Ice-Out 2008

Blue Thunder · 03-10-2008, 12:52 PM

Are we of the opinion that the "out" process has begun????

BT

codeman671 · 03-10-2008, 01:02 PM

I say early for sure, lots of water on the ice now and certainly not the thickness/setup that we had last year. Certainly plenty of snow- I heard there is 3-4 feet on my deck at Mark as of Saturday.

I had guessed the 18th but my gut tells me sooner. Not as early as 2 years ago, but somewhere in between the last 2.

Island Girl · 03-10-2008, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blue Thunder

Are we of the opinion that the "out" process has begun????

BT

This thread starts around this time each year.... sometimes a little earlier... It is March... it will get warmer... this thread might be slow for a little while, but it will get very active shortly!!! How is Sebago

IG

Blue Thunder · 03-10-2008, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Island Girl

This thread starts around this time each year.... sometimes a little earlier... It is March... it will get warmer... this thread might be slow for a little while, but it will get very active shortly!!! How is Sebago?

IG

Sebago Lake is still mostly frozen although the Main Bay didn't lock in until Feb 22nd. There are many areas that are not/never were safe but plenty that are such as the "Station" in Standish and Jordan Bay in Raymond. In all the years that I have followed it and made comparisons, Winnipesaukee and Sebago have "ice out" within days of each other.

( Secret: IG used to come to Sebago many years ago before her beloved Rattlesnake)

BT

CanisLupusArctos · 03-10-2008, 08:47 PM

This year, there are some different processes eroding the lake ice, other than direct warmth-on-ice. Today on a south-facing shore I saw the sun had melted away all the snow on an exposed part of the shore, and the resulting meltwater had flowed into the lake, eroding the ice right at that spot.

I would also guess that weakening will occur as the flow gets going from all the meltwater we'll have soon... runoff in, dam water out...

Since we are in an active weather pattern there is also good chance that a storm will take it out, like last year. Had it not been for the April 16 storm with its 64-mph wind gust (sustained at 45 mph for a couple of hours), last year's ice would've lasted a lot longer I think. It got busted up by force and 80-degree temps melted the pieces a few days later.

chipj29 · 03-11-2008, 06:43 AM

I think that the end of March into April will end up being a bit colder than normal. This just might delay ice out. Heck, I hit 8* at my house last night.

Island Girl · 03-11-2008, 07:21 AM

This year's ice formation was different than usual. I don't think we got the solid thick black ice that forms the base and takes longer to melt. The ice also has layers of snow that may melt more easily than the more dense stuff..

Remains to be seen... I could be wrong, but I think the melt will be fast. It may be cold now... but the sun is high and we have that extra hour at the end of the day...

This is always an exciting part of the year for me..

IG

CanisLupusArctos · 03-11-2008, 09:08 AM

The ice formed completely from snow this year, as opposed to last year's 'black' ice. It was December's snows that started to freeze the lake over beginning on the 3rd. "Snow ice" is not as high quality as "Black ice" because it's flaky and has lots of air pockets in it. Then it kept snowing on top of it, and snow is actually a very good insulator so it kept the ice from attaining the quality it had last year when it froze long before we got a good dumping of snow. Daylight Saving Time won't do anything to melt it, because while DST made sunrise & sunset an hour later by our clocks, the length of time between sunrise and sunset is still the same.

IG, I wasn't sure if you were serious or just kidding around, but since a few people have asked me seriously about that in person ("will the extra hour of daylight help to melt all this snow?"), I figured I'd clarify it for anyone else who's seriously wondering. DST does the same exact thing as if we just told all the schools and workplaces to begin & end daily operations an hour earlier, but that would have a different psychological effect on us. In effect, we're going to work/school an hour earlier than we were last week but the clock change makes us rave about the 'longer' afternoon instead of complaining about having to wake up an hour earlier. The government's rationale behind the earlier DST is that afternoon daylight is more useful to us than morning daylight, so by having us do all our work an hour earlier in the day they're hoping we'll spend more time outdoors in the afternoon instead of consuming electricity indoors. Morning isn't a peak energy-usage time, but afternoon usually is.

Interestingly, the ice has made more "growth-booms" in the last couple of cold nights than I've heard all winter. Might be that the rain storm killed all the insulating fluff on top, for the first time all winter.

bilproject · 03-11-2008, 09:55 AM

The underlying water seems to be a degree or 2 warmer than last year. Last year on the 9th of March water going over the dam was 33 degrees. This year it has remained a consistant 35 degrees. (This is a mix of shallow and deeper water.) As CLA said water running over the ice or on top of the ice has the same erroding effect as it has on rock or dirt. There also is no frost in undisturbed areas. This will cause the snow pack to melt from below once temps remain above freezing for longer periods. The snow will leave much the same way frost leaves the ground from the bottom up. Check Black Cat water temps at 2 ft and 10 ft both are above 32 degrees. Relatively warm runoff will increase water temps below the ice rapidly. My guess the first week of April we'll be boating. I got in 3 days on the lake before official ice out last year thanks to the Noreaster!!

Chris Exley · 03-11-2008, 10:30 AM

http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Feature..._update_07.htm

03-10-2008, 12:52 PM	#1
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 951 Thanks: 252 Thanked 351 Times in 158 Posts	Are we of the opinion that the "out" process has begun???? BT __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

03-10-2008, 01:02 PM	#2
codeman671 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,503 Thanks: 221 Thanked 816 Times in 489 Posts	I say early for sure, lots of water on the ice now and certainly not the thickness/setup that we had last year. Certainly plenty of snow- I heard there is 3-4 feet on my deck at Mark as of Saturday. I had guessed the 18th but my gut tells me sooner. Not as early as 2 years ago, but somewhere in between the last 2. Last edited by codeman671; 03-10-2008 at 01:07 PM. Reason: typo

03-10-2008, 08:47 PM	#5
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	maybe a differernt process This year, there are some different processes eroding the lake ice, other than direct warmth-on-ice. Today on a south-facing shore I saw the sun had melted away all the snow on an exposed part of the shore, and the resulting meltwater had flowed into the lake, eroding the ice right at that spot. I would also guess that weakening will occur as the flow gets going from all the meltwater we'll have soon... runoff in, dam water out... Since we are in an active weather pattern there is also good chance that a storm will take it out, like last year. Had it not been for the April 16 storm with its 64-mph wind gust (sustained at 45 mph for a couple of hours), last year's ice would've lasted a lot longer I think. It got busted up by force and 80-degree temps melted the pieces a few days later.

03-11-2008, 07:21 AM	#7
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,352 Thanks: 18 Thanked 535 Times in 179 Posts	Ice quality This year's ice formation was different than usual. I don't think we got the solid thick black ice that forms the base and takes longer to melt. The ice also has layers of snow that may melt more easily than the more dense stuff.. Remains to be seen... I could be wrong, but I think the melt will be fast. It may be cold now... but the sun is high and we have that extra hour at the end of the day... This is always an exciting part of the year for me.. IG __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

03-11-2008, 10:30 AM	#10
Chris Exley Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Mirror Lake, NH and Royersford, PA Posts: 134 Thanks: 26 Thanked 15 Times in 7 Posts	Link to the Ice Out page (Silver Sands) http://www.nhboat.com/Nhboat/Feature..._update_07.htm

03-11-2008, 06:43 AM	#6
chipj29 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Bow Posts: 1,874 Thanks: 521 Thanked 308 Times in 162 Posts	I think that the end of March into April will end up being a bit colder than normal. This just might delay ice out. Heck, I hit 8* at my house last night.

03-11-2008, 09:08 AM	#8
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	The ice formed completely from snow this year, as opposed to last year's 'black' ice. It was December's snows that started to freeze the lake over beginning on the 3rd. "Snow ice" is not as high quality as "Black ice" because it's flaky and has lots of air pockets in it. Then it kept snowing on top of it, and snow is actually a very good insulator so it kept the ice from attaining the quality it had last year when it froze long before we got a good dumping of snow. Daylight Saving Time won't do anything to melt it, because while DST made sunrise & sunset an hour later by our clocks, the length of time between sunrise and sunset is still the same. IG, I wasn't sure if you were serious or just kidding around, but since a few people have asked me seriously about that in person ("will the extra hour of daylight help to melt all this snow?"), I figured I'd clarify it for anyone else who's seriously wondering. DST does the same exact thing as if we just told all the schools and workplaces to begin & end daily operations an hour earlier, but that would have a different psychological effect on us. In effect, we're going to work/school an hour earlier than we were last week but the clock change makes us rave about the 'longer' afternoon instead of complaining about having to wake up an hour earlier. The government's rationale behind the earlier DST is that afternoon daylight is more useful to us than morning daylight, so by having us do all our work an hour earlier in the day they're hoping we'll spend more time outdoors in the afternoon instead of consuming electricity indoors. Morning isn't a peak energy-usage time, but afternoon usually is. Interestingly, the ice has made more "growth-booms" in the last couple of cold nights than I've heard all winter. Might be that the rain storm killed all the insulating fluff on top, for the first time all winter.

03-11-2008, 09:55 AM	#9
bilproject Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Bear Island/Fort Myers, Fla Posts: 231 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 1 Thanked 59 Times in 41 Posts	The underlying water seems to be a degree or 2 warmer than last year. Last year on the 9th of March water going over the dam was 33 degrees. This year it has remained a consistant 35 degrees. (This is a mix of shallow and deeper water.) As CLA said water running over the ice or on top of the ice has the same erroding effect as it has on rock or dirt. There also is no frost in undisturbed areas. This will cause the snow pack to melt from below once temps remain above freezing for longer periods. The snow will leave much the same way frost leaves the ground from the bottom up. Check Black Cat water temps at 2 ft and 10 ft both are above 32 degrees. Relatively warm runoff will increase water temps below the ice rapidly. My guess the first week of April we'll be boating. I got in 3 days on the lake before official ice out last year thanks to the Noreaster!!