Ice Out 2020 Guess Statistics

[Bear Guy]

A few graphs from the 2020 winnipesaukee.com Ice-Out contest, while we wait for the ice to melt.

[Bear Guy]

A history of average guesses, vs the official reported Ice Out. This shows you the 'wisdom of the crowd.'

[Pineedles]

Interestingly the guesses are overwhelmingly are early. Cabin fever influenced?


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[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

Interestingly the guesses are overwhelmingly are early. Cabin fever influenced?


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I think more the very mild winter and a little bit of optimism

[fatlazyless]

Between Monday and today, Wednesday, the number of large bob houses out there on Meredith Bay has disappeared, going from about 20 to zero. Every single bob house has been removed and all that's out there was a few pieces of lumber debris, stuck in the ice, as of late yesterday. Seems like yesterday's 50-degree weather prediction plus the gray ice has shooed everyone off the Meredith Bay ice.

Seems like the Meredith Bay ice changed colors, going from white to gray, while the ice out by Mark Island is still white ice.

The ice probably goes gray with the inflow of water into the softer ice crystals. At ten degrees, ice is strong and springy flexible like steel ...... at warmer 32+ temps, it turns into wet icy, gray slush.

[MAXUM]

Having been out on the ice as much as I have in years past, judging by what I saw this past weekend which was my last trip out on the ice, I don't see it lasting beyond the end of the month.

We shall see.... but I think my guess of Mar 30th is going to be to late.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Having been out on the ice as much as I have in years past, judging by what I saw this past weekend which was my last trip out on the ice, I don't see it lasting beyond the end of the month.

We shall see.... but I think my guess of Mar 30th is going to be to late.

I think you are correct Maxum! My guess is March 31st but with these mild temps and rain in the forecast I too think it may be earlier... The snowmobile is winterized and I plan on getting my fishing boat out of storage very soon!

I still think I will be fishing April 1st!

Fingers crossed!

Dan

[Pineedles]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I think more the very mild winter and a little bit of optimism

I wasn’t speaking of this year, but rather a majority of the years that guesses are made, overwhelmingly early. Optimistic guesses, wishing for the warmer weather.


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[fatlazyless]

Someone like Top Water or someone, correct me if this is not the case, here.

Fishing Lake Winnipesaukee through natural openings in the ice:

No fishing for trout through any natural openings in the ice before April 1.

Fishing for small mouth bass and sun fish though natural openings in the ice is allowed before April 1, except these fish go dormant in the cold water, basically hibernate, and are not looking for anything to eat, making it a waste of time to go fishing for bass before April 1 ..... and more like before May 1.

The #1 best place to go open water fishing for trout before April 1 is in the Winnipesaukee River in Laconia which has different rules because it is a river and not a lake. A super-duper hot spot is fly fishing the Winni River from the lower parking lot behind the Laconia Walgreens.

[Descant]

I have a feeling that thje further south you live, the earlier you think ice out will occur. You just can't walk around in balmy NJ or NY, RI, CT weather and think there is still ice when all the lakes around you have been clear for weeks.

[Fishinfergy]

Is the lake currently open anywhere?

[Bear Guy]

Originally Posted by Pineedles

... a majority of the years that guesses are made, overwhelmingly early. ....

If you look at the data this way, I'd actually say equal number of average guesses are before declared Ice out as there are after.

[Hillcountry]

Southern NH ponds (Cobbett’s in Windham) and others was said to be opening up earlier this week...I can’t verify, just what I see online.

[MAXUM]

Taken 3 weeks from now

[ishoot308]

Does anyone know if Massabesic Lake in Manchester is open yet?...That has always been my reliable “two weeks to go” indicator....

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Top-Water

If it was still light out I would go ............ and make an an excuse up to go to bass pro shops at the same time.

Kind a my 2 week warning as well.

I’ll be back in town on Tuesday and will check it out!

Dan

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

I’ll be back in town on Tuesday and will check it out!

Dan

I'll try to take a detour over there tomorrow morning and have a look on my way to work. Yes it's usually a two week tattle tail.

[WJT2]

What are the ice conditions on Lily Pond in Gilford?

[Pineedles]

I don’t know what happened but my first guess disappeared so I submitted a new one. It appeared, now it’s gone?


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[ishoot308]

Viewing my cameras remotely, it clearly shows the area between Ellacoya and Welch Island starting to crack open! While not a great pic, here it is...

Dan

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Does anyone know if Massabesic Lake in Manchester is open yet?...That has always been my reliable “two weeks to go” indicator....

Someone on an ice fishing forum said it was "looking very sketchy"
That was yesterday...

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by WJT2

What are the ice conditions on Lily Pond in Gilford?

Was solid looking from rte 11 getting on to the bypass westbound. I'll be eastbound on the bypass in a couple of hours and will get a better look.

Dave

[rander7823]

So what happened in 2010? The average and the actuals were quite far apart and actual was very early

[webmaster]

For me the interesting year was 2001 when Ice-Out wasn't called until May 2nd. As the ice broke up that year the NW wind pushed it all to the mouth of Wolfeboro bay where it stacked up, preventing the Mount from reaching that port. The rest of the lake was completely clear a week or two before Ice-Out and many boats were out on the lake way before the official Ice-Out call, including me!

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

I'll try to take a detour over there tomorrow morning and have a look on my way to work. Yes it's usually a two week tattle tail.

Massebessic is still pretty solid, but is starting to erode around the shore line. I'd say it's a 7-10 days.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Massebessic is still pretty solid, but is starting to erode around the shore line. I'd say it's a 7-10 days.

Thanks for that report!.... getting my boat ready for April 1st!

Dan

[upthesaukee]

Lily Pond is still locked. In fact there was an ice fisherman out in the middle, pulling his equipment sled.

Dave

[MikeF-NH]

Me too Dan! I've called the place I store and told them to begin Spring prep and have delivery ready for the Friday before April 1 (I'm feeling good about dragging some lines on that first day of April!).

Even called my bike storage guys and told them to get me the bike as soonest convenience as I've missed a few good days already and I'm ready to get back on the EltraGlide and take a trip to the lakes region to check the ice and stop by AJs.

[thinkxingu]

Crazy how much difference a few miles makes—my Scout group stayed on Ossipee Lake this weekend and the ice was 8" thick in most places. We caught four fish in two hours!

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[steve-on-mark]

Wheelwright Pond in Lee this morning...yep, that's water...rest of the ice will probably be gone in a few days!

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[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Top-Water

Took a little ride thru there today to get a little fresh air and make up an excuse to go to Bass Pro Shop.

Overlooking the lake on RT 28 coming from Derry shows almost 80 to 90 % of the west side of the lake free of ice but not completly free of ice but dam close . The parking area near the rotary circle was closed of today so I did not get a chance see much on that side but on the way over there a lot of open water on the east side. I did not have time to veiw Claire's Landing. Tomorrows high temps will do a number on it. Maybe by the weekend it will be all done.

Thanks for that update Top!

If Massy is free of ice by Friday at the latest, that means Winni should be well open by March 27th.. which means Fishing April 1st!!

Dan

[Andromeda321]

It's pretty insane that I walked to work this morning in a skirt and wasn't cold whatsoever in Boston and to know there's still any ice on the lakes up north. I'm betting on a record-early ice out.

[WINNI BOB]

Originally Posted by WJT2

What are the ice conditions on Lily Pond in Gilford?

Solid "White-Ice" . Saw a guy ice-fishing a few days ago.

[panjumbie]

Saw this number plate here in New York. Couldn't resist posting it here...

[fatlazyless]

Yesterday afternoon, Tuesday-March 9, there was a single lone snowmobile whizzing past my spot a few times, close to shoreline, along Meredith Neck on a super fast, all black, super loud, two stroke sno-mo, wearing a black helmet with a camera attached to top of helmet.

....... Mr go-fast, be-loud, all black snowmobile ..... never seen this one here, before? It's like ..... he was the one and only sno-mo, atv, or air boat seen out on the ice for all-day, for yesterday. Must have been racing around to soak up that very warm 60-degree sunshine .... or something?

So, why does a snowmobiler wear a camera attached to their helmet, like that?

[CaptT820]

I havent been up to the lake recently, but based on all of the cameras that I have access to, it looks like the ice doesn't have much longer to survive. The ice is starting to look brown in places and some larger pieces have broken off near the shore in some of the cam views. Any first hand observations out there to confirm this?
Hoping for an early ice out, like everyone else. Pretty sure the ice doesn't make it until April

[C-Bass]

Somebody was ice fishing yesterday on 19mi bay, so it must not be too thin up in Moultonborough bay...

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Thanks for that update Top!

If Massy is free of ice by Friday at the latest, that means Winni should be well open by March 27th.. which means Fishing April 1st!!

Dan

I'll take a detour on my way home and check it out again and post an update. Extra light now is nice may hit it before dark. The east side is always the last to go. As of Sunday along Rt 121 there was a open water out about 30 feet from shore but the middle still looked pretty solid and still pretty white. It got up over 70 on Monday and today it is nearly as warm. The Pennichuck ponds along Rt-3 just north of Exit 8 are all but clear and they clear about a week ahead of Massebessic. Even if the Winni isn't completely clear by April 1 no doubt there will be plenty of open water to splash in and fish. May just have to dodge a few ice bergs and of course typical early season debris.

Need to get the wind to get kicked up and that will certainly start to break things up nicely.

[Hillcountry]

Someone on an ice fishing forum said Massy was wide open today.

[ishoot308]

Lily Pond is still frozen solid as of a few minutes ago, even the edges....

Dan

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Hillcountry

Someone on an ice fishing forum said Massy was wide open today.

It is not, but very close. The east side still has ice on it, about 1/4 of the largest area is open on the 121 side, the rest of it is still covered but it will not be for long. The ice is very dark, thin, very weak and looks like a good stiff wind will clear it off quickly. Driving around Auburn side the inlet near the boat ramp is open out a few hundred feet the ice again. Ice down there is in the same condition.

The west side is open.

Ice out is definitely imminent there.

[MAXUM]

No problem - I can't imagine it not being ice free by the weekend.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

No problem - I can't imagine it not being ice free by the weekend.

I just drove around Massy this morning and I would agree!

Looking out from Claire's Landing on the Auburn side, mostly open water now with very little ice left out in the distance. Coming down 121 heading into Manchester, all open water except a small amount of ice in the 28B bridge channel, which should be gone today. Absolutely no ice in view from the main parking area on 28B, all open water.

I would consider Massy completely ice free by Friday, which means somewhere around March 27th Winni should be open!

Dan

[MAXUM]

When I drove by Massebessic this morning looked something like this. All this last night was ice covered.

Wind kicked up last night and cleaned it off good.

[kwoods8091]

Ice is out on Lake Massabesic, official as of 3/11/20......wohoo!!!! Won't be long now.

[MikeF-NH]

One of the ice out indicators that I never see mentioned but has been very reliable is the Black Cat cam. There is an exposed rock on that cam about 100 feet offshore. When open water happens between that rock and the shoreline...it is almost always 2 weeks until the lake opens up. That happened yesterday.

IMO, the lake will be "boatable" for the April 1 opener and ice out declared sometime in that first week of April.

[rick35]

I miss the web cam at Silver Sands. Being able to see current conditions as well as previous years for that date was great. It made the countdown very predictable.

[WJT2]

I apologize. This subject(s) does not belong here, but I need help.
1.) Is it possible to set up the forum page so you get the latest post at the top of the page rather than having to scroll all the way to the end to get the latest post. List the posts new to old rather than old to new?
2.) I have yet to figure out how to start a new post.
Thank you Mr Webmaster.

[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by WJT2

I apologize. This subject(s) does not belong here, but I need help.
1.) Is it possible to set up the forum page so you get the latest post at the top of the page rather than having to scroll all the way to the end to get the latest post. List the posts new to old rather than old to new?
2.) I have yet to figure out how to start a new post.
Thank you Mr Webmaster.

When you’re on the home page you can click on where it says new posts and they will come up in order of the day.

[Merrymeeting]

The Anchor Marine webcam time-lapse gives a good indication of how quickly the ice is disappearing. Major chuck broke off the main ice pack today.

Open water showing on Snake Eyes for the first time too.

[CaptT820]

A large crack has formed from the outlet at Smalls Cove on the Echo Shores Cam in West Alton. There is some open water about 150 yards off shore, roughly in the middle of the channel. The ice at the shore has broken off from the main glacier in the middle. For those of us who live on Sleepers, it wont be long now.

[tis]

I always go to Forums, New Posts and then on the thread under posts where there is a poster's name there is a little box with a right arrow and if you click on that you go to the last post in that thread.

[WJT2]

I do not have a NEW THREAD thumbnail on my screen

[Mink Islander]

Won’t be long now....

[steve-on-mark]

Originally Posted by Mink Islander

Won’t be long now....

Can you pan that camera over a little to the left?

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[ishoot308]

Here’s A couple pics I took this morning. That’s Welch island in the background. It getting pretty black! Fridays rain and yesterday’s wind really Did a number on the ice. The upcoming mild temps and more rain this upcoming week could end it!

Picked up the Fishing boat Friday and got her ready to go yesterday!!

Dan

[ishoot308]

There is now open water starting in the broads....

Dan

[Descant]

Which way is the wind blowing? I hope future posters who mention wind will add this detail. Thank you.

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by Descant

Which way is the wind blowing? I hope future posters who mention wind will add this detail. Thank you.

Today out of the Northwest...

Dan

[dt5150]

think i'm gonna unwrap mine either this weekend or next. i've got a few things to fix or upgrade before i dunk it, but it'll be soon. there's still ice at the glendale launch, but it won't be around much longer.

[WJT2]

Can someone give an update to Ice Conditions on Lily Pond?

[AC2717]

Just saw a small aluminum out on the bear island cam

hope he was the ice breaker lol

[WJT2]

Can someone give an update to Ice Conditions on Lily Pond?

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by WJT2

Can someone give an update to Ice Conditions on Lily Pond?

Yes: Will not hold a person on a bicycle.

https://www.laconiadailysun.com/news...5e48d9c7c.html

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by WJT2

Can someone give an update to Ice Conditions on Lily Pond?

Lily pond is 50% open water as of 6:00 PM today.

From my vantage point overlooking the broads, ice will be going out very soon and I see no reason why I won’t be quarantined on Welch island next Saturday!!

Dan

[upthesaukee]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Lily pond is 50% open water as of 6:00 PM today.

From my vantage point overlooking the broads, ice will be going out very soon and I see no reason why I won’t be quarantined on Welch island next Saturday!!

Dan

Possibly dangerous. Dave says "But Dan, sure you may have the ice clear enough to get out to Welch's, but if the lake is not totally clear of ice, it could move and trap you on the island. "

And Dan says "And your point is what, Dave?"

About right, Dan?

Dave

[ishoot308]

Originally Posted by upthesaukee

Possibly dangerous. Dave says "But Dan, sure you may have the ice clear enough to get out to Welch's, but if the lake is not totally clear of ice, it could move and trap you on the island. "

And Dan says "And your point is what, Dave?"

About right, Dan?

Dave

Yup!.......😀😀😀

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by ishoot308

Yup!.......😀😀😀

Damn the torpedos - full speed ahead!

Good luck Dan!

[Prestige Worldwide]

Long Island looking at gunstock


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[smith point boater]

Lots of ice moving[ vs 2 days agoATTACH]15745[/ATTACH]


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