Winni Weather - winter 2007

Resident 2B · 01-31-2007, 10:43 AM

Siksukr and all others,

I never said that forecast models were accurate, so I agree with your opinion. However, they are interesting to review and to some degree projections can be made from them. Exact storm tracks, percise storm intensity and P-type are a real challange for today's models and these variables are so important to what happens during winter storms here in New England.

That said, it is looking like the storm on Firday will effect the Lakes Region, but the snowfall is likely to be on the lower side of my 5"to 10" estimate made yesterday. Today I would guess it will be around 6". Two reasons why: no high pressure area in place to pump in the cold air while the storm is around, and the storm looks to be developing too late and too far away from us to bring snow at the top end of yesterday's estimate. However, I still think it will be within the range served up yesterday.

It will get very cold after the storm passes. The storm will intensify northeast of us and will act as a big pump bringing down some very cold air and we could go well below zero on Sunday and Monday nights.

Again, this is based upon models and we seem to be in agreement that the models are far from perfect.

On the ground hog front, it looks like the local ground hog will not see his shadow on Friday. Based upon folklore, that means an early ice-out as winter will end soon. This is in strong contrast with the weather models that are suggesting a cold and stormy 30 days ahead. We do not seem to be able to get the rodent and the models on the same page.

Time will tell!

R2B

01-31-2007, 10:43 AM	#11
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	Siksukr and all others, I never said that forecast models were accurate, so I agree with your opinion. However, they are interesting to review and to some degree projections can be made from them. Exact storm tracks, percise storm intensity and P-type are a real challange for today's models and these variables are so important to what happens during winter storms here in New England. That said, it is looking like the storm on Firday will effect the Lakes Region, but the snowfall is likely to be on the lower side of my 5"to 10" estimate made yesterday. Today I would guess it will be around 6". Two reasons why: no high pressure area in place to pump in the cold air while the storm is around, and the storm looks to be developing too late and too far away from us to bring snow at the top end of yesterday's estimate. However, I still think it will be within the range served up yesterday. It will get very cold after the storm passes. The storm will intensify northeast of us and will act as a big pump bringing down some very cold air and we could go well below zero on Sunday and Monday nights. Again, this is based upon models and we seem to be in agreement that the models are far from perfect. On the ground hog front, it looks like the local ground hog will not see his shadow on Friday. Based upon folklore, that means an early ice-out as winter will end soon. This is in strong contrast with the weather models that are suggesting a cold and stormy 30 days ahead. We do not seem to be able to get the rodent and the models on the same page. Time will tell! R2B