has market ever been hotter?

[winterh]

I was just looking at listings in Wolfeboro and there is only one Winni waterfront for sale and its 10 million. The few others are all under agreement. Has the market ever been tighter than that? Crazy. Lot of demand and near zero supply. I assume rest of lake is similar.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by winterh

I was just looking at listings in Wolfeboro and there is only one Winni waterfront for sale and its 10 million. The few others are all under agreement. Has the market ever been tighter than that? Crazy. Lot of demand and near zero supply. I assume rest of lake is similar.

My next door neighbor sold in one weekend. Houses flying out of my community on the other side of the lake


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[Juiced06GTO]

I've come to the realization that I need to find a much better paying career before I'll ever be able to buy anything on the lake. My one possibility was an island cottage, but now those are upwards of half a mil. Oh well, I'll just keep stuffing money under the mattress until the next downturn...

[Winilyme]

I enjoy keeping tabs on the Winni waterfront market and I’ve been watching it closely for six years. Absolutely the busiest I’ve seen in that time. I check the listings several times a week and see many camps/cottages/homes come on the market and sell in days. Obviously, these don’t close right away and when they do, I don’t look into what they sold for but I’m betting in more than a few cases they are selling well north of the asking price. Especially it’s the $800K to $1.2K range that seem to go like hot cakes. The most amazing thing is how quickly the market escalated. Seems to be a direct correlation with COVID. I don’t remember feeling last year that we were going to be in a situation like this one year later. Probably folks desperate to get out of the cities and, with virtual technology, they easily can. I wonder how permanent this trend will be.

Makes me relieved that we bought in 2015. At that time I was a little bummed that I didn’t buy a year earlier when I think the market was lowest coming out it the recession. I’m not complaining now. On the other hand, it’s all a big cycle. Eventually the market will calm down and prices will revert.

[ApS]

Originally Posted by winterh

I was just looking at listings in Wolfeboro and there is only one Winni waterfront for sale and its 10 million. The few others are all under agreement. Has the market ever been tighter than that? Crazy. Lot of demand and near zero supply. I assume rest of lake is similar.

That $10 Million property includes six acres.

One Winter Harbor [Wolfeboro] waterfront is listed with Dow Realty. I haven't heard that it'd been sold--although the daily stream of "lookers" stopped after last week.

Edit:
Never mind. The $2 Million listing is "Active--Under Contract".

[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by winterh

I was just looking at listings in Wolfeboro and there is only one Winni waterfront for sale and its 10 million. The few others are all under agreement. Has the market ever been tighter than that? Crazy. Lot of demand and near zero supply. I assume rest of lake is similar.

I have been watching the real estate market in Moultonborough for several months now, every day. I have been waiting to see what homes are actually selling for because there are so many that are pending, but nothing has closed since August. I did see the one home that was listed for just under $6 million in Kona Farm sold for $5 million in August.

In Florida, where I live, my neighborhood is on fire! I have watched as it started very slowly building up steam and now it seems that a home is put on the market and within a couple of days it is pending. And the prices are going through the roof!

I think everywhere in the country where there is land and open space, is seeing the same demand. I do not think that it can last more than another year or so before it ultimately crashes back down.

[rsmlp]

Makes me relieved that we bought in 2015. At that time I was a little bummed that I didn’t buy a year earlier when I think the market was lowest coming out it the recession. I’m not complaining now. On the other hand, it’s all a big cycle. Eventually the market will calm down and prices will revert.

Calm down, yes; REVERT? Seriously doubt that. Occasionally prices come down a bit but rarely do they revert to previous levels.

[Biggd]

Back in June my daughter was looking at a condo in Samoset for 350K that sold within days of the listing. I just saw a similar unit come on the market for almost double that.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

Makes me relieved that we bought in 2015. At that time I was a little bummed that I didn’t buy a year earlier when I think the market was lowest coming out it the recession. I’m not complaining now. On the other hand, it’s all a big cycle. Eventually the market will calm down and prices will revert.

Originally Posted by rsmlp

Calm down, yes; REVERT? Seriously doubt that. Occasionally prices come down a bit but rarely do they revert to previous levels.

I agree prices never revert back to previous levels, they may drop a bit. The only exception was the mortgage crisis. Now if you were smart enough to buy in the lakes region in 2008 or 2009 you are sitting on much appreciated piece of real estate.


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[swnoel]

This what happens near the top of the cycle... craziness ensues were people abandon reason and drive prices into the stratosphere.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by swnoel

This what happens near the top of the cycle... craziness ensues were people abandon reason and drive prices into the stratosphere.

I've thought the same thing since spring. What people are paying for things these days is crazy. It's just a matter of time before a sizeable population of America is once again under water.

My neighbor, for example, just refinanced and took $30k out for a pool. They extended the term and are now tapped for equity—it's crazy town, like everybody forgets what happened in the Great Recession.

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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I've thought the same thing since spring. What people are paying for things these days is crazy. It's just a matter of time before a sizeable population of America is once again under water.

My neighbor, for example, just refinanced and took $30k out for a pool. They extended the term and are now tapped for equity—it's crazy town, like everybody forgets what happened in the Great Recession.

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I don't know about the lakes region but back in Ma many sales are cash sales, no mortgage.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I don't know about the lakes region but back in Ma many sales are cash sales, no mortgage.

There's certainly a portion of sales like that, but the mortgage business is booming, too, especially with refis. I keep waiting to see 2% since I'm already at 2.9!

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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

There's certainly a portion of sales like that, but the mortgage business is booming, too, especially with refis. I keep waiting to see 2% since I'm already at 2.9!

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A few months ago I found my parents original mortgage commitment from 1954, $15,000 at 3%.

[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by Biggd

A few months ago I found my parents original mortgage commitment from 1954, $15,000 at 3%.

My parents had a 6% mortgage rate when they built their house on the lake in 1963.

When we bought our first house in 1978, a 30 year fixed rate mortgage was 18%. We opted for an adjustable rate mortgage at 12% with 20% down.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I don't know about the lakes region but back in Ma many sales are cash sales, no mortgage.

Paying cash for a home right now with rates as low as they are is really financially foolish. If you have enough to pay cash, I’m not saying to get am 80% mortgage but consider 50-60% down and invest the rest. You will end up making money on the mortgage.


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[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I've thought the same thing since spring. What people are paying for things these days is crazy. It's just a matter of time before a sizeable population of America is once again under water.

My neighbor, for example, just refinanced and took $30k out for a pool. They extended the term and are now tapped for equity—it's crazy town, like everybody forgets what happened in the Great Recession.

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People are looking for any way they can to enjoy their own homes as much as possible.
You used to be able to go to the community pool for a swim and now you can’t. You used to go to the gym and work out but now you can’t. That’s why so many people are moving to new homes where they have a backyard for their family to get some exercise and fresh air.
If my daughter’s husband was not a school principal and dependent on his pension, she and her family would move in a heartbeat. They live in a small little row house in Baltimore City with two kids doing homeschooling and both parents working from home virtually.

If she could put a pool in her backyard, She would. She recently bought a peloton bicycle and the whole family is now using this since they cannot go to the gym anymore.

[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Paying cash for a home right now with rates as low as they are is really financially foolish. If you have enough to pay cash, I’m not saying to get am 80% mortgage but consider 50-60% down and invest the rest. You will end up making money on the mortgage.


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In my neighborhood, we have resales as well as new homes being built every day. The realtors say that over 70% of the new sales are paid in cash. They said that if you can pay in cash you have an advantage over those who are looking for a mortgage approval or any other contingencies. Buyers who are using cash are waiving everything else so they can have a fast sale.

[dickiej]

It's crazy everywhere....we are one hour east of Portland, OR.....everyone wants to get out of the city ( not to mention California ) the house we bought went on the market at 9:00 a.m....we got into a bidding war and got the sellers to accept our offer around 11:00.... Two hours on the market!

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

In my neighborhood, we have resales as well as new homes being built every day. The realtors say that over 70% of the new sales are paid in cash. They said that if you can pay in cash you have an advantage over those who are looking for a mortgage approval or any other contingencies. Buyers who are using cash are waiving everything else so they can have a fast sale.

I understand the strategy but it is a financial error. It’s pretty easy to be approved for a mortgage when your putting 50-60% down.


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[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I understand the strategy but it is a financial error. It’s pretty easy to be approved for a mortgage when your putting 50-60% down.


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My parents raised us to always have our homes paid because "you'll always have a place to seek shelter." I get making money, but there's something...calming about not having a mortgage. In fact, I'm just starting to get that general feeling as, as a teacher, it takes years to make decent money.

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[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

My parents raised us to always have our homes paid because "you'll always have a place to seek shelter." I get making money, but there's something...calming about not having a mortgage. In fact, I'm just starting to get that general feeling as, as a teacher, it takes years to make decent money.

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I think as your age increases so does the calming effect of knowing that your mortgage is paid off.

[Susie Cougar]

Originally Posted by dickiej

It's crazy everywhere....we are one hour east of Portland, OR.....everyone wants to get out of the city ( not to mention California ) the house we bought went on the market at 9:00 a.m....we got into a bidding war and got the sellers to accept our offer around 11:00.... Two hours on the market!

Just curious. Did you pay cash or take out a mortgage?

[Winilyme]

Originally Posted by rsmlp

Calm down, yes; REVERT? Seriously doubt that. Occasionally prices come down a bit but rarely do they revert to previous levels.

Maybe...we'll see. I think they reverted during the last recession 2011 - 2014 timeframe. The huge jump in such a short period makes me feel that something's got to pop. Granted, long-term COVID impact is such an unknown and I think that's what's driving the current market.

[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

My parents had a 6% mortgage rate when they built their house on the lake in 1963.

When we bought our first house in 1978, a 30 year fixed rate mortgage was 18%. We opted for an adjustable rate mortgage at 12% with 20% down.

Same. First condo purchased in spring of 82. 19.25 one year adjustable! Always have a laugh when people discuss their displeasure with rates around 5%. Today’s rates are unheard of, but I counter that with the extremely high building cost in the area.


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[dickiej]

Susie Cougar....cash....

[Woody38]

Here in MA every house that was on the market in our neighborhood has now sold. Two houses across from us and next door to each other sold. One asking $795 sold for $825, while the other listed at $1.1M sold for $1M. Others sold for near asking.
Why not buy when you can get 2% mtge. We have paid off one mtge and close to paying off the others also.

______________________________________

I am a retired workaholic and continuing aquaholic

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by Juiced06GTO

I've come to the realization that I need to find a much better paying career before I'll ever be able to buy anything on the lake. My one possibility was an island cottage, but now those are upwards of half a mil. Oh well, I'll just keep stuffing money under the mattress until the next downturn...

Be patient I said the same exact thing, prior to buying what I have but then the bit crash in '08 happened and a couple years later the opportunities started to appear on the market. Just keep socking that money away and when the euphoria come crashing down and it will, you'll be in great shape to make a run at something.

[TheRoBoat]

Homes and Land sold last 3 month (appx)

Belknap County - 452 Home, 90 Land
Carroll County - 492 Home, 168 Land

Moultonborough - 59 homes, 14 land (this pace has actually slowed the last few weeks)

I do not know what a "typical" 3 month period looks like, but it is safe to assume this is higher.

And these are just the people who could make it happen that quickly. The next few years will most likely change the dynamic of the lakes region forever

[Biggd]

The reason people are offering to pay cash is because most properties around my area are getting multiple offers. When the offers are fairly close you take the one that's most likely to close. Some people are offering way over asking price and the appraisal won't come in high enough so the buyers have to come up with more of a down payment which can kill a deal. A cash buyer gets the house then gets a mortgage later.

Originally Posted by joey2665

Paying cash for a home right now with rates as low as they are is really financially foolish. If you have enough to pay cash, I’m not saying to get am 80% mortgage but consider 50-60% down and invest the rest. You will end up making money on the mortgage.


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[Flylady]

Agree, the market is being driven by people who, because of covid have looked at options available to them that were not in the past. Remote working and learning provide so many more options as to where to live. On the lake where I live I watched 4 waterfront listings in 3 months sell at or above listed price within 3-4 days.

A neighbor with 2 children decided to buy an RV and they are now traveling across country in it to enjoy the US while working and schooling.

Another friend not living on the lake decided that the best use of their money was to purchase a huge pontoon boat. It was a generational family investment that afforded them weekends on the water throughout the summer and fall.

The one upside to Covid is that is has forced many to re-evaluate their priorities and not be afraid to make changes.

[thinkxingu]

I will be interested to see how those purchasing in the area, seeking "space," will do long-term without amenities and with a long winter. I'm thinking in a year or two, we may see a fair amount of those people retreating back to city life. As flylady said above, though, there is the very real chance that these people have reevaluated what's important in life and, like many of us, have settled on the lake/country(ish) lifestyle.

I do think the bubble will burst at some point, though. I mean, I NEED it to so's I can fit Jettie Two into my budget!

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[WinnisquamZ]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I will be interested to see how those purchasing in the area, seeking "space," will do long-term without amenities and with a long winter. I'm thinking in a year or two, we may see a fair amount of those people retreating back to city life. As flylady said above, though, there is the very real chance that these people have reevaluated what's important in life and, like many of us, have settled on the lake/country(ish) lifestyle.

I do think the bubble will burst at some point, though. I mean, I NEED it to so's I can fit Jettie Two into my budget!

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Agree. The lakes region November thu April is not for everyone. Like many have said “many days below freezing keep the rif raf away”


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[8gv]

There are winners and losers with the rapid escalation of real estate prices.

Sellers who are leaving the area win.

Sellers who are downsizing win a little but some of their gains are given up when they buy the smaller property that now has an inflated price.

Many will lose because their property taxes will go up with the new higher assessed value.

Town budgets may benefit from this.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

My parents raised us to always have our homes paid because "you'll always have a place to seek shelter." I get making money, but there's something...calming about not having a mortgage. In fact, I'm just starting to get that general feeling as, as a teacher, it takes years to make decent money.

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I understand the thought process but if you put the portion you are financing in a managed broker account and don’t touch it it is the same thing and your making money probably about 5% per year over and above the 3% mortgage and for 20-30 years you are talking about serious money. Plus your still getting the full appreciation value of the home.


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[Trail Goer]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Paying cash for a home right now with rates as low as they are is really financially foolish. If you have enough to pay cash, I’m not saying to get am 80% mortgage but consider 50-60% down and invest the rest. You will end up making money on the mortgage.


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You are absolutely right. According to Dave Ramsey, paying off all your mortgage before you start investing is a bad idea.
http://https://www.daveramsey.com/bl...ave-retirement

[dickiej]

Unless you're in your sixties....my wife and I are 67 and have no mortgage, no car payments and no credit card debt...we can live on $2500.00/ month for food, utilities, taxes and insurance....we sleep like babies.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I will be interested to see how those purchasing in the area, seeking "space," will do long-term without amenities and with a long winter. I'm thinking in a year or two, we may see a fair amount of those people retreating back to city life. As flylady said above, though, there is the very real chance that these people have reevaluated what's important in life and, like many of us, have settled on the lake/country(ish) lifestyle.

I do think the bubble will burst at some point, though. I mean, I NEED it to so's I can fit Jettie Two into my budget!

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For me, too many of the new people want more amenities. We had neighborhoods built in the 70's with septics. When they all started to fail, there was pressure for sewer, with taxpayer support. Same for street lights and sidewalks. The list goes on. (Artificial turf!) If your family moves every 7 years you sort of take some of this stuff for granted. For us, many things that used to be done by volunteers, newcomers expect the city (taxpayers) to pay for and the volunteer attitude goes away. I hope when we can get out again that remote work and flex time will bring back community spirit.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Trail Goer

You are absolutely right. According to Dave Ramsey, paying off all your mortgage before you start investing is a bad idea.
http://https://www.daveramsey.com/bl...ave-retirement

According to Dave Ramsey, I shouldn't have taken school loans to become a teacher. Life is pretty damn good for us. Though I like some of his ideas, I think he often overlooks life in favor of avoiding debt.

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[joey2665]

Originally Posted by dickiej

Unless you're in your sixties....my wife and I are 67 and have no mortgage, no car payments and no credit card debt...we can live on $2500.00/ month for food, utilities, taxes and insurance....we sleep like babies.

Understood. Remember though my point being the cash not used to purchase the home is still there just in an account appreciating at a faster rate than your mortgage rate. I am definitely not saying to spend the cash not used to purchase the house. Put it in an account that is NOT to be touched. You have to be very disciplined but even at 67 your life expectancy is a minimum of 10 plus years which for 100,000 at 5% would have a value of 162,000.00 and extra 62k is nothing to sneeze e


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[winterh]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I understand the thought process but if you put the portion you are financing in a managed broker account and don’t touch it it is the same thing and your making money probably about 5% per year over and above the 3% mortgage and for 20-30 years you are talking about serious money. Plus your still getting the full appreciation value of the home.


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Isn't there a saying about past performance not being a guarantee of future results.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by winterh

Isn't there a saying about past performance not being a guarantee of future results.

Saying are just that there is no factual data behind it.

Look at the market over any 10 year period. I am being conservative with an 8% ROI. Then I netted it out to 5% after subtracting the 3% mortgage.

This is coming from some that is not an aggressive investor nor do I give aggressive adviser. IMO this is just a sound use of funds capitalizing on both the real estate and stock market.


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[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I understand the strategy but it is a financial error. It’s pretty easy to be approved for a mortgage when your putting 50-60% down.
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Not necessarily.

Mortgage approvals are based on the debt to income ratio of the applicant. Your credit score and cash flow are most important. That is how all of the loans sold in the secondary market to banks like Bank of America, GMAC, Etc work.

If you put 60% down but have a debt to income ratio in the 60% range there is no way you will get a mortgage.

The guidelines don't care how much you put down or how much you have in the bank. If you put 50% down and have two million in the bank you would not qualify unless your $2 million was invested at a rate of return that would qualify you or you have other sources of income..

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Not necessarily.

Mortgage approvals are based on the debt to income ratio of the applicant. Your credit score and cash flow are most important. That is how all of the loans sold in the secondary market to banks like Bank of America, GMAC, Etc work.

If you put 60% down but have a debt to income ratio in the 60% range there is no way you will get a mortgage.

The guidelines don't care how much you put down or how much you have in the bank. If you put 50% down and have two million in the bank you would not qualify unless your $2 million was invested at a rate of return that would qualify you or you have other sources of income..

Your going down a completely different road. All the assumption in the above scenarios are strictly based on cash vs some % of mortgage and assuming approval isn’t an issue.


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[TiltonBB]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Your going down a completely different road. All the assumption in the above scenarios are strictly based on cash vs some % of mortgage and assuming approval isn’t an issue.

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Actually no. Your post said: It’s pretty easy to be approved for a mortgage when your (sic) putting 50-60% down.

My point is that the down payment has nothing to do with the approval. Mortgage approvals are not based on how much you put down. Anything over 20% down payment is subject to the same approval process and that is primarily about credit, debt to income, security of that income, and the value of the subject property.

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by Susie Cougar

In my neighborhood, we have resales as well as new homes being built every day. The realtors say that over 70% of the new sales are paid in cash. They said that if you can pay in cash you have an advantage over those who are looking for a mortgage approval or any other contingencies. Buyers who are using cash are waiving everything else so they can have a fast sale.

As mentioned above. Just because you make a "Cash" offer doesn't mean you have to pay from a "cash" source. You're just removing the contingency of getting a loan. I've bought that way a couple times, knowing I'd have no issue getting a loan. But some sellers are smart and also want proof of funds. But it does not mean you need to use those funds you used for proof.

One thing people don't realize is almost all the water front property requires a septic site assessment by closing. If you made a cash offer and didn't get a loan you can just reject the site assessment (even if it's good).

We looked very carefully at actual prices being asked, what they actually sold for, and town appraised values. Of course market price is almost always above town appraisal value. But most of the high priced homes (in our range, under $2.0 million) didn't sell for more than around 60% over town appraisal. Anyone asking like 100% or more over town appraisal typically won't sell or actual price will be much lower.

Folks are crazy, but not quite insane. Normally Market is around 30-40% over appraisal. Right now it's around 60% (but not all that many houses sold that high). The data was lagging by a month because you have to wait until it's closed. I forget what we had up to. I think end of July (Closed in Sept). It may have got worse in August.

We also did a trend line (over 2-3 years of all sales) and it wasn't as steep as you might think and pretty linear. Just lots of transactions.

Asking price, as always, means nothing.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

Actually no. Your post said: It’s pretty easy to be approved for a mortgage when your (sic) putting 50-60% down.

My point is that the down payment has nothing to do with the approval. Mortgage approvals are not based on how much you put down. Anything over 20% down payment is subject to the same approval process and that is primarily about credit, debt to income, security of that income, and the value of the subject property.

Yes it does. Down payment has everything to do with approval. It’s usually the largest debt number in the debt to equity ratio and cash flow ratio


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[Wentworth06]

Loan repayment ability is number one on any loan committee list.
Down payment is number 2
Where down payment came from number 3
What other collateral can we get from you as an abundance of caution
Credit score matters .but lots of wealthy people do not pay on time and have 650 credit.
FDIC.bank auditors are looking at a loan when they review the banks at audit time just like I described.
Homes that show pending and come back on are not always a issue with inspection. I suspect a lot are not qualifying
Like my friend mswego above said a cash offer close ASAP.has worked for me in the past.
If your able have a good line of credit for buying opportunities it really helps in getting a something locked up and closed

[Trail Goer]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

According to Dave Ramsey, I shouldn't have taken school loans to become a teacher. Life is pretty damn good for us. Though I like some of his ideas, I think he often overlooks life in favor of avoiding debt.

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If you have taken his Financial Peace University course, you would understand that getting out of debt is only part of the battle. He teaches you how to stay out of debt and build wealth, while also teaching you how to give. I've taken that course, then took it again a few years later as a refresher. My wife and I haven't used a credit card in over 4 years.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Trail Goer

If you have taken his Financial Peace University course, you would understand that getting out of debt is only part of the battle. He teaches you how to stay out of debt and build wealth, while also teaching you how to give. I've taken that course, then took it again a few years later as a refresher. My wife and I haven't used a credit card in over 4 years.

I use my Discover card for every large purchase and use the cashback to fund my BBQ habit. Who's the genius now?!

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[8gv]

I am thankful that Dave Ramsey does his thing.

While I realize there are other ways of conducting one's finances in a responsible way, his teaching and preaching has been great for my three adult kids.

They each have budgets and stick to them.

It is not unusual for them to tell me about a friend who has bought a vehicle or house that they cannot afford.

They brag about their thriftiness and savings!

[WinnisquamZ]

Big fan of Dave Ramsey. Using his principles, the wife and I retired at 60 debt free. Would be living large if not for the Laconia taxes!


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[garysanfran]

Using debt to leverage one's life style is where I disagree with Ramsey. If I had to save to pay cash for the properties I own, I would not own the properties I own. The key is to have the cash flow to support your debt.

[Trail Goer]

Your mistaking his message. Most people cannot buy a house or even buy property in cash but if you do, you would be foolish to put it all down at once. If you instead invest in that money, you will make more back in interest than you will spending on interest to your mortgage. Now a mortgage is still debt, so yes you want to pay it off as quickly as possible but investments come first. Checkout his 7 baby steps: http://https://www.everydollar.com/b...asy-baby-steps

[Descant]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

Using debt to leverage one's life style is where I disagree with Ramsey. If I had to save to pay cash for the properties I own, I would not own the properties I own. The key is to have the cash flow to support your debt.

First, I agree with Gary.
Second, I have no knowledge of Dave Ramsey, but if you own only one house and have only one job/business,. risking that house on investments is not a good plan. Interest rates/quality bonds right now are close to zero. In 2008/2009 the markets tumbled and it wasn't just a two year correction. It took 8 years to START to recover. Can you hold out for 8-10 years without depleting capital?
If you have only one house, one job (source of income) and back up assets that produce less income (not unrealized capital gains (losses) than the monthly mortgage payment for three years, when the economy turns, you could be zero job and zero house, and not much in other assets. Talk to your elders who lived through the depression: put a safe roof over your head, no debt, and then start doing "investments." Obviously, some of this can be in parallel and you want to max a 401(k).

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Descant

First, I agree with Gary.

Second, I have no knowledge of Dave Ramsey, but if you own only one house and have only one job/business,. risking that house on investments is not a good plan. Interest rates/quality bonds right now are close to zero. In 2008/2009 the markets tumbled and it wasn't just a two year correction. It took 8 years to START to recover. Can you hold out for 8-10 years without depleting capital?

If you have only one house, one job (source of income) and back up assets that produce less income (not unrealized capital gains (losses) than the monthly mortgage payment for three years, when the economy turns, you could be zero job and zero house, and not much in other assets. Talk to your elders who lived through the depression: put a safe roof over your head, no debt, and then start doing "investments." Obviously, some of this can be in parallel and you want to max a 401(k).

It’s an extremely conservative financial plan which is fine just wanted to correct you. After the 2008/2009 mortgage crisis it did not take 8 years to recover the real estate and stock market. It really only took 5 years to exceed levels prior to the crisis.


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[Biggd]

The reason most pay cash for a piece of property today is to get the upper hand because most properties around here get multiple offers over asking price.
Not tying the sale to a mortgage or inspection is more likely to see the passing go through.
Many sales fall apart today because the appraisal doesn't come in high enough to support the mortgage with 20% down so the prospective buyer has to come up with a larger down payment.
If all else is equal the cash buyer wins out, then they get a mortgage after the sale is completed.
My son just purchased a house this way. There are a lot of people out there with the means to pay cash.
My son inlaw is a realtor and he tells me all the time that deals fall through today because the appraisal comes in much lower than the sale price.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by Biggd

The reason most pay cash for a piece of property today is to get the upper hand because most properties around here get multiple offers over asking price.
Not tying the sale to a mortgage or inspection is more likely to see the passing go through.
Many sales fall apart today because the appraisal doesn't come in high enough to support the mortgage with 20% down so the prospective buyer has to come up with a larger down payment.
If all else is equal the cash buyer wins out, then they get a mortgage after the sale is completed.
My son just purchased a house this way. There are a lot of people out there with the means to pay cash.
My son inlaw is a realtor and he tells me all the time that deals fall through today because the appraisal comes in much lower than the sale price.

Great idea. That’s the best of both worlds. Pay cash for the negotiating leverage then pull cash back out after the purchase to be invested wisely.


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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Great idea. That’s the best of both worlds. Pay cash for the negotiating leverage then pull cash back out after the purchase to be invested wisely.


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Of course a cash buyer can still back out of a deal but once you sign that P&S and have to come up with a sizable amount of money, usually 5% that is non refundable, it's unlikely they will back out.

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by garysanfran

Using debt to leverage one's life style is where I disagree with Ramsey. If I had to save to pay cash for the properties I own, I would not own the properties I own. The key is to have the cash flow to support your debt.

Exactly. Stay within your means and leverage the tools available.

What ever you do, don’t leave all your money in cash or you’ll find yourself way behind.

I’ve done many mortgages over the years but they were all paid off by around age 50.

I certainly respect anyone staying within their means through a “cash” life style.
I have no problem with a credit card. But we always limited ourselves to ONE credit card.

I also don’t believe in taking out larger mortgages so you can invest more. I think a balance is best. Most of our mortgages were low number of years and we avoided 30 year ones (if we could).

BTW watch out for inflation. Inflation is your friend if you have high debt.

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by Biggd

Of course a cash buyer can still back out of a deal but once you sign that P&S and have to come up with a sizable amount of money, usually 5% that is non refundable, it's unlikely they will back out.

It is very rare a deposit is not refunded.

It all depends on the reason the deal didn’t go through and there are many reasons $$$.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

It is very rare a deposit is not refunded.

It all depends on the reason the deal didn’t go through and there are many reasons $$$.

In todays world of multiple offers, you make it non refundable in the P&S.
In my sons case he didn't make the offer on his new house until the buyers of his house signed the P&S and came up with a 50K non refundable deposit.
They either sign it or they don't. In this market the seller has the upper hand.

[MAXUM]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

Exactly. Stay within your means and leverage the tools available.

What ever you do, don’t leave all your money in cash or you’ll find yourself way behind.

I’ve done many mortgages over the years but they were all paid off by around age 50.

I certainly respect anyone staying within their means through a “cash” life style.
I have no problem with a credit card. But we always limited ourselves to ONE credit card.

I also don’t believe in taking out larger mortgages so you can invest more. I think a balance is best. Most of our mortgages were low number of years and we avoided 30 year ones (if we could).

BTW watch out for inflation. Inflation is your friend if you have high debt.

Keep in mind though that Dave Ramsey is targeting people who are financially inept or undisciplined. The majority of people out there are - few actually admit to it. Debt can be OK to leverage sometimes, but it's not always about cash flow - today you may be fine but at any time that can dry up or change radically. Recent events can illustrate that when a virus comes along and the economy is literally shut down for a couple of months. Who saw that coming? Both businesses and individuals took a massive hit, question is how many are prepared to weather a storm like that? Even if you had a warning of a month, 6 months or a year to prepare. If all your inflow is already spoken for to service debt you're screwed.

The other thing that Ramsey rightly pushes is savings - something that shockingly few do. You don't have to be rich to put some money away but you have to be disciplined. How many are truly prepared for retirement and have a nest egg of substantial value to live off of. I can tell you in my age group (40s) most of my peers have little or nothing. That is scary. Oh they have all the stuff, all on perpetual payment plans that have no end and these folks are living paycheck to pay check wedged to 100% on the payments of all that stuff they really don't own and paying a premium to do so.

Conceptually I like what he teaches and have put to use some of his ideas however every situation is different and as such each and every individual requires a financial plan tailored to their specific situation with an emphasis on saving for the future and unforeseen life events that do happen.

[fatlazyless]

No one here ever talks about the 2018 imposed federal income tax limit of ten thousand dollars on deducting your state income and local property taxes from your federal income tax. Starting with tax year-2018, due on April 15, 2019, the deductible "salt" or state and local taxes, was reduced from no limit down to ten thousand dollars/year.

So, instead of getting a tax deduction for all your home owner property taxes, you have to pay with "real" money on the amount over ten thousand dollars.

Apparently, this new limit seems to have no effect on the upward rising purchase price that buyers will pay. There's so much demand that the ten thousand dollar limit makes no difference to potential NH second home buyers who also have a primary home in states like NH, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ ..... all states with high property taxes.

With a yearly Wolfeboro property tax bill of 108,770-dollars, the 20 Wyman Drive, Wolfeboro house with the asking price of ten million dollars sure seems like a whopper property tax bill ...... $108,770 ...... or $298/day, or $8940/month. Who knows, maybe a religious organization can buy it and make it into a legitimate summer camp for kids, or a school. It includes 6.2 acres of land.

[tis]

There was also something like 3.8% to help pay for Obamacare. Was that on a sale of a house? I have forgotten.......
No guess not. It is a tax on net investment income for people making over $200,000.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

No one here ever talks about the 2018 imposed federal income tax limit of ten thousand dollars on deducting your state income and local property taxes from your federal income tax. Starting with tax year-2018, due on April 15, 2019, the deductible "salt" or state and local taxes, was reduced from no limit down to ten thousand dollars/year.

So, instead of getting a tax deduction for all your home owner property taxes, you have to pay with "real" money on the amount over ten thousand dollars.

Apparently, this new limit seems to have no effect on the upward rising purchase price that buyers will pay. There's so much demand that the ten thousand dollar limit makes no difference to potential NH second home buyers who also have a primary home in states like NH, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ ..... all states with high property taxes.

With a yearly Wolfeboro property tax bill of 108,770-dollars, the 20 Wyman Drive, Wolfeboro house with the asking price of ten million dollars sure seems like a whopper property tax bill ...... $108,770 ...... or $298/day, or $8940/month. Who knows, maybe a religious organization can buy it and make it into a legitimate summer camp for kids, or a school. It includes 6.2 acres of land.

You’re only telling one side of the story yes the tax is limited to $10,000 but you’re leaving out the fact that the tax brackets were lowered significantly. So leaving state taxes out for the moment your federal tax rate still went down even though you lost the deduction over $10,000.


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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by joey2665

You’re only telling one side of the story yes the tax is limited to $10,000 but you’re leaving out the fact that the tax brackets were lowered significantly. So leaving state taxes out for the moment your federal tax rate still went down even though you lost the deduction over $10,000.


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If you're rich--high income, plenty of stock holdings and capital gains income--you're way ahead on the Trump tax cuts.

But if you're kind of in the middle economically, but with high property taxes, it was a mixed bag. This, combined with an increase in the national debt that may be $2 trillion(!), is why most folks did not benefit from them.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

If you're rich--high income, plenty of stock holdings and capital gains income--you're way ahead on the Trump tax cuts.

But if you're kind of in the middle economically, but with high property taxes, it was a mixed bag. This, combined with an increase in the national debt that may be $2 trillion(!), is why most folks did not benefit from them.

Absolutely. I get a couple hundred bucks more a year, but the deficit will take out much more from my kids than I ever benefited.

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[Denny Crane]

Originally Posted by MAXUM

The other thing that Ramsey rightly pushes is savings - something that shockingly few do. You don't have to be rich to put some money away but you have to be disciplined. How many are truly prepared for retirement and have a nest egg of substantial value to live off of. I can tell you in my age group (40s) most of my peers have little or nothing. That is scary. Oh they have all the stuff, all on perpetual payment plans that have no end and these folks are living paycheck to pay check wedged to 100% on the payments of all that stuff they really don't own and paying a premium to do so.

Maxum,
Great point. On that note a great book I read about 15 years ago and again last year, The Millionaire Next Door(Thomas Stanley) looks at the statistics, profiles, and habits of American millionaires, and it's not the family driving the latest SUV with golf and health club memberships, or wearing vineyard vines clothing. Often it's the low profile neighbor, contractor, or teacher, who lives within their means, holds onto vehicles for 10 years, and is diligent about saving and investing. Each of my kids got a copy for Christmas last year!

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

If you're rich--high income, plenty of stock holdings and capital gains income--you're way ahead on the Trump tax cuts.

But if you're kind of in the middle economically, but with high property taxes, it was a mixed bag. This, combined with an increase in the national debt that may be $2 trillion(!), is why most folks did not benefit from them.

Sorry I disagree. Based on the over 250 returns I prepared last year 90% paid a lower tax rate than previous years and mind you most are in New York with a high income and property tax rate.


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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Sorry I disagree. Based on the over 250 returns I prepared last year 90% paid a lower tax rate than previous years and mid you most are in New York with a high income and property tax rate.


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I said "mixed bag". As Think points out, he's ahead by a whisker, not enough to care today. I don't know anybody who thinks it's a great plan. My rich friends don't really care about the extra money, my middle band friends got hardly a thing, all recognize we'll be paying the piper later.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

I said "mixed bag". As Think points out, he's ahead by a whisker, not enough to care today. I don't know anybody who thinks it's a great plan. My rich friends don't really care about the extra money, my middle band friends got hardly a thing, all recognize we'll be paying the piper later.

Your rich friends don’t care about extra money? I honestly highly doubt that in my experience of of 35 years as a CPA I have always found the richer they are the more they care.


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[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Your rich friends don’t care about extra money? I honestly highly doubt that in my experience of of 35 years as a CPA I have always found the richer they are the more they care.


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"Extra money" in general is always nice, and I'm sure 100% of your clients want to reduce their bills during the time they are spending with you on their returns. But that's not quite what I'm getting at.

As I'm sure you know, the Trump tax cuts have been a political flop. I think this is because most people believe the individual benefit they received was insignificant to them personally, while it saddled us with a gigantic extra debt.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

"Extra money" in general is always nice, and I'm sure 100% of your clients want to reduce their bills during the time they are spending with you on their returns. But that's not quite what I'm getting at.

As I'm sure you know, the Trump tax cuts have been a political flop. I think this is because most people believe the individual benefit they received was insignificant to them personally, while it saddled us with a gigantic extra debt.

I will agree to disagree on your perception of the tax cuts. Obviously my experience with my clients had been much different than your experience


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[Top-Water]

Originally Posted by fatlazyless

No one here ever talks about the 2018 imposed federal income tax limit of ten thousand dollars on deducting your state income and local property taxes from your federal income tax. Starting with tax year-2018, due on April 15, 2019, the deductible "salt" or state and local taxes, was reduced from no limit down to ten thousand dollars/year.

So, instead of getting a tax deduction for all your home owner property taxes, you have to pay with "real" money on the amount over ten thousand dollars.

Apparently, this new limit seems to have no effect on the upward rising purchase price that buyers will pay. There's so much demand that the ten thousand dollar limit makes no difference to potential NH second home buyers who also have a primary home in states like NH, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ ..... all states with high property taxes.

With a yearly Wolfeboro property tax bill of 108,770-dollars, the 20 Wyman Drive, Wolfeboro house with the asking price of ten million dollars sure seems like a whopper property tax bill ...... $108,770 ...... or $298/day, or $8940/month. Who knows, maybe a religious organization can buy it and make it into a legitimate summer camp for kids, or a school. It includes 6.2 acres of land.

Debated at length in this thread along with your insane comments

https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums...=federal+limit

Please don't bring up this stupidity again. "From the thread referenced above that you started" Not everyone agrees with your insane logic and factually inaccurate accounting.

Originally Posted by webmaster

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned that the standard deduction for a married couple has doubled to $24,000 for 2018 (add $1,300 for each spouse age 65 or older). Even though the tax deduction is capped at $10,000 that additional $12,000+ standard deduction will help offset additional taxes that can't be deducted any more. That should help a lot of people. I guess we'll see since none of us have actually done our taxes yet for this year under the new tax plan.

[Descant]

I agree with Joey, more from an overview than personal experience. BUT, personal experience, the increased standard deduction was a better deal by several thousand dollars than collecting all those receipts and I benefited. Like many, my income has been erratic in the last couple of years, but overall, I have benefited significantly from improved economic conditions. As a retiree, I'm pleased to see the Dow go from 18000 to 28000 in last four years.
This may not be accurate, but it makes me worry very little: If I earn $100,000 and have $25,000 in debt, that is acceptable. If I increase my debt by $3 trillion, but I increase the GDP by $4X, that may still be acceptable. (National) Debt is only significant as it relates to income. A stand alone number means little to me.

[Biggd]

I'm just as happy as everyone else that has money in the markets but it's a false sense of security. Not everone has a 401K or a retirement account and many people are living pay check to pay check. Those are the people that need help, not the people that have the most already. Most of the tax breaks have made the wealthy wealthier but haven't done much for the average person short of a few extra dollars in their pay check. Small businesses and their employees are struggling while people that own big companies are grabbing the stimulas money and buying new boats and new cars with it.
I'm probably in the minority here but I would be willing to pay a higher income tax rate to see lower skilled workers make a livable wage.


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[Descant]

Originally Posted by Biggd

I'm just as happy as everyone else that has money in the markets but it's a false sense of security. Not everone has a 401K or a retirement account and many people are living pay check to pay check. Those are the people that need help, not the people that have the most already. Most of the tax breaks have made the wealthy wealthier but haven't done much for the average person short of a few extra dollars in their pay check. Small businesses and their employees are struggling while people that own big companies are grabbing the stimulas money and buying new boats and new cars with it. I'm probably in the minority here but I would be willing to pay a higher income tax rate to see lower skilled workers make a livable wage.

The intent of stimulus money is to help people buy things in a consumer economy. If Congress is giving stimulus to the wrong people, we need new people in Congress.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Descant

(National) Debt is only significant as it relates to income. A stand alone number means little to me.

Good point! Unfortunately, national debt as a percent of GDP is also climbing, and it's expected to go much higher. Some said that these tax cuts would pay for themselves, but that has not happened

[Descant]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

Good point! Unfortunately, national debt as a percent of GDP is also climbing, and it's expected to go much higher. Some said that these tax cuts would pay for themselves, but that has not happened

It's a slow process. If we did not ave the Covid interruption, I think the analysis would be more what was expected when the cuts were implemented. Any further comment would border on political, so , 'nuff said.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Descant

It's a slow process. If we did not ave the Covid interruption, I think the analysis would be more what was expected when the cuts were implemented. Any further comment would border on political, so , 'nuff said.

I wish you'd look at the numbers you directed the rest of us to check. In 2016, the year before the tax cut, the deficit was 3.1% of GDP. In 2017 we went to 3.4%. In 2018, 3.8%. In 2019, 4.6%. We were expected to be 4.8% before COVID-19 hit. So basically our ratio climb 55% (4.8/3.1) pre COVID-19.

I used annual deficit instead of total debt because it's the current budget that we have responsibility for, but the total debt to GDP numbers show exactly the same thing.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

I wish you'd look at the numbers you directed the rest of us to check. In 2016, the year before the tax cut, the deficit was 3.1% of GDP. In 2017 we went to 3.4%. In 2018, 3.8%. In 2019, 4.6%. We were expected to be 4.8% before COVID-19 hit. So basically our ratio climb 55% (4.8/3.1) pre COVID-19.

I used annual deficit instead of total debt because it's the current budget that we have responsibility for, but the total debt to GDP numbers show exactly the same thing.

Thanks for that info. Probalbly clsoer to accurate than my guesstimate. From my perspective, I am so much better off this year than I was in 2015, facts are hard to accept.
Apologies, but political statement follows: I'm supporting the party who will leave me alone.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by Descant

Thanks for that info. Probalbly clsoer to accurate than my guesstimate. From my perspective, I am so much better off this year than I was in 2015, facts are hard to accept.
Apologies, but political statement follows: I'm supporting the party who will leave me alone.

I've mentioned this before, but I can't help but think this forum has a sizeable amount of sample and confirmation bias. The most active posters, including myself, are people who are doing well in general. We own boats, jetskis, and other watercraft—toys typically purchased after needs are taken care of—and many own second homes. Quite a few here own multiple of both.

That's not the American norm at all. And, in less than ten years—as 06JuicedGTO recently echoed—that dream for many has sailed.

For the sizeable portion of America—my children included—it will undoubtedly be harder to achieve what we have achieved without a systemic change or a leg-up from family. I would never have been able to be where I am in today's system.

I'm voting for the party that lends a hand to those sinking rather than watch them drown, because I was a struggling swimmer once myself.

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