"Official" Ice Out Thread

[Pricestavern]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

I'm not a statistician but a cursory review of the data may not support the hypothesis that ice outs are occurring earlier. The difference in dates from awhile to now may not be "statistically significant".

Having said that, it is interesting. Thank you

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

[C-Bass]

Originally Posted by Pricestavern

Well, if you take April 26 as = 125 (number of days since Jan 1) and April 13 as 102, the difference is 13 days. That amounts to an 11.3% shortening in 131 years. I'm not a statistician either and I don't know how you'd determine statistical significance based on a single set of 131 years of data. But it feels like an 11 percent change is pretty significant. The cause? I'll let others debate that.

It would be interesting to try and superimpose 10 year avg low and high April temperatures (if you can find reliable temperature data back that far) to see if there is correlation, though maybe a combined March-April average would be a better view of temperature effect on melting. One could definitely get lost down this rabbit hole if they had the time.

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

I haven't heard of anyone putting "heaters" in the lake to keep ice away? Circulators/bubblers of course, but don't think anyone is trying to heat the lake water to keep ice away.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by C-Bass

The other thing I wonder is how much of an influence do the dock agitators and heaters that are put in the water; have on ice out. It seems when ice out starts, the open water around the docks is the first place of expansion, kind of giving it a jump start. I wonder if the lake was allowed to freeze to the shore what effect it would have.

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by joey2665

The amount of bubblers on the lake is extremely insignificant to the surface area of the lake as a whole and would have absolutely no effect on ice out. Remember ice out is determined by the Mounts ability to travel to its ports safely and completely reliable of the broads have no ice. Last I checked there are no bubblers in the broads and many other large open areas of water. lol

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by codeman671

Often times circulators are tied to thermostats and timers as well. Ours don't run unless the air temp is under 32 degrees, and only run for a set time per day if consistently under that. Ours have not run for quite a while because of temps, so it is doubtful that they would have an effect on the overall lake melt.

I absolutely agree. I hope the OP was joking.