Official 2017 Ice Out Thread

[Island Girl]

This is the Official 2017 Ice-Out Thread. If you reply to this thread all of the information about this year's ice-out will be easily accessible to our forum friends.

I thought this thread was early last year on March 1 and here we are on February 27 watching the ice go out. The ice in front of my house on the broad side of Rattlesnake Island looks uneven and punky.

Post your observations, concerns, pictures and whatever else comes to mind re: ice-out. We love your pictures!

The Ice-Out page is up at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/watch.htm.

There you will find all of the Winnipesaukee WebCams to watch the ice melt as well as links to special ice out features such as Saunder's Bay daily picture with information about previous year's ice out. (I will post link when it is available.)

Ice-out has occurred in recent years when the lake temperature is from 39-41 degrees as reported by the Winnipesaukee Dataphone at the Lakeport Dam. Today the temp is 35 degrees. (it was 38 on March 1 last year)

Let's get on with our favorite activity ... Ice-Out!
__________________
Island Girl

[ishoot308]

Tomorrow and Thursday should cause some serious damage to the ice on the lake. Between the rain, the 60 degree temperature and the high winds, this is a perfect recipe to erase a lot of ice! Lets just hope the winds don't raise havoc with anyone's dock!

Dan

[Island Girl]

The ice is getting gray, a sure sign of ice out coming early this year.

[Slickcraft]

View today from Scenic Road, near Ellacoya. Looking toward Welch. A bit less ice than seen in ishoot's photo from 2 days ago.
https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums...ad.php?t=21717

Alan

[Island Girl]

There must be damage done to the ice with all of this fog today. Just a beautiful picture.

[Merrymeeting]

Anyone have a reliable way to get the water temperature? In the past, the water temperature has been a good indicator of impending ice-out. Once it went over 38 degrees, ice-out was usually shortly thereafter.

[Slickcraft]

Ice and whitecaps, view today from Belknap Point.

[Island Girl]

I call the Winnipesaukee Data Phone. They report several data points including the Lake Temperature. I post that from time to time at www.rattlesnakecam.com/watch.htm.

I use this because it is what has been used for many years. Yesterday and todays temp was 37. The previous two days were 35, then 36. My recollection is that ice out happens at 39 or warmer.

603-527-0071 The lake temp is the last data point he reads right after the precipitaition.

IG

[CAVU]

I would say we should be thickening the ice up over the next few days especially Fri-Sun highs teens/twenties, lows near zero.. The bays must still have good ice, it was definitely much better than last year

[Island Girl]

Here is from Melvin Village

[Island Girl]

Things have opened up a bit this afternoon.

[Island Girl]

From Bear Island.. this opened up a lot today.

[WIS]

Looking towards Rattlesnake and Sleepers:

[Prestige Worldwide]

Long Island yesterday.

[draintheswamp Jim]

I was very bored so I took a look at the 130 ice out dates and I came up with some interesting observations.
Not in any particular order
Over the 130 years the average ice out is April 19th.
The earliest ice out was in 2016 which occurred on March 18th
The latest ice out was on 12 May in 1888
Ice out has occurred in March 5 times ( three of them in the last 7 years)
Ice out has occurred in May 13 times, the most recent was in 2001
Ice out normally occurs in April, 112 times
The latest ice out average for any ten-year period was the first ten years’ records were kept when it averaged ice out on April 26th.
The earliest ice out average for any ten-year period is the last ten years when it has averaged ice out on April 11th.
The latest ice out average for any twenty-year period was the first twenty years’ records were kept when it averaged ice out on April 23rd
The earliest ice out average for any twenty-year period is the last twenty years when it has averaged ice out on April 13th.
The all-time average ice out over 130 year is 19 April
From 1888 to 1959 ice out average was on 19 April
Since 1950 the ice out average is on 18 april
Since 1960 the ice out average was on 18 April
Since 1970 ice out average was on 17 April
Since 1980 ice out average was on 15 April
Since 1990 ice out average was on 14 April
Since 2000 ice out average was on 13 April
Since 2010 out ice average was on 8 April
2 times in the last 3 years, ice out has been later than the 19th of April the 130 year average. The other year was the earliest ice out ever.
Not that it has anything to do with Lake Winne, but the ice on my farm pond in Northern Mass went out on Feb 27th last year which was the earliest I ever remember in the last 6o years This year it was out on Feb 26th

[Slickcraft]

Welcome to the forum Jim. I guess that is was a slow day.

[ishoot308]

The wind for the past few days has really been brutal! I have been watching these giant ice sheets go flying across the broads on a daily basis. These ice chunks have to end up somewhere. I hope everyone's docks downwind don't get too beat up!

Dan

[Slickcraft]

In spite of the cold, there is more open water visible form Belknap Point than 3 days ago. The wind won out.

[Blue Thunder]

Beautiful crystal clear shot today...

[Flyfisha]

Took a ride to check out Rattlesnake today and this is what we found!!

[HellRaZoR004]

Originally Posted by Flyfisha

Took a ride to check out Rattlesnake today and this is what we found!!

Looks like the wind is breaking up the ice fast!

[COW ISL TIME]

Looking Northeast, Shaw peak, Today 10:30

[MAXUM]

Looking across to Bear/Pine from Sheps, on Saturday.

[pontoonbarge]

Picture from broads side of Rattlesnake...I see more water out there in the distance!

[HomeWood]

It looks like there is still a bob house off Long Island almost straight out from the lighthouse. See Trexler's webcam. I wonder if whatever is out there can even be retrieved at this point.

[rsmlp]

The recent ice outs definitely suggest a warming trend-and this year will be no exception. Winters here have turned into a kind of blah more inconvenient mess than fun winter activities. NOT a political opinion just an objective dispassionate observation.

[Island Girl]

Now the icebergs begin on the very windy day. Pray for no damage out three

[JMR]

This is the view from the top of Gunstock Mountain yesterday afternoon. Not shown, the south end of Rattlesnake was open all the way to Ship and Moose Islands. The south side of the peninsula was open. As you can see the Broads were wide open. North side of Rattlesnake peninsula was cracking, as was Alton Bay.
In spite of weather forecast this weekend, it won't be long!

[Island Girl]

Here is the broads going out this morning from 7-9 am.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/IceOut2017-TheBroads.mp4

You can't stop Mother Nature!

IG

[DRH]

Great video, IG! The winds are fierce here today out of the northwest, as your video certainly shows.

[Slickcraft]

A lot more water showing off of Belknap Point today. Cold and very windy so I was a wimp and took the photo sitting in my truck. Looks like the wind caused the lake to tilt

[ishoot308]

Almost all slush on the West side of Welch!!!

https://video.nest.com/clip/0dfe2032...6fc036682a.mp4

Dan

[Safe Harbor]

What ice?! From Long Island this afternoon...

[jeffatsquam]

Originally Posted by Safe Harbor

What ice?! From Long Island this afternoon...

Recognized that awesome view almost immediately, thanks for posting.

[JMR]

My friends are launching a pontoon boat at Ames Farm as I type this and heading to Rattlesnake Island, Broad side. Watch for them on the web cams. They will be waving. Unfortunately, I could not go. We have always been on the island prior to official Ice Out, but not this year for me.


Looking forward to a long season on the lake.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by JMR

My friends are launching a pontoon boat at Ames Farm as I type this and heading to Rattlesnake Island, Broad side. Watch for them on the web cams. They will be waving. Unfortunately, I could not go. We have always been on the island prior to official Ice Out, but not this year for me.


Looking forward to a long season on the lake.

In my humble opinion, that is crazy as there is still a ton of ice west of rattlesnake that could very easily and will eventually get blown in that direction possibly locking them in. I have been watching the ice flows all week from my home heading east some are huge!

To each their own I guess.....

Dan

[Island Girl]

No boat has gone my my cams yet. The saving grace today is it is dead calm. There are a lot of iceberg floating around. I hope they are very careful.

IG

[SIKSUKR]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Here is the broads going out this morning from 7-9 am.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/IceOut2017-TheBroads.mp4

You can't stop Mother Nature!

IG

That is one incredible video that really shows what happens. Where did it all end up? Wow!

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by SIKSUKR

That is one incredible video thet really shows what happens.Where did it all end up?Wow!

If history is any indication: Right thru my dock

[JMR]

They made it out and sent a pic. No ice in sight. They would love to be stuck out there. They would crank up the fire and hunker down. It has happened to them before.

[flyguy]

WOW! That time lapse you posted on YouTube is awesome! Guess we'll have to do a flyover- don't see it refreezing soon.

Thanks again!

[Loub52]

3/10/17 @5:10p. Ice as far as the eye can see.

[DRH]

It's only +1 deg. here this morning but we have very strong, gusty wind out of the northwest. We're beginning to see some small areas of open water between the mainland (between Minge Cove and Smalls Cove) and Sleepers Island. Even those small areas of open water have whitecaps today, which eat away at the ice. Today's wind is no doubt putting intense pressure on the ice in this area. If that results in some major stress cracks, the wind could push it all to the southeast as we saw in Island Girl's excellent video of the ice going out on the Broads a few days ago.

You can watch this area of the lake change on the Echo Shores Webcam: http://echoshorescam.com/

[Mink Islander]

My lake cam took an unplanned vacation at the end of the year. But yesterday it surprised me by waking up and sending pics again.

Looks a long way from ice out from this view....

[chasedawg]

Originally Posted by Mink Islander

My lake cam took an unplanned vacation at the end of the year. But yesterday it surprised me by waking up and sending pics again.

Looks a long way from ice out from this view....

Agreed. Ice out is a long way off for the coves. Even the coves are not in Mt Washington's cruise there are important to those who would like to get to there properties in a early ice out.

For example, it was reported by local neighbors in 19 Mile Bay that there is still 18" of ice. And what happens with the ice when a major Northeaster dumps 2' of snow. I would expect it would be very difficult to snowmobile or even walk on the ice with water and slush below the snow. Our prediction for Ice out at 19 mile bay will be later than April 5th Reporting from Sarasota Florida.

[ishoot308]

Broads and all around Welch are actually starting to refreeze over the past couple cold days. I think at this point a March ice out probably will not happen...

Dan

[flyguy]

We shot a bunch yesterday (3/13/17) that will surprise you! Ice-Out.com

[Island Girl]

Thanks, Bill for the aerials. Definitely confirms what I saw happening yesterday. I have a time lapse that I need to upload which shows lots of icebergs float by my house, then it all jammed up.

Pretty cool!

IG

[welch-time]

The ice is locked in between Welch and Fish (NW side). Open water farther North.
My lakeside camera is working again after being "reset" by the power outage yesterday.
It's been AWOL since December. Really nice having it back (camera date and time is wrong).

[Island Girl]

That looks like Stan's dock.

[Island Girl]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Thanks, Bill for the aerials. Definitely confirms what I saw happening yesterday. I have a time lapse that I need to upload which shows lots of icebergs float by my house, then it all jammed up.

Pretty cool!

IG

Here is a timelapse on Monday the 13th of the ice going back in. Compare with flyguy's aerial and you will see how that happened. If you go to flyguys site for more pictures you will find one that shows more of the lake and the ice all piled up in a line past Rattlesnake Island.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/IceBackIn3-13-2017.mp4

www.rattlesnakecam.com/3-13-2017-IceBackIn.mp4 (faster version)

[welch-time]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

That looks like Stan's dock.

It is. We I bought this camp last year (my wifes family owns the camp 4 houses down).
Sadly Stan passed a couple months ago.

[Island Girl]

I am so sorry to hear about Stan. My late husband and I stayed at that camp in 1999 and 2000 before buying the place on Rattlesnake Island. Stan introduced us to the island in 1998. I met Stan in 1986. Great guy.

IG

[welch-time]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

I am so sorry to hear about Stan. My late husband and I stayed at that camp in 1999 and 2000 before buying the place on Rattlesnake Island. Stan introduced us to the island in 1998. I met Stan in 1986. Great guy.

IG

Yes he was. I always enjoyed his sense of humor. My wife introduced me to the island back in the 80's. She shared many a summer with Stan's daughters.

[phoenix]

will likely move ice out into April

[Bayview Girl]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

The wind for the past few days has really been brutal! I have been watching these giant ice sheets go flying across the broads on a daily basis. These ice chunks have to end up somewhere. I hope everyone's docks downwind don't get too beat up!



Dan

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[RUGMAN]

my view from Methodist cihttps://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=12813&stc=1&d=1489838176rcle.

[MDoug]

Anyone hazard a new guess at ice-out ?

The last cold snap seems to have locked up the lake again.

[COW ISL TIME]

No changes this week

[Prestige Worldwide]

The Broads have skimmed over again.


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[Merrymeeting]

Based on the current forecast, it's looking to me like it will be a fairly "normal" ice-out. I.e., early to mid-April, slow and steady.

Solar gain at this time of year is strong, and temps during the days are usually above freezing. But the nights still drop into the 20's. So you get some melting during the day, and some cool down at night. But the water temp continues to slowly rise, and when it reaches 38-39, the melting from below takes over and it all breaks up.

Baring a drastic change in the weather pattern, about 3 more weeks.

[MikeF-NH]

I've noticed we no longer have any cams in Alton Bay (one of the first areas to break up) and the Pine Island cams (which showed ice breaking up a few weeks back) all seem to be either off line, redirected or no longer on this site. Does anybody have any cams or recent pictures from these areas?

We had so much open water on the Broads and that seemed to slip back into winter with another ice coating. Hoping for warmer weather, rain and wind....

[MAXUM]

Power is out on the north end of Bear so the bear cam is not working at the moment. That was a good vantage point that won't be back till power is restored. NHEC won't send guys out over the ice in it's current condition. I'm sure they will be out there soon as the ice is out.

[Blue Thunder]

Originally Posted by MikeF-NH

I've noticed we no longer have any cams in Alton Bay (one of the first areas to break up) and the Pine Island cams (which showed ice breaking up a few weeks back) all seem to be either off line, redirected or no longer on this site. Does anybody have any cams or recent pictures from these areas?

We had so much open water on the Broads and that seemed to slip back into winter with another ice coating. Hoping for warmer weather, rain and wind....

This is the view from space as of Saturday. Quite a bit of difference from 2 weeks ago...in the wrong direction!

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

This is the view from space as of Saturday. Quite a bit of difference from 2 weeks ago...in the wrong direction!

One thing about that photo...the area in the broads that looks like open water is actually black ice which formed after the big snowstorm. The lake is almost completely frozen over at the moment....

Dan

[Mink Islander]

From Yesterday. Mount Washington very white in the distance.

[Pine Island Guy]

Originally Posted by MikeF-NH

I've noticed we no longer have any cams in Alton Bay (one of the first areas to break up) and the Pine Island cams (which showed ice breaking up a few weeks back) all seem to be either off line, redirected or no longer on this site. Does anybody have any cams or recent pictures from these areas?

We had so much open water on the Broads and that seemed to slip back into winter with another ice coating. Hoping for warmer weather, rain and wind....

Unfortunately my webcam that posts to the website every minute slipped off the perch I put it on to watch ice-out... but here's a shot looking down the Bear/Pine channel from this morning... what was water a week ago is now ice...

Happy first day of spring, let the melting proceed! -PIG

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Pine Island Guy

Unfortunately my webcam that posts to the website every minute slipped off the perch I put it on to watch ice-out... but here's a shot looking down the Bear/Pine channel from this morning... what was water a week ago is now ice...

Happy first day of spring, let the melting proceed! -PIG

Awh man that's depressing to look at!

[Island Girl]

This is one scary ice ridge. I have never seen anything quite like this. Melt please!

[flyguy]

Help fund more Ice-Out aerial photos this year!

Thanks

[Wolfe-man]

Happy to help flyguy! Thanks for your time and all the great ice-out photos.

[flyguy]

Originally Posted by Wolfe-man

Happy to help flyguy! Thanks for your time and all the great ice-out photos.

Thanks Mike! We never even break even on this series of photos, so any little bit helps to pay for fuel, insurance, web site,etc.! I sincerely appreciate your donation. Stay tuned!

[welch-time]

Strong wind pushing ice out from between Welch and Fish this morning, getting swept out into the Broads.
I expect it to be clear up to the breakwater by noon.



some video here:
https://youtu.be/NBxBFCNGqS4

[Mink Islander]

This is looking north with the tip of Bear on the left. The wind hasn't had any impact on the ice here.

[ishoot308]

The wind opened up the broads quite a bit today. That's Welch island on the left....

[welch-time]

And just like that...

[JMR]

I took this shot last yesterday afternoon from the top of Gunstock. Broads re-opening and, although I didn't take a picture of it, there appears to be a hole opening south end of Rattlesnake Island.

[WJT2]

Lily Pond usually goes out about a week ahead of Winnie. Anyone know the status there? Great pictures and video's. Keep them coming.
Thanks
WJT2

[upthesaukee]

Just went by Lily Pond. Still ice covered.

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[chipj29]

I guess my ice out prediction of March 24 is toast.

[8gv]

Originally Posted by chipj29

I guess my ice out prediction of March 24 is toast.

It could happen, though what is required to make it happen would be pretty bad.

[SIKSUKR]

Originally Posted by 8gv

It could happen, though what is required to make it happen would be pretty bad.

Like this?

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by chipj29

I guess my ice out prediction of March 24 is toast.

Don't feel too bad, chipj29 I guessed earlier!

[smith point boater]

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[smith point boater]

I think it's gonna be awhile



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[Wiezy]

Here's a photo from 380 feet in the air from above Rattlesnake toward Diamond and Welch at 12:30pm today (Saturday March 25th). Sorry for the water on the lens, it started sprinkling once I was out. I see what looks like open water by Welch.

[MDoug]

Originally Posted by Wiezy

Here's a photo from 380 feet in the air from above Rattlesnake toward Diamond and Welch at 12:30pm today (Saturday March 25th). Sorry for the water on the lens, it started sprinkling once I was out. I see what looks like open water by Welch.

How did you get to Rattlesnake?

[Wiezy]

Originally Posted by MDoug

How did you get to Rattlesnake?

Hey Doug, I flew my DJI Phantom 3 Pro (3 mile range) from the Rattlesnake launch (Glidden Cove) over to Rattlesnake and got the photo from there. I wanted to see how the broads were over there, lots of big cracks but not much open water there!

[MDoug]

That's just awesome!

[JMR]

I didn't take a photo yesterday, but the Broads were open north of Rattlesnake as of about 1 PM. some cracking around the peninsula on the island. We'll see what today brings.

[Pine Island Guy]

Unfortunately not much change from our vantage point...

Need Sun, Warm, and Wind -PIG

[upthesaukee]

Tear up your March ice-out guesses; Lily Pond in Gilford is still iced in. 😁

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[MDoug]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

Tear up your March ice-out guesses; Lily Pond in Gilford is still iced in. 😁

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I just changed my reservation with JetBlue to May 13 from April 29. I hope that will give NHEC enough time to restore power to Bear Island and our camp.

[flyguy]

We flew Ice Patrol again today- no matter what it looks like from the shore, there is still a LOT of ice- and much of it where it re-froze. We'll have a full report as well as many new photos on our Ice-Out.com site by the weekend.

Also had fun doing a Facebook LIVE video broadcast from the plane! Pretty sure that's never been done before. While it did not come out great, it showed that there may be the possibility of a LIVE Ice-Out announcement when it happens!

[/IMG]

[CAVU]

watching WGME, forecast is for 10-16" Fri-Sat, that should insulate the snow pack nicely.

[upthesaukee]

NWS shows 6-8 inches for Laconia.

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[MDoug]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

NWS shows 6-8 inches for Laconia.

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Will that hinder ice out more?

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by MDoug

Will that hinder ice out more?

I doubt it. The next week is going to be in the 40s every day with some rain. As the snow on top melts it's just going to drop more water on top of the ice. The top will get slushy, it probably won't be cold long enough for it to add more frozen surface to the top.

We do have some wind coming with the storm. That will also get stuff moving. We have a few weeks to go with or without the storm.

[ishoot308]

Here's a quick 30 second clip looking from the west side of Welch. As you can see everything still locked up tight all the way to Belknap Point, Lockes Island, Witches, Governors Island, Timber Island, Round Island. There are still people ice fishing Sanders Bay!

Going to be a while yet!

https://video.nest.com/clip/0cb5eb43...f1e62b35c3.mp4

Dan

[flyguy]

Three dozen new aerial photos - taken yesterday- just posted to http://www.ice-out.com. Much of the lake that had thawed refroze over the last two weeks. Coves & harbors are still solid. Looking like the third week in April???