NHPR COVID-19 data charts

[SailinAway]

These are very enlightening: https://www.nhpr.org/post/updated-tr...shire#stream/0

Look especially at the second chart, of total current cases. The state government's daily reports do not show trends of increases and decreases, but only the day's tally. NHPR's charts show that current cases are continuing to rise. Meanwhile, I fear we've been lulled into believing that we can reopen businesses because things are under control.

[Mr. V]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

I fear we've been lulled into believing that we can reopen businesses because things are under control.

That is what makes this entire pandemic so problematical: we're damned if we do, and damned if we don't.

There are strong, valid arguments to be made both for and against reopening and loosening the prohylactic measures currently in place.

No clear "right" or "wrong."

[pjard]

Compare the graph that shows the increase in testing vs. new cases. That's why it appears casing are increasing. It's simply that we are doing MUCH more testing.

[Not to Worry]

I heard on NPR yesterday that NH will not peak until late August to October. More testing surely will help knowing where those cases. Be nice if NH starts tracing those case so people exposed can isolate. Sadly I think people are already exhausted with being quarantined and things will get much worse.

[FlyingScot]

Increased testing is partly to "blame". But the other important factor is that cities are the first hotspot, then the virus migrates from there. New York is trending down nicely now, but many places with virus from New York are still growing. NH will be at the tail end of the curve, with cases imported from NY, MA, FL

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by Mr. V

That is what makes this entire pandemic so problematical: we're damned if we do, and damned if we don't.

There are strong, valid arguments to be made both for and against reopening and loosening the prohylactic measures currently in place.

No clear "right" or "wrong."

I agree with you. We can try to value human life over profit, but a total economic collapse will also lead to loss of human life as it will impact the essentials: the food supply, hospitals. Who knows, maybe even the water supply and the power grid. I think a partial answer lies in reevaluating priorities: what are the basic essentials that people absolutely need, and how can they be provided with those? What government projects need to be dropped in favor of the essentials?

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by pjard

Compare the graph that shows the increase in testing vs. new cases. That's why it appears casing are increasing. It's simply that we are doing MUCH more testing.

According to the NHPR graph, New Hampshire has tested 2.12% of the population. I think that shows that we really don't know how many people are infected.

[rsmlp]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

These are very enlightening: https://www.nhpr.org/post/updated-tr...shire#stream/0

Look especially at the second chart, of total current cases. The state government's daily reports do not show trends of increases and decreases, but only the day's tally. NHPR's charts show that current cases are continuing to rise. Meanwhile, I fear we've been lulled into believing that we can reopen businesses because things are under control.

Actually closer perusal shows very few cases in the Lakes Region and NONE in my home town of Moultonboro. Of course, I expect that will increase but still encouraging. Moreover, don't forget that 80% of deaths are with people 65 and older WITH comorbitities. You can't protect everyone 100% all the time. Some reopening of our economy is essential. Few are talking about the pernicious health affects of keeping the economy shut down mainly because it is immeasurable and therefore an unknown but it is certainly adverse.

[Paugus Bay Resident]

Notice "People Being Monitored" has been relatively flat for a considerable period.

[Chris M]

Good points going both ways, really.

The thing that bothers me the most about all this is why now, for the first time in history that I can tell, we leave it up to society to determine which businesses are deemed worthy to operate. Property rights used to be sacrosanct.

I get that folks are scared, but of all the crises we've been through as a country it's this virus where millions of good, proud, self-reliant people can be made and kept unemployed through a stroke of a pen, and there's no differentiation between me up here in Coos county where there's not a covid case within 40 miles and downtown Manchester.

[Rich]

Does anyone else think they should include the results of antibody tests along with the active virus tests? At this point every person should be given both tests, or if they show 'negative' then they should be tested for antibodies (perhaps not to waste an antibody test resources on someone that is positive for the active virus).

Looking at the testing, I see number of tests for active COVID 'positive' and 'negative', but no 'has COVID antibodies', 'did not have COVID antibodies'.

Any person today can not have an active virus, but tomorrow they may catch it, so the active COVID tests are only useful for the day the sample was taken. It's useless an hour after the sample is taken. But if they have antibodies, it seems they may be safe for a period of time.

It seems the news is missing this, or they certainly don't talk about it much. All they seem to say is 'we need more testing' to be sure we're safe to open. But it seems to me without the other part of the picture (antibodies to indicate if you already had Covid), then we don't have the information needed.

Even these NHPR graphs don't have this data. Is it because the antibody tests are to new? Or do you think there is a reason why they are ignoring this?

Yes. we all know that no one yet can say how long these antibodies will protect someone (if at all).

[Newbiesaukee]

Originally Posted by Rich

Does anyone else think they should include the results of antibody tests along with the active virus tests? At this point every person should be given both tests, or if they show 'negative' then they should be tested for antibodies (perhaps not to waste an antibody test resources on someone that is positive for the active virus).

Looking at the testing, I see number of tests for active COVID 'positive' and 'negative', but no 'has COVID antibodies', 'did not have COVID antibodies'.

Any person today can not have an active virus, but tomorrow they may catch it, so the active COVID tests are only useful for the day the sample was taken. It's useless an hour after the sample is taken. But if they have antibodies, it seems they may be safe for a period of time.

It seems the news is missing this, or they certainly don't talk about it much. All they seem to say is 'we need more testing' to be sure we're safe to open. But it seems to me without the other part of the picture (antibodies to indicate if you already had Covid), then we don't have the information needed.

Even these NHPR graphs don't have this data. Is it because the antibody tests are to new? Or do you think there is a reason why they are ignoring this?

Yes. we all know that no one yet can say how long these antibodies will protect someone (if at all).

The short answer is that there are a multitude of companies making antibody tests and many have been unreliable. The FDA now requires that the tests be approved. We’ll see how that works out.

That’s the short answer.

The public is getting “testing” fatigue. Eyes glaze over at the mention of “ we need more testing.” The truth, as I see it, is we do need more testing but very few medical explainers have been clear enough so the average person understands. Some have.

At this point, unless you have the ( almost certainly mistaken) belief that we are anywhere near herd immunity, antibody tests are somewhat less important to opening. What is more important is community random sampling to learn what part of the population really are asymptomatic carriers and contact tracing to be able to identify hot spots of activity. The test for these things are the somewhat standard tests used which is what the state offers...to see if you have the infection at that moment.

But very,very few places have the capacity or the will to do what should be done to safely reopen. We are all guinea pigs.

Well, I’ve probably glazed over a few eyes by now.

[gwhite13]

one of the local success stories was about a man from Moultonborough who beat the virus. It's closer than you think.