Snowstorm Wednesday 1/28

Resident 2B · 01-27-2009, 09:59 PM

It is looking more like we will see a switch to freezing rain in the middle of the storm at least in the southern parts of the lake. I do not think it will be anything like we had in December, but I am seeing warm air at the mid levels due to the strength and path of the primary storm. I also think the coastal secondary may be north of Long Island, NY and not off the coast until it crosses the coast near Plymouth, Ma.

So, it will snow very hard for the first half of the storm, due to the high vertical lift or omega, perhaps around 8 to 10 inches around Alton and around 12 inches or a bit more near Black Cat Island. But, the warm layer will cause mixing and that will pack the snow down some or at least make it wetter.

Time will tell, but I think the NWS will be making mentin of this soon.

R2B

AC2717 · 01-27-2009, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

It is looking more like we will see a switch to freezing rain in the middle of the storm at least in the southern parts of the lake. I do not think it will be anything like we had in December, but I am seeing warm air at the mid levels due to the strength and path of the primary storm. I also think the coastal secondary may be north of Long Island, NY and not off the coast until it crosses the coast near Plymouth, Ma.

So, it will snow very hard for the first half of the storm, due to the high vertical lift or omega, perhaps around 8 to 10 inches around Alton and around 12 inches or a bit more near Black Cat Island. But, the warm layer will cause mixing and that will pack the snow down some or at least make it wetter.

Time will tell, but I think the NWS will be making mentin of this soon.

R2B

Hi R2B and CLA.
I am getting conflicting information for NOAA and from all the stations down here in Boston, can you tell me the honest forecast for the boston area within 128 belt below the MA Pike? You guys have been right more than then and I trust your outlooks. I do not think this storm has a chance to move up given the cold air pushing back down and if it hits the ocean much like the one in December the weekend of the 19th, that never really stopped until the end of the Sunday

Resident 2B · 01-28-2009, 09:03 AM

Just checking soundings and looking down stream a bit and the warm air at mid-levels will not reach the lake. The changeover to sleet and freezing rain will be well south of us.

Because the storm will be colder, the ratio will be 10:1 to 15:1 on average and with all the moisture, this wil be a significant event. It is looking like 1.5 to 2.5 feet at this time with some drifting at the end.

R2B

CentreHarborEric · 01-28-2009, 10:38 AM

Can't wait.
Can anyone comment on the conditions before this storm? I can imagine they were pretty firm.
Hopefully there will be so much new snow we won't even be able to get down to the old stuff!!
Thanks, I love the weather chatter. I have no idea what an Omega is, but it sounds pretty convincing and when I see comments like 1.5 to 2.5 feet of snow, I get excited!

hilltopper · 01-28-2009, 12:35 PM

Not even 2" in Meredith yet but it looks like the heavy stuff is moving in. At this rate we'll be snowblowing at midnight

. The heavy stuff, assuming the forecast is still holding up, is definitley at least a handful of hours behind schedule. Mother Nature is going to make getting out of the driveway at 6 AM tomorrow difficult!

hazelnut · 01-28-2009, 12:58 PM

We're getting down here in MA. So far 4+ inches I'd say where I am just north of the MA Pike and a hair west of 128. I'm awaiting the changeover to rain before I warm up the Snowblower.

AC2717 · 01-28-2009, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hazelnut

We're getting down here in MA. So far 4+ inches I'd say where I am just north of the MA Pike and a hair west of 128. I'm awaiting the changeover to rain before I warm up the Snowblower.

I do not think it will change over as quickly here in MA, I am in Quincy MA at work right now and we are still getting a good clip of snow and it was forecasted that it would change by about 11:30 or so here. I really hope they are wrong with the change to rain anyways, got a Big Sledding get together on Saturday! BRING ON THE SNOW!

Anyone care to enlighten us on new forecasts given the storm is a little slow today? I am hoping I am right, but I would guess that the snow/rain line is having trouble shifting North due to the cold air pushing down and the wind off the ocean has not been able to recirculate

Rose · 01-28-2009, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CentreHarborEric

I have no idea what an Omega is, but it sounds pretty convincing and when I see comments like 1.5 to 2.5 feet of snow, I get excited!

Omega is the change in pressure over time in the vertical dimension, so you can think of it as vertical velocity. For anyone feeling a little mathletic, here's a link to equations representing omega.

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/omega.htm

trfour · 01-28-2009, 07:45 PM

A huge thank you to Rose, CLA, R2B and just plain Weathernuts Everywhere!!

All of these weather threads are " Awesome!! "

CanisLupusArctos · 01-28-2009, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC2717

Hi R2B and CLA.
I am getting conflicting information for NOAA and from all the stations down here in Boston, can you tell me the honest forecast for the boston area within 128 belt below the MA Pike? You guys have been right more than then and I trust your outlooks. I do not think this storm has a chance to move up given the cold air pushing back down and if it hits the ocean much like the one in December the weekend of the 19th, that never really stopped until the end of the Sunday

I see the radar showing ocean-influence moving westward but having some trouble getting inland from the immediate shore. It's all mix and rain off the MA coast now, with rain on Cape Cod and sleet in RI. Given this scenario I don't think it will be long before Boston changes over to sleet. However, there is a very sharp cutoff between the ocean influence and the cold air inland. For example Portsmouth is 29 right now and Manchester is 19, as is Rochester.

I think Boston area inside of Rt 128 from the MA pike southward will probably get more of a messy 6 inches out of this today, and then a change back to snow tonight with another inch or two. That will happen very quickly as the storm passes and winds shift from east into the NW.

For the Lakes Region I'll go for an average of 18 inches with the most snow falling on the east-facing slopes of hills as well as near them... but the lake's effect of "runway from the ocean" as I mentioned in last post concerns me with this one. There is a chance the sleet could make it farther inland along the Rt 11 corridor where landforms help channel the inland-bound air.

Keep up with the latest snowfall reports by visiting www.blackcatnh.com/weather and choose "rain and snow amounts" from the menu at left.

Merrymeeting · 01-28-2009, 04:50 PM

About 4-6" here in N Central MA, along Rt 495 near Rt. 2. It changed to rain/sleet about 90 minutes ago and is raining hard now. Seems to be melting/condensing much of what has fallen.

Now I just hope I can get it cleared before it hardens again.

01-27-2009, 09:59 PM	#1
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	Snow, to ice?! It is looking more like we will see a switch to freezing rain in the middle of the storm at least in the southern parts of the lake. I do not think it will be anything like we had in December, but I am seeing warm air at the mid levels due to the strength and path of the primary storm. I also think the coastal secondary may be north of Long Island, NY and not off the coast until it crosses the coast near Plymouth, Ma. So, it will snow very hard for the first half of the storm, due to the high vertical lift or omega, perhaps around 8 to 10 inches around Alton and around 12 inches or a bit more near Black Cat Island. But, the warm layer will cause mixing and that will pack the snow down some or at least make it wetter. Time will tell, but I think the NWS will be making mentin of this soon. R2B

01-28-2009, 09:03 AM	#3
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	Looking whiter than I thought last night... Just checking soundings and looking down stream a bit and the warm air at mid-levels will not reach the lake. The changeover to sleet and freezing rain will be well south of us. Because the storm will be colder, the ratio will be 10:1 to 15:1 on average and with all the moisture, this wil be a significant event. It is looking like 1.5 to 2.5 feet at this time with some drifting at the end. R2B

01-28-2009, 10:38 AM	#4
CentreHarborEric Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 48 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Heading to Gunstock for afternoon/night skiing Can't wait. Can anyone comment on the conditions before this storm? I can imagine they were pretty firm. Hopefully there will be so much new snow we won't even be able to get down to the old stuff!! Thanks, I love the weather chatter. I have no idea what an Omega is, but it sounds pretty convincing and when I see comments like 1.5 to 2.5 feet of snow, I get excited!

01-28-2009, 12:35 PM	#5
hilltopper Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Meredith Posts: 727 Thanks: 25 Thanked 109 Times in 70 Posts	Not much yet... Not even 2" in Meredith yet but it looks like the heavy stuff is moving in. At this rate we'll be snowblowing at midnight . The heavy stuff, assuming the forecast is still holding up, is definitley at least a handful of hours behind schedule. Mother Nature is going to make getting out of the driveway at 6 AM tomorrow difficult!

01-28-2009, 12:58 PM	#6
hazelnut Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 1,348 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 508 Thanked 462 Times in 162 Posts	snow in MA We're getting down here in MA. So far 4+ inches I'd say where I am just north of the MA Pike and a hair west of 128. I'm awaiting the changeover to rain before I warm up the Snowblower.

01-28-2009, 07:45 PM	#9
trfour Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX. Posts: 3,694 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 3,069 Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts	From All Us Weather Nuts And More.... A huge thank you to Rose, CLA, R2B and just plain Weathernuts Everywhere!! All of these weather threads are " Awesome!! " __________________ *trfour* Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html

01-28-2009, 04:50 PM	#11
Merrymeeting Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Merrymeeting Lake, New Durham Posts: 2,226 Thanks: 303 Thanked 800 Times in 368 Posts	About 4-6" here in N Central MA, along Rt 495 near Rt. 2. It changed to rain/sleet about 90 minutes ago and is raining hard now. Seems to be melting/condensing much of what has fallen. Now I just hope I can get it cleared before it hardens again.