Ice-Out 2008

dan · 03-22-2008, 10:10 PM

Right on both accounts.

Weekend Pundit · 03-23-2008, 05:04 PM

I'm guessing it's going to be a 'normal' Ice Out, with it occurring sometime around Tax Day (April 15th). I'll even hazard a guess as to the time: 3:30PM.

Merrymeeting · 03-23-2008, 08:11 PM

The water temperature seems to determine ice-out more than most other indicators. If you look at the temperature history on this website you will see it is amazingly consistent in late March. We are on track and should see a degree increase sometime in the next 10 days!

nj2nh · 03-24-2008, 02:21 PM

In the "contest," I picked April 15th at about 2:30. I hope great minds think alike on this one.

Oh, and my guess was sent from Jersey. I actually won the ice out contest held by the "Main Street" newsletter in Alton a few years back. I randomly picked my son's birthday and that was the winner.

Didn't work after that, though.

nj2nh

spotsink · 03-24-2008, 03:58 PM

"Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.)"

IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large?

More on topic for this thread - ahve they started the annual "Ice Out" guessing contest? Historically April 20th is a good guess - a high percentage of ice outs around that day... time will tell.

Island Girl · 03-25-2008, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spotsink

IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large?

I use copper.net for an isp and they have local phone numbers... most ips's do. The phone call is usually less than a minute, every ten minutes.

Bear Islander has a lot of information on setting up a webcam on his bearcam site. http://www.bearcam1.com/cam_info.htm

IG

Water Camper · 03-24-2008, 04:13 PM

IG and Blue Thunder,

I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead.

Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess.

A Maniac for Life,
Bill

Blue Thunder · 03-25-2008, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Water Camper

IG and Blue Thunder,

I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead.

Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess.

A Maniac for Life,
Bill

Hey Bill,
For clarification purposes, Island Girl's love for island living was forged by some stays on Sebago and Frye Island many years ago. She is and has been on Rattlesnake for some time now. I'm the outcast (some will say) over on Sebago, this being my 40th year of either vacationing or owning here. I do however, have a genuine interest in the NH Lakes region and try to participate in this wonderful forum for the greater good.

You're right, the water quality of Sebago Lake is unparalleled in New England and the boating here is a lot less hazardous than Winnipesaukee even though the lake is 45 square miles of water. I camped at the State Park as a kid and an adult and had a seasonal at Point Sebago for seven years.

Thanks for chiming in,

Blue Thunder

Pepper · 03-26-2008, 05:11 PM

My drive around Alton Bay this afternoon revealed a LOT of standing water on top of the ice. A quick check of all the cams on the Ice-Out page indicates the same condition all over the lake, so today's warm air and sunshine is doing it's part. The ice is dwindling, slowly, but it is going!

CanisLupusArctos · 03-27-2008, 04:11 PM

Today another lead became evident, opening between Black Cat Shoals and Three Mile Island. Once it opens, it will form a water channel between Black Cat and Three Mile, with the shoals as a midpoint.

This is important because the strongest and most frequent wind in this area (NW and SE) runs perpendicular to where the lead is setting up (SW to NE). The wind will be able to widen the crack on both sides and tear the ice right out if we get a windy storm.

Also today, the surface temp at Black Cat WeatherCam went to 35 for the first time since ice-in. This was in response to the depth temp (10 feet) rising to 35 in the last 24 hours after remaining at 33/34 all winter. Both temperatures are now equal at 35. The water is quickly working its way toward its non-winter pattern in which the surface is warmer than underneath.

Tomorrow may be a minor set-back as snow falls on the water surface... this usually has a cooling effect that may result in some weak re-freezing of open areas.

CanisLupusArctos · 03-24-2008, 04:33 PM

Looks can be deceieving because there has been car and sled traffic on this ice this past weekend, but the color scheme in this Black Cat WeatherCam image seems tropical. One thing to note is the presence of a lot of standing water on the ice adjacent to that crack between the island and the shoals. That's how it starts.

Pepper · 03-25-2008, 09:06 AM

I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate?

I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky?

Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though!

Island Girl · 03-25-2008, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pepper

I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate?

I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky?

Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though!

Well, there you are, woman. You have come up for air???

When the ice gets a dull gray color it is getting punky.

IG

Pepper · 03-25-2008, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Well, there you are, woman. You have come up for air???

When the ice gets a dull gray color it is getting punky.

IG

I've apparently been trapped in blue ice and finally came up for air!

03-23-2008, 05:04 PM	#2
Weekend Pundit Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Gilford Posts: 349 Thanks: 26 Thanked 69 Times in 42 Posts	Ice Out Prediction for 2008 I'm guessing it's going to be a 'normal' Ice Out, with it occurring sometime around Tax Day (April 15th). I'll even hazard a guess as to the time: 3:30PM.

03-23-2008, 08:11 PM	#3
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	The water temperature seems to determine ice-out more than most other indicators. If you look at the temperature history on this website you will see it is amazingly consistent in late March. We are on track and should see a degree increase sometime in the next 10 days! Last edited by Merrymeeting; 03-24-2008 at 04:03 PM.

03-24-2008, 02:21 PM	#4
nj2nh Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: NJ Posts: 529 Thanks: 80 Thanked 47 Times in 27 Posts	Hey, Weekend Pundit! In the "contest," I picked April 15th at about 2:30. I hope great minds think alike on this one. Oh, and my guess was sent from Jersey. I actually won the ice out contest held by the "Main Street" newsletter in Alton a few years back. I randomly picked my son's birthday and that was the winner. Didn't work after that, though. nj2nh __________________

03-24-2008, 03:58 PM	#5
spotsink Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 79 Thanks: 9 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	East side of the lake "Just a few years ago there was just the WeirsCam from our beloved webmaster.... and now most of the lake is represented (still waiting for someone to run with it from Moultonboro.)" IG - I've long toyed with the idea of setting up a web cam at our place in Tuftonboro - looking northeast toward Mt. Shaw perhaps - but am too much a techno novice to know what to do or how to do it... electric power and a phone line are the basic requirements right? and then the camera with its own web server... dosen't the phone bill get rather large? More on topic for this thread - ahve they started the annual "Ice Out" guessing contest? Historically April 20th is a good guess - a high percentage of ice outs around that day... time will tell.

03-24-2008, 04:13 PM	#7
Water Camper Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Pembroke, NH / Laconia, NH Posts: 451 Thanks: 10 Thanked 207 Times in 89 Posts	Sebago Lake IG and Blue Thunder, I grew up in Auburn, Me and spent many weeks camping with family at the State Park. As an adult did Point Sebago numerous times as well as the State Park. Can't beat the water quality or the ability to cruise up the Songo to Brandy and Long Lake. Now living in NH Winni is the place, but if Sebago were closer would probably be going there instead. Came back down the west side of the lake yesterday, the road is a mess. A Maniac for Life, Bill

03-22-2008, 10:10 PM	#1
dan Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: moultonborough/billerica Posts: 42 Thanks: 21 Thanked 7 Times in 4 Posts	Right on both accounts.

03-26-2008, 05:11 PM	#9
Pepper Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Laconia, NH Posts: 1,284 Thanks: 409 Thanked 155 Times in 40 Posts	It's melting!!!!!!!!!!! My drive around Alton Bay this afternoon revealed a LOT of standing water on top of the ice. A quick check of all the cams on the Ice-Out page indicates the same condition all over the lake, so today's warm air and sunshine is doing it's part. The ice is dwindling, slowly, but it is going! __________________ Never waste time lamenting what was. Simply celebrate what is!

03-27-2008, 04:11 PM	#10
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	another lead Today another lead became evident, opening between Black Cat Shoals and Three Mile Island. Once it opens, it will form a water channel between Black Cat and Three Mile, with the shoals as a midpoint. This is important because the strongest and most frequent wind in this area (NW and SE) runs perpendicular to where the lead is setting up (SW to NE). The wind will be able to widen the crack on both sides and tear the ice right out if we get a windy storm. Also today, the surface temp at Black Cat WeatherCam went to 35 for the first time since ice-in. This was in response to the depth temp (10 feet) rising to 35 in the last 24 hours after remaining at 33/34 all winter. Both temperatures are now equal at 35. The water is quickly working its way toward its non-winter pattern in which the surface is warmer than underneath. Tomorrow may be a minor set-back as snow falls on the water surface... this usually has a cooling effect that may result in some weak re-freezing of open areas.

03-24-2008, 04:33 PM	#11
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Looks like tropical blue... Looks can be deceieving because there has been car and sled traffic on this ice this past weekend, but the color scheme in this Black Cat WeatherCam image seems tropical. One thing to note is the presence of a lot of standing water on the ice adjacent to that crack between the island and the shoals. That's how it starts. Attached Images

03-25-2008, 09:06 AM	#12
Pepper Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Laconia, NH Posts: 1,284 Thanks: 409 Thanked 155 Times in 40 Posts	I've been noticing that blue tone in the ice for about a week and a half, getting more blue each day. Driving around the bay in Alton, and all the way through Gilford it is really noticable. Not being knowledgable about the ice I've assumed that it means it's getting much thinner. Is this accurate? I don't recall ever noticing the blue color like this before, and so I also wondered if perhaps it was the ice reflecting the color of the sky? Either way, it is quite beautiful! It would be much more beautiful if it were melted, though! __________________ Never waste time lamenting what was. Simply celebrate what is!