2018 Ice Out Progress

ishoot308 · 03-29-2018, 08:15 AM

Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th...

With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely!

Dan

joey2665 · 03-29-2018, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th...

With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely!

Dan

Dan you have this down to a science.

8gv · 03-29-2018, 09:31 AM

This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future.

When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office.

To clarify my position on that...

If nominated, I will not run.

If elected, I will not serve.

If re-elected, I will again, not serve.

Think I nailed it!

Outdoorsman · 04-01-2018, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 8gv

This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future.

When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office.

To clarify my position on that...

If nominated, I will not run.

If elected, I will not serve.

If re-elected, I will again, not serve.

Think I nailed it!

Before I can decide to NOT vote for you, I will need to know your position on a few more pressing issues.
......

Where do you stand on using noodles as a life saving device for snowmobilers

How often do you use a noodle as a rowing vessel

What is your position on using Emergency (specifically fire rescue) boats as a pickle ball court

How far do you drive for free coffee, internet or toilet paper

Can you build a M/S Mt. Washington II for under $6.00

........
As it stands right now, I am writing you in

8gv · 04-01-2018, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Outdoorsman

Before I can decide to NOT vote for you, I will need to know your position on a few more pressing issues.
......

Where do you stand on using noodles as a life saving device for snowmobilers

How often do you use a noodle as a rowing vessel

What is your position on using Emergency (specifically fire rescue) boats as a pickle ball court

How far do you drive for free coffee, internet or toilet paper

Can you build a M/S Mt. Washington II for under $6.00

........
As it stands right now, I am writing you in

I have decided to skip tonight’s $1,000/plate campaign fundraiser in my honor.

I do think I may have nailed ice out though...

Top-Water · 04-01-2018, 10:16 PM

NH Boat Museum Hosts 2018 Ice-Out Celebration

http://newenglandboating.com/nh-boat...t-celebration/

sum-r breeze · 04-02-2018, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Top-Water

NH Boat Museum Hosts 2018 Ice-Out Celebration

http://newenglandboating.com/nh-boat...t-celebration/

Do you think they know something we don't? Maybe they have some inside information from the weather gods? Inquiring minds woul love to know...

The Breeze
Wave 'cuz I'll be wavin' back

ishoot308 · 04-02-2018, 06:38 PM

Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two!

Wont be long!

Dan

Hillcountry · 04-02-2018, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two!

Wont be long!

Dan

April 15th was my guess...hope it’s sooner though...

Descant · 04-02-2018, 10:01 PM

What about CrystlLake in Gilmanon? That is supposed to be a 10 day warning.
We really need a list of lakes and ice out dates for the last 50(?) years. Of course, if it gets too scientific, it loses the magic. No surprise that the Old Farmer's Almanac can predict weather but not ice out.
My grandfather used to race horses on Lake Champlain ice. Do they go through this agony every spring too?

ishoot308 · 04-04-2018, 07:56 AM

Went by Lily Pond this morning and about 1/3rd of the pond still has ice on the north side. Should be all gone by Friday...

Dan

MikeF-NH · 04-04-2018, 09:36 AM

the rain has ice in many cams looking very dark gray. I am certain many areas still have over a foot of ice but the color is similar to what it looks like when we begin to see cracks or openings in the ice. Shoreline ice also appears to be receding very nicely at Weirs and West Alton.

Has anyone been by Alton Bay recently? Is the ice receded to past the gazebo yet? How far is it out at that location?

Eyeboat · 04-04-2018, 09:46 AM

I believe my guess was the 16th. Gonna be close.

Chaos · 04-04-2018, 05:02 PM

is clear from the bandstand to the bridge. I drove by this AM.

Hillcountry · 04-04-2018, 05:12 PM

Some brisk winds predicted which will help break up things!

Top-Water · 04-04-2018, 07:24 PM

Thanks everyone for the reports and photos.

Looks like it won't be that much longer.

As mentioned previously, the wind might put a big dent in it tonight.

8gv · 04-04-2018, 08:46 PM

I have been searching for the link to all the ice out guesses with no luck.

Can somebody please post it?

Thanks!

ishoot308 · 03-29-2018, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joey2665

Dan you have this down to a science.

Before moving to Gilford a number of years ago, I lived in Chester and had to ride around Massabesic Lake every day to get to work. Being ever so anxious to get out on the island, I started counting the days from when I could see no ice whatsoever on Massy to when ice out was declared on Winni. It was 14 days like a watch almost every year.

Edited to add these pics I just took from Claire's landing at Massabesic. While the Manchester side of the Lake is wide open, the Auburn side still has some ice. Probably about 4 days worth left... Ice out on Winni will be the week of April 16th...

Dan

MAXUM · 03-29-2018, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.

My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th...

With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely!

Dan

Massabesic is a pretty accurate 2 week indicator for the big lake. I agree somewhere around the third week of April is what it's looking like. However I have the first sign spring has arrived. From the wife's garden.

ishoot308 · 03-29-2018, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAXUM

However I have the first sign spring has arrived. From the wife's garden.

There is hope!!!

MAXUM · 03-29-2018, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

There is hope!!!

I know it - first flower of the season means time to pull the commuter boat out of the back yard and get it fired up this weekend.

I still haven't gotten my '18 boat registrations back in the mail.

Hillcountry · 03-29-2018, 04:44 PM

Can’t wait!!

ishoot308 · 03-30-2018, 08:32 AM

The edges of Lily Pond were just starting to give yesterday afternoon.

Dan

WINNIPESAUKEEBOB · 03-30-2018, 10:40 AM

Plenty of fog this morning on Winni. Temp at 42 and climbing. . Fog loves to "CHEW" on ice....I see lots of "CHUNK" ice breaking away at Weirs Beach area and foating down the Paugus Bay chanel near Thurston's Marina.

pault842 · 03-30-2018, 11:41 AM

Solid ice here on Alton Bay with just a little open water around some docks. Sleds still out running over the bay 2 nights ago and again today

. I guess someone knows the thin spots real well or perhaps they like to live dangerously.

joey2665 · 03-30-2018, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pault842

Solid ice here on Alton Bay with just a little open water around some docks. Sleds still out running over the bay 2 nights ago and again today

. I guess someone knows the thin spots real well or perhaps they like to live dangerously.

Stupidity at its best. Is it really worth it if you end up going through the ice. I just do not understand people sometimes.

Bootkie2 · 03-30-2018, 01:12 PM

Why wait for Ice Out? Apparently someone has a really bad case of Spring fever.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bg7IW2AnoKX/

kawishiwi · 03-30-2018, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ishoot308

The edges of Lily Pond were just starting to give yesterday afternoon.

Dan

Speak to us about what that means for ice out oh great Ice-trodamus!

ishoot308 · 03-30-2018, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kawishiwi

Speak to us about what that means for ice out oh great Ice-trodamus!

Well, it means Lily is finally starting to melt and when the ice is off Lily Pond we usually have one week to go on Winni...

codeman671 · 03-30-2018, 05:03 PM

Sounds like a possible truck through the ice near Mark Island. Unreal.

MikeF-NH · 03-30-2018, 05:25 PM

I thought the truck that went through the ice in that area happened several weeks ago. Anyone with a truck on this ice at this point is trying to prove Darwin was right!

Ice has gotten awefully gray on many cams. While I down doubt there is still over a foot of ice in many spots I am betting the integrity of that ice is degrading quickly. Also see a few open fissures on Bear Cam toward Pine and possibly a fissure forming from an old pressure ridge from the camera pointed at Sheps. Rain should speed things even with the temps not helping much the next week or so. Picking up boat next week in hopes of being able to splash her on the 13th....yep Friday the thirteenth.

codeman671 · 03-30-2018, 05:36 PM

Reports are that this is a new one. Airboat from tuftonboro is on the way. It's is on facebook. Gotta be true if it's on the internet!

fatlazyless · 03-30-2018, 09:23 PM

Say hey ..... I saw an air boat slowly going along the west side of Mark Island, on top of the ice, this evening at about 5:30 from a distance of about a mile away.

Was outside raking leaves, and heard the very loud, exhaust sound of a V8-engine with no muffler that goes with an airboat, so's I stopped raking to take a better look with the binoculars. It had some bright yellow panels in the area of the cage that encloses the front area of the large propeller in the stern of the vessel.

Thought ...... 'oh well' ...... and went back to raking the wet leaves .... gotta rake these old leaves!

On August 24, 2006, the Charlestown NH fire rescue inadvertently drowned 64-year old Virginia Cunningham, from Vermont, while transporting her on the Connecticut River in a flat bottom, air boat. Her injury requiring her to be transported was only an ankle injury, and she was drowned dead while secured in a stokes litter, in the bow of the rescue boat.

So's, how's about that ...... talk about a major boo-boo ...... whoopsie-doopsie ....... so sorry!

Whenever I hear the very loud exhaust of an air boat, I recall that 2006 drowning incident and think to myself, dang, that was not a happy ending for a rescue.

03-29-2018, 08:15 AM	#1
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,304 Thanks: 2,405 Thanked 5,308 Times in 2,069 Posts	Progress Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon. My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th... With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely! Dan __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

03-29-2018, 09:31 AM	#3
8gv Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 2,114 Thanks: 64 Thanked 749 Times in 483 Posts	This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future. When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office. To clarify my position on that... If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve. If re-elected, I will again, not serve. Think I nailed it! Last edited by 8gv; 03-29-2018 at 03:46 PM.

04-02-2018, 06:38 PM	#8
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,304 Thanks: 2,405 Thanked 5,308 Times in 2,069 Posts	Wow! Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two! Wont be long! Dan __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

04-04-2018, 07:56 AM	#11
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,304 Thanks: 2,405 Thanked 5,308 Times in 2,069 Posts	Lily Update Went by Lily Pond this morning and about 1/3rd of the pond still has ice on the north side. Should be all gone by Friday... Dan __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

04-04-2018, 09:46 AM	#13
Eyeboat Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 52 Thanks: 0 Thanked 2 Times in 2 Posts	Cattle Landing I believe my guess was the 16th. Gonna be close. Attached Images

04-01-2018, 10:16 PM	#6
Top-Water Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 674 Thanks: 1,535 Thanked 714 Times in 431 Posts	NH Boat Museum Hosts 2018 Ice-Out Celebration http://newenglandboating.com/nh-boat...t-celebration/

04-02-2018, 10:01 PM	#10
Descant Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Merrimack and Welch Island Posts: 4,407 Thanks: 1,362 Thanked 1,634 Times in 1,066 Posts	What about CrystlLake in Gilmanon? That is supposed to be a 10 day warning. We really need a list of lakes and ice out dates for the last 50(?) years. Of course, if it gets too scientific, it loses the magic. No surprise that the Old Farmer's Almanac can predict weather but not ice out. My grandfather used to race horses on Lake Champlain ice. Do they go through this agony every spring too?

04-04-2018, 09:36 AM	#12
MikeF-NH Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 318 Thanks: 2 Thanked 120 Times in 80 Posts	the rain has ice in many cams looking very dark gray. I am certain many areas still have over a foot of ice but the color is similar to what it looks like when we begin to see cracks or openings in the ice. Shoreline ice also appears to be receding very nicely at Weirs and West Alton. Has anyone been by Alton Bay recently? Is the ice receded to past the gazebo yet? How far is it out at that location?

04-04-2018, 05:02 PM	#14
Chaos Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Danville, NH and West Alton Marina Posts: 134 Thanks: 111 Thanked 32 Times in 20 Posts	Alton Bay is clear from the bandstand to the bridge. I drove by this AM. Attached Images

04-04-2018, 05:12 PM	#15
Hillcountry Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: In the hills Posts: 2,420 Thanks: 1,677 Thanked 786 Times in 466 Posts	Some brisk winds predicted which will help break up things!

04-04-2018, 07:24 PM	#16
Top-Water Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 674 Thanks: 1,535 Thanked 714 Times in 431 Posts	Thanks everyone for the reports and photos. Looks like it won't be that much longer. As mentioned previously, the wind might put a big dent in it tonight.

04-04-2018, 08:46 PM	#17
8gv Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 2,114 Thanks: 64 Thanked 749 Times in 483 Posts	I have been searching for the link to all the ice out guesses with no luck. Can somebody please post it? Thanks!

03-29-2018, 04:44 PM	#22
Hillcountry Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: In the hills Posts: 2,420 Thanks: 1,677 Thanked 786 Times in 466 Posts	Can’t wait!!

03-30-2018, 08:32 AM	#23
ishoot308 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Gilford, NH / Welch Island Posts: 6,304 Thanks: 2,405 Thanked 5,308 Times in 2,069 Posts	Lily Pond The edges of Lily Pond were just starting to give yesterday afternoon. Dan __________________ It's Always Sunny On Welch Island!!

03-30-2018, 10:40 AM	#24
WINNIPESAUKEEBOB Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: SOMERVILLE, MA & WEIRS BEACH Posts: 19 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Fog .....is chewing up the ice Plenty of fog this morning on Winni. Temp at 42 and climbing. . Fog loves to "CHEW" on ice....I see lots of "CHUNK" ice breaking away at Weirs Beach area and foating down the Paugus Bay chanel near Thurston's Marina.

03-30-2018, 11:41 AM	#25
pault842 Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: Alton Bay Posts: 14 Thanks: 24 Thanked 6 Times in 3 Posts	Solid ice here on Alton Bay with just a little open water around some docks. Sleds still out running over the bay 2 nights ago and again today. I guess someone knows the thin spots real well or perhaps they like to live dangerously.

03-30-2018, 01:12 PM	#27
Bootkie2 Member Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 34 Thanks: 1 Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts	Why wait for Ice Out? Apparently someone has a really bad case of Spring fever. https://www.instagram.com/p/Bg7IW2AnoKX/

03-30-2018, 05:03 PM	#30
codeman671 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,509 Thanks: 221 Thanked 818 Times in 491 Posts	Sounds like a possible truck through the ice near Mark Island. Unreal.

03-30-2018, 05:25 PM	#31
MikeF-NH Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 318 Thanks: 2 Thanked 120 Times in 80 Posts	I thought the truck that went through the ice in that area happened several weeks ago. Anyone with a truck on this ice at this point is trying to prove Darwin was right! Ice has gotten awefully gray on many cams. While I down doubt there is still over a foot of ice in many spots I am betting the integrity of that ice is degrading quickly. Also see a few open fissures on Bear Cam toward Pine and possibly a fissure forming from an old pressure ridge from the camera pointed at Sheps. Rain should speed things even with the temps not helping much the next week or so. Picking up boat next week in hopes of being able to splash her on the 13th....yep Friday the thirteenth.

03-30-2018, 05:36 PM	#32
codeman671 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,509 Thanks: 221 Thanked 818 Times in 491 Posts	Reports are that this is a new one. Airboat from tuftonboro is on the way. It's is on facebook. Gotta be true if it's on the internet!

03-30-2018, 09:23 PM	#33
fatlazyless Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8,789 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 300 Thanked 1,024 Times in 745 Posts	Say hey ..... I saw an air boat slowly going along the west side of Mark Island, on top of the ice, this evening at about 5:30 from a distance of about a mile away. Was outside raking leaves, and heard the very loud, exhaust sound of a V8-engine with no muffler that goes with an airboat, so's I stopped raking to take a better look with the binoculars. It had some bright yellow panels in the area of the cage that encloses the front area of the large propeller in the stern of the vessel. Thought ...... 'oh well' ...... and went back to raking the wet leaves .... gotta rake these old leaves! On August 24, 2006, the Charlestown NH fire rescue inadvertently drowned 64-year old Virginia Cunningham, from Vermont, while transporting her on the Connecticut River in a flat bottom, air boat. Her injury requiring her to be transported was only an ankle injury, and she was drowned dead while secured in a stokes litter, in the bow of the rescue boat. So's, how's about that ...... talk about a major boo-boo ...... whoopsie-doopsie ....... so sorry! Whenever I hear the very loud exhaust of an air boat, I recall that 2006 drowning incident and think to myself, dang, that was not a happy ending for a rescue. __________________ ... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake! Last edited by fatlazyless; 03-31-2018 at 08:34 AM.