Housing Market Slowdown

[thinkxingu]

Lots of articles this last week about a slowdown in the housing market. Many identify "500k more sellers than buyers" and that "the real estate market is finally starting to listen."

I've gotta think that second home locations would show trends like this before primary home areas—anyone seeing a slowdown in the Lakes Region?

I know that here at Arcadia, properties are still selling without hitting the market, but that might be a reflection of the cost-of-entry becoming a better value with high interest rates and prices.

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[BillTex]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

but that might be a reflection of the cost-of-entry becoming a better value with high interest rates and prices.

Can you explain? Not sure i understand that statement.

In any case, i agree some properties are spending more time on the market. Seems like only the most “perfect”properties are still moving quickly.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by BillTex

Can you explain? Not sure i understand that statement.

In any case, i agree some properties are spending more time on the market. Seems like only the most “perfect”properties are still moving quickly.

The cost-of-entry at Arcadia is ~$200k these days. That includes a private beach, private boat ramp, rentable boat poles, docks (separate ownership), tennis/pickleball courts, laundry and shower facilities, a rec. hall with patio overlooking the lake and performer stage, playground, sports field and boat storage, etc. etc.

As the prices for lake properties have skyrocketed, Arcadia has become a better and better value. That I know, the lowest selling price for a home on Hanson Cove this last couple years is just under $1M, almost five times higher.

Though it's certainly not for everyone—seasonal, an association, etc.—it's a bargain for lake access in a gated community.

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[Biggd]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

Lots of articles this last week about a slowdown in the housing market. Many identify "500k more sellers than buyers" and that "the real estate market is finally starting to listen."

I've gotta think that second home locations would show trends like this before primary home areas—anyone seeing a slowdown in the Lakes Region?

I know that here at Arcadia, properties are still selling without hitting the market, but that might be a reflection of the cost-of-entry becoming a better value with high interest rates and prices.

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It was bound to happen sooner or later. I know a guy who put his home on the market a few weeks ago, an entry level lake access home. A year ago, that home would have had multiple offers, now it sits on the market for who knows how long.
The second home market is usually the first to slow down.
Other parts of the country are already in a decline, New England overall has held up better than most.
In my hometown of Waltham Ma. a 1000 sq ft entry level home on a slab in need of remodeling listed for 650K, had multiple offers over list at an open house last week.

[FlyingScot]

Arcadia sounds great!

On lake properties in general, I do not think values will fall significantly, for two reasons. First--waterfront, like other super premium land, has skyrocketed away from the rest of the market, and everybody knows the supply is finite, it has become a distinct market without connection to normal buying and selling. Second, almost all of the recent waterfront transactions have gone to people who are rich, not stretching to afford it (no one stretches to afford a $2MM second home). So financially, it's just one piece of their overall portfolio.

But of course, I do not have a crystal ball...

[TomC]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

Arcadia sounds great!

On lake properties in general, I do not think values will fall significantly, for two reasons. First--waterfront, like other super premium land, has skyrocketed away from the rest of the market, and everybody knows the supply is finite, it has become a distinct market without connection to normal buying and selling. Second, almost all of the recent waterfront transactions have gone to people who are rich, not stretching to afford it (no one stretches to afford a $2MM second home). So financially, it's just one piece of their overall portfolio.

But of course, I do not have a crystal ball...

An outsider coming here and reading 50+ post threads on the low lake level, water quality/cyanobacteria, loud music from wake boats, ever increasing ad volarem-based property taxes, etc., may very well think twice about dropping multimillions on lakefront property...

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by TomC

An outsider coming here and reading 50+ post threads on the low lake level, water quality/cyanobacteria, loud music from wake boats, ever increasing ad volarem-based property taxes, etc., may very well think twice about dropping multimillions on lakefront property...

I think that's part of it, sure, but I also think a lot of today's younger generation no longer wants the "baggage" of extras in their life, nor can they afford them.

So, even though there's "only so much waterfront to go around," as Flying mentions above, if there's less demand from younger generations, it's a simple formula.
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[TomC]

I think you are on to something: my children are in their late 20's... before I sold my lakefront house in Raoul Cove I offered it to them... they declined!

[TheTimeTraveler]

Originally Posted by TomC

I think you are on to something: my children are in their late 20's... before I sold my lakefront house in Raoul Cove I offered it to them... they declined!

They're waiting for the cash instead!

[BillTex]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

The cost-of-entry at Arcadia is ~$200k these days. That includes a private beach, private boat ramp, rentable boat poles, docks (separate ownership), tennis/pickleball courts, laundry and shower facilities, a rec. hall with patio overlooking the lake and performer stage, playground, sports field and boat storage, etc. etc.

As the prices for lake properties have skyrocketed, Arcadia has become a better and better value. That I know, the lowest selling price for a home on Hanson Cove this last couple years is just under $1M, almost five times higher.

Though it's certainly not for everyone—seasonal, an association, etc.—it's a bargain for lake access in a gated community.

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I am sorry…what is Arcadia?
Trailers?
Condos?
HOA?

Thank you,
Bill

[BillTex]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I think that's part of it, sure, but I also think a lot of today's younger generation no longer wants the "baggage" of extras in their life, nor can they afford them.

So, even though there's "only so much waterfront to go around," as Flying mentions above, if there's less demand from younger generations, it's a simply formula.
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This.
Many of the younger generations have ruled out ever owning a primary home, never mind second home. So they just move on to other things in life, like travel. They are more about “experience” than they are “baggage”.

That is ok-i understand. But I wonder how that will shake out as they age.

[thinkxingu]

Originally Posted by BillTex

I am sorry…what is Arcadia?
Trailers?
Condos?
HOA?

Thank you,
Bill

Arcadia Campground Association is a former campground-turned-condo Campground where the residents own the sites with, mostly, park model trailers and stick-built porches and decks, patios, etc.

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[kjbathe]

Originally Posted by TomC

An outsider coming here and reading 50+ post threads on the low lake level, water quality/cyanobacteria, loud music from wake boats, ever increasing ad volarem-based property taxes, etc., may very well think twice about dropping multimillions on lakefront property...

The internet version of the lake always seems to be more negative than the in person. No one posts about clean water, beautiful sunsets or the 50 people that shared a friendly wave. Captain Bonehead, however, gets lots of traction. 🙂

[winterh]

Inventory is up in my seacoast town. Past few years there were never more than 3 or 4 listings available at any given time. 16 today. Lots of homes selling though so it's just more supply but still good demand. Waterfront here in lakes region still seems to have very limited inventory. Articles about home sales can be misleading as nationwide stats don't always apply to our local areas. (at least right now they don't)

[BillTex]

Since this is a broad real estate thread, i will throw this out for comments. If not appropriate to the OP please let me know.

I’ll note that DW and I were both licensed real estate agents years back, so we know a little bit about real estate.

Friend of ours looking to relocate to northeast from Chicago. Has a “private showing” yesterday.
Customer offers $50k > listing. (You think she’d be dancing…)
Our friend’s agent suggests she counters by asking for $10k more!?

I say that is crazy! Take the offer and be happy. I think she risks losing the sale for a lousy $10k. She was already offered $50k over list.

I dont know the Chicago market, i dont know if there are any contingencies.

I think her agent is:
* trying to cover up a poor original listing price
* greedy

In any case, I have never heard of a seller counter offering an over list price offer by asking for more!?

What say you?

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by BillTex

Since this is a broad real estate thread, i will throw this out for comments. If not appropriate to the OP please let me know.

I’ll note that DW and I were both licensed real estate agents years back, so we know a little bit about real estate.

Friend of ours looking to relocate to northeast from Chicago. Has a “private showing” yesterday.
Customer offers $50k > listing. (You think she’d be dancing…)
Our friend’s agent suggests she counters by asking for $10k more!?

I say that is crazy! Take the offer and be happy. I think she risks losing the sale for a lousy $10k. She was already offered $50k over list.

I dont know the Chicago market, i dont know if there are any contingencies.

I think her agent is:
* trying to cover up a poor original listing price
* greedy

In any case, I have never heard of a seller counter offering an over list price offer by asking for more!?

What say you?

It seems like we are missing some of the story here. Unless there is a competitive process going on, on unless the house is not yet on the market and they are expecting a competitive process, this does not make sense from either direction:

Why list for less than you'd accept?

Why offer more than asking price?

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by TomC

An outsider coming here and reading 50+ post threads on the low lake level, water quality/cyanobacteria, loud music from wake boats, ever increasing ad volarem-based property taxes, etc., may very well think twice about dropping multimillions on lakefront property...

Except the Forum this year is no more negative than in the past, so these things should not drive prices down.

Of course, the other way to look at this is to turn the question on its head. I cannot remember of you own waterfront property. If yes, would you sell it today for what's listed on Zillow, or your own estimate of market value, or even 20% above that?

[TomC]

I sold my Winnipesaukee properties and built on acreage with waterfront on a smaller lake. when you are selling/buying at the same time, equivalent market forces operate on both ends of the transaction, so the anxiety/timing on the best time to pull the trigger is lessened.

[BillTex]

Originally Posted by FlyingScot

It seems like we are missing some of the story here. Unless there is a competitive process going on, on unless the house is not yet on the market and they are expecting a competitive process, this does not make sense from either direction:

Why list for less than you'd accept?

Why offer more than asking price?

No idea why the agent is pushing them to list at less than they accepted. That is the crazy part and i would think puts the agent’s license at risk (as well as this sale). Countering an over asking price by asking for more is bewildering. I would not be surprised if the offer blows up because of this response.

Offers over asking has been the norm since rona and during the last real estate bubble (early 2000’s) in many, many markets. Nothing unusual about that.

[SAB1]

Originally Posted by thinkxingu

I think that's part of it, sure, but I also think a lot of today's younger generation no longer wants the "baggage" of extras in their life, nor can they afford them.

So, even though there's "only so much waterfront to go around," as Flying mentions above, if there's less demand from younger generations, it's a simply formula.
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This is very true. Can be seen in more than housing purchases as well.

[Descant]

Whether it be $10K or $50K, we would have a better persdpective if we kew the asking price ranfe. I doubt the RE Agent was being greedy--his/her share of the $10K would only be a few hundred in most cases. Special conditions would justify the $10K ask, such as-- furnshed? Occupancy wutrhin 20 days, etc.

[John Mercier]

Originally Posted by SAB1

This is very true. Can be seen in more than housing purchases as well.

Very hard to get quiet on the lake(s) now, and much less of a focus on hunting and fishing for those that are.

Smaller lakes and ponds are offering a better outlet.

[Juiced06GTO]

It seems like listings on Winni are lasting longer and price cuts are happening. They are still almost double what they were 5 years ago, but at least some are moving down. Most of the island places I have been watching have had some fairly significant reductions (25-50K) over the last month, but 650-750K for an island property while still needing to purchase a slip is still not that appealing unfortunately.

[BillTex]

Originally Posted by Descant

Whether it be $10K or $50K, we would have a better persdpective if we kew the asking price ranfe. I doubt the RE Agent was being greedy--his/her share of the $10K would only be a few hundred in most cases. Special conditions would justify the $10K ask, such as-- furnshed? Occupancy wutrhin 20 days, etc.

List price = $450k (small house, suburb of Chicago).
Ever.
It is the only offer they have to date.

At $50k over asking, you either accept the offer or not. But to counter by asking more? Crazy.

Anyone else ever counter offer an over asking bid by looking for more $?
I thinks its the best way to lose the sale.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Juiced06GTO

It seems like listings on Winni are lasting longer and price cuts are happening. They are still almost double what they were 5 years ago, but at least some are moving down. Most of the island places I have been watching have had some fairly significant reductions (25-50K) over the last month, but 650-750K for an island property while still needing to purchase a slip is still not that appealing unfortunately.

I watch the island market very closely and often hear of things coming before they are listed (I cast a wide net!). The inventory in general has been low this season. Rattlesnake listings haven’t been moving at all. It seems many of the listings are still priced for the Covid market and will sit.