Lyons Den

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by thebix

The 94 million unemployed is basically 'fake news', as it includes mostly people that are not expected to be in the real workforce, such as students, retirees, and stay at home parents taking care of children.

As checked by Politfact
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...ress-congress/
"Losing labor
Trump said that 94 million Americans are out of the labor force. That number is gleaned from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but it's misleading.

The 94 million figure includes any American age 16 and over who isn’t institutionalized and who isn’t either working or actively looking for work. In other words, the figure includes a lot of people who wouldn’t be expected to be working, or who are engaged in other worthy pursuits.

For instance, the figure includes retirees, high school students over 16, undergraduate and graduate students, stay-at-home parents, disabled people, adults who are engaged in full-time education or training, and even trust-fund kids and those wealthy enough to be living off investments. Put it all together and this is not a trivial group of people.

We have previously estimated that only about a quarter of the approximately 90 million people officially listed as being out of the labor force are either out of work, looking for a job, or eager to get back in the job hunt if labor-market conditions were to improve. The other three-quarters have a good reason for being out of the labor force, which means that Trump’s figure is misleadingly high."

Agreed that 94 million is not right. Here's a better estimate, IMO.
The population is 325 million and Labor Participation Rate is around 63%, 205 million working. The LPR previous to 2008 was around 66% which would have had 215 million working. About 10 million less people are engaged in the workforce than would have been.

The Participation Rate cuts across all segments of the population and incorporates all conditions, like able to work but not for a good reason. Those conditions, while varied, are not usually subject to rapid changes. For example, the number of college students not working for good reason is unlikely to surge enormously over the time period.

The loss in labor participation is likely due to poor/tight economic conditions.

As an aside, also consider that 10,000,000 * $40,000 average salary = $400,000,000,000,000 ($400 billion) in forsaken income. Since salary is only a part of actual economic earnings (the company makes more on your labor than they pay you) and earnings spin off other economic activity (if you work you can afford to buy more thereby paying other people) the economic value lost could easily exceed $1 trillion.

NH population is (1.33 million/325 million US) x 10,000,000 = about 41,000 potential NH workers NOT working.

Now what the NH restaurant proportion and specifically the Lyon's Den allotment of the 41,000 people might be is anyone's guess.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by jeffk

Agreed that 94 million is not right. Here's a better estimate, IMO.
The population is 325 million and Labor Participation Rate is around 63%, 205 million working. The LPR previous to 2008 was around 66% which would have had 215 million working. About 10 million less people are engaged in the workforce than would have been.

The Participation Rate cuts across all segments of the population and incorporates all conditions, like able to work but not for a good reason. Those conditions, while varied, are not usually subject to rapid changes. For example, the number of college students not working for good reason is unlikely to surge enormously over the time period.

The loss in labor participation is likely due to poor/tight economic conditions.

As an aside, also consider that 10,000,000 * $40,000 average salary = $400,000,000,000,000 ($400 billion) in forsaken income. Since salary is only a part of actual economic earnings (the company makes more on your labor than they pay you) and earnings spin off other economic activity (if you work you can afford to buy more thereby paying other people) the economic value lost could easily exceed $1 trillion.

NH population is (1.33 million/325 million US) x 10,000,000 = about 41,000 potential NH workers NOT working.

Now what the NH restaurant proportion and specifically the Lyon's Den allotment of the 41,000 people might be is anyone's guess.

Does your decrease in LPR include the large population of baby boomers that have moved to retirement? I gotta think the size of that generation leaving the workforce would easily affect percentages over a decade?

Sent from my XT1528 using Tapatalk

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Does your decrease in LPR include the large population of baby boomers that have moved to retirement? I gotta think the size of that generation leaving the workforce would easily affect percentages over a decade?

Sent from my XT1528 using Tapatalk

At the serious risk of hijacking this thread, it's not that simple.

A baby boom is an increase in birth RATE. From Wikipedia, 1945 - 1961, 65 million born, about 4 million per year.

While the birth RATE is lower now, the population base is higher. In 2015 (latest full data I found) about 4 million were born. For a rough reckoning, the replacement numbers entering the labor force are about equal to retirees, even for the boomer crowd.

Of course it is far more complex. WHEN do baby boomers retire, age 53 (I did), 60? 75? WHEN exactly do current workers enter the workforce, age 18 (high school)?, 22 (4 yr college)?, 26 (masters)?, 30+ (PhD)?, 40 (when mommy kicks them out of the basement)?

However, average yearly discrepancies are more likely to be in terms of maybe 100,000 or so in pure body count, not millions. Further, as population grows, unless there is a dearth in the birth rate, the number of new births will continue to increase and balance out retirees. It's actually a bit of a Ponzi scheme as long as reasonable amounts of kids are born. I saw one projection for the end of the baby boom retirees around 2030 to have a 4.2 million births in a population of 359 million. The numbers only increase from there.

Replacements are on the way, get your orders in now.

[Eric Weiss]

Restaurants have been suffering labor shortages for quite some time and it has been increasingly worse over the last 3 years. Perhaps 1 solution would be for the government to stop paying out such a high rate of benefits. Why take a 25K job working a 40hr week when the government is paying 30k to sit on one's backside?

[BroadHopper]

http://www.wmur.com/article/hampton-...talled/9964649

Even local resorts such as Naswa, Steele Hill, Wolfeboro Inn etc. have relied on the visa program to fulfill staffing needs.

I was told Trump is reviewing the high tech visa program as high tech firms are feeling the pinch!

[Billy Bob]

I find that when I have problems hiring and getting people to apply increasing the salary cures the issue .
The places paying the most money wii get the best people and be open for the season .
All these other excuses are interesting but won't get the shop open

[Mr. V]

Question: do the high schools in the lakes region offer vocational prep courses which would prepare graduates to enter the hopitality industry, which is the life's blood of the lakes region?

I'm thinking of courses such as learning to be a chef / chef's helper or waiter, for example.

We have them out here and they are very popular and productive.

[GBGX2]

Originally Posted by Mr. V

Question: do the high schools in the lakes region offer vocational prep courses which would prepare graduates to enter the hopitality industry, which is the life's blood of the lakes region?

I'm thinking of courses such as learning to be a chef / chef's helper or waiter, for example.

We have them out here and they are very popular and productive.

They do..... here is a list:

https://www.education.nh.gov/career/...ospitality.htm

[baygo]

Originally Posted by Mr. V

Question: do the high schools in the lakes region offer vocational prep courses which would prepare graduates to enter the hopitality industry, which is the life's blood of the lakes region?

I'm thinking of courses such as learning to be a chef / chef's helper or waiter, for example.

We have them out here and they are very popular and productive.

My early knowledge in this field is the result of such a program and I once thought it was a viable recruiting ground. Now I'm finding that many who come through that channel are racing away from the industry once they get on the job and become enlightened to some job associated realities. They have to work when their friends are playing and none of the fun things to do are scheduled on their day off. They are also finding it difficult to be resilient to the comments made by "that customer" on the internet. I recently had a young lady who was doing a great job, then "that customer" with out a reservation, trashed her on social median for not being able to seat them. She came to me crying and said this was the wrong business for her.

I'm fully staffed (knock on wood) but know many others who are considering modifying their schedules or closing portions of their dining room to deal with this problem.

This problem will have an bigger impact on new ventures as the experienced job seaker tends to feel more comfortable with an established restaurant.

[Mr. V]

Hire Hispanics.

They work hard, very hard.

Much of the restaurants out here have Hispanic chefs; the local teriyaki place we go to does, and that is typical.

Now, I realize that the lakes region isn't exactly overrun with folks from south of the border, but with some thought, effort and investment that could change.

[baygo]

Originally Posted by Billy Bob

I find that when I have problems hiring and getting people to apply increasing the salary cures the issue .
The places paying the most money wii get the best people and be open for the season .
All these other excuses are interesting but won't get the shop open

I issued 2 W2 forms of $62k last year. During the time that those two employees were hired, I had a number of other applicants who for one reason or another didn't last a week. Two of the most memorable reasons : A female applicant in her late 20s came to me after two days and said that she could not work any longer because if she continued to earn this kind of money she would lose her supplemented daycare. The other was a very hard-working 19-year-old male who came to me after his first paycheck and told me that his parents asked him to quit because his significant added income jeopardized their section 8 housing.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by baygo

I issued 2 W2 forms of $62k last year. During the time that those two employees were hired, I had a number of other applicants who for one reason or another didn't last a week. Two of the most memorable reasons : A female applicant in her late 20s came to me after two days and said that she could not work any longer because if she continued to earn this kind of money she would lose her supplemented daycare. The other was a very hard-working 19-year-old male who came to me after his first paycheck and told me that his parents asked him to quit because his significant added income jeopardized their section 8 housing.

I completely believe you. However, this is one of the reasons why our taxes are so high. People do not want to earn money and risk their government hand-out. The government is very good at giving away our money to people that have another path.

I have no problem with people that really need the money.

R2B

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

I completely believe you. However, this is one of the reasons why our taxes are so high. People do not want to earn money and risk their government hand-out. The government is very good at giving away our money to people that have another path.

I have no problem with people that really need the money.

R2B

The system needs to make it illogical to give up a job because it would end up costing you more. I was on unemployment for a couple of weeks before taking a job in retail. I made more on unemployment, and regreted not waiting a little longer before pulling the trigger on a job.

[jeffk]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

The system needs to make it illogical to give up a job because it would end up costing you more. I was on unemployment for a couple of weeks before taking a job in retail. I made more on unemployment, and regreted not waiting a little longer before pulling the trigger on a job.

I agree. I think some sort of limited transitional support should be considered. Many jobs offer a raise after 6 months of good work. Government assistance could make up the difference between a full time job and what they were getting from the government for up to a year (?) or whenever their earnings match their previous government support.

On the other hand, previous policy experience is that when support is terminated, most people manage to find work and in the end are better off. Assistance should be temporary, not a way of life and excuse not to work. Sadly compassionate support of those without a job can prevent them from getting the job experiences and work skills they need (showing up on time, proper grooming, good attitude, etc).

[Greene's Basin Girl]

Our son graduated from Moultonborough Academy in 2006. He worked locally during the summer while he was in college. After college he has worked out of state. Many of his classmates after graduating college have also left the state or they are working in Southern NH. After growing up in a rural area they seem to want to live in a more urban area. After they retire maybe they will return to the Lakes Region.

[Descant]

I see some confusion here. Summer jobs for students are different in my mind from career jobs that are year seasonal or round and when these folks are laid off some benefits might apply. But a student going back to school in the fall should be a different category. Our current system encourages foreign students to come to work in the summer because they can work until mid September. U.S. students quit in mid-August so they can go play sports. OK, I get it, but most of them will not get big scholarships and will not play professionally. They could get a great recommendation from a summer employer for a later job. Or they can get a letter that says "left unexpectedly".
I'd be happy for mid-August sports if other classes also had "extra time" in August for Physics, History, etc.

[bumble71]

Originally Posted by Greene's Basin Girl

Our son graduated from Moultonborough Academy in 2006. He worked locally during the summer while he was in college. After college he has worked out of state. Many of his classmates after graduating college have also left the state or they are working in Southern NH. After growing up in a rural area they seem to want to live in a more urban area. After they retire maybe they will return to the Lakes Region.

Aggree!


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[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Billy Bob

I find that when I have problems hiring and getting people to apply increasing the salary cures the issue .
The places paying the most money wii get the best people and be open for the season .
All these other excuses are interesting but won't get the shop open

My business is a "drug free workplace". We are required to do pre-employment drug screening. 8 out of 10 applicants fail this test. Most applicants are under the age of 30 years.... another interesting excuse?....

Dan