Watching the Tropics - 2008

[Rose]

Originally Posted by chipj29

The last forecasted track of Ike that I saw had him heading almost due west into the Caribbean.

As others said above, keep your eyes open this year. We have had some pretty wild weather so far...

I kinda like Ike's track on the ECMWF*

*This is time sensitive. Make sure the "Step(->valid time)" is set for "240(Sat 13 Sep 2008 00UTC)" and the "Forecast base time" is set for "Wed 3 Sep 2008 00 UTC". That's the chart that has me interested but could change on the next model run.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by Rose

I kinda like Ike's track on the ECMWF

Ummmm....Yikes!! Or is it YIKEs

[CanisLupusArctos]

YEEEAAAHHH! To that latest Ike track.

Hanna's track now looks the same. A coast-hugger.

[meteotrade]

I'm willing to bet the track of Hanna goes over or just off the SNE coast. Fun times for the Cape and Nantucket, but nothing more than a run of the mill noreaster for the lake. Rain and cool- a purely terrible weekend. I guess we could use a little water, been bone dry for a couple weeks now.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Floyd did the coastal route in 1999, and for most of NH it wasn't anything special, but around the northwest end of the lake there was local topographic enhancement of the northeast wind that led to the felling of hundreds of trees.

I drove up to the lake from Portsmouth, where a "run of the mill nor'easter" was happening, and I found increasing amounts of tree debris on the road as I got west of Gilford. Through Meredith I was regularly driving around large tree limbs in the road. Ultimately I couldn't get into the house because there was a tree and wires across the road. A firefighter on scene told me they wouldn't be able to clear it until the next day because of all the others just like it. I had to spend the night elsewhere.

Every tropical system is different, so there is no guarantee that Hanna will live up to any previous storm, but we should also remember that every tropical system--even a remnant low--is capable of its own brand of destruction.

[katiesmom]

Rose I hope you have a great time on your windjammer cruise they are alot of fun. I was on one years ago and we didn't know a hurricane was heading our way until the day we got off the boat because there is no tv papers etc. They really know what they are doing and will not put you or their boat in danger. What site is that you provided the link to I am in Stuart Fla and using that it looks as though it is coming right at us. I wanted to track the other storms too thanks

[Rose]

Originally Posted by katiesmom

Rose I hope you have a great time on your windjammer cruise they are alot of fun. I was on one years ago and we didn't know a hurricane was heading our way until the day we got off the boat because there is no tv papers etc. They really know what they are doing and will not put you or their boat in danger. What site is that you provided the link to I am in Stuart Fla and using that it looks as though it is coming right at us. I wanted to track the other storms too thanks

Thanks for the well wishes. I'm sure they won't put us in danger, but what happened to the Fantome in Hurricane Mitch is always in the back of my mind. I'd hate for them to risk themselves to save the ship.

That site is the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, and the model they run is called by the center's acronym. It's a very good model, but the Europeans are notorious for being stingy with their weather data and products, so I don't use it as much as I use the US and Canadian models.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hanna is looking more like a nor'easter to me this morning. I still hesitate to call any tropical system "just a nor'easter," but it's had a hard time pulling itself together into that classic pinwheel shape the last several days. It'll move up the coast at us, and we should prepare for lots of wind and rain, but as R2B mentions it'll be fast moving. I'm guessing the effects will be similar to what we get from the strong winter nor'easters except we're not getting snow.

Earlier I had said that Hanna stood a chance at being like Floyd of 1999 (here.) Today I thought better of that prediction. Floyd chugged across the Atlantic as a major hurricane and still had plenty of tropical features in it when it aimed at us. Hanna is having a hard time retaining its tropical features. It has spent more time in a state of disorganization than as a well-aligned system.

My eyes are turning to Ike, with great wonder: What will it do, once it is in the same place where Hanna is now? It could keep going and hit Florida, or it could follow Hanna's track up the east coast. This storm has more potential to be like Floyd, if not Bob (1991) or Gloria (1985)... IF it decides to come up the east coast.

Here's a bit of hurricane trivia: The last time a hurricane warning was issued for the New England coast was not in hurricane season at all, but in January 2005. The Blizzard of 2005 had maximum sustained winds greater than 74 mph (along the coast) and so the hurricane flags had to be hoisted over the ports. To avoid confusion, the National Weather Service advertised the alert as a "Hurricane Force Wind Warning" rather than "Hurricane Warning." The wind drove sheets of sea spray on the coastal homes where it froze so thick the owners had to chip their way in upon returning. It was a blessing, however: The ice layer was credited with protecting the structures from wind damage. Salem, Massachusetts got 38 inches of snow from that storm.

[chipj29]

CLA, a third scenario has Ike turning harmlessly out to sea. Additionally, there are several different scenarios once it hits land.

1. Hits Florida, and heads up the coast
2. Hits Florida, and turns a sharp right out to sea
3. Hits NC/SC/VA, and heads up the coast
4. Hits NC/SC/VA, and turns a sharp right out to sea
5. Hits New England (unlikely)
6. Misses all above landfalls and just turns out to sea
7. None of the above

Either way, Ike is surely an interesting one for the entire eastern seaboard to be watching over the next 7-10 days.

[Resident 2B]

A stream of dry air coming out of Georgia, flowing north to south over Florida has been sucked into Hanna's circulation causing Hanna to lose most of her tropical characteristics. However, recently Hanna has pushed the dry air off of Florida and looks to be trying to wrap her moisture around the circulation center.

If Hanna is able to win her battle with the dry air, she could still become a hurricane before hitting the Carolinas and be a tropical storm Saturday near us.

If the dry air wins, Hanna's remains will likely go out to sea to our south.

Time will tell!

Ike could be a big concern if some of the models are correct. Still way too early to get excited over Ike, but he is something to watch.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Here is my Hanna forecast, also available as part of my regular "weather notes" on the local forecast section of the WeatherCenter site.

I agree with and have "translated" this morning's NWS forecast discussion from Gray ME. Here is my reasoning: Even though the warm and muggy stuff is over us now, we know from our "where was summer?" experience that the cool air is still nearby somewhere; this humid summery air just managed to boot it aside for a couple of days. With that said, a strong circulation like Hanna will most certainly be taking a big breath of Autumn as it buzzes our coastline. Have you seen the changing leaves? The same kind of weather that's given us some early foliage is also what will help Hanna transform from a tropical system to a winter-style east coast system.

My note follows:

Tropical Storm Hanna will make a run up the east coast in the next 48 hours.
This will bring us a day of tropical downpours tomorrow, but I don't think the
entire day will be a washout. The bulk of the rain will hold off until late
afternoon and evening. This storm will be making a transformation from a
tropical storm to a powerful nor'easter. The difference is this: A tropical
storm has a symmetric pinwheel structure and the heaviest rain is usually on the
east side of the center. In a nor'easter, the structure of the storm is comma-
shaped, not symmetric, and the heaviest rain is on the northern and western side
of the center. Hanna's center will be right off the New England coast on Sunday
morning as it makes the transition from "tropical" to "Nor'easter." That will
shift the heavy rain from offshore (east of the center) to "over us" (west and
north of the center.)

While much of the state has seen incredible amounts of rain all summer, it's a
close call as to whether or not more flooding will occur from Hanna. If rainfall
rates are heavy enough, there could be flash flooding, but it looks like we're
going to get spared the lasting, general flooding tropical storms and remnants
often generate because Hanna will be moving very quickly. If the storm slows
down at all, we would likely get some general flooding.

Strong winds, especially along the coast, will blow from the northeast. Gusts
could get past 50 mph on a few occasions early Sunday morning. Winds away from
the coast could hit 40 mph a few times but will generally stay in the 20-30 mph
range. Winds will shift to the northwest and begin to quickly diminish late
Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon as skies begin to clear.

For the latest official information on Hanna or Ike, visit the National Hurricane
Center's web site at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

[Resident 2B]

Hanna has won her battle with the dry air and has redevloped a core. The recent satellite loops clearly show this and the 2 PM NHC update should note this as well. This is an important step towards becoming a hurricane again. I looks to me that Hanna will be a Hurricane within the next six to nine hours.

This does not really change the lakes region forecast much and I think CLA has done his usual great job in stating what is likely to happen around here tomorrow and into Sunday morning.

The potential for a stronger storm has an increasing impact on Cape Cod and Long Island, the one in NY.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Copied and pasted from the NWS in Gray Maine, who issued this flash flood watch for our region. Given the expected track of the storm I think this will be a storm where the NW end of the lake will get rainfall amounts in the lower half of the range mentioned.... Alton gets more than Center Harbor....Rochester gets more than Alton....Portsmouth gets the jackpot. Except it ain't snow this time.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...THE REMNANTS OF HANNA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.AS THE REMNANTS OF HANNA TRACKS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS OF
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
BY THE TIME THE RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST...WHERE ISOLATED 5
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL IN LESS
THAN 6 HOURS. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS MUCH RAIN IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD RESULT IN FLOODING.

URBAN FLOODING...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAM...SEEMS
TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT. WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF RAIN...IT
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

[Island Girl]

CLA .... I am out here in a house on stilts... so read your posts with great interest.

What do you think about Ike coming this way?

IG

[HomeWood]

It's 3:30am and I'm at enjoying Hanna's company right now. Lot's of rain! Imagine if it was snow..

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Island Girl

CLA .... I am out here in a house on stilts... so read your posts with great interest.

What do you think about Ike coming this way?

IG

I think it's looking highly unlikely now. Current forecast track for Ike takes it into the Gulf of Mexico after buzzing the northern coast of Cuba. If it manages to keep its center over water, passing between Cuba and the tip of Florida, we could be looking at another threat to the Gulf Coast states and the offshore oil operations.

Are you saying your house on Rattlesnake is on stilts? I think when Hanna moves through here tonight, it definitely won't be a good night to be riding around in The Broads. According to the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center it is expected to maintain sustained winds of 45 knots around its center, BUT as mentioned yesterday, it will be making the transition from "warm-core tropical" to "cold-core nor'easter" while it is passing Cape Cod. This throws a wrench into attempts to forecast its effects here because the storm's behavior will be changing as it makes the transition. I suspect that is also the reason why NHC hasn't extended the tropical storm warning north of the Merrimack River MA. There are no tropical advisories at all for the NH or ME coasts even though tropical storm force winds are a possibility there (and here.) It won't be coming from a "tropical" storm once it makes the transformation into a nor'easter. It'll just be a nor'easter... like the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2007 or any similar winter storm. The exception will be that there are leaves on the trees at this time of year which makes them more likely to catch the wind and be damaged by it (that doesn't happen in winter) and also, this won't be snow. I agree with HomeWood, though: Imagine if it was..... maybe this situation will repeat late enough in the hurricane season so there's lots of cold air over us, and we can get the ski season started early... and maybe the thing will stall instead of moving quickly, so we can keep the ski season going.... one can dream...

In the meantime, I expect the strongest winds to be closer to the storm's track but they will likely spread out a bit as it makes the transition to a nor'easter. Inland (here) the winds won't get past 35 mph much, but we all know that it's a different story out on the lake. A 25 mph wind over the towns is often a 45 mph wind out on the open lake.

[Island Girl]

... for posting the rainfall and lake levels so quickly. I personally like the higher levels.. easier to get into the boat! DES' site is not showing the correct levels as far as I can see.... You are a great asset to all of us!!!

The lake is boiling this morning with a heavy NW wind... much more wind than we had last night with Hanna. The white caps are thick and the flaf is out straight some of the time. This will be a good day to build those shelves I have been meaning to do!

IG

[DRH]

We got 4.75" here in West Alton between 7:00 am on Sat. and 7:00 am this morning.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by chipj29

CLA, a third scenario has Ike turning harmlessly out to sea. Additionally, there are several different scenarios once it hits land.

1. Hits Florida, and heads up the coast
2. Hits Florida, and turns a sharp right out to sea
3. Hits NC/SC/VA, and heads up the coast
4. Hits NC/SC/VA, and turns a sharp right out to sea
5. Hits New England (unlikely)
6. Misses all above landfalls and just turns out to sea
7. None of the above

Either way, Ike is surely an interesting one for the entire eastern seaboard to be watching over the next 7-10 days.

Looks like #7 is going to be the way Ike goes. Straight to Texas...
Good thing I didn't pursue a career in weather...

[CanisLupusArctos]

We may get Ike after all. After he makes landfall in Texas, recurving is likely and the remnants will be headed in a northeast direction after that. I think the peak of hurricane season has just passed though. It was a party out there for the last couple of weeks but things seem to be quickly morphing into "fall" in North America now. It's not done, so watch out, but I have a feeling we've just seen the busiest part of the season.

[Resident 2B]

It has been too quiet in the tropics the last two weeks, but it is looking like things are about to change. There is an area with the potentail to develop near Puerto Rico. The area could be a depression in a day or two.

Models move this system to the Carolinas by Thursday or Friday. It may or may not be a TS or a Hurricane, but it looks like a very wet system. From the Carolinas it looks to hook northwest into the Delmarva which is unusual. We could see rain, maybe a lot of rain, a week from now.

It will be something for us to watch and will liven up what has been a dull two weeks.

70 years ago yesterday the Hurricane of '38 clobbered Long Island and New England. Although the weather has cooled here in NH, there is still a lot of warm water south of Long Island, and tropical systems can still hit the northeast this time of the year.

R2B

[GWC...]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

It has been too quiet in the tropics the last two weeks, but it is looking like things are about to change. There is an area with the potentail to develop near Puerto Rico. The area could be a depression in a day or two.

Models move this system to the Carolinas by Thursday or Friday. It may or may not be a TS or a Hurricane, but it looks like a very wet system. From the Carolinas it looks to hook northwest into the Delmarva which is unusual. We could see rain, maybe a lot of rain, a week from now.

It will be something for us to watch and will liven up what has been a dull two weeks.
R2B

The computer models:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/dat...0893_model.gif

and the satellite image view:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...00893_sat.html

[Resident 2B]

Although the tropical wave has not developed into a depression yet, as soon as it get away from the mountains in the Dominican Republic, the warm water and favorable upper level conditions should allow for rapid development. Once developed, it will merge with a low off the Carolinas, perhaps becoming sub-tropical or a hybrid, and move up the coast.

Timing now looks like Friday or Saturday for a good solid soaking in the lakes region.

It is still early, and things can change, but we could have a named storm at our doorstep within three days, and very little is being mentioned outside of the NWS technical discussions.

It could get interesting!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Although the tropical wave has not developed into a depression yet, as soon as it get away from the mountains in the Dominican Republic, the warm water and favorable upper level conditions should allow for rapid development. Once developed, it will merge with a low off the Carolinas, perhaps becoming sub-tropical or a hybrid, and move up the coast.

Timing now looks like Friday or Saturday for a good solid soaking in the lakes region.

It is still early, and things can change, but we could have a named storm at our doorstep within three days, and very little is being mentioned outside of the NWS technical discussions.

It could get interesting!

R2B

Agreed. In fact, very little was being mentioned IN the discussions until the last day or so. NOAA-at-large was predicting a potential rain & wind hazard for this weekend while our local NWS was going for sunny. At this point I would put my bets on an early nor'easter type situation, and if it tracks off the coast it would probably end as snow in the mountains, given the kind of cold air that seems to be available to our NW this fall. Should be interesting.

[GWC...]

Some updates for Hurricane Kyle...

the Tracking Map:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical.../at200811.html

the Computer Models:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...l.html#a_topad

and the Satellite Image view:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...t.html#a_topad

[Resident 2B]

Buoy 44011 is the George's Bank Bouy about 150 NM east of Chatham, Ma. It is in the strong wind sector of Kyle and at 11:00 recorded a wind gust of 70 NMPH (knots) and a sustained wind of 54 NMPH (knots). It also had 36 foot wave heights with an average period (time between waves) of 10 seconds. That is very rough water!

Buoy 44011 is only 275 miles east southeast of Alton Bay.

Although the two storms, Kyle and the storm without a name that hit the Carolinas, never joined together as I thought they would, they made for a very close call for the lakes region. If they got together, I believe the combined storms' path would have been 200 miles west of Kyle's path. That would have been a little too interesting.

Looks to me like our tropical season in NH is now over. The sea water off the northeast coast is cooling and Kyle started the transition to extra-tropical well south of Cape Cod.

The winds from the weekend storms were not a factor in taking color off the trees, so it looks like the next week or two will have excellent color. This is the best time to be on or near the lake.

Enjoy!

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

I had thought the tropical season was just about over when Kyle formed, and the unnamed storm of the Carolinas. Both were very weak as tropical systems go, and I noticed Kyle's life was not an easy one. Looks like later this week is a return to the cool & unsettled pattern we had in early summer, except we'll be cooler this time around because it's late September. Lots of nice foliage out there. Some small valleys within the lakes region are near peak now. As R2B mentions, Kyle didn't do anything to the foliage. We had nearly calm winds all day at Black Cat.. and the heaviest rain came early in the weekend. Kyle was a dud here. We even had a sunny and humid afternoon.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by CanisLupusArctos

We even had a sunny and humid afternoon.

Humid does not even begin to describe it! Ugh, nasty stuff. Even my toilet was sweating, can't remember the last time I saw that in late September!