Back to business by Easter

[kawishiwi]

Originally Posted by Seaplane Pilot

Thanks Major. The liberal fear-mongers hate the facts. All I can picture is the scene from the Wizard of Oz when the Wicked Witch has water dumped on her. “I’m melting, I’m melting”!!! Facts are to liberals, as water was to the witch.

Being desperately ignorant of mathematics is not uncommon or really your fault. Exponential math can be a challenge!
Swallowing the nonsense coming out of the white house & guzzling the fox news cool-aid IS however your fault completely. Reacting to any info you don't feel good about by labeling it 'fake news' is really just immature and may work for you until reality bites you in the ...

Heres a few facts...

Reported U.S. daily deaths
Thur 26th : 293
Fri 27th : 401
Sat 28th : 525
Sun 29th : ?

These are not updated totals of the dead, but new deaths each day.

Quiz: do you see a pattern here? (hint:exponential math)

[winterh]

Seems to me the truth lies somewhere in the middle of the "We are all going to die from the virus" and "The virus is nothing to worry about". No rational person (are there any of these left?) would object to many of the precautions we have taken so far. On the other hand the side that thinks we can shut down the economy for months on end while the government feeds and takes care of us like we are farm animals has no concept of economics. A middle ground must be found and thats the line I see the administration trying to take. I have used the analogy and I am sure you have heard it elsewhere before of the speed limit. Thousands die every year in car accidents. We could eliminate every death with a 10 MPH speed limit. Why don't we? Don't you care that people die! Life is about tradeoffs is the answer. Every decision must balance the cost vs the benefits.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by kawishiwi

Being desperately ignorant of mathematics is not uncommon or really your fault. Exponential math can be a challenge!
Swallowing the nonsense coming out of the white house & guzzling the fox news cool-aid IS however your fault completely. Reacting to any info you don't feel good about by labeling it 'fake news' is really just immature and may work for you until reality bites you in the ...

Heres a few facts...

Reported U.S. daily deaths
Thur 26th : 293
Fri 27th : 401
Sat 28th : 525
Sun 29th : ?

These are not updated totals of the dead, but new deaths each day.

Quiz: do you see a pattern here? (hint:exponential math)

Can you please now extrapolate that into a carbon footprint savings please? I want to know how much this will effect man made climate change, in a good way of course! This is actually exciting isn't it? I'm figuring at this rate we may be able to extend the - "we are all dead in 12 years" claim.

[winterh]

We could all use a laugh right now. This is an awesome takedown of the everyone will die crowd.

https://reason.com/video/remy-people-will-die/

[jeffk]

If you want a discussion of "facts", HERE is a good article that clearly discusses the difficulty of getting useful information at this time.

It has nothing to do with who is speaking or where they get their numbers or their reliability or smartness. There are simply too many moving parts and too much uncertainty to get numbers to plug in that give accurate answers. Garbage in (even if you think the numbers going in are right, they are not, per the article), Garbage out. This is being verified by the experts as their expectations are NOT being borne out by boots on the ground realities.

We do not know if this is going to be a typical seasonal flu impact or a bad pandemic. We do not know if the reaction to it is too much, too little, or just right. People are digging in to pick "winners" or "losers" of intentions or reactions based on personal favorites and politics. We CANNOT decide certainties based on data because the data and models based on it is shifting sand.

My gut tells me that the extremes are wrong. We will struggle but it will not be a disaster. We need to be nimble and react to changing realities. We need to work on being prepared.

In the end, those who were "right" about the course of this virus will be so because of luck, not knowledge.

[StevenGilford]

Originally Posted by jeffk

If you want a discussion of "facts", HERE is a good article that clearly discusses the difficulty of getting useful information at this time.

It has nothing to do with who is speaking or where they get their numbers or their reliability or smartness. There are simply too many moving parts and too much uncertainty to get numbers to plug in that give accurate answers. Garbage in (even if you think the numbers going in are right, they are not, per the article), Garbage out. This is being verified by the experts as their expectations are NOT being borne out by boots on the ground realities.

We do not know if this is going to be a typical seasonal flu impact or a bad pandemic. We do not know if the reaction to it is too much, too little, or just right. People are digging in to pick "winners" or "losers" of intentions or reactions based on personal favorites and politics. We CANNOT decide certainties based on data because the data and models based on it is shifting sand.

My gut tells me that the extremes are wrong. We will struggle but it will not be a disaster. We need to be nimble and react to changing realities. We need to work on being prepared.

In the end, those who were "right" about the course of this virus will be so because of luck, not knowledge.

I’m glad you put “facts” in quotations marks because you really should when quoting a conservative blog.

Coronavirus: Dr Deborah Birx making ‘fundamental scientific errors’ in rush to reopen US, warns expert behind White House data

“A leading US epidemiologist has accused one of the doctors on the White House’s coronavirus task force of “false reassurance” after she said a model he helped develop to predict the spread of the virus overstated the number of people likely to develop Covid-19 – when in fact it referred to something more like a best-case scenario.”

[StevenGilford]

So in summary:

Some people still don’t believe the virus is real

Some people believe the virus is just a flu

Some people believe the virus is more than a flu but won’t kill many people

Some people believe the virus is more than a flu and will kill some people but so what?

Some people believe the virus is more than a flu and might kill a lot of people, but working and making money is more important

Experts believe that best case model projections this virus is a lot worse than the flu and the containment measures we are taking are completely necessary

Experts believe that the worst cast model projections this virus is really bad and more containment measures are likely to be necessary


I don’t know about you all, but with faced with these “facts”, I don’t think we should take the middle ground between Deniers and Best Case Models. We should be preparing to cope with the worst case expert models and desperately hoping that the best case models prove true. We should not be preparing for the best case models and hoping the denier nutballs prove true.

[Newbiesaukee]

It is so much easier to bask in the glow of absolute certainty regardless of reality

than to accept the humility of the wise who seek truth recognizing it is absolutely

not totally attainable but is the best path to real knowledge and effective action.


Wishing and hoping ain’t no match for thinking and doing.

[StevenGilford]

Also, to preempt the next line of logical acrobatics, that Trump has already used to some extent:

"StevenGilford wants to shut down the whole US economy for 2 years to blow up our economy and stop Trump getting elected!"

No, not in the slightest.

I want the US economy to get back up and running as soon as we identify the true curves and numbers, and have confidence that our mitigation strategies are robust enough to manage the spread and impact based on input and guidance from multiple experts.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by StevenGilford

Also, to preempt the next line of logical acrobatics, that Trump has already used to some extent:

"StevenGilford wants to shut down the whole US economy for 2 years to blow up our economy and stop Trump getting elected!"

No, not in the slightest.

I want the US economy to get back up and running as soon as we identify the true curves and numbers, and have confidence that our mitigation strategies are robust enough to manage the spread and impact based on input and guidance from multiple experts.

Here's the problem with "guidance from multiple experts"

None of them know what the hell they are talking about. They provide nothing but theories based on what? The most critical piece of information is missing, how many people are actually infected with this? Answer is nobody knows. We only know the number who have died and the how many are confirmed to have it but that is NOT enough to accurately forecast anything.

Better analogy... computer models forecast the weather based on a whole slew of data points. Now try to accurately forecast the weather a week or two from now with half the data points missing. Now add a meteorologist to interpret it. We already know how inaccurate they are when they have all the data to work with and are forecasting a major storm. Now inject key pieces of data being missing and how much more inaccurate will they be? That is what we are dealing with here.

It's the fear of the unknown and the fact we have no instant solution that is driving people to this level of hysteria.

These outbreaks historically happen, they come and they go. Some die most do not. Freaking out about all this is not going to change the course this thing runs, only how long and painful it will be.

[jeffk]

[StevenGilford]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Here's the problem with "guidance from multiple experts"

None of them know what the hell they are talking about. They provide nothing but theories based on what? The most critical piece of information is missing, how many people are actually infected with this? Answer is nobody knows. We only know the number who have died and the how many are confirmed to have it but that is NOT enough to accurately forecast anything.

Better analogy... computer models forecast the weather based on a whole slew of data points. Now try to accurately forecast the weather a week or two from now with half the data points missing. Now add a meteorologist to interpret it. We already know how inaccurate they are when they have all the data to work with and are forecasting a major storm. Now inject key pieces of data being missing and how much more inaccurate will they be? That is what we are dealing with here.

It's the fear of the unknown and the fact we have no instant solution that is driving people to this level of hysteria.

These outbreaks historically happen, they come and they go. Some die most do not. Freaking out about all this is not going to change the course this thing runs, only how long and painful it will be.

I'm not sure which part of this reply you believe more.

If it's the "critical missing piece of information" then the logical next step would be to pick a state and conduct widespread testing, and you should be lambasting Trump for telling us that "everyone who wants a test can get it" when the reality is that's not true.

If on the other hand your belief is "**** happens, people die, suck it up grandma your time is up" then fine. Abhorrent to me, but fine.

[Newbiesaukee]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Here's the problem with "guidance from multiple experts"

None of them know what the hell they are talking about. They provide nothing but theories based on what? The most critical piece of information is missing, how many people are actually infected with this? Answer is nobody knows. We only know the number who have died and the how many are confirmed to have it but that is NOT enough to accurately forecast anything.

Better analogy... computer models forecast the weather based on a whole slew of data points. Now try to accurately forecast the weather a week or two from now with half the data points missing. Now add a meteorologist to interpret it. We already know how inaccurate they are when they have all the data to work with and are forecasting a major storm. Now inject key pieces of data being missing and how much more inaccurate will they be? That is what we are dealing with here.

It's the fear of the unknown and the fact we have no instant solution that is driving people to this level of hysteria.

These outbreaks historically happen, they come and they go. Some die most do not. Freaking out about all this is not going to change the course this thing runs, only how long and painful it will be.

“None of them know what the hell they are talking about.”

And yet, you do look at the weather report, you do recognize that today’s forecast is more accurate than next week’s.

No one is claiming absolute knowledge, just the best prediction based on the opinion of those most likely to know. Of course, ignore those who have opinions you know are at extremes.

And it would have been a lot better had we the data points that earlier and more widespread testing would have given us.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

Here's the problem with "guidance from multiple experts"




Better analogy... computer models forecast the weather based on a whole slew of data points. Now try to accurately forecast the weather a week or two from now with half the data points missing. Now add a meteorologist to interpret it. We already know how inaccurate they are when they have all the data to work with and are forecasting a major storm. Now inject key pieces of data being missing and how much more inaccurate will they be? That is what we are dealing with here.

I was waiting for you to use numerical weather prediction and meteorologists in your arguments. Since you know it all, you will have no problem with the following assignment.

Perform a scale analysis of the primitive equations of motion that govern large-scale atmospheric motions. Explain each step.





Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by StevenGilford

So in summary:

Some people still don’t believe the virus is real

Some people believe the virus is just a flu

Some people believe the virus is more than a flu but won’t kill many people

Some people believe the virus is more than a flu and will kill some people but so what?

Some people believe the virus is more than a flu and might kill a lot of people, but working and making money is more important

Experts believe that best case model projections this virus is a lot worse than the flu and the containment measures we are taking are completely necessary

Experts believe that the worst cast model projections this virus is really bad and more containment measures are likely to be necessary


I don’t know about you all, but with faced with these “facts”, I don’t think we should take the middle ground between Deniers and Best Case Models. We should be preparing to cope with the worst case expert models and desperately hoping that the best case models prove true. We should not be preparing for the best case models and hoping the denier nutballs prove true.

You forget one.
Some people believe there is an acceptable number of deaths we should be under so they don't lose a pay check.
It's all a hoax, fake news, another attempt by the left to get the President out of office, LOL!