Ice-Out 2008

flyguy · 04-22-2008, 10:22 AM

Have to admit, I was counting on those 50+ degree days in the forecast to slow down the melt. Since that didn't happen, I did the next best thing- I PUT MY SNOWBLOWER AWAY- That should bring just enough really cold, snowy weather to delay IceOut a few days!!!

Don't forget, it ain't over 'til the Mount can make it to ALL it's ports. I hope to go take another look in a day or so. (Maybe I'll fly with Dave Emerson - is that considered cheating, IG? )

(That's me trying be wildly optimistic while saving my change for that lobster roll!!)

BlackCatIslander · 04-22-2008, 12:06 PM

At 40 degrees, we have caught up with last year quickly. It looks that ice out should be official by the week end at the very latest. Then we can get the dock in and pick up the boat!

CanisLupusArctos · 04-22-2008, 12:57 PM

This morning, once again, there was a 100-foot-thick layer of fog hanging over the ice. During the winter, fog is a good sign of a rapidly diminishing snow pack, and it's not much different with lake ice instead of snow. What's key is that the temp was above freezing (35) this morning. With 100% humidity (fog) there was no possibility for evaporation in open parts of the lake to cool the surface below freezing. Therefore the water temp had a much higher starting point once the sun came up.

Iceout seems set to occur as soon as "the last straw" falls. The water temp here is playing with the 40-degree mark at the surface and has remained 39 underneath. The temp around the area is now pretty uniform at 71 degrees while we're 52 on the island. Once again the SE wind has kicked up, driven by this temperature difference between land and lake.

While I don't see strong wind in the forecast, I still see the mainland hitting 80 tomorrow and I see shifting winds.

For the past few days we've been locked into this lake breeze which has blown all the ice up from SE to NW where it's been locked against the islands and shorelines. It needs stirring, and I think we have a shot at getting a little stirring tomorrow and Thursday.

Winds will shift into the SW tomorrow as a cold front approaches (winds ahead of a cold front tend to blow along it.) Tomorrow night the front will pass, causing winds to shift into the NW. Any ice that remains after tomorrow's heat will likely endure the cold front's rain showers and then get blown back down to the Barndoor end of the lake when the front passes.

wifi · 04-22-2008, 01:47 PM

Its certainly looking and feeling dry, in the areas there is no snow or run off, atleast to me Are we heading into a dryer than normal season, (with forest fire danger) or are we going to be growing those ticks, mosquitoes and black flies again ?

Island Girl · 04-22-2008, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flyguy

Don't forget, it ain't over 'til the Mount can make it to ALL it's ports. I hope to go take another look in a day or so. (Maybe I'll fly with Dave Emerson - is that considered cheating, IG? )

(That's me trying be wildly optimistic while saving my change for that lobster roll!!)

Go on and fly with Dave... can I come?

Blue Thunder · 04-22-2008, 03:01 PM

IG, you've got a PM.....

BT

CanisLupusArctos · 04-22-2008, 10:44 PM

This evening we have seen a change in the weather. The southeast lake breeze of the past several days has now shifted into the west. This will mean much warmer weather for tomorrow since it is a breeze from off the continent instead of the ocean. For most of NH south and east of the Appalachian Mountains, it also means warmer by pressure. Air heats up due to increased pressure as it loses elevation, and we'll be getting some of that tomorrow, too.

Since most locations around here were in the upper 70s today (including Laconia), I am guessing mid-80s will be pretty common for tomorrow. This combined with two different wind directions expected (SW shifting to NW) should stir the ice around, keep it moving instead of crammed up against one side of the lake, and may well result in iceout tomorrow.

Even at this late hour the surface water temp at Black Cat WeatherCam is holding at 39 degrees, and the dewpoint isn't much lower than the temperature so there's not a whole lot of evaporation cooling that can take place on the lake tonight. Should serve as a springboard to push the water temp above 40 tomorrow with summer weather and even a chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. A few places may have them but not everyone.

Grady223 · 04-23-2008, 08:14 AM

Water temperature has hit 40 degrees, any day now - with 16 mph northwest winds expected tomorrow - we are on the brink. Opening the island house next weekend is a certainty - I was doubtful a week ago!

Island Girl · 04-23-2008, 08:48 AM

It is hard to focus on work this morning with the incredible changes every few minutes on the ice melt. The webcams that still show a little ice change with every picture... less and less ice.. such fun to watch!

Welcome to spring!
IG

Steveo · 04-23-2008, 12:17 PM

Depending on when Emersons flys I would say Ice Out could be today. Right now ports that are clear are: Weirs Beach, Alton and Wolfboro (one small flow about to self destruct). I am not sure of Meredith and Center Harbor. If Emersons flys this afternoon I bet it will be declared; otherwise it will definately be tomorrow.

CanisLupusArctos · 04-23-2008, 12:30 PM

Shifting winds during the night and morning have resulted in the various icebergs becoming separated finally. They are now drifting as individuals in the lake. Several of them are still blocking the path of the MOUNT to the southeast of Black Cat Island. However, the SW wind ahead of the approaching cold front hasn't gotten strong enough to fight the SE lake breeze entirely. This has resulted in alternating SE-SW winds which are keeping the lake stirring and the icebergs moving in circles. The motion combined with the heat of the day (still a few hours away) is melting them rapidly.

The water temp has risen to 43 today at the surface and remains 39 underneath.

The temperature at the WeatherCam rises a few degrees every time the wind comes from the SW and falls when it kicks back to the SE. It's been a very topsy-turvy day for temps here, with a high of 66 so far. In Laconia and Plymouth the noontime temp is up to 75, and Rochester has already hit 80. The highest can be expected about 3 p.m.

Tonight, winds will shift into the NW behind the cold front. It is a weak front, so we're not expecting a huge temp drop tomorrow. NWS has updated tomorrow and Friday temps to 70.

Bear Islander · 04-23-2008, 12:49 PM

The last of the ice can be seen on some of the IceOut Cams.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

I like the shifting winds part because I am trying to make a time lapse ice out video. Shifting winds makes the ice dance.

TimmyG · 04-23-2008, 01:03 PM

Wow, this weather sure has been a joy. I was hesitant but I finally put away the snow blower. I don't think I jinxed anything as I had my fingers crossed when I did. I am currently in Boston where my car temp showed 86 degrees when I went for lunch.

If the rain holds off for Saturday morning I am launching at Fay's. I have been watching the webcams constantly. Haven't had this much fun since I worked at a mushroom farm!

TG

Formula260SS · 04-23-2008, 02:26 PM

Am I the only one not getting anything done today ?

BlackCatIslander · 04-23-2008, 02:54 PM

I am wondering whether it will safe to put the dock in yet. From the live cams, one gets the impression that the ice is dissappearing rapidly. However, windblown ice can cause extensive damage to docks. Any opinions?

codeman671 · 04-23-2008, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Formula260SS

Am I the only one not getting anything done today ?

I have accomplished nothing today. 20+ times to the webcams and checking the forum every 10 minutes... We are dropping a boat in Friday morning whether it has been declared or not.

Webbsatwinni · 04-23-2008, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by codeman671

I have accomplished nothing today. 20+ times to the webcams and checking the forum every 10 minutes... We are dropping a boat in Friday morning whether it has been declared or not.

Same here, I have been so unproductive today. It sounds silly when you say it's because I am watching ice melt. I am glad to know that I am not the only one.

We planned a family event for this weekend a few weeks ago thinking there was no way ice-out could happen, so I will be watching the other boats on the web cams all weekend log.

But it's better than the original plan of the weekend after.

Island Girl · 04-23-2008, 03:15 PM

On ice out day... are you kidding.. how can we work!!!!! You are not alone, Formula260ss.

TimmyG · 04-23-2008, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Island Girl

On ice out day... are you kidding.. how can we work!!!!! You are not alone, Formula260ss.

I am sure this is a silly question, and the answer will be very evident, but how will we know when Ice-Out is officially declared?

TG

2 Islands · 04-23-2008, 03:39 PM

We went out to Mink Island late yesterday afternoon from Shep Brown's. We are the boat you saw Fatlazyless!. We dropped the dock, put on the planks and had dinner on the dock. It was absolutely beautiful. It is finally Island Time.

Steveo · 04-23-2008, 03:54 PM

Boy am I glad I'm not the only nut case watching ice melt. Totally unproductive day but a hell of a lot of fun.

Slickcraft · 04-23-2008, 04:03 PM

We made a slow but pleasant trip over to Welch Island at 11:00 am today in the wife's Whaler picking-up several blocks of wood on the way. There were a few small patches of ice at the time. We got the seasonal dock down, no damage to the main dock/breakwater. We did not see damage to any breakwaters or cottages in our area.
Very pleasant lunch on the island at a nice 73 degrees there. The flag freshened with a gental wind shift to the west/north west at about 2:30 when we headed back. No ice in sight then. Too bad some had to work today.

TimmyG · 04-23-2008, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Formula260SS

Am I the only one not getting anything done today ?

Nope...I think a lot of us are getting plenty of nothing accomplished.

TG

Resident 2B · 04-23-2008, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steveo

Depending on when Emersons flys I would say Ice Out could be today. Right now ports that are clear are: Weirs Beach, Alton and Wolfboro (one small flow about to self destruct). I am not sure of Meredith and Center Harbor. If Emersons flys this afternoon I bet it will be declared; otherwise it will definately be tomorrow.

Steveo,

I think you are right on!

Let the boating season begin!!

R2B

camp guy · 04-23-2008, 05:59 PM

I draw your attentrion to a remark made by "Slickcraft" about picking up some debris while out on the Lake.

This is a VERY dangerous time of year to be boating - so much debris washed into the Lake, floating at just water level, posing a menace to boats.

I never did any real boatong until after a couple of big winds. There is nothing like a full day of NW wind to purge the Lake of most of the casual debris.

Be careful at this time of year, but, ENJOY!!.

04-22-2008, 10:22 AM	#1
flyguy Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Laconia NH Posts: 383 Thanks: 9 Thanked 101 Times in 20 Posts	Well, maybe May's not looking that good... Have to admit, I was counting on those 50+ degree days in the forecast to slow down the melt. Since that didn't happen, I did the next best thing- I PUT MY SNOWBLOWER AWAY- That should bring just enough really cold, snowy weather to delay IceOut a few days!!! Don't forget, it ain't over 'til the Mount can make it to ALL it's ports. I hope to go take another look in a day or so. (Maybe I'll fly with Dave Emerson - is that considered cheating, IG? ) (That's me trying be wildly optimistic while saving my change for that lobster roll!!) __________________ Bill Hemmel LakesRegionAerials.com "We have a slightly different point of view"

04-22-2008, 12:06 PM	#2
BlackCatIslander Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 201 Thanks: 52 Thanked 17 Times in 11 Posts	Look at the Lake Temperature! At 40 degrees, we have caught up with last year quickly. It looks that ice out should be official by the week end at the very latest. Then we can get the dock in and pick up the boat!

04-22-2008, 12:57 PM	#3
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Everything is in place This morning, once again, there was a 100-foot-thick layer of fog hanging over the ice. During the winter, fog is a good sign of a rapidly diminishing snow pack, and it's not much different with lake ice instead of snow. What's key is that the temp was above freezing (35) this morning. With 100% humidity (fog) there was no possibility for evaporation in open parts of the lake to cool the surface below freezing. Therefore the water temp had a much higher starting point once the sun came up. Iceout seems set to occur as soon as "the last straw" falls. The water temp here is playing with the 40-degree mark at the surface and has remained 39 underneath. The temp around the area is now pretty uniform at 71 degrees while we're 52 on the island. Once again the SE wind has kicked up, driven by this temperature difference between land and lake. While I don't see strong wind in the forecast, I still see the mainland hitting 80 tomorrow and I see shifting winds. For the past few days we've been locked into this lake breeze which has blown all the ice up from SE to NW where it's been locked against the islands and shorelines. It needs stirring, and I think we have a shot at getting a little stirring tomorrow and Thursday. Winds will shift into the SW tomorrow as a cold front approaches (winds ahead of a cold front tend to blow along it.) Tomorrow night the front will pass, causing winds to shift into the NW. Any ice that remains after tomorrow's heat will likely endure the cold front's rain showers and then get blown back down to the Barndoor end of the lake when the front passes.

04-22-2008, 03:01 PM	#6
Blue Thunder Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Eastern MA & Frye Island/Sebago Lake, Maine Posts: 952 Thanks: 255 Thanked 351 Times in 158 Posts	IG, you've got a PM..... BT __________________ " Live for today because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come"

04-22-2008, 10:44 PM	#7
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	West wind for a change! This evening we have seen a change in the weather. The southeast lake breeze of the past several days has now shifted into the west. This will mean much warmer weather for tomorrow since it is a breeze from off the continent instead of the ocean. For most of NH south and east of the Appalachian Mountains, it also means warmer by pressure. Air heats up due to increased pressure as it loses elevation, and we'll be getting some of that tomorrow, too. Since most locations around here were in the upper 70s today (including Laconia), I am guessing mid-80s will be pretty common for tomorrow. This combined with two different wind directions expected (SW shifting to NW) should stir the ice around, keep it moving instead of crammed up against one side of the lake, and may well result in iceout tomorrow. Even at this late hour the surface water temp at Black Cat WeatherCam is holding at 39 degrees, and the dewpoint isn't much lower than the temperature so there's not a whole lot of evaporation cooling that can take place on the lake tonight. Should serve as a springboard to push the water temp above 40 tomorrow with summer weather and even a chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. A few places may have them but not everyone.

04-22-2008, 01:47 PM	#4
wifi Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Lakes Region Posts: 1,321 Thanks: 282 Thanked 287 Times in 169 Posts	Its certainly looking and feeling dry, in the areas there is no snow or run off, atleast to me Are we heading into a dryer than normal season, (with forest fire danger) or are we going to be growing those ticks, mosquitoes and black flies again ?

04-23-2008, 08:14 AM	#8
Grady223 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: New Hope, PA & Barndoor Island Posts: 465 Thanks: 93 Thanked 24 Times in 18 Posts	Water temperature has hit 40 degrees, any day now - with 16 mph northwest winds expected tomorrow - we are on the brink. Opening the island house next weekend is a certainty - I was doubtful a week ago! Last edited by Grady223; 04-23-2008 at 08:15 AM. Reason: Make it more clear

04-23-2008, 08:48 AM	#9
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,354 Thanks: 18 Thanked 564 Times in 180 Posts	A sight to see It is hard to focus on work this morning with the incredible changes every few minutes on the ice melt. The webcams that still show a little ice change with every picture... less and less ice.. such fun to watch! Welcome to spring! IG __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

04-23-2008, 12:17 PM	#10
Steveo Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 524 Thanks: 47 Thanked 123 Times in 63 Posts	Ice out very, very near Depending on when Emersons flys I would say Ice Out could be today. Right now ports that are clear are: Weirs Beach, Alton and Wolfboro (one small flow about to self destruct). I am not sure of Meredith and Center Harbor. If Emersons flys this afternoon I bet it will be declared; otherwise it will definately be tomorrow.

04-23-2008, 12:30 PM	#11
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Shifting winds during the night and morning have resulted in the various icebergs becoming separated finally. They are now drifting as individuals in the lake. Several of them are still blocking the path of the MOUNT to the southeast of Black Cat Island. However, the SW wind ahead of the approaching cold front hasn't gotten strong enough to fight the SE lake breeze entirely. This has resulted in alternating SE-SW winds which are keeping the lake stirring and the icebergs moving in circles. The motion combined with the heat of the day (still a few hours away) is melting them rapidly. The water temp has risen to 43 today at the surface and remains 39 underneath. The temperature at the WeatherCam rises a few degrees every time the wind comes from the SW and falls when it kicks back to the SE. It's been a very topsy-turvy day for temps here, with a high of 66 so far. In Laconia and Plymouth the noontime temp is up to 75, and Rochester has already hit 80. The highest can be expected about 3 p.m. Tonight, winds will shift into the NW behind the cold front. It is a weak front, so we're not expecting a huge temp drop tomorrow. NWS has updated tomorrow and Friday temps to 70.

04-23-2008, 12:49 PM	#12
Bear Islander Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Bear Island Posts: 1,764 Thanks: 32 Thanked 441 Times in 207 Posts	Ice - Pine to Black Cat The last of the ice can be seen on some of the IceOut Cams. http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm I like the shifting winds part because I am trying to make a time lapse ice out video. Shifting winds makes the ice dance.

04-23-2008, 01:03 PM	#13
TimmyG Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Henniker Posts: 42 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Launch Time T-64 hours Wow, this weather sure has been a joy. I was hesitant but I finally put away the snow blower. I don't think I jinxed anything as I had my fingers crossed when I did. I am currently in Boston where my car temp showed 86 degrees when I went for lunch. If the rain holds off for Saturday morning I am launching at Fay's. I have been watching the webcams constantly. Haven't had this much fun since I worked at a mushroom farm! TG

04-23-2008, 02:26 PM	#14
Formula260SS Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: NH Posts: 384 Thanks: 11 Thanked 76 Times in 51 Posts	Am I the only one not getting anything done today ?

04-23-2008, 02:54 PM	#15
BlackCatIslander Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 201 Thanks: 52 Thanked 17 Times in 11 Posts	Is it safe to put a dock in? I am wondering whether it will safe to put the dock in yet. From the live cams, one gets the impression that the ice is dissappearing rapidly. However, windblown ice can cause extensive damage to docks. Any opinions?

04-23-2008, 03:15 PM	#18
Island Girl Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Central MA Posts: 2,354 Thanks: 18 Thanked 564 Times in 180 Posts	Work?? On ice out day... are you kidding.. how can we work!!!!! You are not alone, Formula260ss. __________________ Island Girl ....... Make Lemonade

04-23-2008, 03:39 PM	#20
2 Islands Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Mink Island, Elbow Cay and Center Harbor Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Dock In! We went out to Mink Island late yesterday afternoon from Shep Brown's. We are the boat you saw Fatlazyless!. We dropped the dock, put on the planks and had dinner on the dock. It was absolutely beautiful. It is finally Island Time.

04-23-2008, 03:54 PM	#21
Steveo Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 524 Thanks: 47 Thanked 123 Times in 63 Posts	I'm not alone in my addiction Boy am I glad I'm not the only nut case watching ice melt. Totally unproductive day but a hell of a lot of fun.

04-23-2008, 04:03 PM	#22
Slickcraft Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Welch Island and The Taylor Community Posts: 3,322 Thanks: 1,237 Thanked 2,111 Times in 963 Posts	Flag up, dock down We made a slow but pleasant trip over to Welch Island at 11:00 am today in the wife's Whaler picking-up several blocks of wood on the way. There were a few small patches of ice at the time. We got the seasonal dock down, no damage to the main dock/breakwater. We did not see damage to any breakwaters or cottages in our area. Very pleasant lunch on the island at a nice 73 degrees there. The flag freshened with a gental wind shift to the west/north west at about 2:30 when we headed back. No ice in sight then. Too bad some had to work today.

04-23-2008, 05:59 PM	#25
camp guy Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: formerly Winter Harbor, still Wolfeboro Posts: 1,193 Thanks: 303 Thanked 529 Times in 296 Posts	Ice Out and Safe Boating I draw your attentrion to a remark made by "Slickcraft" about picking up some debris while out on the Lake. This is a VERY dangerous time of year to be boating - so much debris washed into the Lake, floating at just water level, posing a menace to boats. I never did any real boatong until after a couple of big winds. There is nothing like a full day of NW wind to purge the Lake of most of the casual debris. Be careful at this time of year, but, ENJOY!!.