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#1 |
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Like many who begin getting anxious this time of year and check the webcams several times a day for "clues" of signs of a pending ice out...I am now on the constant web cam watch looking for the sign I find most telling. That sign is from the Black Cat cam where there is a set of rocks in the lower center of the shot. In general, when there is open water out to those rocks, we are on a two weeks to ice out phase. As open water begins...that shot becomes one of my focal points. To this point, there is NO open water even around the rocks telling me we definetly won't see ice out for the April 1 opener.
I'm wondering what others use to guage their ice out estimates and where they now think we are at. Are there any clues that recent rains and wind is accelerating our progress? Any hope for ice out in the first week or two of April??? The ice out watch has begun! |
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#2 |
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I was out checking water depths this morning for a couple of jobs in and around the black cat island area and we have a firm 22 inches of ice on the lake. It may differ in other locations but not by much. My best guess at this point for ice out will be the first week of April.
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#3 | |
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I still think I will be at my Camp come April 1st just not sure if ice out will be declared by then...it will be close. Dan Here’s a pic of what the ice looks like today in the broads. Still has a ways to go but as you can see it’s getting that dark gray color....
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#4 |
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I always use LILY POND as an Ice Out Indicator. When Lily Pond starts to go, Ice out will be soon. When Ice is Totally off Lily Pond, Winnie will declared ICE-OUT within 7 or 8 days. Not 9 or 10, 7 or 8...
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#5 |
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Wow...I just requested to pick up my boat from storage on April 6 in hopes of spashing her on April 7. I may have to push that up a week if this prediction is true. I'm suprised how many are anticipating IceOut at the beginning of April given reports of 20" of ice. Can't imagine we lose 20" in just 24 days but I like the optimism. I'm hearing a major storm may hit Wed. If heavy snow...I'm hoping that may accelerate Ice Out by pushing the ice underwater but am thinking it could insulate it and slow the process.
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#6 | |
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I think a storm with significant snowfall on Wednesday would be a game changer as it would definitely insulate and impede the thawing process by blocking the suns rays. Usually I love and want snow but at this point I’m ready for open water and spring salmon! Dan
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#7 |
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The warm weather really opened up the water near the shore around Cattle landing. open water extending a good 20 feet or more. It seemed like it happened in a matter of 3-4 days.
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#8 | |
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Of course, they were also saying 3"-5", or 1"-3", or just rain... depending on what time you looked at the reports. Salmon - yum! |
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#9 |
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...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches are expected. This would have been nice a couple months ago, now not so much. |
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#10 | |
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#11 | |
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Dan
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#12 |
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Good news. Fire up the sled.............
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#13 |
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The thing is about snow this time of year, it is more of an annoyance. There are a lot of bare spots showing and a foot of snow will not be enough to groom or make the ice safe. The high temps after the storm are supposed to be around 40 for the next 5 days so melting will continue. Yeah, it might slow ice out a bit but no hard freeze is in the forecast. Accuweather only predicts one day through the end of March that will be below freezing for a high temp.
I have a dirt driveway and it is muddy now. The guy who plows will not be able to clear it fully because he would dig up the mud. So he will clear the upper layer and pack down the rest. All the rest will be slush the next day. |
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#14 | |
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#15 |
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So much for my hopeful thoughts of an early April ice out! With the snow cover we received yesterday and the upcoming 10 day forecast for lows in the teens and low to mid 20's, things are definitely not looking good!! Possibly more snow on Monday now too!!
Here is a pic from this morning Sheesh!... Dan
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#16 |
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It ain’t over til the fat lady sings, Dan!
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#17 |
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Congratulations....way to ruin another thread with your insatiable desire to inject politics into any topic!
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#18 |
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#19 |
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From the water temperature page, 39-degrees on March 6 is a lot warmer than other years, so what's warming up the water?
Is there a new nuclear power plant hidden away somewhere in Tuftonboro, that discharges warm water in the lake, or what?
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#20 |
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There were active water bars flowing water to the lake the weekend of the Winni Derby and they never refroze. Earliest I recall seeing them in many years.
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#21 | |
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#22 | |
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You must of seen the big cooling towers near the reactor.
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#23 | |
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From the picture link, you can see - no tower! But, I don't think it is close enough to the lake to be the root cause ![]() |
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#24 | |
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![]() https://www.researchgate.net/publica...charge_tunnels Looks like someone beat me to it! |
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#25 |
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I had picked April 10th for ice out, now it looks at least a week earlier than that. Large dark patches are forming meaning that the ice candles are forming. Each sunny day will melt more ice from the bottom up and the structure will weaken.
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#26 |
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I was just wondering if there were still any fishing shanties out on the lake, like in Meredith Harbor, and is there a particular date that they have to be removed? I see from the photos that the ice is beginning to have that look. I appreciate the photos, thanks.
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#27 | |
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Hut literally became a "bob" house until they were able to somehow get it up and out. Good news though, the ice looked pretty well cleaned off of trash.
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#28 | |
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#29 |
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Very interesting insight and information Blue Thunder. Thank you.
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#30 |
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Not to depress anyone, but I have a friend who was ice fishing somewhere off Spindle Point this past weekend. He informed me that there was still 18" of solid ice there!!...
![]() ![]() I did see a few ATV's and snowmobiles traveling across the broads all weekend. While there may be plenty of ice, I have seen the size of some of the holes that have formed now covered by a little snow I certainly would not be out there! Dan
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#31 |
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I was on the deck discussing the, what looked like a still solid ice pack, with my brother. The wind picked up and got very strong. All of a sudden everything broke loose in a fury. Huge ice bergs traveling very fast. It was an amazing scene. I remember the news the next day said a lot of docks, left in with circulators, were destroyed.
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#32 |
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Could it have been Candle Ice, or some other type of Rotten Ice?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candle_ice https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotten_ice Things like this always makes me leery when someone says "It's safe, the Ice is 2 feet thick, this is more than enough to be safe!"
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#33 |
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I own a condo on the "west-facing" shoreline of Weirs Beach, and I have a "Web-Cam" facing down the lake towards Meredith. Other than the shoreline being ice-free from the gas dock to about 100 yards out, and about 30 to 50 feet from the entire shoreline....the lake is solid ice all the way to Meridith. Looks like a good 2+ weeks till "ICE OUT"... Can't wait WINNIPESAUKEEBOB
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#34 |
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trying to remain an optimist but I think Bob has the over/under on the nose at two weeks. I'm hoping we can trim a few days off that estimate. While cameras I use to mark some milestones (Alton Bay and Black Cat) are no longer online, I do see that on most web cams the snow cover has now melted from the ice allowing the "more directly overhead" sun to shine its intensity directly onto the ice and into the surface water below it. Sometimes things happen very fast once we are in this state as open water at edges allows for some ice movement such that some wind can cause things to begin to break up and move around. A good rain storm wouldn't hurt either. Next few days in 50s so I'm expecting visible progress. If anyone has a webcam link in Alton Bay...please post it.
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#35 |
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#36 |
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Yesterdays 60 degree weather definitely did a number on the surface snow that was on the ice! This morning the ice is darker and wet with surface water. The usual large fissure that occurs between Welch island and Lake Shore Park is now visible. Lily pond was still solid as a rock even at the shoreline yesterday afternoon.
My two week indicator (Massabesic Lake) still had some minor ice in the coves yesterday morning which will hopefully be gone in the next few days. Ice out now looks like somewhere around April 20th... With the upcoming rain, that should move things along nicely! Dan
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#37 | |
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#38 |
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This thread has caused me to think long and hard about my future.
When ice out is declared on the exact time and day that I have predicted there will be calls for me to run for public office. To clarify my position on that... If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve. If re-elected, I will again, not serve. Think I nailed it! ![]() Last edited by 8gv; 03-29-2018 at 02:46 PM. |
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#39 | |
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...... Where do you stand on using noodles as a life saving device for snowmobilers How often do you use a noodle as a rowing vessel What is your position on using Emergency (specifically fire rescue) boats as a pickle ball court How far do you drive for free coffee, internet or toilet paper Can you build a M/S Mt. Washington II for under $6.00 ........ As it stands right now, I am writing you in |
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#40 | |
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I have decided to skip tonight’s $1,000/plate campaign fundraiser in my honor. I do think I may have nailed ice out though... ![]() Last edited by 8gv; 04-01-2018 at 09:48 PM. |
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#41 |
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#43 |
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Going by Lily Pond tonight I couldn’t believe how much melting had occurred! Half of Lily Pond is now open water and should be ice free in a day or two!
Wont be long! Dan
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#44 |
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#45 |
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What about CrystlLake in Gilmanon? That is supposed to be a 10 day warning.
We really need a list of lakes and ice out dates for the last 50(?) years. Of course, if it gets too scientific, it loses the magic. No surprise that the Old Farmer's Almanac can predict weather but not ice out. My grandfather used to race horses on Lake Champlain ice. Do they go through this agony every spring too? |
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#46 |
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Went by Lily Pond this morning and about 1/3rd of the pond still has ice on the north side. Should be all gone by Friday...
Dan
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#47 |
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the rain has ice in many cams looking very dark gray. I am certain many areas still have over a foot of ice but the color is similar to what it looks like when we begin to see cracks or openings in the ice. Shoreline ice also appears to be receding very nicely at Weirs and West Alton.
Has anyone been by Alton Bay recently? Is the ice receded to past the gazebo yet? How far is it out at that location? |
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#48 |
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Before moving to Gilford a number of years ago, I lived in Chester and had to ride around Massabesic Lake every day to get to work. Being ever so anxious to get out on the island, I started counting the days from when I could see no ice whatsoever on Massy to when ice out was declared on Winni. It was 14 days like a watch almost every year.
Edited to add these pics I just took from Claire's landing at Massabesic. While the Manchester side of the Lake is wide open, the Auburn side still has some ice. Probably about 4 days worth left... Ice out on Winni will be the week of April 16th... Dan
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#49 | |
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Can’t wait!!
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#53 |
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The edges of Lily Pond were just starting to give yesterday afternoon.
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Plenty of fog this morning on Winni. Temp at 42 and climbing. . Fog loves to "CHEW" on ice....I see lots of "CHUNK" ice breaking away at Weirs Beach area and foating down the Paugus Bay chanel near Thurston's Marina.
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Solid ice here on Alton Bay with just a little open water around some docks. Sleds still out running over the bay 2 nights ago and again today
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Stupidity at its best. Is it really worth it if you end up going through the ice. I just do not understand people sometimes.
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Why wait for Ice Out? Apparently someone has a really bad case of Spring fever.
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bg7IW2AnoKX/ |
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Speak to us about what that means for ice out oh great Ice-trodamus!
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#59 |
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Well, it means Lily is finally starting to melt and when the ice is off Lily Pond we usually have one week to go on Winni...
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#60 |
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Sounds like a possible truck through the ice near Mark Island. Unreal.
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I thought the truck that went through the ice in that area happened several weeks ago. Anyone with a truck on this ice at this point is trying to prove Darwin was right!
Ice has gotten awefully gray on many cams. While I down doubt there is still over a foot of ice in many spots I am betting the integrity of that ice is degrading quickly. Also see a few open fissures on Bear Cam toward Pine and possibly a fissure forming from an old pressure ridge from the camera pointed at Sheps. Rain should speed things even with the temps not helping much the next week or so. Picking up boat next week in hopes of being able to splash her on the 13th....yep Friday the thirteenth. |
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Reports are that this is a new one. Airboat from tuftonboro is on the way. It's is on facebook. Gotta be true if it's on the internet!
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#63 |
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Say hey ..... I saw an air boat slowly going along the west side of Mark Island, on top of the ice, this evening at about 5:30 from a distance of about a mile away.
Was outside raking leaves, and heard the very loud, exhaust sound of a V8-engine with no muffler that goes with an airboat, so's I stopped raking to take a better look with the binoculars. It had some bright yellow panels in the area of the cage that encloses the front area of the large propeller in the stern of the vessel. Thought ...... 'oh well' ...... and went back to raking the wet leaves .... gotta rake these old leaves! On August 24, 2006, the Charlestown NH fire rescue inadvertently drowned 64-year old Virginia Cunningham, from Vermont, while transporting her on the Connecticut River in a flat bottom, air boat. Her injury requiring her to be transported was only an ankle injury, and she was drowned dead while secured in a stokes litter, in the bow of the rescue boat. So's, how's about that ...... talk about a major boo-boo ...... whoopsie-doopsie ....... so sorry! Whenever I hear the very loud exhaust of an air boat, I recall that 2006 drowning incident and think to myself, dang, that was not a happy ending for a rescue.
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... down and out, liv'n that Walmart side of the lake! Last edited by fatlazyless; 03-31-2018 at 07:34 AM. |
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#64 |
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Getting back to ice-out progress!
There is still about 12 inches of ice at the beginning of Braun Bay in front of Far Echo Harbor. |
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#65 |
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Nick @ Thurstons' Marine put my "Toon" boat in the water @ Weirs chanel yesterday. I'll be up the lake on tuesday mornin, fishing.... YAAAAAAYYYY !!!!
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Fished today out in front of 20 mile bay, 19 mile bay and whortleberry island. Good 20 inches of ice. Game wardens stopped by. They rode sleds from Alton up thru the broads past barbers pole to our area. Said the broads had consistent 10-12 inches of ice.
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Did they check your license? On that show "North Woods Law" they ALWAYS check licenses! They seem to be more interested in "catching" somebody than helping. It's just the way they come across in that show. The Maine F&G don't seem to sneak around so much to catch people. Is that me or has anybody else noticed?
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#69 | |
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What boggles my mind is them using snowmobiles this time of year... ![]() |
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Interesting Hill. I have only seen a couple of them so maybe that's why. It just seemed to me that most of what they did was try to sneak up on somebody to see if they were hunting or fishing without a license.
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So are you all actually complaining that the F&G is doing their job?!?
I for one hope they bust as many people as they can who don't or won't purchase a license. I've had my license checked by them while both hunting and fishing. These guys have always been super nice and I'm happy they do. If they have to use some quasi stealth tactics to catch people so be it, shouldn't care if you're doing it right and legal. |
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Also, it seems that much of what people complain about on this forum is basically "people being jerks while 'fill in the blank'". Boating, sledding, fireworks, etc. Many of those behaviors are also violations of rules & laws that are grossly under enforced. Yeah, yeah, I know some of you will complain about enforcement as "fun police", or bad "cus FREEDOM!" but most of these violations result in a loss of fun & freedom for those of us who are responsible in our various activities.
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We will return to our regularly scheduled topic when a few photos of new open water get posted.
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Busted by the thread police! I didn't see you hiding there but I can assure you officer Topwater that I have a license but I left it at home....
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For those folks that keep an eye on Massabesic as an indicator for ice out on Winni.
Massabesic is 99.8 % open with a few boats on it yesterday. The only ice on it was some broken up wind blow ice stacked against the shore south of Claire's landing on RT 121. Very likely it will have no ice at all by tonight. Thanks again everyone for all the different ice out reports. |
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Dan
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I'm hoping the 13th estimate is spot on also. I have that day off and expect to spend the entire day trolling the big lake. Even if not officially declared Ice Out...I regularly am able to troll many areas in the week leading up to ice out so I expect to be on the lake on the 13th.
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Hi;
one of my buddies went up to the Weirs Beach chanel this morning. There were about 20 guys fishing along the various docks on the chanel, and everyone was catching nice "Bows" WINNIPESAUKEE BOB |
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When you say “various docks” where exactly do you mean? Do the marinas allow fisherman to fish from their docks when they’re closed?
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HI FOLKS:
I Decided to hook up my "LIVE WEB CAM" to the internet, so "click on the link", and you can get a look down the bay from WEIRS BEACH to MERIDITH BAY. I made it password free, so everyone can see what I see from my front porch. https://video.nest.com/live/cfVEpKU9JY The view is from my condo, which is about 300 yards from the Weirs Beach looking down the bay NW to Meridith... "Spindle Point" is off to the right. As you can see, the ice is getting farther out each day. The sun sets on the left.. I have over 50 years with my family from this location. So, now, you all can enjoy my view as often as you like. The firrst picture, below, is a grouper which I caught in florida, but the rest of pics are me and friends at Winni. Sorry fot a couple of upside down and sideways pics, but the is due to picture size that the Winni Forum can't correct. ENJOY WINNIPESAUKEEBOB Last edited by WINNIPESAUKEEBOB; 04-18-2018 at 06:31 PM. Reason: add url |
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nice cam! (and great photos!)
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Very nice Bob! Did you change the view? Seems like earlier today it was a much wider angle shot up the lake...a small suggestion; perhaps you could center the camera in a window so the frame isn’t in the picture!
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Forecast doesn’t look to promising to accelerate the process either. Temps many nights still below freezing. The only hope is the rain they are predicting for Tuesday and Thursday
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Maybe time to just take up a winter sport, as winter seems to have prevalence over summer weather the last few years.
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These cold nights (low 20's) have really really put a damper on any ice melt. Very little if any progress in the last few days...so much for fishing this upcoming weekend!!
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I want to do some yard work and I still have huge piles of snow.
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Me too ...... all the more reason to go fishing.
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Out of curiosity. Anyone know When squam usually gives up all or most of its ice to get some fishing in. Is it a few days ahead or behind of winnie? |
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I drove around much of Squam yesterday and it looked totally socked in. No idea what the ice thickness is, but to my eye, it looked like it was behind Winni.
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@ Beauport
Thanks for the squam lake ice information ![]() |
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The view today from Belknap Point is essentially the same as 5 days ago. All ice except for a small area off south Welch.
Our Eastern is in the water at Fay’s and Smith Cove is mostly open so I suppose we could do laps around the cove ☹️ Sent from my iPad using Winnipesaukee Forum mobile app |
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Lily Pond is ICE FREE. 10 days. I'm thinking April 19th. Typical 3rd week of April Ice out.
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Chaos, any updated pictures from Alton Bay? I'm hoping for ice to pull back to Sandy Point and I will be on the water Friday. I think it would take a small miracle. A nice start would be rain and no snow from tomorrows front. We get 50s and 60s the rest of the week around my neck of the woods but nighttime temps just aren't low enough to sustain rapid melting. Only hope is those warming waters coming into the Bay.
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Sorry, nothing new. I won't be up again until my boat is unwrapped and I start the multi-day polish and wax before launch. My guess, with the weather we've had, it's not much past the bandstand since I took that picture last week. Ugggh!
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Lily Pond now 100% ice free. How long after Lily Pond is ice free does Winni usually declare ice out? Is it typically 2 weeks?
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