2008 Spring Flood Situation

CanisLupusArctos · 04-29-2008, 08:28 AM

The National Weather Service issued an urban and small stream flood advisory for much of NH for today. It means the same thing as a river flood warning but on a smaller scale, so the stronger word, 'warning' is not necessary.

There is also a river flood warning in effect for the Saco River near Conway because the river is nearing flood stage this morning.

Lake Winnipesuakee is either at or above full level now. This is indicated by the submersion of Black Cat Shoals in the WeatherCam. The last reported lake level from DES was yesterday morning.

Black Cat Weather Station has received 1.99 inches of rain since 10 a.m. yesterday and more is likely for today. The good news is that the state has gotten into the 'dry slot' of this storm. Radar indicates very heavy rain over our neighboring states of Maine and Vermont, with a moisture feed coming off the Atlantic Ocean. The rain to our east will stay there, while the rain to our west is what we'll have to deal with today.

While the rain to our west is heavy, there isn't much of it, so it won't take more than a few hours to pass. After that, we'll taper to showers and skies should begin to clear later tonight.

phoenix · 04-29-2008, 02:05 PM

and to think that Saturday we couldn't burn because it was too dry

CanisLupusArctos · 04-29-2008, 03:30 PM

Black Cat Weather Station has received 2.36 inches of rain from the storm so far and more heavy rain is falling. Radar indicates bands of moderate and heavy rain rotating in from the ocean.

This storm is proving itself a wintertime system as advertised. Cold air is feeding into it from the northwest and this has caused a change to snow in Vermont at elevations above 1000 feet. This change may also take place in the mountains and foothills of New Hampshire before the day is out.

Temps here at the lake are 42 and dropping at a rate of 1.5 deg. per hour.

The National Weather Service has issued a freeze warning for parts of New York state for tonight and also frost advisories in southeastern Massachusetts. Tonight we are expected below freezing here as well.

It now appears that the dry weather to follow this storm may only last until the end of the week. A warm front will approach on Friday. If it pushes through here, we'll have a warm and springlike weekend. Models are now hinting that it will stall instead, allowing a continuous moisture feed into this area.

CanisLupusArctos · 05-04-2008, 02:29 AM

Just what you wanted to hear, I know... but there's another inch of rain on the way for today (Sunday.)

The warm front mentioned in my above post from a few days ago has stalled out to the south of here, and has been the cause of all this cloudiness we've had the last several days. This warm front is associated with the same low pressure system (storm) that just dumped record snow on the northern plains and tornadoes to the south and east of there. That storm is weakening as it moves into New York state, but we're back in the wintertime pattern which means the storm will spawn its offspring along the mid-Atlantic coast which will then become the dominant one.

This whole process will mean more rain... just like in February when it meant more snow, except its not that cold anymore.

Look for rain throughout Sunday, heaviest in the late morning and early afternoon. Highest rainfall totals will be to the south, less to the north.

A cold front will clear the whole mess out of here on Monday but will also result in below-normal temps for at least the first half of the week. It looks like we may get a few showers late in the week (maybe) and then next weekend is starting to look like "a typical day in Ireland." Yay.

jeffk · 05-04-2008, 08:28 AM

It looks like the dam operators at Lakeport have decided we now have "enough" water in the lake because they have started to increase the outflow. Downstream rivers have subsided a bit from earlier so the extra flow shouldn't cause problems. There are showers forecast on and off through the next ten days. It they really are showers not much will change. If we get another stalled soaker the lake level could get interesting.

CanisLupusArctos · 05-04-2008, 12:21 PM

The increased dam outflow is good news. Want some more? Looks like I blew the forecast for today. Since midnight we've had 0.14" rain here. Radar shows "not much" out there. So, unless those dark green and yellow blobs start springing up out of nowhere, today might actually be a mostly rain-free, although damp, day.

Last night New York state was filled with radar echoes of heavy rain, moving into Vermont. And it now appears that just after I went to bed, they miraculously fell apart.

This is one of those times I'm glad to be wrong. Hopefully now the lake level can start to fall.

Merrymeeting · 05-04-2008, 07:43 PM

When you think of it on a global scale, you weren't off by much.

I awoke at ~5AM here in N Central MA this morning and it was pouring! This kept up until at least 9AM. We had close to half an inch of rain today.

CanisLupusArctos · 05-07-2008, 02:04 PM

Get out and enjoy the 70+ temps we have today, because the weather pattern is showing signs of "pulling a February" on us after today. By that, I mean one storm after another... not snow as it was in February (this is May, after all) but with the lake still above-full, the last thing we need is heavy rain in the basin.

It is starting to look like we are going to get a chunk of Friday's nor'easter which earlier looked like it was just going to graze us with showers. After a "cloudy & damp" break on Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, the next storm moves in from Sunday into Monday and the National Weather Service in Gray is already advertising that one as "potent" in their discussion.

In the same discussion, they are hinting at another storm for later next week. If any of these storms start to look like more of a certainty I'll take my own look at the models to make a Winni forecast... in the meantime I'll just leave you with this sort of "Start watching" alert in case it all starts coming together.

NOAA has us circled for heavy rain both Friday and Monday, on their national map of potential hazards (available on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter site under "forecast maps.")

As with all the winter storms, the computer models have been doing a lot of flipflopping on their predictions for these storms, so stay tuned if the possibility of heavy rain is a concern to you.

Merrymeeting · 05-07-2008, 02:13 PM

Anything you can do to break this pattern of great workdays and lousy weekends is appreciated!

The yardwork list is getting longer and not much can get done in a cold downpour.

CanisLupusArctos · 05-07-2008, 02:41 PM

Ahhhhhhh, if only I could control the weather.... Last winter's snow would've been all fluffy western-style powder and NH would've gotten the 9-foot snowstorm instead of California's mountains.... If I could control the weather, you'd know it, every year between Thanksgiving and Easter, you'd know it!

This spring I gave up on hoping for a long stretch of good yard-work weather and started telling myself, "I spent all this money on a super-duper waterproof Gore-Tex jacket for *what* reason? I might as well get my money's worth from this Gore-Tex." Raking in a light rain, I discovered, has benefits like "no dust" and if you have a fire permit, you can burn 'round the clock as long as it's raining... otherwise you have to wait until after 5 p.m.

Merrymeeting · 05-07-2008, 08:56 PM

Quote:

snow would've been all fluffy western-style powder and NH would've gotten the 9-foot snowstorm instead of California's mountains.... If I could control the weather, you'd know it, every year between Thanksgiving and Easter, you'd know it!

When you figure it out, I'll pay for that! Then I would have to retire to fit in all the skiing!

04-29-2008, 08:28 AM	#1
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Urban & Small Stream Flood Advisory The National Weather Service issued an urban and small stream flood advisory for much of NH for today. It means the same thing as a river flood warning but on a smaller scale, so the stronger word, 'warning' is not necessary. There is also a river flood warning in effect for the Saco River near Conway because the river is nearing flood stage this morning. Lake Winnipesuakee is either at or above full level now. This is indicated by the submersion of Black Cat Shoals in the WeatherCam. The last reported lake level from DES was yesterday morning. Black Cat Weather Station has received 1.99 inches of rain since 10 a.m. yesterday and more is likely for today. The good news is that the state has gotten into the 'dry slot' of this storm. Radar indicates very heavy rain over our neighboring states of Maine and Vermont, with a moisture feed coming off the Atlantic Ocean. The rain to our east will stay there, while the rain to our west is what we'll have to deal with today. While the rain to our west is heavy, there isn't much of it, so it won't take more than a few hours to pass. After that, we'll taper to showers and skies should begin to clear later tonight.

04-29-2008, 02:05 PM	#2
phoenix Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: phoenix and moultonboro Posts: 1,561 Thanks: 61 Thanked 276 Times in 194 Posts	and to think that Saturday we couldn't burn because it was too dry __________________ it's tough to make predictions specially about the future

04-29-2008, 03:30 PM	#3
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	More rain on the way today Black Cat Weather Station has received 2.36 inches of rain from the storm so far and more heavy rain is falling. Radar indicates bands of moderate and heavy rain rotating in from the ocean. This storm is proving itself a wintertime system as advertised. Cold air is feeding into it from the northwest and this has caused a change to snow in Vermont at elevations above 1000 feet. This change may also take place in the mountains and foothills of New Hampshire before the day is out. Temps here at the lake are 42 and dropping at a rate of 1.5 deg. per hour. The National Weather Service has issued a freeze warning for parts of New York state for tonight and also frost advisories in southeastern Massachusetts. Tonight we are expected below freezing here as well. It now appears that the dry weather to follow this storm may only last until the end of the week. A warm front will approach on Friday. If it pushes through here, we'll have a warm and springlike weekend. Models are now hinting that it will stall instead, allowing a continuous moisture feed into this area.

05-04-2008, 02:29 AM	#4
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	More rain on the way Just what you wanted to hear, I know... but there's another inch of rain on the way for today (Sunday.) The warm front mentioned in my above post from a few days ago has stalled out to the south of here, and has been the cause of all this cloudiness we've had the last several days. This warm front is associated with the same low pressure system (storm) that just dumped record snow on the northern plains and tornadoes to the south and east of there. That storm is weakening as it moves into New York state, but we're back in the wintertime pattern which means the storm will spawn its offspring along the mid-Atlantic coast which will then become the dominant one. This whole process will mean more rain... just like in February when it meant more snow, except its not that cold anymore. Look for rain throughout Sunday, heaviest in the late morning and early afternoon. Highest rainfall totals will be to the south, less to the north. A cold front will clear the whole mess out of here on Monday but will also result in below-normal temps for at least the first half of the week. It looks like we may get a few showers late in the week (maybe) and then next weekend is starting to look like "a typical day in Ireland." Yay.

05-04-2008, 08:28 AM	#5
jeffk Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,175 Thanks: 207 Thanked 437 Times in 253 Posts	Enough water? It looks like the dam operators at Lakeport have decided we now have "enough" water in the lake because they have started to increase the outflow. Downstream rivers have subsided a bit from earlier so the extra flow shouldn't cause problems. There are showers forecast on and off through the next ten days. It they really are showers not much will change. If we get another stalled soaker the lake level could get interesting.

05-04-2008, 12:21 PM	#6
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	A fizzle? The increased dam outflow is good news. Want some more? Looks like I blew the forecast for today. Since midnight we've had 0.14" rain here. Radar shows "not much" out there. So, unless those dark green and yellow blobs start springing up out of nowhere, today might actually be a mostly rain-free, although damp, day. Last night New York state was filled with radar echoes of heavy rain, moving into Vermont. And it now appears that just after I went to bed, they miraculously fell apart. This is one of those times I'm glad to be wrong. Hopefully now the lake level can start to fall.

05-04-2008, 07:43 PM	#7
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	When you think of it on a global scale, you weren't off by much. I awoke at ~5AM here in N Central MA this morning and it was pouring! This kept up until at least 9AM. We had close to half an inch of rain today.

05-07-2008, 02:04 PM	#8
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Stormy times ahead... Get out and enjoy the 70+ temps we have today, because the weather pattern is showing signs of "pulling a February" on us after today. By that, I mean one storm after another... not snow as it was in February (this is May, after all) but with the lake still above-full, the last thing we need is heavy rain in the basin. It is starting to look like we are going to get a chunk of Friday's nor'easter which earlier looked like it was just going to graze us with showers. After a "cloudy & damp" break on Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, the next storm moves in from Sunday into Monday and the National Weather Service in Gray is already advertising that one as "potent" in their discussion. In the same discussion, they are hinting at another storm for later next week. If any of these storms start to look like more of a certainty I'll take my own look at the models to make a Winni forecast... in the meantime I'll just leave you with this sort of "Start watching" alert in case it all starts coming together. NOAA has us circled for heavy rain both Friday and Monday, on their national map of potential hazards (available on the Winnipesaukee WeatherCenter site under "forecast maps.") As with all the winter storms, the computer models have been doing a lot of flipflopping on their predictions for these storms, so stay tuned if the possibility of heavy rain is a concern to you.

05-07-2008, 02:13 PM	#9
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 302 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	Anything you can do to break this pattern of great workdays and lousy weekends is appreciated! The yardwork list is getting longer and not much can get done in a cold downpour.

05-07-2008, 02:41 PM	#10
CanisLupusArctos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Center Harbor Posts: 1,049 Thanks: 15 Thanked 472 Times in 107 Posts	Ahhhhhhh, if only I could control the weather.... Last winter's snow would've been all fluffy western-style powder and NH would've gotten the 9-foot snowstorm instead of California's mountains.... If I could control the weather, you'd know it, every year between Thanksgiving and Easter, you'd know it! This spring I gave up on hoping for a long stretch of good yard-work weather and started telling myself, "I spent all this money on a super-duper waterproof Gore-Tex jacket for what reason? I might as well get my money's worth from this Gore-Tex." Raking in a light rain, I discovered, has benefits like "no dust" and if you have a fire permit, you can burn 'round the clock as long as it's raining... otherwise you have to wait until after 5 p.m.