Land and real estate prices

LadyJane · 06-09-2007, 08:43 PM

I know that real estate prices seem to be coming down a bit in many places, and I wondered what anyone's thoughts on that topic are? I am thinking about buying a little piece of land in the Meredith area, but some of the locals told me a while back that I should "wait til the bubble bursts"
how do you think it is now? will the prices on land ever ease down a bit? Every time I come north I just hate leaving. I would love to get my foot in the door in this area.

Irish mist · 06-09-2007, 10:18 PM

This is a difficult question......and this is JMO, so take it for what it's worth. For the first time in my memory prices in central NH have not gone down as fast as they have in the greater Boston area, or Massachusetts in general. In the past a vacation area like the lakes Region really would suffer much more than the rest of the state, and especially Boston. I'm guessing we are down about 5% in value whereas Boston is close to 15% down.

This real estate slow-down started in about May 2005, and I suspect we are about half way through it. So if you wait a while longer to purchase real estate I suspect it will not hurt you. And will perhaps drop another 5% or so.

What's changed in the Lakes Region from the past is that the baby-boomers are starting to retire, and this area has become a prime retirement place. Many people that would have gone to Florida in the past are having second thoughts because of the taxes & the horrible house insurance situation that has developed down there.

I think that in 2 or 3 years from now prices are going to start going up again......fast ! BTW I'm not involved in the real estate industry, lol. I just have an interest in this subject. I would love to read some thoughts from local real estate pros on what they think the future of the central NH real estate market is

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DREAMS · 06-10-2007, 09:31 AM

This has been a hot topic for 3 years since the highs and crash of 2004. I am not a real estate agent either so my opinions are only based on local living exposure and following the market for four years.

The major opportunity we hear advertised which is a fact, you don't usually find a combination of lower purchase prices and lower interest rates. The combination has always been purchase low, pay higher interest and vice versa. If you really take a look around, the asking prices for most property has not really dropped considerably. People who have to sell properties for various reasons have been forced to accept lower offers to "move on" with their life and personal situations.

If you are focusing on purchasing property in one of the lower tax rate towns such as Meredith, Moultonboro, etc., the key will always be location, location, location for purchase and resale. If you factor in the 15% to 18% tax deduction for interest paid on your second home purchase plus the annual tax deduction with a lower interest rate to purchase, you will have a good opportunity to get in the market and build equity. As the other gentleman pointed out, the Lakes Region has not taken a hit compared to residential properties in southen new hampshire. Real Estate has always been and will always be a key factor to savings and retirement - far better than earning a high of 5% in a CD or savings account.

You can even increase your savings by purchasing a property to rent on a year round basis in the Meredith and Moultonboro areas where it is very difficult to rent a home year round! The majority of rental property is rented for seasonal basis but actually costs the owners more than renting to a party on an annual basis.

If you see a good buy now, I would go for it! You will kick yourself later when you say I should have and didn't! Good Luck!

MAXUM · 06-11-2007, 05:24 PM

Inventory seems higher than it has in the past, but prices have not really moved in either direction. The "prime" property IE waterfront, seems to not be really effected probably due to the typical buyer who from what I understand typically have enough descretionary income to buy these places outright - even at the prices you see today. The only factor I could see being a deterant is the re-occuring tax bill. In the end what determines the prices is the motivation of the seller and what the buyer is willing to pay. Far as I can tell prices are not moving really in any direction or if they are "reduced" it's not by any significant amount considering the original asking price was high to begin with. Really it's no bargin to see a piece of property priced 20% over true market value then reduced 10% and advertised as a hell of a deal. Um - no it's still 10% higher than it should be. Of course this is based soley on the advertised asking price, the bottom line of what the sale price is on any given property could very well be substantially lower. That's where it's helpful to talk to some one in the know, a local agent.

This is just my casual observation and not one of somebody who is in anyway connected to the real estate market. However I do find it interesting to keep tabs on what is for sale in the hopes that one day I might be in a position to lock up a little slice of waterfront for myself.

jetskier · 06-11-2007, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish mist

This is a difficult question......and this is JMO, so take it for what it's worth. For the first time in my memory prices in central NH have not gone down as fast as they have in the greater Boston area, or Massachusetts in general. In the past a vacation area like the lakes Region really would suffer much more than the rest of the state, and especially Boston. I'm guessing we are down about 5% in value whereas Boston is close to 15% down.

This real estate slow-down started in about May 2005, and I suspect we are about half way through it. So if you wait a while longer to purchase real estate I suspect it will not hurt you. And will perhaps drop another 5% or so.

What's changed in the Lakes Region from the past is that the baby-boomers are starting to retire, and this area has become a prime retirement place. Many people that would have gone to Florida in the past are having second thoughts because of the taxes & the horrible house insurance situation that has developed down there.

I think that in 2 or 3 years from now prices are going to start going up again......fast ! BTW I'm not involved in the real estate industry, lol. I just have an interest in this subject. I would love to read some thoughts from local real estate pros on what they think the future of the central NH real estate market is

I think you are right. I have rental properties in Florida and the taxes have gone through the roof. In the past 5 years they have pretty much tripled. In addition, all the insurance companies are pulling out of Florida; we are now insured out of the state pool. The issue is that the rates are quite high.

In addition, when it is too dry there are sink holes (one on our neighbor's property that is about 90 feet deep). When it is too wet...hurricanes and wind issues.

I am becoming pretty jaded on Florida and seriously thinking about selling off my properties. New Hampshire is a much better option IMHO.

Jetskier

Irish mist · 06-11-2007, 05:58 PM

jetskier,
I have a friend in Naples who has lost about 35% of his property value since he built in 2004. Taxes in Florida have gone crazy. His house insurance is now about one thousand dollars a month......not a good environment.

I agree about NH as a good retirement option. In the past I always thought that I would be down in Florida, but I recently purchased a larger condo up here, and am about 99% sure that NH is where I'm going to stay. If people have not checked out what is happening with costs in Florida they are going to be quite shocked.
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Ropetow · 06-11-2007, 07:06 PM

I agree that NH is a great retirement option. That is our current plan. But let's wait and see what the folks in Concord come up with. The way they are headed with the school funding issue, an income tax will be here before you know it. I have some colleagues who are newly-elected Reps (Democrats) and they don't hide the fact that enacting a 4% - 6% income tax is their goal....pay for education and whatever social welfare programs they so desire. A friend who owns a local RE company said the uncertainty of 'tax-free' NH is a factor in the current slow market. He also said that sellers are asking too much and not coming down enough while buyers and wisely waiting. Some properties (attractive ones) are lingering on the market for years. His advice: If you see a piece of property you want, offer what you think it is worth. He recently had a sale where the seller accepted an offer 20% less than the asking price. You never know....

Pineedles · 06-11-2007, 07:37 PM

My parents sold their lakefront property in the late 80's for 250K (prime spot 200' of shore frontage) the buyer flipped the property and sold at a profit to someone that took down the house except for the stone fireplace, hearth, and chimney, and built a new house. Last year's assessment was 1.2m. You can't go wrong with lakefront! BUT! if you look at it as an investment, it is a normal equity holding.

secondcurve · 06-11-2007, 08:05 PM

In my opinion, prices in the near term will continue to behave well. Longer term, it's probably a downward trend.

I think the one thing real estate bulls are forgetting is that this "downturn" has been happening in an excellent macro environment. Specifically, interest rates are low (6% for a 30-year fixed, until just the past week), unemployment is non-existent (around 4.5% last month) and the stock market has been robust. Against this backdrop, it is surprising that there has been any downturn at all.

If any of the above variables change substantially there will be a significant real estate downturn. Remember, low interest rates inflate all asset classes, including real estate.

If you are in a position to buy, or need to buy, go ahead and make the purchase. On the other hand, if you are going to retire in 5-10 years, or are considering borrowing heavily to make your purchase, be patient as I am pretty sure there will be a better entry point. A second home area such as Winnipesaukee becomes very vunerable in a gut wrenching recession.

Knot Droolin' · 06-11-2007, 08:20 PM

It took the US 200+ years to reach 300 million in popuation. At the current rate of growth this country is expected to be at 400 million by 2042. What do you think that will do to land prices over the next 35 years?

Source:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...pulation_x.htm

Ropetow · 06-11-2007, 09:00 PM

Profile Bank, Alton: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 30-year term -- 6.875%

Laconia Savings Bank: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 30-year term -- 6.750%

They are creeping up....

Irish mist · 06-11-2007, 09:27 PM

Knot Droolin,
You are right on. If we keep this massive immigration up (the immigration bill just defeated in D.C. would bring in 70 million people in 20 years) real estate prices are going to go through the roof ! As these people pour into the country you are going to see massive building projcts forcing up prices everywhere.

And since most of these immigrants will be poor; native born people will be leaving the southwest & places like Florida and coming to rural places like NH.
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N platform

Flylady · 06-11-2007, 09:34 PM

For whats its worth, if you can swing it and find what you like, considering all of the advice from this forum and with a good agent and reseach if you find your piece of heaven in your price range, make an offer. 10% to 20% offers below asking prices have been done, especially when it is at the end of the season and the owner doesn't want to go through another winter with all the hassels and expenses. Over time waterfront will increase with demand as the population continues to grow and more boomers retire with a lot of cash in their pockets.

fatlazyless · 06-11-2007, 09:51 PM

Is there an issue with the water quality what with the American Express ads with Ellen DeGeneris that just started running maybe one week ago?

Usually the lake water looks and smells pretty pristine. My cozy cottage near buoy 3 gets lots and lots of wave action, too. Today, it was loaded with yellow pollen. Went for a swim today at 4pm, and when I got out, something was smelling fishy, or something. Sniff, sniff, sniff, is a soapy shower needed now after a swim. What is that smell? Oh, guess what, it's me.......but what is that smell doing in the water? Plus, on top of the smell, there is big trout or salmon, cannot tell which, which must be guarding its' eggs, because it nipped me on the toes twice while I was fumbling with a dock support.

ApS · 06-12-2007, 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knot Droolin'

It took the US 200+ years to reach 300 million in popuation. At the current rate of growth this country is expected to be at 400 million by 2042. What do you think that will do to land prices over the next 35 years?

Against a mid-1980s backdrop of, "There's going to be a housing glut by the year 2000...", I bought one lakefront residence in Florida. (Not too painful). When a nearby lot came up for sale, I bought it (Not sure why, except it seemed too cheap).

When our long-lost Lake Winnipesaukee camp came onto the market, I had to have it. (Very painful—had to sell my primary residence). The realtor who had the contract knew of my zeal, and kept in constant contact by telephone with competing offers and advice.

When we were advised that the deal was finally sealed in our favor by telephone, in the background, I heard the entire realtor's office erupt in cheers!

The bottom line? Lakefront real estate has made things very comfortable for me—even when going against the backdrop of "common knowledge" real estate advice! Longterm, it can't be beat.

secondcurve · 06-12-2007, 07:03 AM

Irish Mist I think you potentially could be making a common mistake regarding projection forecasts by assuming that current conditions will prevail indefinitely into the future. Things can change. A couple of examples: Suppose sanity prevails and we finally limit the flow of illegals into this country? Or what if the USA goes into a deep recession and the need for illegals drops off along with the current unabated flow of these people?

Yes, real estate prices will increase over time, but usually not in a straight line up. Further, after such a large gain, it is only natural for them to decline.

Start watching the 10-year treasury yield. It is up again this morning after a 60 basis point increase over the past 10-trading days or so. This is a large move and if it continues, it will have a serious impact on the real estate market, even the expensive stuff because the whole food chain is interconnected.

Irish Mist, what did you think about the NASDAQ in the waning days of 1999? I think I know the answer to this question, but I'll let you respond.

Islander · 06-12-2007, 10:35 AM

The recent re-evaluation has caused many property values in Meredith to go way up. The new higher tax bills went out a week ago.

You asked about buying a piece of land. If someone has been holding on to a lot as an investment, they may think its a good time to sell.

vrrooom · 06-12-2007, 10:55 AM

I have lived on/near the lake for 25+ years, and yes there was one cycle where real estate values dropped -- early 90's when selling prices were 20% lower than prices in the late 80's. But we should all remember that almost all of the lake property is owned as second or part year property. Sellers are not motivated by moves to new jobs, family relocation issues; such as 2 mortages while waiting to sell the old home. That said, there may be situational buying opportunities, job loss, major illness, inhertiance taxes et al.
Finding these situational opportunities is challenging, as most realtors won't reveal them, but you can ask.

As I too are entering retirement next year, I have acquired a condo in Aransas Pass, TX which will cost me a lot less than the 5% income tax Concord is about to install. Winters on the Gulf , Summers on Winni, life is sweet, particulary without income tax and the governmental waste that comes with it.

Irish mist · 06-12-2007, 04:16 PM

Secodcurve this is all guess-work, so who knows. We have had open borders for over 40 years.....I'm not too confident that this is going to change anytime soon. I'm not surprised interest rates are going up.....it's about time. They are still at low levels. I expect housing to drop like I mentioned for at least another year or two. I don't expect a late 80s early 90s style collapse of 40%.

I pulled ALL my savings out of the stock market in the spring of 2000.......several months before the blow-out of the markets. So I know a little more about the market & real estate than you think I do

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welch100 · 06-30-2007, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ropetow

A friend who owns a local RE company said the uncertainty of 'tax-free' NH is a factor in the current slow market.

Can somebody explain to me how/why NH is considered to be "tax free" when the real estate tax is the second highest in the nation, exceeded only by NJ?

We have a cottage on an island. Obviously, we can use it for at most 6 months of the year, and our 100 y.o. cotage doesn't have any modern ammenities; we don't even have one full bath! I understand that the value is the lakefront land, but by any standard, our NH taxes are outrageous, *way* more than our property taxes in swanky suburb of Boston! I actually think our NH real estate taxes are just as much, as our total tax burden in so-called "Taxachusetts." We always thought we would retire to the NH seacoast, but are rethinking that because of the tax burden.

I'm no financial wizard, so I must be missing somehing. It seems to me that the notion of NH as some sort of tax haven is a myth. Can somebody please enlighen me?

idigtractors · 06-30-2007, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by welch100

Can somebody explain to me how/why NH is considered to be "tax free" when the real estate tax is the second highest in the nation, exceeded only by NJ?
We have a cottage on an island. Obviously, we can use it for at most 6 months of the year, and our 100 y.o. cottage doesn't have any modern amenities; we don't even have one full bath! I understand that the value is the lakefront land, but by any standard, our NH taxes are outrageous, *way* more than our property taxes in swanky suburb of Boston!

The main reasons for the high taxes is, you continue to pay them no matter how high they go and if you don't the next person behind you will and it just keeps on going. There is no sense in complaining because that is the way the world turns and I'm sure WE all knew it when we purchased our homes/cottages.

Lakegeezer · 06-30-2007, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by welch100

It seems to me that the notion of NH as some sort of tax haven is a myth. Can somebody please enlighen me?

If you are a NH citizen and make a high wage within the state, it is indeed a tax haven. This is one of the reasons the state attracts intelligent, professional and hard-working citizens. There is no income tax and no sales tax. There are taxes on interest and dividends (5% of amount over $2400/4800 joint), 8% meals and rooms, businesses, utilities and tobacco. Towns are funded through local property taxes, which as you discovered, are high - but most natives seem to prefer this approach to broadbase taxes.

welch100 · 06-30-2007, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lakegeezer

If you are a NH citizen and make a high wage within the state, it is indeed a tax haven.

Thanks Lakegeezer. That makes sense.

I did some research on tax burdens by state, and NH ranks #44; MA is #10. So, I was wrong in believing the high property tax in NH leveled it out. Interestingly, VT is #45, lower taxes than NH. That was a surprise. California is #1, followed by NY and Texas. The data comes from the 2004 US Census, found at http://www.statemaster.com/graph/eco...-burden#source

AC2717 · 07-05-2007, 11:08 AM

If real estate is coming down and we all agree, and I just got off the phone with the city and they are a market based tax base, why doesn't my taxes go down? do they just adjust the rate, funny hwo you neevr se eyoru value going down even though it is based off of market value and the price you purchased it for, or so they just told me about 5 minutes ago. I just do not not understand,

Someone please elaborate on this one because I am too confused, even more after i just finsihed with the Assesors and tacx offices for the city.

Irish mist · 07-06-2007, 04:43 PM

Lol, it works one way.......their way ! We have only ourselves to blame for this situation. We keeping voting into political office people who hold us in economic slavery. We are all but one voting cycle away from economic freedom....but I'm not Freud, so I can't begin to tell you why people do what they do to themselves.

The state of Virginia just issued a new $3,000 dollar speeding ticket......sort of copying Europe which issues speeding tickets as high as $20,000 dollars. If you let government.........it will take everything you value, or own from you. That's the nature of the beast. Americans USED to understand this !
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HONDA MT50

vrrooom · 07-07-2007, 09:29 AM

I noticed this the last time property values declined in the region, the assessors were very (3 years) slow in dropping the assessments whereas they are quick (each year) to up the assessments if a house sells comprable to yours. I would not expect the taxes to go down, unless there is a change in local government. I encourage all taxpayers to register and vote in their local towns, it is the only way we have a chance to eliminate the "taxation and spending without representation" epidemic in the lakes region. I have seen some data which indicatates that 80+% of the tax revenue comes from non resident taxpayers arround the lake. Wo Wo

Irish mist · 07-07-2007, 10:42 AM

My property taxes have gone up 110% in 9 years. The rate of inflation for these prior 9 years has run about 20%. I understand a city or town budget is different from the general inflation rate, but still.......110% !
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cowislander · 07-07-2007, 11:38 AM

Seems to me its a national problem.....we keep electing officials hell bent on slashing income taxes. Sounds good, but the net effect is a reduction in federal cash flow to the states, where the laws usually require a balanced budget. If you take from one group, another gets stuck giving to make up the difference. IMO, the real estate owners get stuck disproportionately balancing the state books. Too bad us RE owners dont have the lobbying clout of the better healed corporations and special interest groups down on K Street in DC......

gtxrider · 07-08-2007, 07:20 AM

Come to NJ we don't cut income taxes down here and books still don't balance. Robbing Peter to rob Paul.

06-09-2007, 10:18 PM	#2
Irish mist Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 686 Thanks: 128 Thanked 85 Times in 49 Posts	This is a difficult question......and this is JMO, so take it for what it's worth. For the first time in my memory prices in central NH have not gone down as fast as they have in the greater Boston area, or Massachusetts in general. In the past a vacation area like the lakes Region really would suffer much more than the rest of the state, and especially Boston. I'm guessing we are down about 5% in value whereas Boston is close to 15% down. This real estate slow-down started in about May 2005, and I suspect we are about half way through it. So if you wait a while longer to purchase real estate I suspect it will not hurt you. And will perhaps drop another 5% or so. What's changed in the Lakes Region from the past is that the baby-boomers are starting to retire, and this area has become a prime retirement place. Many people that would have gone to Florida in the past are having second thoughts because of the taxes & the horrible house insurance situation that has developed down there. I think that in 2 or 3 years from now prices are going to start going up again......fast ! BTW I'm not involved in the real estate industry, lol. I just have an interest in this subject. I would love to read some thoughts from local real estate pros on what they think the future of the central NH real estate market is ________ Toyota Curren Last edited by Irish mist; 02-27-2011 at 10:51 PM.

06-10-2007, 09:31 AM	#3
DREAMS Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 51 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Now Is The Time.. This has been a hot topic for 3 years since the highs and crash of 2004. I am not a real estate agent either so my opinions are only based on local living exposure and following the market for four years. The major opportunity we hear advertised which is a fact, you don't usually find a combination of lower purchase prices and lower interest rates. The combination has always been purchase low, pay higher interest and vice versa. If you really take a look around, the asking prices for most property has not really dropped considerably. People who have to sell properties for various reasons have been forced to accept lower offers to "move on" with their life and personal situations. If you are focusing on purchasing property in one of the lower tax rate towns such as Meredith, Moultonboro, etc., the key will always be location, location, location for purchase and resale. If you factor in the 15% to 18% tax deduction for interest paid on your second home purchase plus the annual tax deduction with a lower interest rate to purchase, you will have a good opportunity to get in the market and build equity. As the other gentleman pointed out, the Lakes Region has not taken a hit compared to residential properties in southen new hampshire. Real Estate has always been and will always be a key factor to savings and retirement - far better than earning a high of 5% in a CD or savings account. You can even increase your savings by purchasing a property to rent on a year round basis in the Meredith and Moultonboro areas where it is very difficult to rent a home year round! The majority of rental property is rented for seasonal basis but actually costs the owners more than renting to a party on an annual basis. If you see a good buy now, I would go for it! You will kick yourself later when you say I should have and didn't! Good Luck!

06-11-2007, 05:58 PM	#6
Irish mist Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 686 Thanks: 128 Thanked 85 Times in 49 Posts	jetskier, I have a friend in Naples who has lost about 35% of his property value since he built in 2004. Taxes in Florida have gone crazy. His house insurance is now about one thousand dollars a month......not a good environment. I agree about NH as a good retirement option. In the past I always thought that I would be down in Florida, but I recently purchased a larger condo up here, and am about 99% sure that NH is where I'm going to stay. If people have not checked out what is happening with costs in Florida they are going to be quite shocked. ________ Michigan medical marijuana dispensary Last edited by Irish mist; 02-27-2011 at 10:51 PM.

06-11-2007, 07:37 PM	#8
Pineedles Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Moultonborough & CT Posts: 2,549 Thanks: 1,074 Thanked 672 Times in 369 Posts	Retire where you want My parents sold their lakefront property in the late 80's for 250K (prime spot 200' of shore frontage) the buyer flipped the property and sold at a profit to someone that took down the house except for the stone fireplace, hearth, and chimney, and built a new house. Last year's assessment was 1.2m. You can't go wrong with lakefront! BUT! if you look at it as an investment, it is a normal equity holding.

06-11-2007, 09:27 PM	#12
Irish mist Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 686 Thanks: 128 Thanked 85 Times in 49 Posts	Knot Droolin, You are right on. If we keep this massive immigration up (the immigration bill just defeated in D.C. would bring in 70 million people in 20 years) real estate prices are going to go through the roof ! As these people pour into the country you are going to see massive building projcts forcing up prices everywhere. And since most of these immigrants will be poor; native born people will be leaving the southwest & places like Florida and coming to rural places like NH. ________ N platform Last edited by Irish mist; 02-27-2011 at 10:51 PM.

06-09-2007, 08:43 PM	#1
LadyJane Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: northern Ct. Posts: 335 Thanks: 129 Thanked 50 Times in 33 Posts	Land and real estate prices I know that real estate prices seem to be coming down a bit in many places, and I wondered what anyone's thoughts on that topic are? I am thinking about buying a little piece of land in the Meredith area, but some of the locals told me a while back that I should "wait til the bubble bursts" how do you think it is now? will the prices on land ever ease down a bit? Every time I come north I just hate leaving. I would love to get my foot in the door in this area.

06-11-2007, 05:24 PM	#4
MAXUM Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Kuna ID Posts: 2,755 Thanks: 246 Thanked 1,942 Times in 802 Posts	Inventory seems higher than it has in the past, but prices have not really moved in either direction. The "prime" property IE waterfront, seems to not be really effected probably due to the typical buyer who from what I understand typically have enough descretionary income to buy these places outright - even at the prices you see today. The only factor I could see being a deterant is the re-occuring tax bill. In the end what determines the prices is the motivation of the seller and what the buyer is willing to pay. Far as I can tell prices are not moving really in any direction or if they are "reduced" it's not by any significant amount considering the original asking price was high to begin with. Really it's no bargin to see a piece of property priced 20% over true market value then reduced 10% and advertised as a hell of a deal. Um - no it's still 10% higher than it should be. Of course this is based soley on the advertised asking price, the bottom line of what the sale price is on any given property could very well be substantially lower. That's where it's helpful to talk to some one in the know, a local agent. This is just my casual observation and not one of somebody who is in anyway connected to the real estate market. However I do find it interesting to keep tabs on what is for sale in the hopes that one day I might be in a position to lock up a little slice of waterfront for myself.

06-11-2007, 07:06 PM	#7
Ropetow Senior Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: Rochester, NH / Bartlett, NH Posts: 322 Thanks: 228 Thanked 33 Times in 13 Posts	I agree that NH is a great retirement option. That is our current plan. But let's wait and see what the folks in Concord come up with. The way they are headed with the school funding issue, an income tax will be here before you know it. I have some colleagues who are newly-elected Reps (Democrats) and they don't hide the fact that enacting a 4% - 6% income tax is their goal....pay for education and whatever social welfare programs they so desire. A friend who owns a local RE company said the uncertainty of 'tax-free' NH is a factor in the current slow market. He also said that sellers are asking too much and not coming down enough while buyers and wisely waiting. Some properties (attractive ones) are lingering on the market for years. His advice: If you see a piece of property you want, offer what you think it is worth. He recently had a sale where the seller accepted an offer 20% less than the asking price. You never know....

06-11-2007, 08:05 PM	#9
secondcurve Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,128 Thanks: 1,349 Thanked 564 Times in 291 Posts	In my opinion, prices in the near term will continue to behave well. Longer term, it's probably a downward trend. I think the one thing real estate bulls are forgetting is that this "downturn" has been happening in an excellent macro environment. Specifically, interest rates are low (6% for a 30-year fixed, until just the past week), unemployment is non-existent (around 4.5% last month) and the stock market has been robust. Against this backdrop, it is surprising that there has been any downturn at all. If any of the above variables change substantially there will be a significant real estate downturn. Remember, low interest rates inflate all asset classes, including real estate. If you are in a position to buy, or need to buy, go ahead and make the purchase. On the other hand, if you are going to retire in 5-10 years, or are considering borrowing heavily to make your purchase, be patient as I am pretty sure there will be a better entry point. A second home area such as Winnipesaukee becomes very vunerable in a gut wrenching recession.

06-11-2007, 08:20 PM	#10
Knot Droolin' Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 31 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Something to think about It took the US 200+ years to reach 300 million in popuation. At the current rate of growth this country is expected to be at 400 million by 2042. What do you think that will do to land prices over the next 35 years? Source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...pulation_x.htm

06-11-2007, 09:00 PM	#11
Ropetow Senior Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: Rochester, NH / Bartlett, NH Posts: 322 Thanks: 228 Thanked 33 Times in 13 Posts	Profile Bank, Alton: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 30-year term -- 6.875% Laconia Savings Bank: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 30-year term -- 6.750% They are creeping up....

06-11-2007, 09:34 PM	#13
Flylady Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: So. California & Lakes Region Posts: 256 Thanks: 225 Thanked 106 Times in 61 Posts	When to buy.. For whats its worth, if you can swing it and find what you like, considering all of the advice from this forum and with a good agent and reseach if you find your piece of heaven in your price range, make an offer. 10% to 20% offers below asking prices have been done, especially when it is at the end of the season and the owner doesn't want to go through another winter with all the hassels and expenses. Over time waterfront will increase with demand as the population continues to grow and more boomers retire with a lot of cash in their pockets.

06-11-2007, 09:51 PM	#14
fatlazyless Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 8,910 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 305 Thanked 1,051 Times in 765 Posts	Is there an issue with the water quality what with the American Express ads with Ellen DeGeneris that just started running maybe one week ago? Usually the lake water looks and smells pretty pristine. My cozy cottage near buoy 3 gets lots and lots of wave action, too. Today, it was loaded with yellow pollen. Went for a swim today at 4pm, and when I got out, something was smelling fishy, or something. Sniff, sniff, sniff, is a soapy shower needed now after a swim. What is that smell? Oh, guess what, it's me.......but what is that smell doing in the water? Plus, on top of the smell, there is big trout or salmon, cannot tell which, which must be guarding its' eggs, because it nipped me on the toes twice while I was fumbling with a dock support.

06-12-2007, 07:03 AM	#16
secondcurve Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,128 Thanks: 1,349 Thanked 564 Times in 291 Posts	Irish Mist I think you potentially could be making a common mistake regarding projection forecasts by assuming that current conditions will prevail indefinitely into the future. Things can change. A couple of examples: Suppose sanity prevails and we finally limit the flow of illegals into this country? Or what if the USA goes into a deep recession and the need for illegals drops off along with the current unabated flow of these people? Yes, real estate prices will increase over time, but usually not in a straight line up. Further, after such a large gain, it is only natural for them to decline. Start watching the 10-year treasury yield. It is up again this morning after a 60 basis point increase over the past 10-trading days or so. This is a large move and if it continues, it will have a serious impact on the real estate market, even the expensive stuff because the whole food chain is interconnected. Irish Mist, what did you think about the NASDAQ in the waning days of 1999? I think I know the answer to this question, but I'll let you respond.

06-12-2007, 10:35 AM	#17
Islander Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 321 Thanks: 0 Thanked 9 Times in 3 Posts	The recent re-evaluation has caused many property values in Meredith to go way up. The new higher tax bills went out a week ago. You asked about buying a piece of land. If someone has been holding on to a lot as an investment, they may think its a good time to sell.

06-12-2007, 10:55 AM	#18
vrrooom Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Gilford Posts: 50 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Cycles, the lake, und Zoll I have lived on/near the lake for 25+ years, and yes there was one cycle where real estate values dropped -- early 90's when selling prices were 20% lower than prices in the late 80's. But we should all remember that almost all of the lake property is owned as second or part year property. Sellers are not motivated by moves to new jobs, family relocation issues; such as 2 mortages while waiting to sell the old home. That said, there may be situational buying opportunities, job loss, major illness, inhertiance taxes et al. Finding these situational opportunities is challenging, as most realtors won't reveal them, but you can ask. As I too are entering retirement next year, I have acquired a condo in Aransas Pass, TX which will cost me a lot less than the 5% income tax Concord is about to install. Winters on the Gulf , Summers on Winni, life is sweet, particulary without income tax and the governmental waste that comes with it.

06-12-2007, 04:16 PM	#19
Irish mist Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 686 Thanks: 128 Thanked 85 Times in 49 Posts	Secodcurve this is all guess-work, so who knows. We have had open borders for over 40 years.....I'm not too confident that this is going to change anytime soon. I'm not surprised interest rates are going up.....it's about time. They are still at low levels. I expect housing to drop like I mentioned for at least another year or two. I don't expect a late 80s early 90s style collapse of 40%. I pulled ALL my savings out of the stock market in the spring of 2000.......several months before the blow-out of the markets. So I know a little more about the market & real estate than you think I do ________ Ecstasy rehab forum Last edited by Irish mist; 02-27-2011 at 10:52 PM.

07-05-2007, 11:08 AM	#24
AC2717 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Maynard, MA & Paugus Bay Posts: 2,587 Thanks: 756 Thanked 356 Times in 268 Posts	Real estate taxes If real estate is coming down and we all agree, and I just got off the phone with the city and they are a market based tax base, why doesn't my taxes go down? do they just adjust the rate, funny hwo you neevr se eyoru value going down even though it is based off of market value and the price you purchased it for, or so they just told me about 5 minutes ago. I just do not not understand, Someone please elaborate on this one because I am too confused, even more after i just finsihed with the Assesors and tacx offices for the city.

07-06-2007, 04:43 PM	#25
Irish mist Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 686 Thanks: 128 Thanked 85 Times in 49 Posts	Lol, it works one way.......their way ! We have only ourselves to blame for this situation. We keeping voting into political office people who hold us in economic slavery. We are all but one voting cycle away from economic freedom....but I'm not Freud, so I can't begin to tell you why people do what they do to themselves. The state of Virginia just issued a new $3,000 dollar speeding ticket......sort of copying Europe which issues speeding tickets as high as $20,000 dollars. If you let government.........it will take everything you value, or own from you. That's the nature of the beast. Americans USED to understand this ! ________ HONDA MT50 Last edited by Irish mist; 02-27-2011 at 10:52 PM.

07-07-2007, 09:29 AM	#26
vrrooom Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Gilford Posts: 50 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Taxes go down? I noticed this the last time property values declined in the region, the assessors were very (3 years) slow in dropping the assessments whereas they are quick (each year) to up the assessments if a house sells comprable to yours. I would not expect the taxes to go down, unless there is a change in local government. I encourage all taxpayers to register and vote in their local towns, it is the only way we have a chance to eliminate the "taxation and spending without representation" epidemic in the lakes region. I have seen some data which indicatates that 80+% of the tax revenue comes from non resident taxpayers arround the lake. Wo Wo

07-07-2007, 10:42 AM	#27
Irish mist Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 686 Thanks: 128 Thanked 85 Times in 49 Posts	My property taxes have gone up 110% in 9 years. The rate of inflation for these prior 9 years has run about 20%. I understand a city or town budget is different from the general inflation rate, but still.......110% ! ________ BUSES Last edited by Irish mist; 02-27-2011 at 10:52 PM.

07-07-2007, 11:38 AM	#28
cowislander Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Topsfield Posts: 63 Thanks: 9 Thanked 14 Times in 6 Posts	Balancing the books Seems to me its a national problem.....we keep electing officials hell bent on slashing income taxes. Sounds good, but the net effect is a reduction in federal cash flow to the states, where the laws usually require a balanced budget. If you take from one group, another gets stuck giving to make up the difference. IMO, the real estate owners get stuck disproportionately balancing the state books. Too bad us RE owners dont have the lobbying clout of the better healed corporations and special interest groups down on K Street in DC......

07-08-2007, 07:20 AM	#29
gtxrider Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Piscataway, NJ Posts: 1,030 Thanks: 2 Thanked 46 Times in 24 Posts	Cut taxes? ya right Come to NJ we don't cut income taxes down here and books still don't balance. Robbing Peter to rob Paul.