miles south of you) is pretty much bullet proof. I took a walk this afternoon, and barely broke through the surface. There was a LOT of moisture in that 4" of snow.

12-23-2015, 03:22 PM	#1
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,341 Thanks: 2,412 Thanked 5,337 Times in 2,086 Posts	Wow PBFF, What weather site is that? The "Weather Channel" shows it being a lot warmer than than your extended forecast... http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...nav_undeclared I like yours better!! Merry Christmas! Dan __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

12-25-2015, 09:15 AM	#9
PaugusBayFireFighter Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 837 Thanks: 361 Thanked 674 Times in 264 Posts	Be careful what you wish for I've been around long enough to be skeptical about snow forecasts more than 24 hours out, but here's the forecast for Tuesday in Laconia. Same deal in Mass. Attached Images

12-25-2015, 05:57 PM	#12
trfour Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX. Posts: 3,694 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 3,069 Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts	Could It Be... Snow?? http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weathe...cid=spartanntp Attached Images __________________ *trfour* Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html

12-30-2015, 12:01 PM	#14
sum-r breeze Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Burlington Ma / Laconia NH Posts: 396 Thanks: 155 Thanked 201 Times in 97 Posts	How much? So after it is all said and done, how much snow did we get around the Laconia / Gilford area of the lake with the storm on 12/29? The Breeze Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back

12-30-2015, 12:31 PM	#15
upthesaukee Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Alton Bay Posts: 5,607 Blog Entries: 2 Thanks: 2,477 Thanked 1,984 Times in 1,084 Posts	Alton Bay above Sandy Point I live just up from the lake and just outside Sandy Point, and we got 4-5 inches of snow, measured as the storm was winding down. We were getting freezing rain and sleet at the time, so there may have been some settling. __________________ I Live Here... I am always UPTHESAUKEE !!!!

12-24-2015, 09:21 AM	#4
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,227 Thanks: 304 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	Assuming the forecast holds, we'll see lots of ice formation and return to "normalcy" next week. Long range forecast shows 7+ days of very low temps, and days where it barely gets above freezing. Bays and calm areas should be iced over by New Years.

12-24-2015, 02:36 PM	#7
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,227 Thanks: 304 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	Most of the "official" temp sites are offline for one reason or another. I took a reading of 40 degrees with mine on Tuesday, which usually tracks with Winni fairly well. My comment about the bays and calm areas is based on a forecast that shows averages in the 20's for several days. Usually the coves will start skimming over when the readings are 38 or below, and the air is colder. Sunset Lake in Middleton was completely skimmed over a few days ago. Granted it is a smaller, shallow lake. But things must be getting close for areas like that one to skim completely over even when it only gets minimally cold for one day.

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to PaugusBayFireFighter For This Useful Post:
pondguy (12-25-2015), trfour (12-25-2015)

12-25-2015, 04:47 PM	#11
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,227 Thanks: 304 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	Water temp, 43 today

12-30-2015, 12:49 PM	#16
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,341 Thanks: 2,412 Thanked 5,337 Times in 2,086 Posts	Same I would say the same 4"-5" in Gilford.... __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

12-30-2015, 02:43 PM	#17
trfour Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX. Posts: 3,694 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 3,069 Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts	El Niño ... http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/top...cid=spartanntp https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...mepage%2Fstory FLL blames it all on D Trump... __________________ *trfour* Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html Last edited by trfour; 12-30-2015 at 03:15 PM. Reason: Add link

12-30-2015, 04:07 PM	#18
PaugusBayFireFighter Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 837 Thanks: 361 Thanked 674 Times in 264 Posts	Christmas Island ~5" then some sleet/freezing rain. Most of what fell will be gone by New Years. Lake is still 40 degrees. Only 80 days till spring!