Nolans

[Boundary]

Originally Posted by tis

I agree. Shingles, glues, hardware, sawmills. It is everywhere.

I'll throw in my 2 cents based on the professional "services" industry in Boston which is also struggling to find talent and leading to labor shortages / overworking current employees, etc. Starting pay is not far off from 6 figures now for a professional services job in boston. And I fully understand it will be different across markets where people will have varying necessities and levels of motivation to work. But for jobs gated behind any sort of qualification (CPA, CFA, bar, etc) there are two easily bucketed main scenarios playing out:

1. Younger folks are making lateral moves to industry or in house jobs/smaller firms that are much closer to 9-5 and away from the big firms. This is leading to an overall decrease in hours worked across the industry and the "shortage" at these firms is delaying projects and driving wages up. Without crazy high expensive office space / entertainment & benefits costs many smaller firms and new players are offering enticing pay packages alongside work life balance if you don't desire to be the 1%.

2. People who are further along in their career many of whom have children and whose lives have been disrupted are getting stretched thin with the additional attention necessary for family. In addition to that, anyone who has been working for 6 years or more has held a great paying job and experienced a unequaled bull run in just about every investment and asset class you can imagine. These people are deciding they can sell the inner city house for eye shattering sums and move else where. Taking an early retirement with literally millions in their 401k/savings as well as home equity while maybe 1 parent continues to works.

My only point being there are labor shortages in every industry. High paying as well as restaurant / retail. Covid really changed things for a lot of people.

Call me crazy, but one of the biggest changes i think driving this whole labor shortage is the imbalance in time vs. money. How would you convince someone that it makes more sense to work a 50 hour a week job or a highly stressful job for 15-20k more over a 32 hour a week job?

I know the lakes region is still relatively affordable, so 15-20k may make the difference for some - but in more expensive markets like Boston an extra 20k a year buys you nothing if you are already making good money. The restaurants you go out to eat at are the same, the house you buy is the same, maybe paid off 1 or 2 years early. I think the disruption in the labor force will be shaking out for a few years to come.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Boundary

Call me crazy, but one of the biggest changes i think driving this whole labor shortage is the imbalance in time vs. money. How would you convince someone that it makes more sense to work a 50 hour a week job or a highly stressful job for 15-20k more over a 32 hour a week job?

I know the lakes region is still relatively affordable, so 15-20k may make the difference for some - but in more expensive markets like Boston an extra 20k a year buys you nothing if you are already making good money. The restaurants you go out to eat at are the same, the house you buy is the same, maybe paid off 1 or 2 years early. I think the disruption in the labor force will be shaking out for a few years to come.

It's not that either the 32 hour person or 50 hour person is crazy or irrational, it's that they have different goals. The 50 hour person is aiming for 2-3 or 10(!) times the reward in the future. I'm not saying one is better or worse, it depends on the person/circumstances. It could be that there are fewer people who believe the sacrifice is worth the potential reward

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

It's not that either the 32 hour person or 50 hour person is crazy or irrational, it's that they have different goals. The 50 hour person is aiming for 2-3 or 10(!) times the reward in the future. I'm not saying one is better or worse, it depends on the person/circumstances. It could be that there are fewer people who believe the sacrifice is worth the potential reward

Over the past 18 months they had a realization that there is more to life than working 24/7 and that there are things they were missing out on by working so much.

[phoenix]

I am ok with the trade off assuming people understand that spending has to drop also. Also dont be envious of someone who choses to work longer and has ability to havr a bigger house, kids in private school etc. life is a series of tradeoffs

[John Mercier]

That has been going on for awhile.
Some management is now finding that work environment is playing much more of a key role in acquiring and retaining skilled employees. I think the tech industry new about it for years... but it seems to be everywhere now.

For the next several years, we will have more Americans turning 65 than turning 18, so it is going to get tough.

The dichotomy that your speaking about hits only some of us. A couple years ago they were noticing a hygge movement, but cottagecore hadn't really hit its stride.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

That has been going on for awhile.
Some management is now finding that work environment is playing much more of a key role in acquiring and retaining skilled employees. I think the tech industry new about it for years... but it seems to be everywhere now.

Though people in the tech industry--at least what we think of as the tech industry of hard core programmers with stock options, ping pong tables, and t shirts to the office--work ferociously hard

[John Mercier]

I wasn't suggesting that they were not working hard. Just that to keep skilled labor requires management to focus intently on the well-being of that labor - something that industry understood before the rest of us.

[VitaBene]

Originally Posted by Biggd

Over the past 18 months they had a realization that there is more to life than working 24/7 and that there are things they were missing out on by working so much.

until he bottom drops out and their soft company lays them off- it will happen... again

[Descant]

My expectation is that, when schools reopen on a reliable schedule, people will re-enter the workforce and things will even out again. This will take 2-3 years. In the meantime,. the birthrate continues to be low. Even if it changes, it will tale 20 years for new babies to enter the workforce.
As much as we may be apprehensive about "illegal" aliens, we may need them in these entry level positions. Currently , Afghans who speak English should be highly employable. 'Nuff said.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by Descant

My expectation is that, when schools reopen on a reliable schedule, people will re-enter the workforce and things will even out again. This will take 2-3 years. In the meantime,. the birthrate continues to be low. Even if it changes, it will tale 20 years for new babies to enter the workforce.
As much as we may be apprehensive about "illegal" aliens, we may need them in these entry level positions. Currently , Afghans who speak English should be highly employable. 'Nuff said.

It is the training and knowledge that takes a long time. The employees, other than retirees, are not leaving the workforce... just taking their skill set with them to an employer that provides the right ratio of pay/benefits, hours, and working environment for them to be happier.

When employers have the upper hand, many employees will do things they are not passionate about to make a living. We joke that this is the ''You will pay me just enough not to quit, and I will work just hard enough not to be fired'' model. That model is currently broken.

So my replacement is coming along quickly... but there may not be the passion that I had for the job. Hard to know for sure.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by VitaBene

until he bottom drops out and their soft company lays them off- it will happen... again

I would guess that many of them changed jobs for a more suitable schedule.

[Biggd]

Originally Posted by VitaBene

until he bottom drops out and their soft company lays them off- it will happen... again

Yes, what goes around, comes around. We all will have to deal with that in our own way when it happens.

[Heaven]

Originally Posted by Boundary

I'll throw in my 2 cents based on the professional "services" industry in Boston which is also struggling to find talent and leading to labor shortages / overworking current employees, etc. Starting pay is not far off from 6 figures now for a professional services job in boston. And I fully understand it will be different across markets where people will have varying necessities and levels of motivation to work. But for jobs gated behind any sort of qualification (CPA, CFA, bar, etc) there are two easily bucketed main scenarios playing out:

1. Younger folks are making lateral moves to industry or in house jobs/smaller firms that are much closer to 9-5 and away from the big firms. This is leading to an overall decrease in hours worked across the industry and the "shortage" at these firms is delaying projects and driving wages up. Without crazy high expensive office space / entertainment & benefits costs many smaller firms and new players are offering enticing pay packages alongside work life balance if you don't desire to be the 1%.

2. People who are further along in their career many of whom have children and whose lives have been disrupted are getting stretched thin with the additional attention necessary for family. In addition to that, anyone who has been working for 6 years or more has held a great paying job and experienced a unequaled bull run in just about every investment and asset class you can imagine. These people are deciding they can sell the inner city house for eye shattering sums and move else where. Taking an early retirement with literally millions in their 401k/savings as well as home equity while maybe 1 parent continues to works.

My only point being there are labor shortages in every industry. High paying as well as restaurant / retail. Covid really changed things for a lot of people.

Call me crazy, but one of the biggest changes i think driving this whole labor shortage is the imbalance in time vs. money. How would you convince someone that it makes more sense to work a 50 hour a week job or a highly stressful job for 15-20k more over a 32 hour a week job?

I know the lakes region is still relatively affordable, so 15-20k may make the difference for some - but in more expensive markets like Boston an extra 20k a year buys you nothing if you are already making good money. The restaurants you go out to eat at are the same, the house you buy is the same, maybe paid off 1 or 2 years early. I think the disruption in the labor force will be shaking out for a few years to come.

An for some professions, this shortage isn't new. . . it started 5 years ago. I have two almost 70's people working for me. When they decide to stop, there is no one with the needed training to step in.