COVID 19 effects on summer economy

[TheRoBoat]

As I sit here under lockdown about an hour southeast of Gary, I have to say reading the forum the last week has been very interesting. And while he and I are polar opposites on the political spectrum, what we both do posses is a view into where NH is likely headed, as we are a week or two ahead of you out here. His perception may be different than mine.

While much of the angst appears to be focused on current events, I am curious to hear people’s opinions on what the summer economy is going to look like. Because from where I sit, I think people there need to prepare themselves that, other than islanders and locals, there will not be any real tourist activity this summer.

What we are going through here, and will be going through at least into the summer, is headed to NH.

NH cases doubled in a day, without the benefit of widespread available testing. Ditto Maine. NH is now arguably in the exponential growth phase, although that will not be known until more testing is available. NH has the oldest population in the country. And, as has been seen here, there is a strong resistance by many to adhere to simple and relatively painless recommendations to not spread the virus. All of those are factors that contribute to rapid spread of the disease. It’s already widespread there, you just don’t know it yet.

This is not a political issue, it is a numbers issue. This is not 2009 or any normal flu season, as the mortality rate for COVID is far higher, and it appears to be much more contagious. The country is built to handle situations like 2009 and seasonal flu from a medical perspective, year in and year out, and it did. I’ll even toss a big bone - it is most likely the credit for the successes of 2009 pandemic goes to GWB and the systems he had in place when he left office.

This is what the US is trying to avoid. Please read this article https://www.businessinsider.com/ital...choices-2020-3

Please don’t use misleading numbers from the past to downplay the seriousness of COVID. It’s irresponsible, and worse, it looks like you don’t understand the fundamental math that is driving the concern. Even people like me are hoping for Trump to get this right.

What do you think the summer looks like? Most every activity to make money this summer (other than locals/islanders) would probably be restricted. No Braun Bay, no restaurants, no concerts, etc.

Other factors to consider - nobody is going to have disposable income by the summer. Even if by some miracle it’s “all clear by Memorial Day” (I don’t think that is feasible), who at that point, is going to have money for the lake? And who will work there? Restaurants will have been closed for months - will a labor pool still exist?

[TheTimeTraveler]

Summer of 2020 may have to be postponed to Summer of 2021.

Who really knows what the future will bring?

Wish I could be more optimistic but reality is just beginning to settle in.

At least gasoline can now be purchased for less than $2 per gallon.

Everyone stay safe!

[Biggd]

I, for one, hope it slows down a little in the lakes region. I thought it was too crowded last season. But I'm retired now so I'm enjoying a slower pace away from the rat race.
I think the shark scare at the Cape added to the vacation crowds up North also.

[Andromeda321]

I read an article yesterday from a reputable source stating there is reason to believe we will have more than one period of social distancing over the next 18 months. This will probably be the longest and hardest, but until you get that herd immunity or a vaccine there is a decent chance it will have to happen again once people get out and start getting in contact with each other more so the virus can spread anew. (The article noted that the other solution would be to have the virus die out now, and close all borders for a year, but that is not realistic in the current world.)

So, with that, I don't know if lake life will completely shut down because people will be happy to socialize while they can- I could also imagine places like NH being popular because I think people will plan summer vacations closer to home in case the virus comes back. (Like, if you're in Boston you're much more likely to book a place at Weirs Beach than an Alaskan cruise or Euro-trip this year!) But it's impossible to know how long this current period will last until we can actually test to have an idea of how many cases there are in the USA.

Btw, I say this as someone who was supposed to get married this July and host several European family members at the lake. NOT the best year for that! But my fingers are still crossed for a reprieve this summer with everything (and maybe some good deals for the honeymoon).

[bilproject]

My wife and I were suppose to go to Europe for 2 weeks in June. Cancelled. Now for the first time in 15 years we are considering leaving the boats in storage and the island house closed up in order to stay closer to our doctors. I would say summer on the lake could be down as much as 80%. Island owners are in the age group most at risk. Let's hope things improve greatly.

[TheRoBoat]

Sorry that is happening. The same thing is occurring all over out here.

Have you set a go/no go date, or have any of the venues mentioned their plans?

I read a similar article about containment. Until a vaccine is created, or some existing drug is found to work, we can look forward to similar, possibly more localized, lockdowns.

Tourist businesses (including restaurants) may be looking at 18 months until normal conditions resume.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by bilproject

My wife and I were suppose to go to Europe for 2 weeks in June. Cancelled. Now for the first time in 15 years we are considering leaving the boats in storage and the island house closed up in order to stay closer to our doctors. I would say summer on the lake could be down as much as 80%. Island owners are in the age group most at risk. Let's hope things improve greatly.

I honestly do not think it is prudent to through out unsubstantiated numbers such as that summer activity could be down by 80%. People could easily make arguments it will increase but again it is just throwing out pure guesses not facts

[bilproject]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I honestly do not think it is prudent to through out unsubstantiated numbers such as that summer activity could be down by 80%. People could easily make arguments it will increase but again it is just throwing out pure guesses not facts

Just my opinion you can have yours. Forgot about the fact police.

[Flylady]

Also in Ca. but just north of Los Angeles. Things are quiet and I am prepared for more stringent Shelter in Place orders if needed. I had planned on returning to NH in May. I have an airline ticket, but who knows what will happen. My goal is to get to the lake and enjoy a quiet summer. I expect to have a few visitors from neighboring states. Collectively we will support the local economy as best possible. I also wonder about retired folks with health issues deciding to stay away. No doubt the economy will be impacted...the question is by how much.

[rsmlp]

That's literally nuts. 25-35% would be huge and unwelcome but probably expected at this point. Anyways it's all a guess at this point. Panic is in full mode and decisions should be postponed until cooler heads prevail.

[Andromeda321]

Originally Posted by TheRoBoat

Sorry that is happening. The same thing is occurring all over out here.

Have you set a go/no go date, or have any of the venues mentioned their plans?

Hah, well the wedding venue is actually the Marriott Long Wharf in Boston, which if you follow the Boston outbreak at all is where the Biogen conference was and is currently closed. This virus and I have similar tastes!

Now the one saving grace is we are actually already legally married- we had to do it quickly at town hall to get my husband his green card and it was a quiet affair. But we were saving the ring exchange for this ceremony and my husband was excited to have his family visit from his home country and all that jazz... so sad if we have to postpone but not as bad as other situations. We will see how it all plays out.

[TheRoBoat]

And I would have to ask why not? Do you think him mentioning 80% is going to impact people coming to the lake? If so, why do you think that?

If you don’t like that number - what would it be if all restaurants and bars are closed, concerts cancelled, etc for the entire summer? 60%? You seem to have a great pulse on the economy there, and I am guessing you have an idea.

What everyone should be taking from Bill’s statement is that members of the island community are considering not coming to the lake this year. That is a whole new level of concern for the region. Your bread and butter is wavering on coming to NH. Even to isolate on an island.

We who live far away, and who count the minutes until we are back at the lake, really want to come to NH this summer and spend a lot of money. The actions of the residents of NH over the next few weeks is going to determine how feasible that is.

[garysanfran]

Do I think there's a bit of media hype?...I do...How much? I don't know. I worked in the City room of the Boston Globe for a few years and know a bit about the commercial side of the news business as well as the editorial.

I'm exercising caution, staying indoors and I've sanitized everything.

I have my house in Meredith rented for the entire summer and have to get back there soon to prepare it. So far no cancellations. Cancellations worry me.

At the same time, I have a vacancy coming up on a rental I own in San Fran.

Getting on a plane and dealing with airports and buses is a bit disturbing. However, once I get to the lake, I'll be fine and happy.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by TheRoBoat

And I would have to ask why not? Do you think him mentioning 80% is going to impact people coming to the lake? If so, why do you think that?

If you don’t like that number - what would it be if all restaurants and bars are closed, concerts cancelled, etc for the entire summer? 60%? You seem to have a great pulse on the economy there, and I am guessing you have an idea.

What everyone should be taking from Bill’s statement is that members of the island community are considering not coming to the lake this year. That is a whole new level of concern for the region. Your bread and butter is wavering on coming to NH. Even to isolate on an island.

We who live far away, and who count the minutes until we are back at the lake, really want to come to NH this summer and spend a lot of money. The actions of the residents of NH over the next few weeks is going to determine how feasible that is.

Point is you are just throwing around arbitrary numbers that some could take seriously and decide not to come to the lake this season and further hurt the local businesses. It is March 18th and way too soon to see if this will impact tourism in July and August. I also could make a case that it could significantly increase because many may take short road trips this season instead of flying or long drives.

Remember these local businesses are people's livelihoods lets try not put out negative opinions on an already difficult climate when we are all uncertain what might happen 3 months from now

[garysanfran]

People may be reluctant to travel far this season and may decide to stay closer to home. This could be a boom for The Lakes Region.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

People may be reluctant to travel far this season and may decide to stay closer to home. This could be a boom for The Lakes Region.

We are on the same page Gary

[garysanfran]

A large % of the rentals in the Region are single family houses and cottages. These facilities are far safer than motels and hotels. You can control who comes and goes. No encounters with strangers or doorknobs recently touched by strangers. Also, I believe the #'s coming out of NH are very low for those infected.

[TheRoBoat]

I’m flattered at your opinion of my influence. If I wrote “All is well, come on up” would you assume it would be a great summer? It’s also a little contradictory to say I am going to influence people not to come, and in the next sentence claim it is way to early to tell anything.

You also imply that I do not care about people’s livelihood because I bring up a difficult topic. I could turn around and say your, and others, somewhat cavalier attitude towards the seriousness of this issue is far more damaging to the prospects of local businesses, as it does nothing more than extend the inevitable, and lengthen recovery time.

The entire stock market gains, 3 years of a bull market, of this administration are gone over this issue, but you think it’s too soon to tell if it will impact tourism in the big summer months?

[TheRoBoat]

I wholeheartedly agree with this. I think NH is going to be shocked when the numbers start to rise.

It seems the numbers here in CA are starting their growth - I think I saw 46 new in LA county. It's going to be an eye opening few weeks, and frustrating.

I saw yesterday the you posted no traffic and silent in SF. Down here - empty highways during commute, holiday traffic midday as people ran errands. Much quieter today

[thinkxingu]

It's March 18th—other than ordering my jetski and wishing I could be up there rather than down here for the CVid quarantine, I'm not thinking about summer at all.

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[joey2665]

Originally Posted by TheRoBoat

I’m flattered at your opinion of my influence. If I wrote “All is well, come on up” would you assume it would be a great summer? It’s also a little contradictory to say I am going to influence people not to come, and in the next sentence claim it is way to early to tell anything.

You also imply that I do not care about people’s livelihood because I bring up a difficult topic. I could turn around and say your, and others, somewhat cavalier attitude towards the seriousness of this issue is far more damaging to the prospects of local businesses, as it does nothing more than extend the inevitable, and lengthen recovery time.

The entire stock market gains, 3 years of a bull market, of this administration are gone over this issue, but you think it’s too soon to tell if it will impact tourism in the big summer months?

It’s not contradictory it is too early but as I said some people could be influenced by your numbers. I just assume not say anything to hurt our local businesses a wait til the season gets closer

All you post is negativity and doom and gloom. Yes this is a serious problem but there is also in my opinion a tremendous amount of overreaction.


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[TheRoBoat]

Bookmarking for a month from now.

[garysanfran]

Personally, I would feel more secure from something passed through human contact if I were in a more remote location...Like in the woods on Meredith Neck with only one neighbor.

I'm here in San Francisco, among the Great-Unwashed, densely packed population of an urban center. I think I am more at risk here...than watching the red squirrels, deer and fishers in the Meredith woods.

I am under ordered quarantine. I don't care. I just got a 65" Sony OLED with a great surround-sound. Gonna get callouses on my butt after 15 days.

Panic set in yesterday when the pot dispensaries were ordered closed, but liquor stores were not...Lines everywhere to beat the deadline. Today they re-opened...Medical marijuana needs you know and both alcohol and pot have a recreational legality, so, so so. Yup watched it all on my big 65".

[SAB1]

I’m not sure any of us know for sure what It will look like but one thing for sure we are likely headed to mass layoffs. For those of you not working in Boston or near it, the city has been a ghost town for almost two weeks now. All those construction projects in Boston at a standstill now. Guess what that interest on the bank notes the developers are carrying is going to hurt quick. It’s really rippling thru everything. So when people are out of work and out of money many won’t vacation.

[garysanfran]

Originally Posted by SAB1

I’m not sure any of us know for sure what It will look like but one thing for sure we are likely headed to mass layoffs. For those of you not working in Boston or near it, the city has been a ghost town for almost two weeks now. All those construction projects in Boston at a standstill now. Guess what that interest on the bank notes the developers are carrying is going to hurt quick. It’s really rippling thru everything. So when people are out of work and out of money many won’t vacation.

Something else to consider.

I enjoy the input of though I get from the Forum members. Diverse and intelligent.

I've also noticed...maybe just me...that there is a certain cordiality among society in general and on this Forum specifically now...No?

[WinnisquamZ]

Thinking out of the box here, but I believe some businesses will use this down time to reset. New business model and employees. Little risk if you shut down as many loans and funds will be available to recover. Also, employees you wanted to fire, but could not for varies reason won’t be hired back. This is a once in a lifetime for some to hit the reset button without risk. Wrong, yes. But it will happen


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[joey2665]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

Thinking out of the box here, but I believe some businesses will use this down time to reset. New business model and employees. Little risk if you shut down as many loans and funds will be available to recover. Also, employees you wanted to fire, but could not for varies reason won’t be hired back. This is a once in a lifetime for some to hit the reset button without risk. Wrong, yes. But it will happen


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Your diabolical


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[8gv]

Summer spending in the lakes region requires income and/or wealth.

This summer:

Incomes will be diminished.

Wealth will be diminished.

I expect that it will be rather quiet around here this summer.


Disclaimer for the flamethrowers...

I do not want it to be this way.
I cannot influence the outcome through my posting here.
I was asked to speculate and have done so.

[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by 8gv

Summer spending in the lakes region requires income and/or wealth.

This summer:

Incomes will be diminished.

Wealth will be diminished.

I expect that it will be rather quiet around here this summer.

Disclaimer for the flamethrowers...

I do not want it to be this way.

I cannot influence the outcome through my posting here.

I was asked to speculate and have done so.

Hoping after these three weeks we get asked to get moving. People will still be at risk, but the health care system should be stronger and able to address it. Those sitting on cash will find many bargains at and around the lake


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[dpg]

Call me nuts but I don't much care about the NH economy or supporting it right now. My concerns are with my family and children who both have 2,000+ a month mortgages and are not working. Yeah they were sent home paid but for how long? I have no problem "helping" the next person but when a "mom and pop" store sells item A for 3.00 and that exact item is 1.88 at Wally Mart sorry I'm going to the chain store every time. I'm far from cheap and "help" when I can but I like most work hard for what I have and I like to think I'm semi intelligent with how I save and spend it.

[thinkxingu]

Time for people to pull themselves up by the bootstraps.

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[BroadHopper]

No new cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan! The cycle appears to be a couple of months instead of 18 months. Of course anything can change and happen.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...orld/23955123/

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by BroadHopper

No new cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan! The cycle appears to be a couple of months instead of 18 months. Of course anything can change and happen.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...orld/23955123/

As reported by "Chinese officials"? LOL the same officials that tried to cover this up in the first place? The same officials that kicked out western reporters for reporting what was really going on over there? Sorry but they have zero credibility IMHO.

[Biggd]

China is being looked at as the best case outcome now and Italy as the worst.

[Newbiesaukee]

Originally Posted by BroadHopper

No new cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan! The cycle appears to be a couple of months instead of 18 months. Of course anything can change and happen.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...orld/23955123/

Although I do not trust Chinese statistics; it is mostly true that the repressive government did effectively lock down the country and disinterested Western observers have basically confirmed the statistics.

But, to conclude that this supports the idea of only a few month natural cycle of the virus and is unrelated to Chinese tactics is wishful thinking.

[dpg]

Sorry but the Chinese just plain lie in my opinion, yours may vary...

[codeman671]

Taiwan had an incredibly fast and reactive response to this and to date are relatively unscathed. I have an employee that works remote in Taiwan as well as an outside agent we work with. They are going about their life normally.

Contacts of mine in China were shut down and working remote for 2 months, but all restrictions are being lifted.

My company, normally in electronics/ITAD, has been shifting focus a bit and is working on importing medical supplies such as masks to help out with the shortage. We are in the process of getting our supply approved with multiple health care facilities here in the northeast that are desperately in need. The shortage of protective devices is real.

[Leoskeys]

Originally Posted by TheRoBoat

I’m flattered at your opinion of my influence. If I wrote “All is well, come on up” would you assume it would be a great summer? It’s also a little contradictory to say I am going to influence people not to come, and in the next sentence claim it is way to early to tell anything.

You also imply that I do not care about people’s livelihood because I bring up a difficult topic. I could turn around and say your, and others, somewhat cavalier attitude towards the seriousness of this issue is far more damaging to the prospects of local businesses, as it does nothing more than extend the inevitable, and lengthen recovery time.

The entire stock market gains, 3 years of a bull market, of this administration are gone over this issue, but you think it’s too soon to tell if it will impact tourism in the big summer months?

The stock market is still up over 300% from its 2009 low. Yes, 11 year bull market ended this month, and has dropped roughly 25% from its high, but S&P 500 has still gone from 666 in March of 2009 to current 2,400 this week. Lots of wealth created the past 11 years. It’s a bummer no doubt, but still find ourselves in a much better place than 2008.

[garysanfran]

Made-in-China...

Then look for something made here...A bit more expensive and better quality...

Try to find a Christmas ornament not made in the non-Christian country of China?

[panjumbie]

Testing here in NY state, particularly downstate has expanded in the last few days. There have been something like 22,000 tests and about 1/4 currently have come back positive. Already 25%! Everything here is shutting down, all the indoor malls, restaurants, barber and beauty shops, bars. Businesses are only allowed to have 1/4 of their workers present.

California is basically telling everyone to stay home, everyone.

If the widespread testing had started weeks ago, we'd be in much better shape, in particular, the symptomless "carriers" would have been isolated before they infected so many and the cases wouldn't have been spiking so much. We are now beginning to close the barn door, but the horses are mostly already escaped.

Before you look at the "low" numbers in NH, ask how many tests have been given and what the percentage of positives is. You may be where NY was a week ago or so, but look at where it has gone to now. Yes, the population density is less, but here on Long Island, there are a lot of cases in the low population density areas now.

This thing is not good. Too many will die, many more are taking weeks or more to recover. And we don't even know what the long term prognosis is for those recovering now.

Am I concerned, you bet. I'm 77 and have some chronic issues. I can't hibernate, I have to eat. But I'm avoiding contact as much as I can. And from what I read, this could go on for months.

[MAXUM]

There are a couple ways to look at this. The increase in the number of cases is a bad thing, or while not preferable there is a benefit to it.

The more that get it and survive those that do now have a natural immunity to it thus one LESS person to spread it. So there is some positives not just purely negative. The other key thing is that most that get this will survive. It seems like everyone assumes this is a death sentence.

Hopefully some of these drugs that have been tested and show promise against this virus in controlled studies get wide spread distribution and start to help get this thing under control. They won't stop the spread but all indications are they have the potential to significantly reduce the mortality rate. That is a HUGE development!

[fatlazyless]

Well ....... today is Friday, March 20, so the first day of summer is three months away. Here's hoping this whole corona virus scare will dry up with the warmer months ahead, and the lakes region will again be crazy busy on the weekends and more quiet on the week days.

Here's a thought about The Dive barge, located at the Winnipesaukee Pier in Weirs Beach. Will be interesting to see if the State of NH continues with its laissez faire approach to letting it go spuds down into the sand bars and become an attractive nuisance/adult beverage/public lake urination problem with all its' boater customers and the corona virus pandemic? How will that work out this year?

This lake belongs to the people of the State of New Hampshire, so where will the state be on this issue in 2020 now with the corona virus, here?

www.thedive-nh.com

[Descant]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

As reported by "Chinese officials"? LOL the same officials that tried to cover this up in the first place? The same officials that kicked out western reporters for reporting what was really going on over there? Sorry but they have zero credibility IMHO.

We'll know more when McDonalds, Starbucks and Apple reopen their China operations fully. Not all news from China comes from "Chinese officials". It seems there is a measure of healthy cynicism when it comes to news these days.

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by Descant

We'll know more when McDonalds, Starbucks and Apple reopen their China operations fully. Not all news from China comes from "Chinese officials". It seems there is a measure of healthy cynicism when it comes to news these days.

All trade with China should be terminated immediately. I hope we as a country can adapt to supply our own companies and industries with what they need to operate and thrive in the future.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by panjumbie

Testing here in NY state, particularly downstate has expanded in the last few days. There have been something like 22,000 tests and about 1/4 currently have come back positive. Already 25%! Everything here is shutting down, all the indoor malls, restaurants, barber and beauty shops, bars. Businesses are only allowed to have 1/4 of their workers present.

I think numbers make things clearer but citing your source and a link gives more credibility. For me, this applies to all posters, not just the one quoted above. Saying I read it in the NYT or Boston Globe (same owners, same editorial policy?) is no more reliable than saying "I read it on the internet." Numbers tend to grow easily as they get re-quoted. Above, originally stated as "about 1/4". Then, it becomes a hard "25%". Over time, that becomes "more than" and the next quote is ... you get the idea.
If you test in an area where there is greater likelihood of something, you should expect higher numbers.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Descant

Saying I read it in the NYT or Boston Globe (same owners, same editorial policy?) is no more reliable than saying "I read it on the internet."

I disagree--the Times and the Globe (and the Wall St Journal, just to name one on the other side of the political spectrum) have strong editorial and fact checking controls. Plus, they are well known, so it is easy to identify their bias.
That is not to say they are perfect, but they own up to and correct their mistakes. They are WAY better than "on the internet".

BTW, they do not have the same owners or editors. The Times is a public company, mostly controlled by the Sulzberger family; the Globe is owned by John Henry.

[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by Descant

I think numbers make things clearer but citing your source and a link gives more credibility. For me, this applies to all posters, not just the one quoted above. Saying I read it in the NYT or Boston Globe (same owners, same editorial policy?) is no more reliable than saying "I read it on the internet." Numbers tend to grow easily as they get re-quoted. Above, originally stated as "about 1/4". Then, it becomes a hard "25%". Over time, that becomes "more than" and the next quote is ... you get the idea.
If you test in an area where there is greater likelihood of something, you should expect higher numbers.

Are they testing everyone, in other words a big pool of people, or just those with symptoms who want to get tested?

I don't think 25% of the general public will test positive. It could be that 4% of people requested a test and 25% of those tested positive. That would mean an infection rate of 1%.

[TheRoBoat]

I am not sure if the question is in reference to NY, NH, or everywhere, but here are the latest NH test numbers:

https://www.nh.gov/covid19/

[Newbiesaukee]

Although I believe Covid-19 will be as devastating, if not more so, than I thought a few weeks ago; it is still important to recognize there is a lot still unknown. Also, a number of new studies are available yielding information suggesting that what we thought before may not be true. But these new studies must be validated. For example, we now believe that it may frequently transmitted by people with no symptoms. It is still not clear how long the virus can persist on different surfaces...and persistence does not mean it can cause disease. Although it seems to be holding that the elderly are more at risk, today data suggests men are twice as likely to have serious illness than woman. Also a higher percentage of young males seem to,require hospitalization than even the elderly, although the death rate is higher in the elderly. Hydroxychloroquine, which I used in my practice many years ago for lupus patients, MAY be useful, but it is not the innocuous medication it is said to be. It needs to be looked at carefully for effectiveness as well as safety. New studies suggest the 6 foot rule may not be quite as useful as touted.

The point is that a lot of the stuff we believe today may not be the case as we learn more. The testing itself can be confusing...the 25% positive is meaningless unless you are testing a whole population not just sick or scared people.

Anyway, just be critical thinkers. Let’s try to avoid the politics as much as possible and try to help each other as much as feasible. That said, it is not a kumbaya moment; it is serious business.

[ishoot308]

Very well said Newbie!!

Thanks for your insight!

Dan

[panjumbie]

Since someone asked, I took my numbers from the New York Times which quoted Governor Cuomo. They are now considerably out of date, less than a day later.

Here is the latest link to the Times, scroll down to the part on case numbers for the current totals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/n...#link-36e2b5a5

( I hope I put the link in correctly...)

So New York State is shutting down everything except essential activities. I'm 77 and I'm supposed to wear a mask if I go outside, but I have no idea where I'd get one and I do have to get food to eat.

I'm considering wearing the facemask I had for wearing in potentially asbestos contaminated areas. I'm sure it is really the wrong cartridge, but better than nothing. I suspect I'd get some very strange looks wearing that into the supermarket!

If you don't like the Times or my data, you have the same access to the Internet as I and are welcome to search for whatever data you are happy with. I guess if you search the New York TV stations, you can find video of the Governor's press conferences and watch them yourself.

Personally, based on what I've heard and seen, I'll take Governor Cuomo's word much more than I'll take what I hear from the Executive branch in Washington.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by panjumbie

Since someone asked, I took my numbers from the New York Times which quoted Governor Cuomo. They are now considerably out of date, less than a day later.

Here is the latest link to the Times, scroll down to the part on case numbers for the current totals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/n...#link-36e2b5a5

( I hope I put the link in correctly...)

So New York State is shutting down everything except essential activities. I'm 77 and I'm supposed to wear a mask if I go outside, but I have no idea where I'd get one and I do have to get food to eat.

I'm considering wearing the facemask I had for wearing in potentially asbestos contaminated areas. I'm sure it is really the wrong cartridge, but better than nothing. I suspect I'd get some very strange looks wearing that into the supermarket!

If you don't like the Times or my data, you have the same access to the Internet as I and are welcome to search for whatever data you are happy with. I guess if you search the New York TV stations, you can find video of the Governor's press conferences and watch them yourself.

Personally, based on what I've heard and seen, I'll take Governor Cuomo's word much more than I'll take what I hear from the Executive branch in Washington.

Forget the fact I would not take the word from the NY Times or Cuomo over the president, but that is your choice.

Yes NYS is shutting down non-essential business and having them work from home but most of these businesses are already doing this, look at the list of essential businesses in NYS it is quite extensive from all food and medical related businesses including restaurants for take out and delis, pharmaceuticals, banks, laundromats, gas stations, auto repair and on and on.

You will see not much will change Monday from what you have seen yesterday or today except that you cannot get a haircut, tatto, manicure or piercing. So do not overreact because the "non-essentials" are closing as I said most already have in NYS

[ApS]

My news-aggregator site put this Johns-Hopkins image up.

[marinewife]

Today, Friday, I went to my local Harvest Mkt for bread- my regular checker asked where I've been, she hasn't seen me in over a week. I told her I was staying at home as much as possible. She said she wished she could stay home, too.

Earlier, a female customer came through, saying she had just gotten in from a flight from FL coming back from a cruise and was so happy to be coming up to her summer home early.

My cashier said to her PLEASE STEP BACK if you just came off a cruise ship. She said the lot was full of out of state lic plates today and she's afraid the cases up here will get a lot worse soon.

I think the summer is still such an unknown, for sure. Each day moves like the old '24' show, jam packed with news so that Monday feels like a month ago...

[garysanfran]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

I disagree--the Times and the Globe (and the Wall St Journal, just to name one on the other side of the political spectrum) have strong editorial and fact checking controls. Plus, they are well known, so it is easy to identify their bias.
That is not to say they are perfect, but they own up to and correct their mistakes. They are WAY better than "on the internet".

BTW, they do not have the same owners or editors. The Times is a public company, mostly controlled by the Sulzberger family; the Globe is owned by John Henry.

When I worked on the City desk at The Globe (then owned by the Taylor family), one of my jobs was to get photos needed to accompany stories.

I was not a fan of Richard Nixon and always made it a point to chose a very unflattering photo...So, even subtle editorializing exists.

As far as editorial fact checking? It was true when I worked there. Three levels of attribution before publication. Not now. Too much competition to get it to print to research facts. A lot of the news today is based on nonfactual reporting elsewhere and then regurgitated.

Mostly newspapers are biased in what it is they chose NOT to report.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

I disagree--the Times and the Globe (and the Wall St Journal, just to name one on the other side of the political spectrum) have strong editorial and fact checking controls.

Just an FYI The Wall Street Journal has not been on the “right” side of the spectrum for quite a few years and is clearly not a fan of the current administration.


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[TiltonBB]

The Boston Globe has had "honesty" problems for a long time.

Their writer Kevin Cullen was suspended for a misrepresentation. Mike Barnicle was fired for dishonesty and then became a regular on MSNBC. I suppose you could question MSNBC's judgement because they also employ tax cheat "Reverend" Al Sharpton.

From a 2018 article: The Boston Globe, New England’s largest newspaper, has struggled with a string of controversies in recent months that have roiled the staff, the latest of which concerns a claim against its top editor.

[thinkxingu]

I would be lying if I didn't say I'd like a little lull around the lake—these last couple years have been much busier than in the past. That being said, I don't want anyone hurt by this moment, but it's already happening—just how bad it will be is to be seen.

I can't help but wonder, though, if the long-term economical trade-off is worth the approach we've taken.

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[joey2665]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I would be lying if I didn't say I'd like a little lull around the lake—these last couple years have been much busier than in the past. That being said, I don't want anyone hurt by this moment, but it's already happening—just how bad it will be is to be seen.

I can't help but wonder, though, if the long-term economical trade-off is worth the approach we've taken.

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A case can be made that overcompensating for the few will be disastrous to the many. If the economy and a return of normalcy has not been achieved by April 1st we could all be in serious trouble and heading into an economic depression.


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[Winilyme]

Originally Posted by joey2665

A case can be made that overcompensating for the few will be disastrous to the many. If the economy and a return of normalcy has not been achieved by April 1st we could all be in serious trouble and heading into an economic depression.


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Joey...I hope you are the greatest economist on earth and that I’m completely wrong in that I feel April 1 is a pipe dream. I don’t see economic normalcy being achieved for two years minimum. Things are simply spiraling out of control. The best we can hope for now is a sign that the stay-at-home strategy works. From that will come hope and the recovery can at least begin.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Winilyme

Joey...I hope you are the greatest economist on earth and that I’m completely wrong in that I feel April 1 is a pipe dream. I don’t see economic normalcy being achieved for two years minimum. Things are simply spiraling out of control. The best we can hope for now is a sign that the stay-at-home strategy works. From that will come hope and the recovery can at least begin.

You’re missing the point. The point is to stay in strategy is only going to work for so long. Our government cannot bail out every business and every person that encounters financial trouble because they were out of work or their business is closed. Eventually we wanna reach the point which in my opinion is April 1 there’s gonna be no turning back. The larger companies Such as the oil companies in the car manufacturers account experience serious financial issues which could very well spiral us into a depression. FYI again this is my opinion and no I am not the greatest economist in the world I’m just a realist.


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[TiltonBB]

Don't panic! Maybe help is on the way!

A team of infectious disease experts at the University of Queensland in Brisbane say they have seen two existing medications manage to wipe out COVID-19 infections.

Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, and HIV-suppressing combination lopinavir/ritonavir have both reportedly shown promising results in human tests and made the virus 'disappear' in infected patients.Professor Paterson said it wouldn't be wrong to consider the drugs a possible 'treatment or cure' for the deadly respiratory infection.

Professor Paterson said it wouldn't be wrong to consider the drugs a possible 'treatment or cure' for the deadly respiratory infection. He explained that when the HIVmedication lopinavir/ritonavir was given to people infected with the coronavirus in Australia it led to the 'disappearance of the virus'.

He told Australian news site news.com.au: 'It's a potentially effective treatment.

'Patients would end up with no viable coronavirus in their system at all after the end of the therapy.'

Although the treatment had been effective in a smattering of cases, there hasn't been any controlled testing like what would be needed to test a new drug, Professor Paterson said.

[gwhite13]

yesterday govt. officials in briefing only wanted people with symptoms to get testing. it's too late at that point. the only way to contain is to id people with virus as they are spreading without showing.

testing failures are more evident every day.

as for the latest boarder closings. too late locking the door when the killer is already in the house.

[Biggd]

I think the best we can hope for is this turns the corner by May. I don't think April 1st was ever a realistic date esp if we did nothing. The bigger question is when we come out of this is it going to back to life as usual? Will people change their habits after being locked up for so long?

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[Leoskeys]

Sadly we didn’t act fast enough, too many claimed it was a hoax, didn’t take it serious(many still aren’t) and now we have blown past South Korea and others who we affected sooner but acted quicker. I’m sure you’ve seen this chart. If you haven’t, focus on the bottom right chart. It took China over three months to get control of it. Thankingfully China just had third day in a row with no new positive cases, so they see light at end of tunnel. But they acted more swiftly than Italy, France, Germany, and U.S.
So even if we were lucky to have a situation like China, that would mean this will drag into June.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

[TheRoBoat]

On April 1st, unfortunately, NH will most likely be in the beginning phase of their shelter in place order.

How long will it last? No idea - we have been told 3 weeks here, but that may be conservative. It will all depend on the availability of testing.

And three weeks would not mean the lifting of all restrictions. Schools will most likely not be in session this year. They may keep restaurants take out only for months, if not longer. We just don't know.

Any existing drugs that will help fight the virus will be exceedingly helpful, but they will be useful in the future.

The sooner NH closes down, the sooner they can open back up.

I would welcome the opinion of anyone who is in a shelter in place zone, to see if they agree with me or not.

[Juiced06GTO]

I am willing to bet this will have a huge impact on the summer. My family and friends have already cancelled our planned trip to Sebago in August. Two of the families we were going with are laid off, their employers said they'd pay a month of health insurance and after that they were on their own. The company I work for will continue to run as we provide emergency equipment, generators, light towers and things like that, but I have no doubt my staff of 28 will likely be cut down at some point to just a few essential employees, probably myself, a few mechanics, and drivers and thats it. Times are not good for a lot of people right now.......

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by TheRoBoat

On April 1st, unfortunately, NH will most likely be in the beginning phase of their shelter in place order.

How long will it last? No idea - we have been told 3 weeks here, but that may be conservative. It will all depend on the availability of testing.

And three weeks would not mean the lifting of all restrictions. Schools will most likely not be in session this year. They may keep restaurants take out only for months, if not longer. We just don't know.

Any existing drugs that will help fight the virus will be exceedingly helpful, but they will be useful in the future.

The sooner NH closes down, the sooner they can open back up.

I would welcome the opinion of anyone who is in a shelter in place zone, to see if they agree with me or not.

My family is on the edges of sheltering in place, and I agree with you. Earlier this week we persuaded our son and his girlfriend to leave Brooklyn and go to our place in Tuftonboro. Now watching the slow motion track wreck in NYC health care, we are deeply relieved. They are self quarantined for another 10 days or so.

We are complying with what would be a shelter in place order in Mass if (when?) one comes in. It's not so bad if you have enough space at home and remember you can still go out--you just can't get near other people. We will join our son sometime in April or May.

Data and analyses in today's NY Times suggests that things will be much tighter 3 weeks from now, and that movement will be restricted for more than 3 weeks from when it starts

[WinnisquamZ]

Disagree with the last few posts, testing means little. If you test negative, does that mean you can now travel? What if you come in contact with someone who has it, do you want to get tested again? Testing is only for those that have show symptoms. There is no way to stop this virus, only delay its spread. This current shut down is to allow the medical staffs to ramp up and prepare for the months ahead. Many more of us are going to get sick, but will recover. Those with other issues may not. What the medical community is trying to avoid is having to make the decision of who should be treated due to limited availability of supplies.



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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

Disagree with the last few posts, testing means little. If you test negative, does that mean you can now travel? What if you come in contact with someone who has it, do you want to get tested again? Testing is only for those that have show symptoms. There is no way to stop this virus, only delay its spread. This current shut down is to allow the medical staffs to ramp up and prepare for the months ahead. Many more of us are going to get sick, but will recover. Those with other issues may not. What the medical community is trying to avoid is having to make the decision of who should be treated due to limited availability of supplies.



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I'm confused--none of these posts even mentioned testing.

Also, I agree that there is no way to stop this, only to delay it's spread. The purpose of the shelter in place strategy is to delay the spread for long enough (flatten out the curve) so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed and the critically ill can access ventilators, etc. You seem to agree with this when you say "what the medical community is trying to avoid..."

So aren't we on the same page?

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

My family is on the edges of sheltering in place, and I agree with you. Earlier this week we persuaded our son and his girlfriend to leave Brooklyn and go to our place in Tuftonboro. Now watching the slow motion track wreck in NYC health care, we are deeply relieved. They are self quarantined for another 10 days or so.

We are complying with what would be a shelter in place order in Mass if (when?) one comes in. It's not so bad if you have enough space at home and remember you can still go out--you just can't get near other people. We will join our son sometime in April or May.

Data and analyses in today's NY Times suggests that things will be much tighter 3 weeks from now, and that movement will be restricted for more than 3 weeks from when it starts

Yes because the NYT always tells the truth. They forgot the other side. If the French continue to have success with ZPac and Chloriquin it could be much less time.


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[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

I'm confused--none of these posts even mentioned testing.

Also, I agree that there is no way to stop this, only to delay it's spread. The purpose of the shelter in place strategy is to delay the spread for long enough (flatten out the curve) so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed and the critically ill can access ventilators, etc. You seem to agree with this when you say "what the medical community is trying to avoid..."

So aren't we on the same page?

Yes, I disagree with the shelter in place. If you call for a shelter in place and then release everyone from it are you not liable if and when someone does get sick again? The haters are calling for just that, someone to blame. I am looking for a soft opening first week of April. Business start opening and people begin to resume their lives.


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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Yes because the NYT always tells the truth. They forgot the other side. If the French continue to have success with ZPac and Chloriquin it could be much less time.


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NO. First, I was careful to say "suggests", because the Times made clear that nobody knows for sure.

Second--If I had a tax question, I would ask a CPA (like you?). So I would hope you would ask a drug developer how long a drug development process takes. The drug timeline is not from the Times, it is my (semi) professional opinion. Clinical trials take months to perform and evaluate, a pharmaceutical production line takes months to ramp up. Even if we were optimistic that currently approved drugs would work, we could not prove this with reasonable certainty and produce supply for the entire country (world?) before July 1. If you spend just a few minutes investigating this with the information sources of your choice, I think you'll agree

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

NO. First, I was careful to say "suggests", because the Times made clear that nobody knows for sure.

Second--If I had a tax question, I would ask a CPA (like you?). So I would hope you would ask a drug developer how long a drug development process takes. The drug timeline is not from the Times, it is my (semi) professional opinion. Clinical trials take months to perform and evaluate, a pharmaceutical production line takes months to ramp up. Even if we were optimistic that currently approved drugs would work, we could not prove this with reasonable certainty and produce supply for the entire country (world?) before July 1. If you spend just a few minutes investigating this with the information sources of your choice, I think you'll agree

If you did investigate you would see Bayer already has a large supply of Chloriquin available.


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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by joey2665

If you did investigate you would see Bayer already has a large supply of Chloriquin available.


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I know--I saw that this morning in the Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/h...sultPosition=1

But--and here's a question for the group--what is the absolute minimum amount of time to show that a drug is effective at helping a single patient for, say, one month? Or two months? Or three months? Correct answers--obviously(?)--are 30, 60, 90 days.

Now consider that you must recruit hundreds or maybe thousands of volunteers to participate in this study. Now consider that the data will be incredibly large and complex to evaluate, typically taking months (though perhaps not this time). Finally, when we say "a large supply", remember that we need to dose the entire world. All of a sudden, "millions" is not a large supply.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

I know--I saw that this morning in the Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/h...sultPosition=1

But--and here's a question for the group--what is the absolute minimum amount of time to show that a drug is effective at helping a single patient for, say, one month? Or two months? Or three months? Correct answers--obviously(?)--are 30, 60, 90 days.

Now consider that you must recruit hundreds or maybe thousands of volunteers to participate in this study. Now consider that the data will be incredibly large and complex to evaluate, typically taking months (though perhaps not this time). Finally, when we say "a large supply", remember that we need to dose the entire world. All of a sudden, "millions" is not a large supply.

You are really taking this to the nth degree. We need to start someplace if this works it’s a great place to start we need to get our country back to normal or at least on the road back to being normal otherwise if you follow your plan by the time we get medication to the “” whole world “our economy will be in a severe depression and we won’t have to worry about virus anymore.

How about some positive thinking instead of all the negative posts and doomsday scenario’s


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[Biggd]

Not too difficult to social distance at the lake. Just walked to town of Meredith and it's very quiet. Many of the people at the town docks are sitting in their cars overlooking the lake.

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[WINNI BOB]

Originally Posted by TheRoBoat

As I sit here under lockdown about an hour southeast of Gary, I have to say reading the forum the last week has been very interesting. And while he and I are polar opposites on the political spectrum, what we both do posses is a view into where NH is likely headed, as we are a week or two ahead of you out here. His perception may be different than mine.

While much of the angst appears to be focused on current events, I am curious to hear people’s opinions on what the summer economy is going to look like. Because from where I sit, I think people there need to prepare themselves that, other than islanders and locals, there will not be any real tourist activity this summer.

What we are going through here, and will be going through at least into the summer, is headed to NH.

NH cases doubled in a day, without the benefit of widespread available testing. Ditto Maine. NH is now arguably in the exponential growth phase, although that will not be known until more testing is available. NH has the oldest population in the country. And, as has been seen here, there is a strong resistance by many to adhere to simple and relatively painless recommendations to not spread the virus. All of those are factors that contribute to rapid spread of the disease. It’s already widespread there, you just don’t know it yet.

This is not a political issue, it is a numbers issue. This is not 2009 or any normal flu season, as the mortality rate for COVID is far higher, and it appears to be much more contagious. The country is built to handle situations like 2009 and seasonal flu from a medical perspective, year in and year out, and it did. I’ll even toss a big bone - it is most likely the credit for the successes of 2009 pandemic goes to GWB and the systems he had in place when he left office.

This is what the US is trying to avoid. Please read this article https://www.businessinsider.com/ital...choices-2020-3

Please don’t use misleading numbers from the past to downplay the seriousness of COVID. It’s irresponsible, and worse, it looks like you don’t understand the fundamental math that is driving the concern. Even people like me are hoping for Trump to get this right.

What do you think the summer looks like? Most every activity to make money this summer (other than locals/islanders) would probably be restricted. No Braun Bay, no restaurants, no concerts, etc.

Other factors to consider - nobody is going to have disposable income by the summer. Even if by some miracle it’s “all clear by Memorial Day” (I don’t think that is feasible), who at that point, is going to have money for the lake? And who will work there? Restaurants will have been closed for months - will a labor pool still exist?

I can't imagine the Weirs Beach, and the other vacation areas around the lakes region with no people. What about BIKE WEEK, and the 4th of July ?????
How about our annual 4th of July invasion of the Hispanics from Lawrence and Lowell to the Weirs??? I love the idea of the Hispanics honoring the 4th,but to come up here and take over the beach for the day, and spend nothing at the local shops is a bit dicey. I suppose the fireworks for the summer are going to be a thing of the past too.

Winni Bob

[gravy boat]

Objective journalism started to die with the invention of 24/7 news. It's been long-gone for years. S

Originally Posted by garysanfran

When I worked on the City desk at The Globe (then owned by the Taylor family), one of my jobs was to get photos needed to accompany stories.

I was not a fan of Richard Nixon and always made it a point to chose a very unflattering photo...So, even subtle editorializing exists.

As far as editorial fact checking? It was true when I worked there. Three levels of attribution before publication. Not now. Too much competition to get it to print to research facts. A lot of the news today is based on nonfactual reporting elsewhere and then regurgitated.

Mostly newspapers are biased in what it is they chose NOT to report.

[Leoskeys]

Originally Posted by joey2665

You are really taking this to the nth degree. We need to start someplace if this works it’s a great place to start we need to get our country back to normal or at least on the road back to being normal otherwise if you follow your plan by the time we get medication to the “” whole world “our economy will be in a severe depression and we won’t have to worry about virus anymore.

How about some positive thinking instead of all the negative posts and doomsday scenario’s


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They aren’t negative posts, they are realistic posts. We would all love to start getting back to normal April 1st! But that’s NINE days from now! Based on the trajectory you can call a April 1st “positive thinking”, but also very unrealistic. We are all on the same team and all want this to be resolved the right way. Yes, the economy is screwed for awhile, but let’s not rush and mess this up even further.

[Hillcountry]

Originally Posted by WINNI BOB

I can't imagine the Weirs Beach, and the other vacation areas around the lakes region with no people. What about BIKE WEEK, and the 4th of July ?????
How about our annual 4th of July invasion of the Hispanics from Lawrence and Lowell to the Weirs??? I love the idea of the Hispanics honoring the 4th,but to come up here and take over the beach for the day, and spend nothing at the local shops is a bit dicey. I suppose the fireworks for the summer are going to be a thing of the past too.

Winni Bob

Hopefully, Bob, we’ll be well past this hiccup by July...

[Newbiesaukee]

Just a few words about testing. I am not an expert in some of this, and welcome facts.

The test, as I understand it, is not a blood test such as would be used to measure past infection. It is also not a culture such as a throat or urine culture where the specimen is cultured on some sort of artificial media.

Rather the test is actually utilizing the genetic footprint of the virus itself from specimens in the back of the throat. I believe it uses viral RNA fragments.

The rest is a bit more of my opinion. IF the goal is to learn about how quickly the virus spreads, who it is likely to attack ,etc. That is, to learn about the actual behavior of the virus which is vital information, then the entire population needs to be tested. I believe Iceland is close to this, South Korea and a few other countries are also trying The larger the area, the better the result. But again, all should be tested in the ideal situation.

On the other hand, when should an individual be tested? This is the confusing issue. If “tests on demand” were available, no problem. But they are not, not enough test kits, not enough personnel, etc.

Using myself as an example, and I am in the older risk group, I am pretty much trying to avoid other people and have stocked my house. If I get fever, cough, or other symptoms I would just hang in there with the usual remedies. Only if my condition worsened with respect to serious breathing difficulties would I call my provider and ask where to go OR I would go directly to the hospital and they would triage me to decide if I needed to be admitted. A test would be helpful to rule out a treatable condition such as the flu. A positive test would alert other medical personnel to,protect themselves. But again, the test would have no use to me personally. In other words, in the present test availability, there is no reason for the average person to be tested. Not ideal and lots of exceptions....medical personnel, important people whose results would affect many others, etc.

in a sense, in the U.S. we just do not have the ability to test “on demand.” It did not have to be that way and when this is over, it should be investigated as to why we are in this situation. But that is for more calm, and hopefully, more deliberative times.

[joey2665]

That’s a few words Newbiesaukee?


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[garysanfran]

So, your test comes back negative. Ten minutes later you turn a door knob somewhere and catch COVID-19...What good was the test?

[Newbiesaukee]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

So, your test comes back negative. Ten minutes later you turn a door knob somewhere and catch COVID-19...What good was the test?

I agree, unless you are testing very large populations.
Not to argue, but catching it from a doorknob is much less likely than catching it from an infected individual.

Off subject, but when I was practicing, there were an amazing number of men and woman who caught the clap from toilet seats. ( I forgot this is the internet, the comment was intended to be funny.)

[Newbiesaukee]

Originally Posted by joey2665

That’s a few words Newbiesaukee?


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Actually, in real life I am pretty quiet. But I definitely overwrite.

[TheRoBoat]

Earlier today, LA County decided to stop using testing as a means of containment. As others have mentioned, testing works best on a large population. We have a large population, we just don't have enough tests.

LA TIMES - https://www.latimes.com/california/s...inment-testing

Other locations are likely to follow. So for us, testing is now something that may be helpful down the road.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

So, your test comes back negative. Ten minutes later you turn a door knob somewhere and catch COVID-19...What good was the test?

You have it in reverse--the valuable tests are the positive results in asymptomatic people. You feel fine, but you get a positive result. So you stay home instead of unknowingly passing it on two others, who themselves pass it on to four others, who pass it on to eight others...

Hopefully this catches the guy who was going to leave it on the doorknob for you

[garysanfran]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

You have it in reverse--the valuable tests are the positive results in asymptomatic people. You feel fine, but you get a positive result. So you stay home instead of unknowingly passing it on two others, who themselves pass it on to four others, who pass it on to eight others...

Hopefully this catches the guy who was going to leave it on the doorknob for you

Couldn't the person leaving the virus on the door knob be someone who should have stayed at home for 15 days, showed no symptoms, but went out to get tested and touched that door knob? SO they test positive at that point and are told to quarantine, but they touched how many surfaces on the way to that test? And infected how man ypeople?

Nope. I think people should stay inside for 15 days and if they develop no symptoms they don't have it. No test needed. Develop symptoms, get tested.

If they offer me testing, I'm not going. I'm hunkered down with no symptoms and no way to contaminate others...Unless I go out to go get tested.

[JEEPONLY]

Is this why Johnny Carson had the extreme fear of backing into the bathroom doorknob?

[Glendale Deli Boy]

Originally Posted by WINNI BOB

I can't imagine the Weirs Beach, and the other vacation areas around the lakes region with no people. What about BIKE WEEK, and the 4th of July ?????
How about our annual 4th of July invasion of the Hispanics from Lawrence and Lowell to the Weirs??? I love the idea of the Hispanics honoring the 4th,but to come up here and take over the beach for the day, and spend nothing at the local shops is a bit dicey. I suppose the fireworks for the summer are going to be a thing of the past too.

Winni Bob

Folks constantly lament that Weirs Beach isn’t more thriving but then there are others apparently hacked off that Hispanic “invaders” take over the beach and spend nothing. Perhaps if businesses have something to offer those visitors, they would spend their money. Weirs is almost always dead. I wouldn’t spit on the “invading” hordes if I was interested in Weirs Beach and its future. Instead, how about the novel idea of selling something that people would be interested in spending their hard earned money on? Isn’t that the American way?

[fatlazyless]

Here's a March 21, 2020 report from ProPublica by Lizzie Presser on hospital ventilator treatment for patients in Italy.

If you google the first nine words it should show up for you.

'A medical worker describes terrifying lung failure from covid-19 - even in his young patients.'

Reading this again really got my attention with regard to taking it seriously ......

[TheRoBoat]

I think the LA Times is allowing access to all content, but this may be behind a paywall.

Here are some recent photos of what it looks like during shelter in place

https://www.latimes.com/story/2020-0...od-of-patients

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

Couldn't the person leaving the virus on the door knob be someone who should have stayed at home for 15 days, showed no symptoms, but went out to get tested and touched that door knob? SO they test positive at that point and are told to quarantine, but they touched how many surfaces on the way to that test? And infected how man ypeople?

Nope. I think people should stay inside for 15 days and if they develop no symptoms they don't have it. No test needed. Develop symptoms, get tested.

If they offer me testing, I'm not going. I'm hunkered down with no symptoms and no way to contaminate others...Unless I go out to go get tested.

I agree that if every person did as you are doing--stayed inside for 15 days with "no way" to contaminate others--that would be even better than everybody getting tested. But that is not possible--almost nobody has enough food in their homes for 15 days. Plus, when you emerge in 15 days, you will have chance to be infected and pass on the virus.

Just wondering a couple of things--

Are you staying in San Fran for the Summer? That would be quite a commitment to your position.

Also, when you say "I'm not going", it sounds like you're avoiding the draft or something. Are you afraid of the test, or is it a political thing, or something else I don't understand?

[garysanfran]

I may have no other option.

I have my place in Meredith rented through Bayside Rentals for the entire summer but can't get back there to get the place ready, so I may have to cancel a lot of other people's vacations in the process. I will know in a few days.

Just getting from Logan to Meredith is going to be a challenge

[TheRoBoat]

Let me see if I can answer a few of the issues/questions brought up by FlyingScot’s post. Looks like your son made it out of Brooklyn just in time!

Let’s assume Gary and I are under shelter in place here for two more weeks. No matter how careful we are, every time we venture out into the public, we risk either becoming infected, or infecting someone. We have to eat, people do still work, we need medicine, etc. You just need to be as careful as possible. Multiply that by the population of California.

The end of our shelter in place will not be the end of the virus here, or how we have to deal with it. There will most likely be flare ups, and periodic shelter in place orders, until a vaccine is made sometime next year. A lot will be learned this time of how to, or how to not, manage the next 18 months.

As far as being tested, I am guessing Gary and I would be considered a “waste of a test” in two weeks, if we continue with our regimens. All tests in the US will most likely be needed elsewhere - where extensive testing could stem the outbreak. There would certainly be other people in CA in more need of a test than either of us.

[CowTimes]

Originally Posted by WINNI BOB

How about our annual 4th of July invasion of the Hispanics from Lawrence and Lowell to the Weirs??? I love the idea of the Hispanics honoring the 4th,but to come up here and take over the beach for the day, and spend nothing at the local shops is a bit dicey.

Winni Bob - do you want to build a wall around the Weirs? Every person—regardless of their ethnicity, race, or town they live in—has just as much of a right to enjoy the Weirs as you or any other old white man, myself included. What does ethnicity have to do with anything? The fact that you even felt the need to mention ethnicity or towns speaks volumes—and not about these fellow human beings you callously refer to. I would venture to guess you never even had a conversation with any of these people in order to have any factual basis for your statement that these human beings “invading” “your” Weirs are even from Lowell or Lawrence.

There comes a point where this whole concept of “unconscious racism” should just be called what it is - racism.

[garysanfran]

Also, when you say "I'm not going", it sounds like you're avoiding the draft or something. Are you afraid of the test, or is it a political thing, or something else I don't understand?

Let me clarify for you...You don't understand.

I said if I was "offered" testing, I wouldn't go. I didn't say what I would do if I was "Ordered" to get tested.

[TheProfessor]

Originally Posted by WINNI BOB

I can't imagine the Weirs Beach, and the other vacation areas around the lakes region with no people. What about BIKE WEEK, and the 4th of July ?????
How about our annual 4th of July invasion of the Hispanics from Lawrence and Lowell to the Weirs??? I love the idea of the Hispanics honoring the 4th,but to come up here and take over the beach for the day, and spend nothing at the local shops is a bit dicey. I suppose the fireworks for the summer are going to be a thing of the past too.

Winni Bob

Please don't forget the Irish, the Polish, and the Italians.

My relatives personally were on the Mayflower reproduction ship at Plimoth Plantation.