2018 Ice Out Progress

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

That ice will take work. Also, that temp looks awfully high. I would check that validity of that.

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

[rsmlp]

Looks like 1-3" on Sunday. THEN it will be over...

[C-Bass]

Twenty mile bay is getting there..

[C-Bass]

Open water is pushing out from the twenty mile brook. Same at 19Mi bay. Been happening for the past few weeks.

[CoastalWx]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Well here is something that indicates it's not that far off.

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

[sum-r breeze]

From the gas dock at MVYC the ice is very gray and there are a couple of fishermen in a 12’Whaler fishing right at the edge of the ice. Those are some hardcore fishing enthusiasts!! Weather looks iffy but gonna try to get some wax on the “Breeze” Won’t be too long...The ice looks weak.

The Breeze
Wave ‘cuz I’ll be wavin’ back

[ishoot308]

The broads are basically slush. Should be breaking up tonight or tomorrow. A good wind would make things go quickly. Here’s a pic...FYI, that’s Welch Island on the left.

Dan

[ishoot308]

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

With the anticipated 40 mph wind and rain tomorrow, that should take care of a lot of ice!

And possibly a lot of the east facing docks.
Winds will be out of the E., then ENE.
For Paugus Bay that means South Down and Long Bay are in the cross hairs.

[jeffatsquam]

10 minutes and counting for my guess. Theres always next year.

[8gv]

So the ice will be off tomorrow as I have predicted but...

the weather will be inappropriate for flying so it will not be seen until a few days later.

[CoastalWx]

Going to be a little while. Today in the 20s, and should not be too windy tomorrow. The heavy rain will help, but it will take time to break it up.

[ishoot308]

Today's wind has definitely started things moving. The are now very large areas of cracked ice I can see between Welch and Ellacoya with water between them. The open water on the southern side of Welch has definitely extended as well!

Not sure I want to see the ice starting to go out with this crazy wind as I feel a lot of dock destruction would occur.

Dan

[SplendidSplinter9]

Has anyone seen the conditions at Silver Sands boat launch?

[Slickcraft]

After yesterday's strong wind I had expected to see the ice broken up between Belknap Point and Welch. Not so

The open water south of Welch has expanded a small amount and there is a bit of open off the west side of Welch. Other than that, ice ice ice crap.

[chasedawg]

curious...when was the latest ice out ever recorded? Just got back from spending the winter in Florida. Now getting out of here heading to the BVI's taking folks sailing. Hope when we come back May 1 the ice will be gone. Not sure after yesterday and seeing all the ice out there.

[daveschappell]

Looks like May 12, 1888!

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/index.php?pageid=iceout

[Eyeboat]

My boat is supposed to hit the water May 12th, maybe I should reschedule

[8gv]

Maybe we can redirect the panels from a local solar farm to reflect sunlight onto the ice.

That would melt it!

Wait, that requires sunshine...

nevermind!

[Merrymeeting]

It'll start going fast after this weekend. The forecast shows many sunny days with temps in the more seasonal/higher range. Most importantly, the temps will stay above freezing at night for several nights in a row.

[Old Sarge]

Originally Posted by Eyeboat

My boat is supposed to hit the water May 12th, maybe I should reschedule

I would think that you will be fine on May 12th (I am also getting my boat on the 12th-the day MVYC starts valet!). When you do hit the water , early in the year, you may want to keep a look-out for floating debris (ie logs, sticks and pieces of peoples docks etc.).

[8gv]

Last fall I told Irwin to splash my boat 4/15.

They know I have no place to put it until our mooring is in.

When the mooring is in place I can ask for my boat and they will have it ready in a day or two. Last year it was four hours after the call.

They have been very good to me.

[Eyeboat]

Originally Posted by Old Sarge

I would think that you will be fine on May 12th (I am also getting my boat on the 12th-the day MVYC starts valet!). When you do hit the water , early in the year, you may want to keep a look-out for floating debris (ie logs, sticks and pieces of peoples docks etc.).

Sage advice will keep a look out on the bow.

[depasseg]

Originally Posted by CoastalWx

That depends on how and where that thermometer is situated. Looks like a diurnal cycle too. Is it affected by melting ice now and sunlight hitting it? If so it may not be a true measurement. In any case melting will be more significant tomorrow. Big step back this weekend and then heavy rain Monday. Things should accelerate soon.

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

[AC2717]

love that view more than the others, no ice!!

[AC2717]

Do my eyes deceive me on the Anchor Marine cam, a boat and does not look like there is any ice in the bay?

can anyone in person confirm from Xmas island south to Lakeport if there is any ice?

i might be able to drop the lifts in

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by AC2717

Do my eyes deceive me on the Anchor Marine cam, a boat and does not look like there is any ice in the bay?

can anyone in person confirm from Xmas island south to Lakeport if there is any ice?

i might be able to drop the lifts in

Your eyes are deceiving you! Today’s Anchor cam shows the ice a bit further out but still present!

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by Hillcountry

Your eyes are deceiving you! Today’s Anchor cam shows the ice a bit further out but still present!

dam, an earlier photo was not as clear as that one. Good chance could be a non factor this weekend though

hahahaha look at me holding onto hope with a wing and a prayer

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by AC2717

dam, an earlier photo was not as clear as that one. Good chance could be a non factor this weekend though

hahahaha look at me holding onto hope with a wing and a prayer

Here's one from the other end...

[ishoot308]

In my best Scotty voice...”She’s breaking up Captain!!

Huge swaths of open water between Welch Island and Belknap Point! Many large open cracks in the broads. Won’t be long now. Dropping my boat in the water today!!Woo hoo! Pic below...

Dan

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

In my best Scotty voice...”She’s breaking up Captain!!

Huge swaths of open water between Welch Island and Belknap Point! Many large open cracks in the broads. Won’t be long now. Dropping my boat in the water today!!Woo hoo! Pic below...

Dan

Yes significant change from 2 days ago. We should be able to get to Welch by Sunday. Also looking out from Ames Farm a lot has opened toward Diamond and Rattlesnake.

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Here's one from the other end...

PBFF, what's up my man!!! Long time
I'll be on the Blueberry snagging bass out of your area before you know it.

How's it look today, think i can get away with putting the pwc and fishing boat lift in tomorrow afternoon without the ice beating them up?

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

Originally Posted by AC2717

PBFF, what's up my man!!! Long time
I'll be on the Blueberry snagging bass out of your area before you know it.

How's it look today, think i can get away with putting the pwc and fishing boat lift in tomorrow afternoon without the ice beating them up?

Hey Alex... Inch’pes yes!

It looks like rotting candle ice to me. Just not sure about the wind pushing it into your area. Winds out of the NW are not great for that part of Paugus.

It's always worth a shot and as you know conditions can change quickly this time of year. What is open area can get clogged with ice quickly.

I'll be bass fishing as soon as the lake warms a bit..50 degrees is always my magic number.

[PaugusBayFireFighter]

For anyone new to the lake during the thaw, I made this video to show what "candle ice" looks like. Pretty self explanatory as the ice looks like a bunch of candles when you take them out of the water.



https://youtu.be/X5u3nGRCDe4

[JMR]

A friend was just at Ames Farm and said it is open out to Diamond and possibly to the tip of Rattlesnake. We are planning to be on Rattlesnake no later than Sunday and possibly tomorrow. Echo Shores cam looks as if skim of ice from there to Sleeper

[Slickcraft]

The sheet of ice between Belknap Point and Welch was blown south mid morning; currently open out to Welch. I heard from a very reliable source that a boat is already over there.

There is still ice to the north and south of the route to Welch. We plan an early morning trip out tomorrow if moving ice does not close back in.

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

The sheet of ice between Belknap Point and Welch was blown south mid morning; currently open out to Welch. I heard from a very reliable source that a boat is already over there.

There is still ice to the north and south of the route to Welch. We plan an early morning trip out tomorrow if moving ice does not close back in.

There is no bad side here. If the ice comes back while you are out there, oh well... stranded in heaven .

Enjoy.

Dave

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

There is no bad side here. If the ice comes back while you are out there, oh well... stranded in heaven .



Enjoy.



Dave

Good point Dave. Checked the boat out this afternoon and we plan to go over in the morning.

Alan


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[Grady223]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

There is no bad side here. If the ice comes back while you are out there, oh well... stranded in heaven .



Enjoy.



Dave

Or crushed boat.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[tis]

That's what I was thinking, Grady!!

[MikeF-NH]

Looking forward to your report Dan. I thought I was an early season risk taker but you have definitely set the bar by getting out to Welch literally just as the ice opened a small path. I decided to wait one more day and get out Sunday. Less windy and another day for the ice to melt and blow out of areas I might launch.

[AC2717]

Originally Posted by PaugusBayFireFighter

Hey Alex... Inch’pes yes!

It looks like rotting candle ice to me. Just not sure about the wind pushing it into your area. Winds out of the NW are not great for that part of Paugus.

It's always worth a shot and as you know conditions can change quickly this time of year. What is open area can get clogged with ice quickly.

I'll be bass fishing as soon as the lake warms a bit..50 degrees is always my magic number.

thanks man, as long as it is candle ice I think the lifts would be fine out there, i was worried about if it was big sheets, boat and pwc wont go in for a few weeks, but this was really only other weekend to do it

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by depasseg

The probes are under the dock, so not directly affected by the sun. But that area is only 15 feet deep, so I think the bottom helps absorb the sun and warm up the water. If you notice, the water temp cycle goes up and down right around the 39 degree temp mark, which is where the warm water/cold water inversion occurs. My hypothesis is that the colder water from out beyond the no wake marker is inverting with the warmer water in the shallower area. If you look at the 3 month graph, you can see the last warm up in March really heated up the water to 40 degrees, but then it quickly went back down.

There is also a little bit of a "current" for lack of better description that is moving water through that area and under the LI bridge so that water isn't exactly stagnant.

Also it remains relatively shallow quite a distance out from the NWZ marker for at least another 300 yards it's still only 15 to 20 feet deep towards 5 mile IS and the entrance to Braun Bay. Even then it drops off pretty slow. The same is true on the opposite side of the LI Bridge, got to get beyond the little island and first black marker before the bottom starts to show any depth beyond 15 feet.