Watching the Tropics - 2008

[CanisLupusArctos]

We've had a very rainy summer with high lake level and lots of local flood damage. Fall is now here, which brings the peak of the hurricane season. History shows it is not unusual at all for hurricanes, tropical storms, or their remnants to come here.

We need to be watching the tropics. R2B brought this up in an earlier post at the beginning of hurricane season and brought out some good points at that time. It's now time to revisit them.

Background info... the Hurricane of 1938 caused a great deal of landslide damage in the White Mountains, and the Mt. Washington Cog RR was one casualty of that storm. More recently, Tropical Storm Floyd in 1999 took a coastal track. Not much happened in coastal NH, closer to the storm's center, but local topography in the Lakes Region enhanced the wind to the point where it blew down hundreds of trees around the northwestern end of the lake. Remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie in 2004 produced a tornado over Meredith, along with extremely heavy downpours. Repeating - even remnants of tropical systems can produce damage.

This year I would be most concerned about heavy rains which are the most common element of tropical remnants. They can and often do produce strong wind gusts also. The area has been weakened by both elements this summer. As a result, the area's tolerance for either one is low. Wind or rain that wouldn't normally be damaging could prove damaging now. Trees around here have felt strong wind gusts from thunderstorms all summer long and tree damage has been occurring at lower and lower wind speeds with time. Many of last month's washouts have only been temporarily repaired.

The Atlantic is now very active with tropical systems. First we need to watch Hanna, which is likely to hit us this coming weekend with remnants. It is expected to take an inland track, but there is a small chance NH could get winds of tropical storm force from it.

On its heels are Ike and Josephine. Both are on tracks that could take them up the East Coast IF the weather systems around them steered them this way. In the last couple of weeks we have seen the high pressure (big blue H) hanging around the east coast. It means good weather when it's nearby, and that's what we've had. It has a clockwise circulation (opposite that of a storm, a low pressure center.) When the high pressure sets up off the east coast, the circulation brings warm air up from the south and we have sunny skies to go along with it. We call that "Bermuda High" because the center of it, which we mark with the big blue H, sets up between NC and Bermuda. The clockwise flow around the high may give us nice weather, but it also grabs tropical systems from the Caribbean and helps steer them up the coast at us.

This thread is for discussing of tropical systems that could hit or have already hit NH.

[Rose]

We're going on a windjammer cruise out of Camden Sept. 18-22, so I can assure you the weather gods will probably poop all over this vacation, too, and that's when we'll get a major blow.

Seriously, though, Hanna will have to be monitored as she is currently forecast to screw up this weekend as she transitions from tropical storm to depression status.

[Resident 2B]

Originally Posted by Rose

We're going on a windjammer cruise out of Camden Sept. 18-22, so I can assure you the weather gods will probably poop all over this vacation, too, and that's when we'll get a major blow.

Rose,

It sounds like this could be great fun! Great time of the year for a windjammer cruise. With the number of tropical storms to our south, the winds should be blowing and the surf should be up.

I hope you can get out and if you do, it should be great!

Enjoy!

R2B

[Rose]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

Rose,

It sounds like this could be great fun! Great time of the year for a windjammer cruise. With the number of tropical storms to our south, the winds should be blowing and the surf should be up.

I hope you can get out and if you do, it should be great!

Enjoy!

R2B

Thanks, R2B! My husband was on fast frigates in the Navy, so he's use to the motion...I, on the other hand, may turn into a green rose.

[dpg]

Originally Posted by Rose

Thanks, R2B! My husband was on fast frigates in the Navy, so he's use to the motion...I, on the other hand, may turn into a green rose.

Cruises are awesome been on two in the past four winters. Caribbean and the Bahamas but then again the winter time is their dry season. During two weeks of cruising we have run into 1/2 day of rain and that was in Florida catching the ship. I'd highly recommend them for anyone who hasn't been and is considering one. But wait till hurricane season is over, their cheaper this time of the year for a reason.

[Rose]

Originally Posted by dpg

Cruises are awesome been on two in the past four winters. Caribbean and the Bahamas but then again the winter time is their dry season. During two weeks of cruising we have run into 1/2 day of rain and that was in Florida catching the ship. I'd highly recommend them for anyone who hasn't been and is considering one. But wait till hurricane season is over, their cheaper this time of the year for a reason.

I've been on cruise ship cruises in the past, and not had any problem with the motion (the last one was on the Grand Princess, and you could hardly tell the darn thing was moving at all). This time, it's on a schooner called the Lewis R. French, and they don't do the coast of Maine in the winter (and neither would I )

[Resident 2B]

CLA,

You beat me to this by about two hours.

It is looking like Hanna will be a TS or a strong TD moving very quickly when it is near us this coming Saturday. We could be in the right front sector which is the most intense sector, but it is too early to really tell.

Because it will be moving so fast, the duration of the rain will be short. However, we could see a few inches driven by tropical storm force winds, especially if it passes just to our west.

Time will tell! It is a good idea to stay on top of the NHC forecasts as we are approaching the peak of the tropical season in the northern hemi and as CLA noted, there are four wet areas: G, H, I and J to watch for. This will keep us talking for two weeks or so.

The folks at the dam have done a great job with lowering the level of the lake, but we are still quite high for this time of the year. I would expect them to increase outflow in the next two days if Hanna looks to come close.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

It is looking like Hanna will be a TS or a strong TD moving very quickly when it is near us this coming Saturday. We could be in the right front sector which is the most intense sector, but it is too early to really tell.

Because it will be moving so fast, the duration of the rain will be short.

Time will tell! It is a good idea to stay on top of the NHC forecasts as we are approaching the peak of the tropical season.
R2B

This kind of motion combined with tropical energy may give us a tornado or two. The July 23 and 24 tornadoes in New England occurred with a very rapidly moving south-to-north moisture stream. Whether or not the right dynamics occur again this weekend depends on what Hanna's track is. As you say, time will tell.

Now is a good time for everyone to start quietly considering various "what if" situations... mentally preparing. It's never a bad time to do that... but the current state of the Atlantic should serve as a prompt for anyone who hasn't.

[chipj29]

Hannah could be interesting if she takes a track up the coast. I am not sure that is the most likely scenario.
The last forecasted track of Ike that I saw had him heading almost due west into the Caribbean.

As others said above, keep your eyes open this year. We have had some pretty wild weather so far...

[Resident 2B]

The latest projected track for Hanna still has what will be left of the storm tracking over New England late Saturday and early Sunday. The NHC has shifted the track slightly to the right over the last 24 hours, so what side of the storm the lakes region will be on is a toss-up.

Hanna will be moving very fast, even for storms up here in New England. Those on the east side of the storm often have the speed of the storm increasing wind speeds measured on the ground with those west of the storm seeing lower wind speeds. Because of this, track could be important.

Biggest problem for us should be the rain. A fast moving event has less rain because it does not last long. Therefore, faster is better and should keep flood potential low.

R2B

[Rose]

Originally Posted by chipj29

The last forecasted track of Ike that I saw had him heading almost due west into the Caribbean.

As others said above, keep your eyes open this year. We have had some pretty wild weather so far...

I kinda like Ike's track on the ECMWF*

*This is time sensitive. Make sure the "Step(->valid time)" is set for "240(Sat 13 Sep 2008 00UTC)" and the "Forecast base time" is set for "Wed 3 Sep 2008 00 UTC". That's the chart that has me interested but could change on the next model run.

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by Rose

I kinda like Ike's track on the ECMWF

Ummmm....Yikes!! Or is it YIKEs

[CanisLupusArctos]

YEEEAAAHHH! To that latest Ike track.

Hanna's track now looks the same. A coast-hugger.

[meteotrade]

I'm willing to bet the track of Hanna goes over or just off the SNE coast. Fun times for the Cape and Nantucket, but nothing more than a run of the mill noreaster for the lake. Rain and cool- a purely terrible weekend. I guess we could use a little water, been bone dry for a couple weeks now.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Floyd did the coastal route in 1999, and for most of NH it wasn't anything special, but around the northwest end of the lake there was local topographic enhancement of the northeast wind that led to the felling of hundreds of trees.

I drove up to the lake from Portsmouth, where a "run of the mill nor'easter" was happening, and I found increasing amounts of tree debris on the road as I got west of Gilford. Through Meredith I was regularly driving around large tree limbs in the road. Ultimately I couldn't get into the house because there was a tree and wires across the road. A firefighter on scene told me they wouldn't be able to clear it until the next day because of all the others just like it. I had to spend the night elsewhere.

Every tropical system is different, so there is no guarantee that Hanna will live up to any previous storm, but we should also remember that every tropical system--even a remnant low--is capable of its own brand of destruction.

[katiesmom]

Rose I hope you have a great time on your windjammer cruise they are alot of fun. I was on one years ago and we didn't know a hurricane was heading our way until the day we got off the boat because there is no tv papers etc. They really know what they are doing and will not put you or their boat in danger. What site is that you provided the link to I am in Stuart Fla and using that it looks as though it is coming right at us. I wanted to track the other storms too thanks

[Rose]

Originally Posted by katiesmom

Rose I hope you have a great time on your windjammer cruise they are alot of fun. I was on one years ago and we didn't know a hurricane was heading our way until the day we got off the boat because there is no tv papers etc. They really know what they are doing and will not put you or their boat in danger. What site is that you provided the link to I am in Stuart Fla and using that it looks as though it is coming right at us. I wanted to track the other storms too thanks

Thanks for the well wishes. I'm sure they won't put us in danger, but what happened to the Fantome in Hurricane Mitch is always in the back of my mind. I'd hate for them to risk themselves to save the ship.

That site is the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, and the model they run is called by the center's acronym. It's a very good model, but the Europeans are notorious for being stingy with their weather data and products, so I don't use it as much as I use the US and Canadian models.

[CanisLupusArctos]

Hanna is looking more like a nor'easter to me this morning. I still hesitate to call any tropical system "just a nor'easter," but it's had a hard time pulling itself together into that classic pinwheel shape the last several days. It'll move up the coast at us, and we should prepare for lots of wind and rain, but as R2B mentions it'll be fast moving. I'm guessing the effects will be similar to what we get from the strong winter nor'easters except we're not getting snow.

Earlier I had said that Hanna stood a chance at being like Floyd of 1999 (here.) Today I thought better of that prediction. Floyd chugged across the Atlantic as a major hurricane and still had plenty of tropical features in it when it aimed at us. Hanna is having a hard time retaining its tropical features. It has spent more time in a state of disorganization than as a well-aligned system.

My eyes are turning to Ike, with great wonder: What will it do, once it is in the same place where Hanna is now? It could keep going and hit Florida, or it could follow Hanna's track up the east coast. This storm has more potential to be like Floyd, if not Bob (1991) or Gloria (1985)... IF it decides to come up the east coast.

Here's a bit of hurricane trivia: The last time a hurricane warning was issued for the New England coast was not in hurricane season at all, but in January 2005. The Blizzard of 2005 had maximum sustained winds greater than 74 mph (along the coast) and so the hurricane flags had to be hoisted over the ports. To avoid confusion, the National Weather Service advertised the alert as a "Hurricane Force Wind Warning" rather than "Hurricane Warning." The wind drove sheets of sea spray on the coastal homes where it froze so thick the owners had to chip their way in upon returning. It was a blessing, however: The ice layer was credited with protecting the structures from wind damage. Salem, Massachusetts got 38 inches of snow from that storm.

[chipj29]

CLA, a third scenario has Ike turning harmlessly out to sea. Additionally, there are several different scenarios once it hits land.

1. Hits Florida, and heads up the coast
2. Hits Florida, and turns a sharp right out to sea
3. Hits NC/SC/VA, and heads up the coast
4. Hits NC/SC/VA, and turns a sharp right out to sea
5. Hits New England (unlikely)
6. Misses all above landfalls and just turns out to sea
7. None of the above

Either way, Ike is surely an interesting one for the entire eastern seaboard to be watching over the next 7-10 days.

[Resident 2B]

A stream of dry air coming out of Georgia, flowing north to south over Florida has been sucked into Hanna's circulation causing Hanna to lose most of her tropical characteristics. However, recently Hanna has pushed the dry air off of Florida and looks to be trying to wrap her moisture around the circulation center.

If Hanna is able to win her battle with the dry air, she could still become a hurricane before hitting the Carolinas and be a tropical storm Saturday near us.

If the dry air wins, Hanna's remains will likely go out to sea to our south.

Time will tell!

Ike could be a big concern if some of the models are correct. Still way too early to get excited over Ike, but he is something to watch.

R2B

[CanisLupusArctos]

Here is my Hanna forecast, also available as part of my regular "weather notes" on the local forecast section of the WeatherCenter site.

I agree with and have "translated" this morning's NWS forecast discussion from Gray ME. Here is my reasoning: Even though the warm and muggy stuff is over us now, we know from our "where was summer?" experience that the cool air is still nearby somewhere; this humid summery air just managed to boot it aside for a couple of days. With that said, a strong circulation like Hanna will most certainly be taking a big breath of Autumn as it buzzes our coastline. Have you seen the changing leaves? The same kind of weather that's given us some early foliage is also what will help Hanna transform from a tropical system to a winter-style east coast system.

My note follows:

Tropical Storm Hanna will make a run up the east coast in the next 48 hours.
This will bring us a day of tropical downpours tomorrow, but I don't think the
entire day will be a washout. The bulk of the rain will hold off until late
afternoon and evening. This storm will be making a transformation from a
tropical storm to a powerful nor'easter. The difference is this: A tropical
storm has a symmetric pinwheel structure and the heaviest rain is usually on the
east side of the center. In a nor'easter, the structure of the storm is comma-
shaped, not symmetric, and the heaviest rain is on the northern and western side
of the center. Hanna's center will be right off the New England coast on Sunday
morning as it makes the transition from "tropical" to "Nor'easter." That will
shift the heavy rain from offshore (east of the center) to "over us" (west and
north of the center.)

While much of the state has seen incredible amounts of rain all summer, it's a
close call as to whether or not more flooding will occur from Hanna. If rainfall
rates are heavy enough, there could be flash flooding, but it looks like we're
going to get spared the lasting, general flooding tropical storms and remnants
often generate because Hanna will be moving very quickly. If the storm slows
down at all, we would likely get some general flooding.

Strong winds, especially along the coast, will blow from the northeast. Gusts
could get past 50 mph on a few occasions early Sunday morning. Winds away from
the coast could hit 40 mph a few times but will generally stay in the 20-30 mph
range. Winds will shift to the northwest and begin to quickly diminish late
Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon as skies begin to clear.

For the latest official information on Hanna or Ike, visit the National Hurricane
Center's web site at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

[Resident 2B]

Hanna has won her battle with the dry air and has redevloped a core. The recent satellite loops clearly show this and the 2 PM NHC update should note this as well. This is an important step towards becoming a hurricane again. I looks to me that Hanna will be a Hurricane within the next six to nine hours.

This does not really change the lakes region forecast much and I think CLA has done his usual great job in stating what is likely to happen around here tomorrow and into Sunday morning.

The potential for a stronger storm has an increasing impact on Cape Cod and Long Island, the one in NY.

R2B

[chipj29]

Originally Posted by chipj29

CLA, a third scenario has Ike turning harmlessly out to sea. Additionally, there are several different scenarios once it hits land.

1. Hits Florida, and heads up the coast
2. Hits Florida, and turns a sharp right out to sea
3. Hits NC/SC/VA, and heads up the coast
4. Hits NC/SC/VA, and turns a sharp right out to sea
5. Hits New England (unlikely)
6. Misses all above landfalls and just turns out to sea
7. None of the above

Either way, Ike is surely an interesting one for the entire eastern seaboard to be watching over the next 7-10 days.

Looks like #7 is going to be the way Ike goes. Straight to Texas...
Good thing I didn't pursue a career in weather...

[CanisLupusArctos]

We may get Ike after all. After he makes landfall in Texas, recurving is likely and the remnants will be headed in a northeast direction after that. I think the peak of hurricane season has just passed though. It was a party out there for the last couple of weeks but things seem to be quickly morphing into "fall" in North America now. It's not done, so watch out, but I have a feeling we've just seen the busiest part of the season.

[Resident 2B]

It has been too quiet in the tropics the last two weeks, but it is looking like things are about to change. There is an area with the potentail to develop near Puerto Rico. The area could be a depression in a day or two.

Models move this system to the Carolinas by Thursday or Friday. It may or may not be a TS or a Hurricane, but it looks like a very wet system. From the Carolinas it looks to hook northwest into the Delmarva which is unusual. We could see rain, maybe a lot of rain, a week from now.

It will be something for us to watch and will liven up what has been a dull two weeks.

70 years ago yesterday the Hurricane of '38 clobbered Long Island and New England. Although the weather has cooled here in NH, there is still a lot of warm water south of Long Island, and tropical systems can still hit the northeast this time of the year.

R2B