Ice-Out 2008

[Pepper]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

...
Tomorrow I'm a lot more confident that a couple of places around here will hit 80. The rest of us will all be in the 70s.

You've been dead-on for weeks, so I'm banking on your forecast for tomorrow. I started working out in the gardens today, and am delighted to find a LOT of green poking up. Even my Clematis have buds! Tomorrow I think I might have to plant some pansies, so I can add a bit of early color to the green.

[Pepper]

Wow, it's amazing how fast the water temperature drops when the sun goes down! When I posted around 7:20 this evening, the temperature at 2 feet below the surface was 39.9 according to the Black Cat Weather page. As of this moment, only three hours and 20 minutes later it is already at 38.1. However, a few moments ago it was reading 37.6, which means there is current moving colder water around, I would imagine. But nonetheless, the water cools off FAST at night. No wonder there's so much glazing-over of open water each morning.

Thankfully we'll be in the 70's again tomorrow, with lots of beautiful sunshine, and will hopefully see a lot more of what we saw happen today.

[Pepper]

OK, am I losing my mind? At 11:16 there was a post here from Resident2B. I clicked out to get a nugget of information for my reply to him, and when I clicked back in it was gone. Am I going bonkers?

Anyway, in case it reappears ...

I agree the ice must certainly be out where his temperature readings are being taken, as the entire area well beyond the shoals was clear as of mid-afternoon today.

Thanks for the explanation, too!

[Resident 2B]

Pepper,

The sun is high in the sky now, as high as it is in mid-to-late August. It has quite the impact on water temp near the surface. I am assuming that the ice is gone where CLA is monitoring the water temp.

In addition, it takes a lot of BTU's to change the state of ice to water. It is called the 'heat of transformation'. That quickly takes the heat out of the water when the sun goes down. It is a lot like ice cubes in a glass of water. The good news is the ice continues to melt until the water gets to 32 degrees.

I have April 29th in the ice-out contest this year. I am concerned that my pick will be a few days too early this year. We could still have ice in May this year, but May is only two weeks away.

Great to see you back posting and good luck to you, Waldo and your partners with your new business venture!

R2B

[Pepper]

See, now there's the post I read before, only with a later timestamp. Surely I'm either clairvoyant, or I've lost my mind, or something very squirrely just happened.

Anyway, at least it's there again, even if it shows up behind my reply to it. very confusing!

And thanks for the well-wishes. Sorry we won't be in walking distance for you anymore.

[Resident 2B]

Pepper,

Sorry to be driving you nuts.

I just added a signature for the first time and I realized I mis-spelled a word in the signature. The only way I could fix it was to copy the message, delete it, fix the signature, then repost after the 5 minute time-out.

Very sorry that I messed things up here.

I will remain a loyal customer, but now it has to be by car.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Pepper, what R2B said is right-on. Surface temp is highly sensitive to the heat of the day, and I am monitoring where the ice is out. The 10-foot-deep probe is near the edge of the ice pack, and down. But even that has been warming up... just more slowly.

The surface water has been highly sensitive also to the very dry conditions lately. Water evaps more quickly from the lake surface which cools it, and after dark on a clear calm night, that means the surface water temp will drop rapidly (this is how it usually freezes in the first place.) When we start getting humid nights, you may notice the surface water stays the same or doesn't drop much overnight. Last summer when the humidity was thickest of the year, we had a night where the surface temp even rose a little overnight. That night the dewpoint was in the mid-70s and my air conditioner was practically wheezing and choking on it.

You also probably guessed right in saying there's a current. In the time lapse today (several times) I saw chunks of ice following a certain pattern through the open water, rather than going in a straight line with the wind, which told me a current has probably developed in the open water. If true, it's another sign that the lake is "trying to shed the ice."

Nature is so fun to watch.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by Merrymeeting

Ice-out will be happening anytime now. Thanks to the concerted efforts of the Pine Island Residents Association, the Pine Island Ice Monster has been unleashed.

The Pine Island Ice Monster only makes an appearance during those years where ice-out threatens to extend well into the month of May.

As you can see, it has started eating away at the ice at the spot where it was released.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...=12675&cat=523

Oh the humanity!!

[NHDOLFAN]

I went and had a cup of coffee at the town docks in Wolfeboro. There are several large openings in the bay. I imagine that the openings will continue to grow over the next few days. I say most of the bay will open up by Monday of next week. I'm picking up my new boat next week and really hope that the ice is gone by April 26th, which was my guess. Island Girl, have fun watching the ice melt. I am envious!

[Pepper]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

...

Nature is so fun to watch.

I wholeheartedly concur.

R2B - thank heavens there was a reasonable explanation! I thought for sure there was a demon in my laptop.

[gtxrider]

I looked at the Pine Island Ice Monster and the temp. was 80 degrees. Summer temperatures so lets take a dip! Last one in is rotten egg!

[TimmyG]

This weather is unbelievable. I, recently a transplant from CT, was afraid this winter would never end.
My contact at Fay's told me yesterday that the ice is out of the yard, but still ice in the channel, as can be seen in the Varney point cam. I am heading up on saturday to clean out the new boat and maybe get her tied off to my slip. Won't be long now!
TG

[Steveo]

Check out the Alton cam. Ice out to Sandy Point with big ice flow coming toward the bandstand. Won't be long for at least for Alton Bay.

[flyguy]

Ice out will occur on May 2 this year. You can take it to the bank!

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by chipj29

BTW, my ice out guess is very early May.

Originally Posted by flyguy

Ice out will occur on May 2 this year. You can take it to the bank!

Great minds think alike! I posted that earlier in this thread on April 3. Dayum, I am good! :lol:

[Slickcraft]

Originally Posted by Steveo

Check out the Alton cam. Ice out to Sandy Point with big ice flow coming toward the bandstand. Won't be long for at least for Alton Bay.

For a while some fishermen were caught by the ice flow between Sandy Point and the bandstand. At about 2:30 I saw a snowmobile going south between Rattlesnake and the mouth of the bay. Maybe he was wearing a wet suit and a PFD. Made me curious as to how he got on and off the ice, all the shore front that I can see has open water.

[SIKSUKR]

Lots more open water on the snake eyes cam.Great shot on the Pine Island cam.The thermometer shows 88 degrees with the lake still full of ice.

[FLAG!]

I've not been there since February. This weekend was suppsoed to be a big family spring clean up weekend. Unfortunately, we've been told it's pointless due to snow cover. One of the gang is still heading up jsut to check on the place and he called to ask if I think he should bring his ice fishing gear. I said to be very cautious and use his head, but can anyone tellme if ANYONE is still venturing onto the ice and if so how much ice they are finding and is it solid ice or porous?

Thanks.

[Triton Dave]

I once watched about 18 inches of pretty solid ice go out in 24 on Lake Ossipee about 4 Springs ago. Of course the weather was 80F and sunny and calm, but it can go very fast when it wants to. We could use a warm, windy rainstorm, but either way, I'd be surprised if it wasn't gone by April 24 or 25. And No, I would not ice fish now. Tell him to bring his rod and reel and fish for salmon or bass in the sections that have open water.

[flyguy]

This morning I flew around looking for open water. Sorry to say how disappointed I was. Nothing on the north or northwest sides of the lake is open.

Here's a shot that includes all of Wolfeboro Bay. It looks encouraging! If you'd like to share my view of the lake this AM (from Meredith to Wolfeboro). go here.

[nj2nh]

Yeah, but I can't see any ice on the Alton Bay webcam anymore - just beautiful smooth water, completely ice-free. Every so often a little boat putts on by.

It's a beautiful thing.

nj2nh

[DBA]

I can't thank you enough for spending your time and resources giving us your spectacular aerial views of our precious world. Yes, I will be ordering from you. Thank you so much!
DBA

[Hermit Cover]

Are you being flown over to Rattlesnake by the Waldo Pepper's Airline flagship....WP ONE..??? I understand the little bugger is lookin for some charters during the "down time"...

Happy Spring!!! Hurry Ice Out!!

[Island Girl]

Originally Posted by flyguy

This morning I flew around looking for open water. Sorry to say how disappointed I was. Nothing on the north or northwest sides of the lake is open.

Here's a shot of Wolfeboro that looked encouraging! If you'd like to share my view of the lake this AM. go here.

Thanks Flyguy for your incredible picures of the lake today. It is always great to get the bird's eye view. Now for the on the ground view. The ice is gray, thin and porous. It is as thin as a couple of inches in some places and the thickest I saw was about 8 inches. Go here to see my pictures today of the ice around Rattlesnake Island. I challenge you to an ice-out duel, Flyguy.. I say April 26th.. Loser buys the Lobster Roll at the new WP when it opens!!

Enjoy
IG

http://rattlesnakecam.com/iceout-08/iceout-08.htm

[flyguy]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

I challenge you to an ice-out duel, Flyguy.. I say April 26th.. Loser buys the Lobster Roll at the new WP when it opens!!

Enjoy
IG

http://rattlesnakecam.com/iceout-08/iceout-08.htm

Aha! You see the trees, I see the forest. We're probably both wrong, but you're on. May 2nd will be the day!

Thanks for the great close-up shots on your web site. Were they taken from this?

[Island Girl]

Here is my friends' chariot.

[hazelnut]

Weirs Cam activity..... Early fisherman?

[Pepper]

As of about 12:45, a boat arrived at Pine Island Guy's camp. The operator has docked, and removed the the "Danger - Thin Ice" sign. Obviously there's clear transit from somewhere on the mainland, to Pine Island - either that or a miracle just happened.

Today is one of those days when you can literally watch the ice melting, and it's doing so very fast.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Yesterday the ice absorbed a lot of heat from the air. This was evident in the fact that Concord, Rochester and Lebanon all got into the 80s while Laconia was 75 and Black Cat Island was 70. That only occurred for a short time when the wind dropped off to calm. As soon as the lake breeze went from zero to 2 mph, the temp dropped off quickly to 60.

Most people would say "the ice was cooling the air" which in reality means "The ice has absorbed heat from the air, leaving the air with less heat." In physics there's no such thing as "cold," only "heat." When conditions cause our bodies to lose more heat than we're making, we call it cold.

But anyway... there was a 20-degree difference between the lake and the surrounding area yesterday. That shows the ice absorbed a LOT of heat yesterday. I could even see the "heat ripples" coming off the ice on the horizon.

The same thing is happening right now. Laconia is 73, while the WeatherCam is 58. The ice is eating heat like a mafia target who's drinking cyanide.

[Pine Island Guy]

we had to push through a little ice, but managed to squeak around and through the cracks to the island!!

we're here

PIG

[Island Girl]

The lake is on the move. The channel close to shore on the broadside of Rattlesnake Island is widening and there is a nice breeze helping things alone. If you look at DRH's pictures you can see the same is happening there...

It's starting to go!!!! I could win that Lobster Roll yet.

I am working at getting Snake Eyes back up...

IG

[Island Girl]

Go to http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/snakeeyesall.htm to see the last ten photos from Snake Eyes.. a new pic every five minutes now..Also check out all the webcams.at http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm.
They all show lots of movement.

The lake is on the move... it's happening.. woo hoo!!!!

Island Girl

[Orion]

Pine Island Guy, I hope you're not leaving the boat tied up like that overnight! The ice moving around there is a powerful force.

Congratulations on reaching your camp! I'm jealous.

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by flyguy

Thanks for the great close-up shots on your web site. Were they taken from this?

Damn I miss that boat this year...

[Island Girl]

Last night we ventured over to the other side of Rattlesnake Island... there is open water all across Sleeper's facing Rattlesnake. It was completely closed yesterday morning!

[CanisLupusArctos]

In the last 3 hours of daylight yesterday, a lead opened up between Black Cat Shoals and Hull Island. The resulting berg began drifting toward the shore of Black Cat Island on the southeasterly wind of the day. Watch this lead continue to open today. The ice at the end of yesterday was noticeably gray compared to the white color it had at the beginning of the day.

For the second day in a row, most locations away from the lake got warm, including Laconia at 73, Concord at 75, Fryeburg/North Conway at 71, and Lebanon at 81. Black Cat WeatherCam reached 65 for a few minutes before the lake breeze knocked it back to around 50. This 20+ degree temperature difference between the lake and the surrounding area represents a lot of heat absorbed by the ice once again.

[Merrymeeting]

Ah, the restorative powers of the lake work again!

We opened up our house this weekend and spent our first night at the lake in 08. It was an amazing 24+ hours to be at the lake.

I arrived mid-day Friday to beautiful, warm sunshine and the sounds of melting snow and ice everywhere. I was amazed to see how much snow is still left in the mountains and ridges around the lakes. I went hiking on the ridge in this photo.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...697&ppuser=123

In some spots I was sinking in to snow up to mid-calf. But it is very soft wet snow that's going fast.

Later that evening while standing on the shoreline, the sound of water rushing down the hillsides into the lake dominated all other sounds. The good news is that the lakes are still relatively low so there is plenty of remaining capacity to take up the melting snow.

Friday night, the open areas of water on the lake re-froze, despite the fact that the temp reading at the house showed a low of 40 that night. As our resident weather experts often tell us, I'm sure that radiational cooling had a lot to do with this. By morning we were still pretty locked in. These photos taken at 7:15 AM

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...702&ppuser=123
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...701&ppuser=123

We went to breakfast in Wolfeboro. As you can see in these photos, things warmed up quickly. As others have mentioned, you could literally watch the ice melt. I've also included a photo of the work to improve accessability at Dockside.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...698&ppuser=123
http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...700&ppuser=123

Back at our place at noon, my son decided he would contribute to the advancement of ice out.

http://www.winnipesaukee.com/photopo...699&ppuser=123

It must have worked. By 2 PM, most of the ice near us was gone, and the remaining lake ice had gone very dark. A slight breeze picked up late in the afternoon and the remaining ice packs were moving around noticably. Most were fairly thin, some areas were still 6-8" thick. But these were typically shaded patches close to the shore. We were able to put our dock in!

I expect that most of the ice will be gone from Merrymeeting by Monday or Tuesday.

[Bear Island South]

[QUOTE=Pine Island Guy;68063]we had to push through a little ice, but managed to squeak around and through the cracks to the island!!

we're here

Did you launch from Sheps or the Y landing, we are hoping to get to our place next weekend

[Pepper]

Bear Island South - by next weekend you will be able to launch from wherever you want, because THE ICE WILL BE OUT!

[Bear Island South]

[QUOTE=Pepper;68086]Bear Island South - by next weekend you will be able to launch from wherever you want, because THE ICE WILL BE OUT! :

I agree, I'm getting the boat ready today

[CanisLupusArctos]

In the last couple of hours at Black Cat we have seen the ice start to make its annual move. Winds are from the southeast and increasing. Heat ripples continue above the surface of the ice in the distance, indicating that it is still absorbing heat from the surrounding area (60s in most locations) while the island is much cooler.

The ice is breaking up rapidly and bergs moving SE to NW.

I just drove along Rts. 11 - 3 - 25 from Rochester to Center Harbor along the lake shore and found at every view the ice was rotten, breaking up, and lots of evidence of movement as far as I could see.

Prior to yesterday I wouldn't have believed it would go out this week but now I think iceout by Friday is likely. It has absorbed a LOT of heat in the last 3 days and now it appears likely that we'll be having temps in the 70s most of this week, possibly low 80s again in a few places on Wednesday. This fair weather pattern is also bringing a sundown wind starting early in the day (1-2 p.m. each day) which has been an unpredicted weakening force on the ice the last 3 days. I expect this pattern to continue for most of the week.

The sundown wind is being locally enhanced by the temperature differences between the ice-cooled air over the lake and the warmth of the surrounding area which has been and will continue to be abnormally warm for this time of year. Currently the winds at Concord, Laconia, and Plymouth are sustained 8-10 mph with gusts to 16 or so, while Black Cat WeatherCam is sustained at 16 gusting to 24.

Further speeding this year's iceout has been abnormally dry air (dewpoints in the 20s) which have coupled with the localized wind to literally dry up (scientific term - 'sublimate') the surface of the ice.

Those who have docks that have any exposure to east or SE, watch out... the ice is moving.

[nj2nh]

I have been checking the area webcams with some frequency in the last couple of days. I checked on the Winnipesaukee Cam on Alton Bay near Little Mark Island and it looked almost completely full of ice although the cam in the Bay showed no ice.

Here is the link to the cam: http://www.winnipesaukeecam.com/

Well, just now (6:30pm) I checked again. I was stunned to see NO ICE anywhere. Could the bay be completely ice free?

nj2nh

[Island Girl]

I had a lovely flight over the lake today.. although the pictures you will see over the next couple of hours show ice... that is is mostly ice crystals with water between... since then (around 1pm this afternoon, April 20,) a lot has changed and there are many more open areas than seen in this picture.

This shot is of the backside of Rattlesnake Island looking towards Diamond Island.

I just may win that Lobster Roll from flyguy!!!!

[Pepper]

IG - awesome shots from today! I have to agree that the ice is extremely weak at this point, and judging by all the movement today it won't take long for all of it to go!

There was A LOT of air traffic this afternoon - must be a few other folks were as anxious as you to have a look for themselves. It was truly a fabulous day for flying, so maybe some just had a good dose of spring fever.

I was on the ground, in reasonable proximity to the end of the runway, and was amazed at how many planes were up! Glad that one of them was you, and you had your camera with!

[Island Girl]

Flying around the lake was such an incredible treat... just the best! Here is Governor's Island this afternoon... more pictures in Photopost.

IG

[DRH]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Flying around the lake was such an incredible treat... just the best! Here is Governor's Island this afternoon... more pictures in Photopost.
IG

I'll bet you had a great time flying over the lake today watching the ice go out! Hope to see more of your photos soon!

[Webbsatwinni]

Great pictures IG, now we can all live vicariously through you and watch the ice out from the sky.

Thank You!

[codeman671]

The way some of the cameras look now, especially Varney Point, I would not be surprised if I could make it to Mark now!

Anyone been out poking around? Too bad I told them I did not need the boat until Friday.

[Pepper]

At around 10:30 this morning the ice began to move once again. Images at the Black Cat Weather Cam, the Weirs Cam, the Abakee Cam and Proctor's cam show the most motion so far. Proctor's is showing the flow "out" of the ice which is passing the Weirs Cam and heading down through the channel. Over the past 30 minutes or so the motion has really stepped up it's pace.

The Bear Cams all seem to have "hiccuped" this morning, and are stuck. It will be interesting to see the changes once they begin broadcasting new images.

I did see a gigantic heart-shaped floe go sailing past the Varney Point Cam, then about a half hour later there was a small boat in the view. Definately a lot of clear water there!

DRH's photo this morning shows a distinct shrink too!

Fairhaven Cam shows a significant amount of ice flowing in and breaking up as well.

No boutadoutit - it's a mass-suicide of ice going on.

[Formula260SS]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

The lake is on the move. The channel close to shore on the broadside of Rattlesnake Island is widening and there is a nice breeze helping things alone. If you look at DRH's pictures you can see the same is happening there...

It's starting to go!!!! I could win that Lobster Roll yet.

I am working at getting Snake Eyes back up...

IG

I'd say your "Lobsta" roll is in the bag IG, I'll see you all on the lake this weekend !!

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Pepper

At around 10:30 this morning the ice began to move once again. Images at the Black Cat Weather Cam, the Weirs Cam, the Abakee Cam and Proctor's cam show the most motion so far.

At the Black Cat WeatherCam if you click on 'Previous Images' and then start the 3-hour time lapse you'll see the motion of the last 3 hours. Pics are taken every 2 minutes.) Yesterday's was cool, once it started moving around 1:30 p.m. Today we're expecting more of the same as the southeast wind (coming right up the length of the lake) has gotten active much earlier in the day than it did the last few days. Now sustained at 10 gusting 14. Heat ripples starting to appear above the ice again. The island is already 10 degrees cooler than Laconia which means the ice is already actively eating heat and melting.

[Grant]

Today's Black Cat time lapse loop also shows some serious darkening of the remaining slush. Soon it will "darken" right into the drink.

CLA: Love those time lapses...one of my favorite things to view from afar in any season. Thanks.

[TimmyG]

Being a first timer to this Ice-Out event, and given the current condition of the lake with all this glorious warmth, what is the prognosis for the official declaration?

I was at Fay's this weekend and they are furiously getting boats in the water. There was a little thin ice in Smith's cove, but all of the docks were very clear. I just scheduled my new boat launch to happen this Saturday. I am so excited.

TG

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

Your 3 hour video is great, as is the rest of your weather site. It is full of very useful information that adds real value to this forum and to all with a lakes region weather interest.

The ability to see conditions around the lake on days like this really help in assessing how quickly the ice is melting. Today the ice is really cooling the air in places where the wind is off the lake. As you pointed out, what is really happening is that the ice is sucking in heat from the air and melting very quickly. I am now confident in an April ice-out date. I was thinking May a few days ago.

Thanks for providing this service to all of us!

R2B

[Island Girl]

Just a note to new boaters. Just because Ice-Out gets declared, it does not mean that the lake is free from ice. There are often a few icebergs.. some just under the surface. Hitting one would not be fun. Additionally, there is typically lots of debris on the lake such as sticks. logs, chunks of docks and wood that are not easily seen. It is not a good idea to go speeding around at first. Please pick up any debris you encounter if it is safe to do so.. you may save someone else's boat.

The water is very cold and the breeze off the water is chilly. The air temperature may be warm, but it will still be cool in the boats on plane... I always have jackets, hats and gloves in the boat this time of year.

It will be very soon
Be careful out there
IG

[rrr]

I'm guessing that there may be more debris than usual this year. We've noticed a couple of spots where it looked like bob houses must have become embedded in the ice and when it came time to remove them - a portion got left behind!

have fun and be careful

[Grady223]

Originally Posted by TimmyG

Being a first timer to this Ice-Out event, and given the current condition of the lake with all this glorious warmth, what is the prognosis for the official declaration?

I was at Fay's this weekend and they are furiously getting boats in the water. There was a little thin ice in Smith's cove, but all of the docks were very clear. I just scheduled my new boat launch to happen this Saturday. I am so excited.

TG

I think Saturday should be OK, but heed Island Girl's warnings - much debris in the lake - takes a couple of good windy days and considerate boaters to clean it up.

Water temp is 38, 40 is the key - usually shortly after the water gets to 40 ice is out. With mid to high 60s toward the middle of the week and a good northwest wind on Thursday - me thinks Friday is the day.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

CLA,

Your 3 hour video is great, as is the rest of your weather site. It is full of very useful information that adds real value to this forum and to all with a lakes region weather interest.

The ability to see conditions around the lake on days like this really help in assessing how quickly the ice is melting. Today the ice is really cooling the air in places where the wind is off the lake. As you pointed out, what is really happening is that the ice is sucking in heat from the air and melting very quickly. I am now confident in an April ice-out date. I was thinking May a few days ago.

Thanks for providing this service to all of us!

R2B

Your'e welcome. The site is a part of a dream fulfilled, one that I had since before the technology was there to support it (as in, "Wouldn't it be cool if...") So thank you and all for your interest in it - makes it worthwhile. It's also great forecasting weather alongside you and Rose, and others when they chime in - makes me see things I overlook or never knew.

Well... about iceout... it was fun to ride from Moultonborough to Center Harbor this morning with the windows down. It was about 70 in Moultonborough and then when I got to about the savings bank in Center Harbor, a cold blast of air came in the window. This was from the southeast wind coming ashore there, with the heat sucked out of it by the ice.

I've noticed as the ice has taken a much grayer tone in the last 3 hours (Thank you Grant for pointing that out) the air has also been warmer today. Not as much heat has been sucked out of the air in the last 3 hours. We started the day with a 15-degree temp difference between here and the mainland, and now we're down to about a 10-degree difference. In response, the "lake breeze" has also slowed down. This tells me the ice may be nearing its capacity for heat absorption and is therefore ready to darken right into the lake as Grant said.

Here is my prediction for iceout: Wednesday. My reasoning is that today the ice is near its capacity for heat absorption. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today, which should separate and slushify the ice. That will make it especially vulnerable to Wednesday's summery forecast. I'm going for 79-83 around the lakes region with a few places like Concord or Plymouth perhaps touching 85. Islands and immediate shorelines should be around 75. This heat will probably melt enough of the ice to make it official. If not Wednesday, then definitely Thursday or Friday.

IG has a great point however: New boaters beware! "Right after iceout" is not a good time to go boating unless you really know what you're doing. There's usually debris in the lake, a few leftover icebergs hiding, and the biggest thing is the cold water. In any boat ride the operator(s) have to be ready for "person overboard." In this cold water, anyone who falls overboard is probably in a 911 situation unless you can get them back aboard within seconds. Unlike summertime water, this cold water makes it very, very difficult for a person overboard to cooperate or help with their own rescue, so the burden falls primarily on others. Also, anyone who has been overboard or who takes a good splash from over the rail is going to get hypothermia quickly unless they have a way to dry off and warm up right away.

[MAXUM]

Every year I'm usually one of the first out there on the lake fishing as the ice is either gone or just about to disappear and I can for sure tell you from experience to heed these warnings of debris in the water. Whether it be pieces of wood, pieces of trees (yes no kidding) and of course the occasional ice berg.

The other very important thing too is that you CANNOT under any circumstances trust that the markers are either in their proper position or even in place. Winter time activities tend to take a toll on the markers and many get broken during the winter. Those that are not broken can be pulled around by the shifting ice during the spring melt and may be no where near where they are supposed to be. It takes the MP some time to get them replaced or put back where they belong. So take a navigation map with you and best go places where you know for sure where the markers should be, not where they are or risk paying the price.

With any luck I'll be splashing my new boat this weekend!

[Formula260SS]

Talked to a guy who made it out to the back side of Rattlesnake today, from what he said the ice is ready to go, let's hope for some good weather this weekend. I will repeat what everyone knows, debris debris....go slow and stay in the boat.

[Pepper]

I just watched the final three hours of daylight stream on CLA's cam, and was astounded at the wild movement of some REALLY HUGE sheets!

It is also truly much darker then when I last looked around noontime.

Despite the prognostications of my dear friends at Emerson Aviation, I'm in total agreement with CLA - it's going to happen within the next several days. Between the weakening of the ice, and the coming heat, added to the potential for some good breeze, there's no way I can imagine it could withstand all that.

On your mark: Get set: Go fish some debris out of the water!

[chipj29]

Methinks my May 2nd ice out guess is in jeopardy. I was doing well until the warm weather of the past 6 or 7 days. Oh well...I am still in the game, hanging on by a thread.

[fatlazyless]

Looks like buoy 3 to Gov's Isl slush-away will probably happen today what with the sun and warm temps. Big changes overnight with lots of slush sheets moving about and watery openings in the field of slush.

Here's something different. Saw the big bad, bald eagle being chased away through the air by a squaking crow that was about half the eagle's size. That crow was not pleased about something?

Probably ice-out and the impending motorboats will tell the eagle its time to head back north.

[flyguy]

Have to admit, I was counting on those 50+ degree days in the forecast to slow down the melt. Since that didn't happen, I did the next best thing- I PUT MY SNOWBLOWER AWAY- That should bring just enough really cold, snowy weather to delay IceOut a few days!!!

Don't forget, it ain't over 'til the Mount can make it to ALL it's ports. I hope to go take another look in a day or so. (Maybe I'll fly with Dave Emerson - is that considered cheating, IG? )

(That's me trying be wildly optimistic while saving my change for that lobster roll!!)

[BlackCatIslander]

At 40 degrees, we have caught up with last year quickly. It looks that ice out should be official by the week end at the very latest. Then we can get the dock in and pick up the boat!

[CanisLupusArctos]

This morning, once again, there was a 100-foot-thick layer of fog hanging over the ice. During the winter, fog is a good sign of a rapidly diminishing snow pack, and it's not much different with lake ice instead of snow. What's key is that the temp was above freezing (35) this morning. With 100% humidity (fog) there was no possibility for evaporation in open parts of the lake to cool the surface below freezing. Therefore the water temp had a much higher starting point once the sun came up.

Iceout seems set to occur as soon as "the last straw" falls. The water temp here is playing with the 40-degree mark at the surface and has remained 39 underneath. The temp around the area is now pretty uniform at 71 degrees while we're 52 on the island. Once again the SE wind has kicked up, driven by this temperature difference between land and lake.

While I don't see strong wind in the forecast, I still see the mainland hitting 80 tomorrow and I see shifting winds.

For the past few days we've been locked into this lake breeze which has blown all the ice up from SE to NW where it's been locked against the islands and shorelines. It needs stirring, and I think we have a shot at getting a little stirring tomorrow and Thursday.

Winds will shift into the SW tomorrow as a cold front approaches (winds ahead of a cold front tend to blow along it.) Tomorrow night the front will pass, causing winds to shift into the NW. Any ice that remains after tomorrow's heat will likely endure the cold front's rain showers and then get blown back down to the Barndoor end of the lake when the front passes.

[wifi]

Its certainly looking and feeling dry, in the areas there is no snow or run off, atleast to me Are we heading into a dryer than normal season, (with forest fire danger) or are we going to be growing those ticks, mosquitoes and black flies again ?

[TimmyG]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

Just a note to new boaters. Just because Ice-Out gets declared, it does not mean that the lake is free from ice. There are often a few icebergs..

Thanks everyone for the good info. I am going to lauch this Saturday from Fay's. I know that there is still some ice out there and debris. since it's a new boat the mechanic at Fay's will be with me to go through all the sytems and to do the sea test. No high speed traversing yet until I get used to the boat and the lake.

I can't wait to see everyone out there.

TG

[Island Girl]

Originally Posted by flyguy

Don't forget, it ain't over 'til the Mount can make it to ALL it's ports. I hope to go take another look in a day or so. (Maybe I'll fly with Dave Emerson - is that considered cheating, IG? )

(That's me trying be wildly optimistic while saving my change for that lobster roll!!)

Go on and fly with Dave... can I come?

[Blue Thunder]

IG, you've got a PM.....

BT

[fatlazyless]

I just seen the first boat, a smallish white center console w/ two on-board moving slowly around the south end of Bear Island. Most all of the floating slush from this morning has melted, and it's about 99.5% liquid water, out there, as seen from here.

Hope everyone's island roofs survived the heavy snow and ice of the winter.

[CanisLupusArctos]

This evening we have seen a change in the weather. The southeast lake breeze of the past several days has now shifted into the west. This will mean much warmer weather for tomorrow since it is a breeze from off the continent instead of the ocean. For most of NH south and east of the Appalachian Mountains, it also means warmer by pressure. Air heats up due to increased pressure as it loses elevation, and we'll be getting some of that tomorrow, too.

Since most locations around here were in the upper 70s today (including Laconia), I am guessing mid-80s will be pretty common for tomorrow. This combined with two different wind directions expected (SW shifting to NW) should stir the ice around, keep it moving instead of crammed up against one side of the lake, and may well result in iceout tomorrow.

Even at this late hour the surface water temp at Black Cat WeatherCam is holding at 39 degrees, and the dewpoint isn't much lower than the temperature so there's not a whole lot of evaporation cooling that can take place on the lake tonight. Should serve as a springboard to push the water temp above 40 tomorrow with summer weather and even a chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. A few places may have them but not everyone.

[Grady223]

Water temperature has hit 40 degrees, any day now - with 16 mph northwest winds expected tomorrow - we are on the brink. Opening the island house next weekend is a certainty - I was doubtful a week ago!

[Island Girl]

It is hard to focus on work this morning with the incredible changes every few minutes on the ice melt. The webcams that still show a little ice change with every picture... less and less ice.. such fun to watch!

Welcome to spring!
IG

[Steveo]

Depending on when Emersons flys I would say Ice Out could be today. Right now ports that are clear are: Weirs Beach, Alton and Wolfboro (one small flow about to self destruct). I am not sure of Meredith and Center Harbor. If Emersons flys this afternoon I bet it will be declared; otherwise it will definately be tomorrow.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Shifting winds during the night and morning have resulted in the various icebergs becoming separated finally. They are now drifting as individuals in the lake. Several of them are still blocking the path of the MOUNT to the southeast of Black Cat Island. However, the SW wind ahead of the approaching cold front hasn't gotten strong enough to fight the SE lake breeze entirely. This has resulted in alternating SE-SW winds which are keeping the lake stirring and the icebergs moving in circles. The motion combined with the heat of the day (still a few hours away) is melting them rapidly.

The water temp has risen to 43 today at the surface and remains 39 underneath.

The temperature at the WeatherCam rises a few degrees every time the wind comes from the SW and falls when it kicks back to the SE. It's been a very topsy-turvy day for temps here, with a high of 66 so far. In Laconia and Plymouth the noontime temp is up to 75, and Rochester has already hit 80. The highest can be expected about 3 p.m.

Tonight, winds will shift into the NW behind the cold front. It is a weak front, so we're not expecting a huge temp drop tomorrow. NWS has updated tomorrow and Friday temps to 70.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Steveo

Depending on when Emersons flys I would say Ice Out could be today. Right now ports that are clear are: Weirs Beach, Alton and Wolfboro (one small flow about to self destruct). I am not sure of Meredith and Center Harbor. If Emersons flys this afternoon I bet it will be declared; otherwise it will definately be tomorrow.

Steveo,

I think you are right on!

Let the boating season begin!!

R2B

[Bear Islander]

The last of the ice can be seen on some of the IceOut Cams.

http://www.rattlesnakecam.com/iceout.htm

I like the shifting winds part because I am trying to make a time lapse ice out video. Shifting winds makes the ice dance.

[TimmyG]

Wow, this weather sure has been a joy. I was hesitant but I finally put away the snow blower. I don't think I jinxed anything as I had my fingers crossed when I did. I am currently in Boston where my car temp showed 86 degrees when I went for lunch.

If the rain holds off for Saturday morning I am launching at Fay's. I have been watching the webcams constantly. Haven't had this much fun since I worked at a mushroom farm!

TG

[Formula260SS]

Am I the only one not getting anything done today ?

[BlackCatIslander]

I am wondering whether it will safe to put the dock in yet. From the live cams, one gets the impression that the ice is dissappearing rapidly. However, windblown ice can cause extensive damage to docks. Any opinions?

[codeman671]

Originally Posted by Formula260SS

Am I the only one not getting anything done today ?

I have accomplished nothing today. 20+ times to the webcams and checking the forum every 10 minutes... We are dropping a boat in Friday morning whether it has been declared or not.

[TimmyG]

Originally Posted by Formula260SS

Am I the only one not getting anything done today ?

Nope...I think a lot of us are getting plenty of nothing accomplished.

TG

[Webbsatwinni]

Originally Posted by codeman671

I have accomplished nothing today. 20+ times to the webcams and checking the forum every 10 minutes... We are dropping a boat in Friday morning whether it has been declared or not.

Same here, I have been so unproductive today. It sounds silly when you say it's because I am watching ice melt. I am glad to know that I am not the only one.

We planned a family event for this weekend a few weeks ago thinking there was no way ice-out could happen, so I will be watching the other boats on the web cams all weekend log. But it's better than the original plan of the weekend after.

[Island Girl]

On ice out day... are you kidding.. how can we work!!!!! You are not alone, Formula260ss.

[TimmyG]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

On ice out day... are you kidding.. how can we work!!!!! You are not alone, Formula260ss.

I am sure this is a silly question, and the answer will be very evident, but how will we know when Ice-Out is officially declared?

TG

[2 Islands]

We went out to Mink Island late yesterday afternoon from Shep Brown's. We are the boat you saw Fatlazyless!. We dropped the dock, put on the planks and had dinner on the dock. It was absolutely beautiful. It is finally Island Time.

[Steveo]

Boy am I glad I'm not the only nut case watching ice melt. Totally unproductive day but a hell of a lot of fun.

[Slickcraft]

We made a slow but pleasant trip over to Welch Island at 11:00 am today in the wife's Whaler picking-up several blocks of wood on the way. There were a few small patches of ice at the time. We got the seasonal dock down, no damage to the main dock/breakwater. We did not see damage to any breakwaters or cottages in our area.
Very pleasant lunch on the island at a nice 73 degrees there. The flag freshened with a gental wind shift to the west/north west at about 2:30 when we headed back. No ice in sight then. Too bad some had to work today.

[MboroughNeckKid]

I'm stuck in a hotel in Pittsburgh, and its a beautiful day here. How ever i can't pull myself away from the computer. To much ice melting going on, don't want to miss the last piece of ice disappear from the cams!!!!!!

[CanisLupusArctos]

When the winds shifted to West around noon and got enough muscle to overwhelm the lake breeze, two things happened: The temp shot up like crazy to 76.6 degrees (highest since Sept. 26) and the lake ice went bye-bye... down the lake somewhere.

Just posted some new lake sounds (recorded last night). When you visit the WeatherCam, be sure to click the lake sounds/videos button at the left. The new sounds are at the top of the list.

[Lexxi]

Well, did it happen today ????? Ice Out ???? At 3:10 ?????? That was my guess.........

[camp guy]

I draw your attentrion to a remark made by "Slickcraft" about picking up some debris while out on the Lake.

This is a VERY dangerous time of year to be boating - so much debris washed into the Lake, floating at just water level, posing a menace to boats.

I never did any real boatong until after a couple of big winds. There is nothing like a full day of NW wind to purge the Lake of most of the casual debris.

Be careful at this time of year, but, ENJOY!!.

[LadyJane]

Originally Posted by Lexxi

Well, did it happen today ????? Ice Out ???? At 3:10 ?????? That was my guess.........

And my guess was today at 2:47 pm. Looking at the web cams, I have to believe that ice out was today or will be very SOON !! Here in northern Ct. I was out in my kayak on my little lake and two adventurous young men were swimming. Ahh....spring !!!

[codeman671]

If Emerson did not fly today is there a possibility at this time that it actually could be officially out according to the standards? Seems so to me based on what I have seen.

[sum-r breeze]

Does anyone know if Emerson has a specific flight schedule around this time of year? I hope they know we are all waiting with baited breath for the official word! As for watching the ice melt instead of working....HOW COOL IS THAT! Hopefully, no company is doing a productivity study this week. I was up to the lake Sat-Mon Doing the old Wax on Wax off on "The Breeze". It never gets old or tiresome. Just the warm sunshine, the tunes playing and the Buffer in overdrive. Life is good.

Wave 'cuz I'll be waving back
The Breeze

[Just Sold]

I am so bummed out as I had to work today and was never near my computer to see the web cams showing the changes.

I hope Ice Out is declared soon for everyones sake. Let the boating season and enjoyment of our lakes region begin!!!!!!!!!!!

[Skip]

Here's the latest ice-out featured this morning in today's Citizen!

[Rattlesnake Gal]

Wasn’t that nice of the Citizen to mention us here at Winnipesaukee.com!
Rattlesnake Guy mentioned that Silver Lake here is Hollis has been the two-week to Ice-Out indicator. Could be spot on again! I hope I win the contest!
It’s going to be great to be back at the lake! Wahoooooooo!!!!

[chipj29]

Did anyone get that thunderstorm very early this morning? It wasn't a big storm, but it was good to hear the rain. I would think that a warm t-storm would speed things up a bit.