Dr. Fauci Just Issued This "Sobering" Warning

[trfour]

For All; https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...edgdhp&pc=U531

[WinnisquamZ]

What, keep an eye on your dog.


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[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

What, keep an eye on your dog.

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So you think 750,000 fellow American's dead, with many more to come, is just a big joke?

[WinnisquamZ]

The sad part is individuals still listen to what the old fool has to say


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[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

The sad part is individuals still listen to what the old fool has to say

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So you think getting vaccinated is joke too?
Because that's basically all the article said.

Let me guess, you didn't bother to read it. But you still had to put your qualification score on it.
This is how we poorly communicate today. Think about the consequences of what you're doing.

I'm guilty of the same thing.

[John Mercier]

Well, we are going to have delays and shortages in the economy until we get this under control globally.

Unless it is in stock, it's a crapshoot.

[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Well, we are going to have delays and shortages in the economy until we get this under control globally.

Unless it is in stock, it's a crapshoot.

Are you referring to getting boosters in NH?

For the record we had zero issue getting a booster at CVS in MA.

I think Fauci's message is targeting first time hold outs as well.

I also agree its totally a global issue. Even if USA was 100% boosted if the rest of the globe is not strongly vaccinated it can still mutate and then hit us with new unprotected form in the near future.

We have to solve this globally. Even if it means USA gets less boosters so that other parts of the world can get their first shot.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

So you think 750,000 fellow American's dead, with many more to come, is just a big joke?

We will surely pass 1 million in 2022.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by trfour

For All; https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...edgdhp&pc=U531

Fauci seems a bit behind with his data. The plateau has ended and the curve is now rising again. New cases rose 9% in the last 14 days (New York Times).

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by WinnisquamZ

The sad part is individuals still listen to what the old fool has to say


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So don't listen to Fauci. Listen to the data. Definition of data: real numbers obtained from real scientific reports.

By the way, the "old fool" is 81 years old, looks and sounds 15 years younger, has several honorary degrees from top medical schools, and has served this country for more than 50 years, including advising every president since Reagan. He was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by GW Bush. He is one of the world's foremost immunologists. What kind of person chooses to keep serving humanity 15 years past retirement age instead of taking it easy?

How about you, WZ? Have you devoted your life to relieving human suffering? Do you have any credentials for evaluating Covid science and strategies? Tell us so we can compare you to the Old Food.

Or maybe you have some other expert to propose who can guide us through this crisis. Someone with scientific expertise and leadership who is respected around the world. We would love to hear who that might be.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

Are you referring to getting boosters in NH?

For the record we had zero issue getting a booster at CVS in MA.

I think Fauci's message is targeting first time hold outs as well.

I also agree its totally a global issue. Even if USA was 100% boosted if the rest of the globe is not strongly vaccinated it can still mutate and then hit us with new unprotected form in the near future.

We have to solve this globally. Even if it means USA gets less boosters so that other parts of the world can get their first shot.

No. I am not speaking of boosters in NH. I am referencing the entire Covid situation.

Our companies are telling us to be honest, but not overly honest.
So where do we draw the line?

I know that I have to tell customers that other than in-stock items, the lead times might be a while - but how to be honest with them that the lead time might be FOREVER... and I mean that literally. Certain colors of dozens of items could easily be discontinued by the manufacturers.

An order for an Andersen Terratone window last week has a tentative - meaning best guess - estimated time of arrival in June. Why? Because the tints we use to make the color is out of supply.

But what they refuse to understand, those tints make all the colors of the other materials they want also.

So while everyone has gotten use to a huge amount of choices in the last couple of years, so much that builders sent their customers directly to the showroom so decisions could be made long before the materials had to be ordered. Next year, those decisions might be as easy to make as the color of a Ford Model T.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

No. I am not speaking of boosters in NH. I am referencing the entire Covid situation.

This is the irony of Covid. On the one hand, people were insistent that the economy needed to be restarted, businesses needed to be allowed to reopen. We all want that. But on the other hand, they were not willing to do the SIMPLE things to end the pandemic so that (a) businesses could reopen safely and (b) the supply chain could be restored. That's irrational. You can't have it both ways. You can't have an open economy, with workers in factories producing essential goods, while your behaviors are perpetuating the pandemic. Don't want to get vaccinated and wear a mask? Fine, don't. Just be prepared to pay much higher prices for things and to wait in line forever for goods to be produced and delivered because guess what? It takes healthy people to make and deliver goods. And don't be planning on moving anytime soon because there are very few houses to purchase and you can't afford them. Why? Because reckless human behaviors forced thousands of people to flee the cities and seek shelter in New Hampshire and Maine.

[Winnisquamer]

Hi Alex I’ll take 100% completely brain washed for 200$ please.

[John Mercier]

I work in the industry.
We know what is happening at the various vendor outlets.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by Winnisquamer

Hi Alex I’ll take 100% completely brain washed for 200$ please.

I'll give you $200 to post something intelligent that adds thoughtful ideas and information to the discussion.

[LoveLakeLife]

Originally Posted by mswlogo

So you think 750,000 fellow American's dead, with many more to come, is just a big joke?

Yes, exactly right. Some disagrees with someone else, so they think things are a joke and hate a subset of people. That’s the only possibly conclusion.


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[pjard]

Originally Posted by LoveLakeLife

Yes, exactly right. Some disagrees with someone else, so they think things are a joke and hate a subset of people. That’s the only possibly conclusion.


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Some can be afraid of this and I don't judge you. Please don't judge me for NOT being afraid of this.

[LoveLakeLife]

Hi pjard

My post was laden with sarcasm but it might not have come through as intended. I applaud you for not being afraid of this, just like I. Sorry for any confusion.


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[pjard]

Originally Posted by LoveLakeLife

Hi pjard

My post was laden with sarcasm but it might not have come through as intended. I applaud you for not being afraid of this, just like I. Sorry for any confusion.


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Not at all, my comment was based on the entire topic at hand.

[John Mercier]

It isn't fear. It is money.

At a certain point, it is going to have a pretty strong effect on everyone in the areas' livelihood.
When you mess with people's livelihood, bad things tend to happen.

[LoveLakeLife]

Prescient point John.


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[mswlogo]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

It isn't fear. It is money.

At a certain point, it is going to have a pretty strong effect on everyone in the areas' livelihood.
When you mess with people's livelihood, bad things tend to happen.

I don’t think it will be money. It’s lower standard of living.

Not being able to get food and other basics trumps everything.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

It isn't fear. It is money. At a certain point, it is going to have a pretty strong effect on everyone in the areas' livelihood. When you mess with people's livelihood, bad things tend to happen.

It already has messed with the livelihood of millions of people. The only question is, at what point will people be losing so much money that they're willing to get vaccinated? I think that point will come. Many people value money---aka food, clothing, and shelter---more than anything else.

But cases show that people also value certain personal freedoms more than they value their freedom to not get vaccinated. Austria just instituted a lockdown on unvaccinated people for all but essential work and errands. (Why? Because Europe accounts for half of the infections and deaths of the whole world.) The day after the lockdown began 32,000 people got vaccinated.

I agree that money is at the heart of the pandemic. If the situation continues for more years, at some point the people and organizations that are shouldering the economic burden will collapse: hospitals; companies that can't obtain the products they sell, the raw materials to make those products, or employees; federal and state bailout budgets; landlords who can't collect rent; colleges and universities that have lost students and tuition; the food production and distribution system; retirees who lose their pension. The list of economic impacts goes on and on.

Having discovered vaccines that work, we're now faced with the ultimate enemy: human behavior that cannot be controlled on a large enough scale to stop the virus and keep its economic impacts in check. Education, friendly persuasion, and forced measures have worked to a certain extent but have not been sufficient to stop the virus and the growing economic losses. What else is there after asking and telling people to get vaccinated? Behavior only changes when people have a very compelling reason to change. More massive deaths? More massive economic collapse? Empty shelves in grocery stores?

I think that at some point people's survival instinct (built into the human brain) will outweigh the culturally learned values of personal freedom. In fact the herd instinct (needed for survival) will prevail over the desire for individual freedom when personal survival is at stake.

[John Mercier]

It isn't going to be just about getting vaccinations.

The supply line is being permanently changed by the demand.

For instance, when you had your roof shingled, you may have noticed that several different color options existed... some in stock, some special order.
For every bundle of shingles that are made and warehoused for the special order, a bundle of stock color shingles could not be made. The SO are made when their is slack in the manufacturing chain that provides the excess time and tint options.

In the future, those colors with tints colors that have extended supply lines will not be manufactured and warehoused. So getting those colors, if they are even continued in the manufacturing process will cost much more and have extended lead times of months... not weeks.

When I say months, most customers thing two, three, or four. The vendors mean nine, ten, or even twelve. When you order too many, you cannot return them - they are special order. If you order too few, it will take nine, ten, or even twelve months to get another bundle.

Pick a color that is special order and have an issue like wind damage... and you can't get the roof fixed without having a patch of a stock color.

[Winnisquamer]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

I'll give you $200 to post something intelligent that adds thoughtful ideas and information to the discussion.

It takes zero intelligence to see that you are literally brainwashed into fear. Wear your 3 masks, stay inside, get 10 shots. Just leave the rest of us non sheep alone with your fear and literal bs at this point.

[John Mercier]

You are just as afraid... just afraid of a little jab in the arm.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by Winnisquamer

It takes zero intelligence to see that you are literally brainwashed into fear. Wear your 3 masks, stay inside, get 10 shots. Just leave the rest of us non sheep alone with your fear and literal bs at this point.

A sheep is a person who buys into a mindset without investigating the facts, sometimes under the influence of charismatic people. That's not me, sorry.

You need to distinguish between "fear" and "rational thinking and acting." Having an awareness of risks and taking reasonable means to minimize risk is a sign of rational thinking. You do that every time you get in your car and stop at stop lights. You're not constantly terrified of getting killed, but you're aware of the risk of running red lights and so you don't do that.

Fear happens when you don't have information about a risk and you don't have the means to protect yourself from the risk. Neither of those are true for me personally or for most people in our geographical area. We know what causes Covid, we know how to prevent it, and each one of us has at least 3 powerful means of preventing it.

So you can have peace of mind born of ignorance or denial of the facts, or peace of mind born of education and rational actions. I prefer the latter. You're trying to portray me as a chicken in a small class of chickens and you're the macho rooster majority. The truth is that about 70% of Americans think like me and are fully vaccinated, and 80% are partly vaccinated. People who deny the seriousness of the pandemic and refuse vaccinations are in a shrinking minority. They strut around like roosters because they fear losing their dominance in the barnyard. Sorry, but that's already happened.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

It isn't going to be just about getting vaccinations. The supply line is being permanently changed by the demand.
For instance, when you had your roof shingled, you may have noticed that several different color options existed.

Interesting post, John. It may be too soon to say that the supply line is "permanently" changed by the demand, but I think that could be a good thing. You gave a good example of shingle colors. The number of available colors made me a bit crazy. I didn't want to have to choose from among 50 colors, 25 companies, and 10 types of shingles. A choice between black or gray architectural shingles would have been fine.

One of the biggest problems of our economy is that huge resources are invested in an excess of choices: thousands of things that people don't really need, available in a hundred times more options than we need. Because the profit motive trumps all other goals, in the end, many essential needs go unmet.

1st example: housing. We don't need larger houses with more comfort and convenience items in them. We need larger quantities of small, affordable houses with basic amenities.

2nd example: We don't need 5,000 types of food, most of it junk. We need perhaps 50 types of food, all healthy, affordable, and available.

Same for clothing, vehicles, and virtually every other consumer good you can think of. There is an overproliferation of goods and too much time, money, labor, and natural resources invested in them rather than in more fundamental needs that would give people greater well-being. I wonder what would happen if the ports prioritized ships delivering essential goods and turned away the ones delivering unnecessary junk.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

Interesting post, John. It may be too soon to say that the supply line is "permanently" changed by the demand, but I think that could be a good thing. You gave a good example of shingle colors. The number of available colors made me a bit crazy. I didn't want to have to choose from among 50 colors, 25 companies, and 10 types of shingles. A choice between black or gray architectural shingles would have been fine.

One of the biggest problems of our economy is that huge resources are invested in an excess of choices: thousands of things that people don't really need, available in a hundred times more options than we need. Because the profit motive trumps all other goals, in the end, many essential needs go unmet.

1st example: housing. We don't need larger houses with more comfort and convenience items in them. We need larger quantities of small, affordable houses with basic amenities.

2nd example: We don't need 5,000 types of food, most of it junk. We need perhaps 50 types of food, all healthy, affordable, and available.

Same for clothing, vehicles, and virtually every other consumer good you can think of. There is an overproliferation of goods and too much time, money, labor, and natural resources invested in them rather than in more fundamental needs that would give people greater well-being. I wonder what would happen if the ports prioritized ships delivering essential goods and turned away the ones delivering unnecessary junk.

And the variety of options brings up a point. How does all that variety drive up the price for those looking for a standard option, if at all? Seriously, if you aren’t satisfied with a realistic number of options, are you driving up prices for the majority to satisfy your specific desire? I don’t know that answer and looking to the SMEs (subject matter experts) to answer the question. I think we are overly indulged with regards to options. Does anything operate better if it’s a specific color?


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[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

And the variety of options brings up a point. How does all that variety drive up the price for those looking for a standard option, if at all? Seriously, if you aren’t satisfied with a realistic number of options, are you driving up prices for the majority to satisfy your specific desire? I don’t know that answer and looking to the SMEs (subject matter experts) to answer the question. I think we are overly indulged with regards to options. Does anything operate better if it’s a specific color?

If I understand you correctly, I think you're saying that fewer options would be cheaper to manufacture and prices would be lower. I think that's true. 10 factories producing 10 basic, necessary items over and over can do this more efficiently than 1000 factories producing 10,000 items, 9,990 of them unnecessary. I also think that a huge number of the excess products end up in the landfill.

[gillygirl]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

If I understand you correctly, I think you're saying that fewer options would be cheaper to manufacture and prices would be lower. I think that's true. 10 factories producing 10 basic, necessary items over and over can do this more efficiently than 1000 factories producing 10,000 items, 9,990 of them unnecessary. I also think that a huge number of the excess products end up in the landfill.

You get my point. Really, do we need 100 options when 10 will suffice for the realistic operation of what we need? To me, your being should not be reflected in material things. Rather, it should be reflected in how you treat those around you. After my husband died, I turned to material things that I was not allowed in the marriage. Yet when I was free to decide on the material things, in the end they brought me no joy. Perhaps this was a reflection that I got little support from those around me after his death, so I sought solace in material things. Whatever the case may be, objects pale in comparison to human interaction.


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[John Mercier]

Not quite.
The specialty items are priced accordingly.

What happens is the factories would run at about 80% capacity, so the specialty items would occupy that slack 20%.
The slack is normally built in to deal with maintenance and labor issues.

Currently, the demand is so high that the basic items represent more than 100% of the capacity.

From a consumer standpoint, the timeline is changing.

For instance, if you came to me to order a Mathews Brothers vinyl window - high efficiency is built into their product at all levels - but wanted a basic white no bells and whistles last March then ordered the same exact window in October, you would see the same price. The lead time would move from four week to six weeks.

Now, if you ordered Black on Black, as compared to that white window you would see a higher cost for the extra work, and an extended lead time for the extra work to be done.
If you tried to order that Black on Black in June, you would find that they shut down that option for a time due to supply lines of the materials needed to manufacture the Black on Black option.

Certain options that use to have lead times of six to eight weeks, now have those lead times in months. If you need more, it takes months to get that; and if you have extra it is non-returnable.

That adds significantly to cost for the people that want the specialty items.

[trfour]

PLEAS stay well, and OUT of the WAY!

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by gillygirl

You get my point. Really, do we need 100 options when 10 will suffice for the realistic operation of what we need? To me, your being should not be reflected in material things. Rather, it should be reflected in how you treat those around you. After my husband died, I turned to material things that I was not allowed in the marriage. Yet when I was free to decide on the material things, in the end they brought me no joy. Perhaps this was a reflection that I got little support from those around me after his death, so I sought solace in material things. Whatever the case may be, objects pale in comparison to human interaction.

I agree with your sentiment here, and I think it's the real root of all of our current crises. Greed around material things and money has led to people giving no thought to why we're on this earth and what we came here to do. In my opinion, we're here to learn as much as we can, make things easier for others, and care for the planet. Sometimes those lessons are learned through big personal losses.

[SailinAway]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

What happens is the factories would run at about 80% capacity, so the specialty items would occupy that slack 20%.

John, I just want a window. I don't want an expensive specialty window. I want something that keeps the weather out and opens and closes.

I can think of an awful lot of things to do with the slack 20% besides producing unneeded items. Take for example the Ball Chain company in Mount Vernon, New York. During the pandemic they used their slack to distribute one of the very few trustworthy KN95 masks from China (made by Powecom in China and sold by Ball Chain under the name Bona Fide Masks). https://www.maxim.com/gear/us-ball-c...ring-pandemic/

The problem with our economy and marketing is that companies no longer start by analyzing what consumers need. They start by inventing unneeded products and then convince people they need them.

[Woodsy]

Originally Posted by trfour

PLEAS stay well, and OUT of the WAY!

Unfortunately, Covid is NEVER going away.... and it will continue to mutate (as designed)! This is no longer a pandemic, this is endemic. The sooner people accept that there will be new norms, the better off they will be. The vax and the subsequent follow on drugs will "most likely" and with "minimal side effects" keep your symptoms mild to moderate and you will "most likely" not require hospitalization if you should catch Covid. But there is still no guarantee... Per the CDC a person who is vaxxed can still catch & spread Covid. Those who are high risk now, regardless of vaccination status/community vax rate will be high risk tomorrow. This will not change.

This is all about choice... Some people will get vaxxed, some will not. Some people will take the newer drugs as they come on the market, some will not. Some will live the rest of their lives terrified of the virus, others will adapt and overcome. If you believe the vax protects you, then you have nothing to fear from the unvaxxed. Live your life, and let others live theirs.

Woodsy

[LoveLakeLife]

Gilly everything you wrote is true. The intangibles are more valuable than the tangibles.

Thankfully though there are no limits on the type and scope of tangible things Americans can buy if they have the means and desire.

Sorry for the loss of your husband. Sounds like he was a lucky guy to have you by his side.


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[John Mercier]

I generally don't see greed... I see lack of planning.
They say this happens whenever a large part of the population surveys their mortality.

[Seaplane Pilot]

Originally Posted by Woodsy

Live your life, and let others live theirs.

It's that simple, Woodsy. The more people try to push others, trying to convince them that their way is the right / only way, the more people dig in their heels and resist. If they keep poking the bear, sooner or later, the bear is going to get sick of it and fight back.

[John Mercier]

Capitalism doesn't care about what you think.
Capitalism is what is moving the guardrails.

[LoveLakeLife]

Another good point John. You simplify it well.


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[Woodsy]

Originally Posted by John Mercier

Capitalism doesn't care about what you think.
Capitalism is what is moving the guardrails.

Capitalism cares more about what you think than socialism does.... as capitalism is based on individualism and individual gain.


Woodsy

[John Mercier]

Our businesses may appear to be more socialistic, in that they are now more concerned with labor, but that is more of limited resource on the various capitalistic inputs.

The companies that focus the hardest on attracting, protecting, and keeping the talent survive, and those that don't fail.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by SailinAway

John, I just want a window. I don't want an expensive specialty window. I want something that keeps the weather out and opens and closes.

I can think of an awful lot of things to do with the slack 20% besides producing unneeded items. Take for example the Ball Chain company in Mount Vernon, New York. During the pandemic they used their slack to distribute one of the very few trustworthy KN95 masks from China (made by Powecom in China and sold by Ball Chain under the name Bona Fide Masks). https://www.maxim.com/gear/us-ball-c...ring-pandemic/

The problem with our economy and marketing is that companies no longer start by analyzing what consumers need. They start by inventing unneeded products and then convince people they need them.

Actually the consumer drives it. They make the requests and we see what we can accomplish.

It has been that way forever.

People see old cape cod homes, the slope of the roof is lower than the modern versions, and they sometimes wonder why the front facade has clapboards while the sides and the back have shingles. The answer is that it was easier to produces shingles with a broad axe, while clapboard would require two men working with a saw. Because the clapboard required more work... it was placed on the ''money-side'' of a home.

They ask why old farmers used to paint window sashes black. Black would allow the eye to look past the frame and grille work (muntins) making the window appear larger. Larger panes of glass were costly, and this made the farmer look a bit richer.

Today, clapboard is less expensive... and window sashes are made with dual panes that fill the entire sash. The grille work (muntins) are simply added at an additional cost.

The color options are more because people do not wish the maintenance of painting. Paint can come in about two million or so colors... so the manufacturers try to expand the color line. But certain colors or hues are always more in demand than others.

When demand is very high for those certain colors, none of the lines run the extras colors... those colors become much more pricey and have much longer lead times to get.
For a DIYer, not really an issue. But on new construction or when trying to schedule a contractor... it more often creates issues.
But even the DIYer is likely to switch to the more basic colors rather than wait close to a year to get the project completed.

[trfour]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ox/4124284001/