It's gonna be a long winter...

[MeredithMan]

...The propane man just came to fill the tank today. First fill up since last May. 285 gallons. Almost choked when I saw the delivery ticket/invoice...over a thousand bucks! $3.81 per gallon. On our last delivery back in May, it was $2.20 - something per gallon. BOHICA....

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

...The propane man just came to fill the tank today. First fill up since last May. 285 gallons. Almost choked when I saw the delivery ticket/invoice...over a thousand bucks! $3.81 per gallon. On our last delivery back in May, it was $2.20 - something per gallon. BOHICA....

Best bet is always to join one of the many purchasing groups for the best locked in price for the season which is usually done in May or June. I’m locked in at 1.899 for the season.


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[MeredithMan]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

...The propane man just came to fill the tank today. First fill up since last May. 285 gallons. Almost choked when I saw the delivery ticket/invoice...over a thousand bucks! $3.81 per gallon. On our last delivery back in May, it was $2.20 - something per gallon. BOHICA....

Wow, good for you! That's an excellent price. I've only done the pre-buy once, back in 2019-2020. Paid a boatload of money up front, and then still had to pay for each delivery, (albeit at the lower price per gallon), and then they applied my large up-front payment to the last couple of deliveries of the season, only after I called to remind them.

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

Wow, good for you! That's an excellent price. I've only done the pre-buy once, back in 2019-2020. Paid a boatload of money up front, and then still had to pay for each delivery, (albeit at the lower price per gallon), and then they applied my large up-front payment to the last couple of deliveries of the season, only after I called to remind them.

These aren’t paying upfront these are discount buying groups to just lock in the price. Sometimes you have to guarantee gallons and there is a small annual fee to join usually less than 100.00


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[Descant]

Originally Posted by joey2665

These aren’t paying upfront these are discount buying groups to just lock in the price. Sometimes you have to guarantee gallons and there is a small annual fee to join usually less than 100.00

It's primarily fuel, but some of the commercial members also offer other discounts to members. "Our Town Energy Alliance" is one of the oldest and largest. https://ourtownenergyalliance.com/

[Sue Doe-Nym]

Originally Posted by Descant

It's primarily fuel, but some of the commercial members also offer other discounts to members. "Our Town Energy Alliance" is one of the oldest and largest. https://ourtownenergyalliance.com/

Our last delivery was in June or July at a price of $1.50 per gallon, and we hope that is this season’s price. As Suissevale abutters, we receive their price, which is very helpful.

[SAB1]

What’s the minimum for gallons to get in. Last time I researched I didn’t use enough gas to get in. I’ve got 4 tanks waiting to be filled next week that are at 25%. I guess it’s going to be costly…

[Loub52]

You can get an idea of the going rack rate here prior to calling around. https://www.nh.gov/osi/energy/energy...ices/index.htm

[winterh]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

...The propane man just came to fill the tank today. First fill up since last May. 285 gallons. Almost choked when I saw the delivery ticket/invoice...over a thousand bucks! $3.81 per gallon. On our last delivery back in May, it was $2.20 - something per gallon. BOHICA....

Thank you Brandon!

[bigdog]

Our Town Energy Alliance is a great co-op group which locks in oil & propane prices, by purchasing energy contracts in advance of the heating season.
They service areas in ME, VT and MA. I believe the cut-off for this season was closed July 30 to receive the discount rate, but you can them out for the future.
Here is their website: https://ourtownenergyalliance.com/

Also, Our Town Energy has partnered with Utility Choice Savings, is a registered electric load aggregator, to provide alternate electricity supply to members. Their website is: http://www.otelectricity.com/

[MeredithMan]

Originally Posted by winterh

Thank you Brandon!

Who's Brandon?

[8gv]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

Who's Brandon?

Google "Let's go Brandon"

[MeredithMan]

Originally Posted by 8gv

Google "Let's go Brandon"

I guess I'm not hip with the pop culture Biden metaphors....

[John Mercier]

''Because U.S. LNG exports have grown faster than domestic natural gas production, inventories are lower than average. As of the end of September, EIA estimates that total U.S. natural gas inventories are 5.5% below the five-year (2016–2020) average. EIA forecasts that U.S. inventories of natural gas will begin the winter heating season on November 1 at 3,572 Bcf, or 4.8% below the five-year average. Lower U.S. inventories could contribute to more natural gas price volatility, particularly if any area in the United States experiences a severe cold snap, which makes the price outlook for this winter very uncertain.''

US companies are seeing higher demand for LNG overseas, so their customer base is broader and they can make more exporting.

[SAB1]

$3.79 a gallon on my fill up yesterday.

[BroadHopper]

Don't forget the NIMBYs play into this. No gas lines in their backyards. Lots of gas at the wellheads but no distribution channels. Also, grassroots organizations are against using natural gas. I'd rather stop burning coal and oil and switch to cleaner natural gas for the time being until renewables catch up!

There were plans in the works for decades to switch the Bow plant that burns coal to LNG, but the NIMBYs stop the pipelines from Portsmouth.

[8gv]

So...

Let's say one has a prepaid contract for propane at $1.68 per gallon with enough to cover the heating season.

Did the contracted company lock in a price that allows a profit despite the rising prices that we now see?

If so, did the next company up the line have a contracted price from the well head?

At what point does the communication come out saying "We can no longer honor the contracted price."

Does all of the price escalation fall to the customers that don't have contracts?

Decades ago I recall some oil delivery companies in CT going broke as a result of supplier price increases and fixed price contracts with their customers.

Many of those customers had prepaid contracts and their money evaporated.

After they lost their money, the customers had to go find oil for a much higher price.

Hang on; the seas are about to get rough!

[TiltonBB]

It has already happened in New Hampshire.

In November 2014, Fred Fuller Oil, the largest supplier of home heating oil in New Hampshire, filed for bankruptcy.

In January of 2014 Fuller was inundated with calls from automatic delivery customers who were running low or and running out of oil. At that time Fuller blamed a “perfect storm” of bad circumstances – unseasonably cold weather following a severe storm and a phone system malfunction.

In January, 2015, the state Attorney General’s office set up an emergency hotline due to the volume of customers worried about the status of their pre-paid accounts and lack of oil.

[WinnisquamZ]

FYI, RYMES purchased Fuller and I believe RYMES was just purchased by a company in upstate NY. Delivery only no service


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[ITD]

Originally Posted by MeredithMan

...The propane man just came to fill the tank today. First fill up since last May. 285 gallons. Almost choked when I saw the delivery ticket/invoice...over a thousand bucks! $3.81 per gallon. On our last delivery back in May, it was $2.20 - something per gallon. BOHICA....

[WinnisquamZ]

Let’s go Brandon!


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[camp guy]

In answer to an email I sent Rymes, I received an email clarifying "service". To quote their email, "we still do service just not new installs for the most part."

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by BroadHopper

Don't forget the NIMBYs play into this. No gas lines in their backyards. Lots of gas at the wellheads but no distribution channels. Also, grassroots organizations are against using natural gas. I'd rather stop burning coal and oil and switch to cleaner natural gas for the time being until renewables catch up!

There were plans in the works for decades to switch the Bow plant that burns coal to LNG, but the NIMBYs stop the pipelines from Portsmouth.

Increasing the demand would not lower the price. The price was lower in the past because the means to compress the gas to liquid (LNG) and thus transport it to Europe did not exist in the same capacity.

That capacity now exists, so even though natural gas production is up, it hasn't increased enough to cover the extra level of export.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by 8gv

So...

Let's say one has a prepaid contract for propane at $1.68 per gallon with enough to cover the heating season.

Did the contracted company lock in a price that allows a profit despite the rising prices that we now see?

If so, did the next company up the line have a contracted price from the well head?

At what point does the communication come out saying "We can no longer honor the contracted price."

Does all of the price escalation fall to the customers that don't have contracts?

Decades ago I recall some oil delivery companies in CT going broke as a result of supplier price increases and fixed price contracts with their customers.

Many of those customers had prepaid contracts and their money evaporated.

After they lost their money, the customers had to go find oil for a much higher price.

Hang on; the seas are about to get rough!

They were unregulated at the time. They were allowed to take the pre-buy money and not buy futures contracts to lock in the price. This allowed them to gamble on the price going lower and then keeping the extra. NH RSA 339:79 was adopted to make the practice illegal.

[baygo]

About six hours ago, Jack Dorsey authored a Twitter post That stated America is about to enter into a period of hyper inflation. Can anybody describe what hyper inflation is to me? Thanks.

[Irish mist]

Originally Posted by baygo

About six hours ago, Jack Dorsey authored a Twitter post That stated America is about to enter into a period of hyper inflation. Can anybody describe what hyper inflation is to me? Thanks.

Just remember back to the Carter years & that's what we will be experiencing.

[WinnisquamZ]

After that I always said I don’t care what it costs as long as it’s available. Now I care


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[John Mercier]

When you move a US produced product from only sales in the US to global sales, you will always see the cost rise... the more dramatic the move the higher the price move.

The US is producing more, but it has doubled its exports over the last four years... good for the industry, not so good for consumers.

Everything else is mostly a supply line or demand shock to bring consumers back to reality after so much monetary and fiscal stimulation.

Even for US produced oil - already a global market - the EIA reports that last week US production was up 7.62 percent over a year ago. But the surging economic demand is more than the production increase.

Industries hate bringing on new supply during times like this because if demand returns to normal levels they have an oversupply... equipment and staff have to be right sized, and capital investment goes to waste.

Dorsey doesn't work in an industry that actually produces anything.

[baygo]

Originally Posted by Irish mist

Just remember back to the Carter years & that's what we will be experiencing.

No… Actually Carter was in office during inflation. Hyper inflation took place in Weimer Germany, and Venezuela.

[Neko]

I payed $3.25 Friday

[thinkxingu]

Anyone think it'll be different in spring? I'm wondering if I should fill my camp tank before the winter or wait.

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[John Mercier]

If it is normally lower in the spring, the speculators will push it in that direction. We tend to be creatures of habit. It is why speculators push up raw blend gasoline in the spring just before Memorial day weekend.

That is barring any unforeseen shock in supply or demand.

[Descant]

I agree with John Mercier. Note that by spring your American money will be worth less. Or even worthless.

[John Mercier]

If the price is lower, it will actually mean the money has more purchasing power.
At least as far as propane goes.

Where we may have some issues going forward is oil.
Even though US production is up year-over-year... so moving in the right direction... it is still way below what it was before the shutdown.

That crude covers a lot more than gasoline/diesel, and inventories on those items are either low, or none existent.

[map]

Our last delivery was in March. Still haven’t put the heat on amazingly. Propane tanks 2/100 gallon) are at 40. We have a well insulated new constructed cottage - only 1100 square feet.

We normally don’t use enough propane to get deals and we never lock in prices because we usually do better not locking in, but our residents in our HOA
Community worked out a deal with Rymes for everyone to get something like $2.40 ? per gallon this year (something like that).

For the first time I am glad we locked in.

[TiltonBB]

In a previous home I had three 330 gallon oil tanks installed in the basement. Every year, in July, I called around to get the best cash price to fill them. It was always comforting in February as the price of oil was high, to know I had plenty of oil at a low price.

The current Gilford house operates on propane but I would think increasing capacity and filling during the summer would be a big savings too. I have been too lazy to look into it. Yet.

[LakeDad]

Originally Posted by joey2665

Best bet is always to join one of the many purchasing groups for the best locked in price for the season which is usually done in May or June. I’m locked in at 1.899 for the season.


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Which group are you in?
What are the requirements?

I have 4 heat sources:
Oil: Baseboard water and radiators.
2 Pellet stoves, which I use as the main source.
2 propane heaters in barn/apt above barn
2 mini splits and a central unit that can also heat 3 floors collectively.

I tend to choose by what is most economical, which is almost always pellets, then slow burn oil and propane all season as a supplement. I haven’t used enough propane to get a better price than $299, though when the apt has a renter, use goes way up.


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[Descant]

Originally Posted by TiltonBB

In a previous home I had three 330 gallon oil tanks installed in the basement. Every year, in July, I called around to get the best cash price to fill them. It was always comforting in February as the price of oil was high, to know I had plenty of oil at a low price.

The current Gilford house operates on propane but I would think increasing capacity and filling during the summer would be a big savings too. I have been too lazy to look into it. Yet.

Two thoughts come to mind. Are there regulations about limits on propane storage in residential zones? Do you own the tank, or does the dealer? If the dealer, will they give you a second tank so they can charge you less?

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Descant

Two thoughts come to mind. Are there regulations about limits on propane storage in residential zones? Do you own the tank, or does the dealer? If the dealer, will they give you a second tank so they can charge you less?

I had a 500 gallon buried tank that I purchased at a previous house. This allowed me to use whomever I wanted for fills.

[MeredithMan]

...filled up the car today for the first time in several weeks. $4.12 per gallon for premium at the Irving/Circle K near us in Goffstown. What the hell??

[tummyman]

Elections really do have consequences....every single day in every way !

[John Mercier]

Really nothing to do with the election.
US Oil production is up, demand is just up a lot more than production.

US output was 10.5M/day last October, and 11.3M this October.
The EIA estimates that we will be over 12M next year, and return to record production in 2023. But historically investors have found them to be a bit conservative in their forward forecasting.

Americans could lower their demand, but personally, I don't think the price is high enough to see actual changes in US consumption.

[Sue Doe-Nym]

I have to disagree with part of what you claim. We were energy independent prior to January 20 of this year, and now we are not. Should I continue?

[joey2665]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Really nothing to do with the election.

US Oil production is up, demand is just up a lot more than production.



US output was 10.5M/day last October, and 11.3M this October.

The EIA estimates that we will be over 12M next year, and return to record production in 2023. But historically investors have found them to be a bit conservative in their forward forecasting.



Americans could lower their demand, but personally, I don't think the price is high enough to see actual changes in US consumption.

I call BS. In this case the election had everything to do with it. You cannot defend the current administration or blame the prior for this mess.


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[John Mercier]

The claims are documented.
The highest crude oil output was 13M/day during 2019 before the pandemic.
We haven't returned to that level... at least in production... but we have seen demand return. On average, US daily consumption is around 19M/day

For NG, the charts also show us at the highest production in US history, but we are also at the highest level of export in US history.

''Since mid-September 2020, wholesale propane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, the main U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) hub, increased to an average of $1.33 per gallon (gal) during the week ending September 24, 2021, the highest weekly average since February 2014. Wholesale propane prices have increased because of high international demand and low global propane supply. The United States exported an average of 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of propane in the first half of 2021, 100,000 b/d more than in the first half of 2020, despite relatively flat production and domestic consumption.''

So depending on how it is measured, the US is still energy independent, we just export more of our hydrocarbon output than we ever have before.

The flat production in natural gas should follow the increased production in crude oil, as higher prices create incentive to produce.
More wells being profitable at these escalated price levels.

How much will stay in the US? Hard to say.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I call BS. In this case the election had everything to do with it. You cannot defend the current administration or blame the prior for this mess.


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It has nothing to do with either.
Production and demand are a part of the private sector capitalism.
When demand outstrips supply, prices rise until demand and supply come back into balance.

Capitalism - not politics - reigns supreme.

[tis]

Originally Posted by joey2665

I call BS. In this case the election had everything to do with it. You cannot defend the current administration or blame the prior for this mess.


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I agree. If Biden had left everything Trump out in place, he would have been a hero now. But no, he had to erase every good thing Trump did and here we are.

[BroadHopper]

Originally Posted by Descant

Two thoughts come to mind. Are there regulations about limits on propane storage in residential zones? Do you own the tank, or does the dealer? If the dealer, will they give you a second tank so they can charge you less?

For instance, the town of Gilmanton only allows 2 500 gallons tanks per residential lot. And they cannot be buried. This was in 2010. In Tuftonboro, one is allowed one 1000 gallons tank and it can be buried. This was 5 years ago.
I also know it varies from year to year!

As for oil, one has a 5000 gal tank buried in Center Harbor. The owner since has changed to geothermal. He has a huge mansion with two separate buildings heated by the same boiler. He claims his energy bill was reduced from 1500 a month down to 150 a month.

[Descant]

Originally Posted by BroadHopper

For instance, the town of Gilmanton only allows 2 500 gallons tanks per residential lot. And they cannot be buried. This was in 2010. In Tuftonboro, one is allowed one 1000 gallons tank and it can be buried. This was 5 years ago.
I also know it varies from year to year!

As for oil, one has a 5000 gal tank buried in Center Harbor. The owner since has changed to geothermal. He has a huge mansion with two separate buildings heated by the same boiler. He claims his energy bill was reduced from 1500 a month down to 150 a month.

In the 70's and 80's it was not uncommon for residential 1000 gallon underground oil tanks to be installed to allow better purchasing power. Thirty years later, these tanks "expired". When they were removed for replacement, leaks were found and th result was down gradient pollution. Major clean up costs and usually, no insurance. Tank construction and installation regs are much tighter now. Buyer beware!

[tummyman]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

It has nothing to do with either.
Production and demand are a part of the private sector capitalism.
When demand outstrips supply, prices rise until demand and supply come back into balance.

Capitalism - not politics - reigns supreme.

Sure, it is supply / demand. Always will be. But the last election saw reduction /elimination of fracking, cancellation of Keystone pipeline, closing of Anwar, etc. etc, all driven by the current occupant of the White House and his Green New Deal advocates. Look back BEFORE the pandemic. Demand was super high then and no problem with prices at all. Now we have super inflation, supply chain issues everywhere, and all the DC politicians want to do is spend trillions of dollars and run for the hills. Saying coming out of the pandemic is driving demand is just speaking the DC talking points. Saying politics isn't in the mix is pure BS in my opinion, narrow as you may think it is !

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Descant

In the 70's and 80's it was not uncommon for residential 1000 gallon underground oil tanks to be installed to allow better purchasing power. Thirty years later, these tanks "expired". When they were removed for replacement, leaks were found and th result was down gradient pollution. Major clean up costs and usually, no insurance. Tank construction and installation regs are much tighter now. Buyer beware!

There are State programs to fund the removal of expired tanks at little or no cost to the homeowner. I am in the process of trying to buy a home that has a buried gas tank that the owner used 30+ years ago to fill their cars. DES is involved and it looks like everything will be covered including soil and water testing.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by tummyman

Sure, it is supply / demand. Always will be. But the last election saw reduction /elimination of fracking, cancellation of Keystone pipeline, closing of Anwar, etc. etc, all driven by the current occupant of the White House and his Green New Deal advocates. Look back BEFORE the pandemic. Demand was super high then and no problem with prices at all. Now we have super inflation, supply chain issues everywhere, and all the DC politicians want to do is spend trillions of dollars and run for the hills. Saying coming out of the pandemic is driving demand is just speaking the DC talking points. Saying politics isn't in the mix is pure BS in my opinion, narrow as you may think it is !

Well since the supply is still rising all you are listing is not having any effect.
Prior to covid the wells were operating at full production of 13M/day for crude, during covid - when President Trump was still in office - demand fell dramatically and wells were shutdown. The prediction is US production of crude will return to the 13M/day in 2023. I don't use DC numbers, I use the same numbers that the capital markets use.
We currently product as much natural gas as we did before and during covid, but exports have increased as demand from Europe means producers get higher prices.

But if you believe what your saying... go long on crude futures.