Hurricane/tropical storm

SteveA · 10-25-2012, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hilltopper

By the looks of the path and timing, Sandy could out a huge damper on Halloween activities.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

'Damper" may very well be the key word.. last year we had the historic snowstorm on Halloween.. it was sad.. no kids showed up and we got stuck with two of those giant bags of candy you can buy at Sam's Club.

In all seriousness.. it was a bad storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter

cillovely · 10-25-2012, 10:32 AM

I hope it passes us and Halloween isn't a wash out. Luckily last year we were ok and the storm didn't effect us. But this year I have 108 pieces of full size candy from BJ's all set for this Wednesday. We do average 100 kids and if I use those pathetic little bars, I end up giving each kid 2 or 3 so it ends up being the same cost or even a bit less. So if I end up with all this candy I don't know what I'm going to do. I guess I'll bring most of it (except the Resse's) to work for the vultures

GTO · 10-25-2012, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cillovely

I hope it passes us and Halloween isn't a wash out. Luckily last year we were ok and the storm didn't effect us. But this year I have 108 pieces of full size candy from BJ's all set for this Wednesday. We do average 100 kids and if I use those pathetic little bars, I end up giving each kid 2 or 3 so it ends up being the same cost or even a bit less. So if I end up with all this candy I don't know what I'm going to do. I guess I'll bring most of it (except the Resse's) to work for the vultures

If you have that much left over and you don't have kids that will enjoy it.......send it to the troops overseas

PaugusBayFireFighter · 10-25-2012, 01:34 PM

I'm certainly not an alarmist. I've lived in New England long enough to know weather is something we deal with, and the news stations love hyping a good weather story. I don't like destruction, but I love big storms. I love weather!
I have been watching/reading about this storm for a couple of days. Yesterday morning I was sure that the possibility of another "perfect" storm, worse than the first because of the impact to inland areas, was just a lot of hype. Twenty-four hours later, I'm changing my view of this storm and already planning for it. Did a little stocking up this morning at the market. This weekend could/will be a zoo in the supermarkets.
Possibly lots of wind and rain, maybe even snow. With the leaves still on a lot of the trees you can count on wide spread power outages similar to the ice storm a couple years ago. I'm not convinced this will happen to the lakes region, but I am convinced the storm is going to be either a glancing blow OR a knock-out punch. Unfortunately, next week is going to be a very bad week for some parts of the northeast.

hilltopper · 10-25-2012, 02:53 PM

We shall see. Projected paths first thing this morning did not look good, but the updates at Noon look much better...for NH anyway. The storm seems to be shifting West. Either way, you're right. Some folks in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states are going to have a bad week.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

Resident 2B · 10-25-2012, 03:19 PM

I believe that by the time Sandy gets to New England, if it gets this far north, it will be more like a big Nor'easter and less like a tropical system. This is good and bad, all at the same time.

A Nor'easter is a larger storm system, unlike a tropical system that is usually much smaller with a very intense center. However, as a larger system, the exact track does not really matter that much. It could cross the coast in northern NJ and we could still get a good amount of wind and rain. There will be a huge fetch with the storm, so the sea coast will get hit hard.

Another thing to keep in mind is the NHC is using models designed for tropical systems to forecast what will be a hybrid or a non-tropical system. As a result, there will be changes to the track and intensity during the period of time before it gets to us. Although the NWS and the NHC are part of NOAA, they have separate offices and forecasters. I am sure there are some interesting technical discussion going on at the NOAA level.

We will likely get a good rain and wind storm early next week. How bad is still TBD, but it is clearly something to watch very closely.

Time will tell!

R2B

ClosetExtrovert · 10-25-2012, 03:42 PM

And I'm looking out at the 120 foot oak tree that could take out my entire main floor.

I know it's a healthy tree and I have it trimmed regularly, but when one of these storms hits, it scares me to no end. I have another 12 100+ foot trees out there, too. And as I recall, after last year's hurricane I swore I was going to take that tree down.

I'm getting a little nervous...It's supposed to hit us head on.

MDoug · 10-26-2012, 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClosetExtrovert

And I'm looking out at the 120 foot oak tree that could take out my entire main floor.

I know it's a healthy tree and I have it trimmed regularly, but when one of these storms hits, it scares me to no end. I have another 12 100+ foot trees out there, too. And as I recall, after last year's hurricane I swore I was going to take that tree down.

I'm getting a little nervous...It's supposed to hit us head on.

We called Chris Savage and his tree crew. They are now taking down a few dead/dying trees that could fall on the camp in high wind.

Good luck to you!

bclaker · 10-26-2012, 09:13 AM

The channel 9 weather guy called it "Frankenstorm".

Rusty · 10-26-2012, 09:51 AM

Latest prediction is that it will be gong north west when it hits the NYC, DC area. We'll still get some rain and wind, but not like the where it first comes on shore.

HOWEVER...

?
?
?
?

BroadHopper · 10-26-2012, 11:57 AM

take all these 'bad' weather without a flinch. Remember the ice storm I think in 2008? The condo association did not have electricity for 5 days. What we did have is natural gas. We would fire up our natural gas logs or use boat batteries and inverter to heat up the kitchen with natural gas oven.

SIKSUKR · 10-26-2012, 12:53 PM

I didn't have it for almost a week last Halloween.

BroadHopper · 10-26-2012, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusty

Latest prediction is that it will be gong north west when it hits the NYC, DC area. We'll still get some rain and wind, but not like the where it first comes on shore.

HOWEVER...

?
?
?
?

This is nothing new. Ill wind is always blowing in Washington.................

BobbyA · 10-26-2012, 05:26 PM

Thats funny

Belmont Resident · 10-26-2012, 06:49 PM

Just watched the weather and now they are saying it looks like the track may be further north and we may feel more effects.
Unfortunately until it actually hits we probably won't get anything accurate.
My question is, and many I've talked to concur, why are the European forecast models more accurate then ours?
More than one news station was reporting that our models were not as accurate as theirs are.

Resident 2B · 10-26-2012, 10:17 PM

For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather.

As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'.

No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing.

We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting!

R2B

Belmont Resident · 10-27-2012, 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resident 2B

For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather.

As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'.

No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing.

We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting!

R2B

Thanks for the information. I have always wondered why forecasts for the most part more then 2-3 day out seem to be so inaccurate.

trfour · 10-27-2012, 04:28 PM

May be another Big One!!

The late-season storm has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" by some weather watchers because it will combine elements of a tropical cyclone and a winter storm. Forecast says residents can expect up to 2 feet of snow as Sandy reaches the U.S. coast around Halloween.
Hurricane Sandy, upgraded again Saturday just hours after forecasters said it had weakened to a tropical storm, was barreling north from the Caribbean and was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland, creating a hybrid monster storm.
http://t.news.msn.com/us/sandy-close...kenstorm-looms

Keep an EYE on this storm!

Terry
_________________________________

codeman671 · 10-27-2012, 05:47 PM

Heading to Florida in the morning. For the second year in a row we will miss the mess!

I still have 2 boats on the water, each with 6 ropes on them. All furniture is put away and the cameras are on so I can see the progress from afar.

Belmont Resident · 10-27-2012, 07:44 PM

NECN is saying gusts to 60mph as far north as Laconia on Monday.
Winds will be the major factor in this storm with only 2-5 inches of rain expected.

ApS · 10-28-2012, 09:46 AM

This morning, the center of the storm is slated to make a sharp turn into the Pennsylvania area; however, the Lake still remains on the "bad side" of the storm.

Belmont Resident · 10-28-2012, 04:56 PM

I just fired up the generator.

I forgot I left gas in it from last time so I had to drain the tank and the carb bowl.
Once the new gas got through it purrred.
Wife says now that the generator is ready to go we won't loose power!!

That is the way it has gone ever since I got it.
I'll wait till tomorrow to get gas, it's crazy around town. Just stopped in Hannafords and you would think the worlds coming to an end.

That is not till due to happen till December

Bear Island South · 10-25-2012, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveA

'Damper" may very well be the key word.. last year we had the historic snowstorm on Halloween.. it was sad.. no kids showed up and we got stuck with two of those giant bags of candy you can buy at Sam's Club.

In all seriousness.. it was a bad storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter

This was morning after the the big storm last year.

10-25-2012, 03:42 PM	#7
ClosetExtrovert Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: New Jersey where the weak are killed and eaten. Posts: 79 Thanks: 84 Thanked 7 Times in 5 Posts	I'm in NJ And I'm looking out at the 120 foot oak tree that could take out my entire main floor. I know it's a healthy tree and I have it trimmed regularly, but when one of these storms hits, it scares me to no end. I have another 12 100+ foot trees out there, too. And as I recall, after last year's hurricane I swore I was going to take that tree down. I'm getting a little nervous...It's supposed to hit us head on.

10-26-2012, 09:13 AM	#9
bclaker Senior Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: Laconia Posts: 479 Thanks: 545 Thanked 147 Times in 66 Posts	Frankenstorm The channel 9 weather guy called it "Frankenstorm".

10-26-2012, 09:51 AM	#10
Rusty Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,028 Thanks: 603 Thanked 687 Times in 425 Posts	Latest prediction is that it will be gong north west when it hits the NYC, DC area. We'll still get some rain and wind, but not like the where it first comes on shore. HOWEVER... ? ? ? ? Attached Images __________________ It's never crowded along the extra mile.

10-26-2012, 11:57 AM	#11
BroadHopper Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Laconia NH Posts: 5,606 Thanks: 3,238 Thanked 1,113 Times in 799 Posts	NH Natives take all these 'bad' weather without a flinch. Remember the ice storm I think in 2008? The condo association did not have electricity for 5 days. What we did have is natural gas. We would fire up our natural gas logs or use boat batteries and inverter to heat up the kitchen with natural gas oven. __________________ Someday may never be an actual day.

10-26-2012, 12:53 PM	#12
SIKSUKR Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,075 Thanks: 215 Thanked 903 Times in 509 Posts	I didn't have it for almost a week last Halloween. __________________ SIKSUKR

10-25-2012, 10:32 AM	#2
cillovely Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Boston, MA Posts: 106 Thanks: 17 Thanked 26 Times in 15 Posts	I hope it passes us and Halloween isn't a wash out. Luckily last year we were ok and the storm didn't effect us. But this year I have 108 pieces of full size candy from BJ's all set for this Wednesday. We do average 100 kids and if I use those pathetic little bars, I end up giving each kid 2 or 3 so it ends up being the same cost or even a bit less. So if I end up with all this candy I don't know what I'm going to do. I guess I'll bring most of it (except the Resse's) to work for the vultures

The Following User Says Thank You to GTO For This Useful Post:
BroadHopper (10-26-2012)

10-25-2012, 01:34 PM	#4
PaugusBayFireFighter Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 837 Thanks: 361 Thanked 674 Times in 264 Posts	I'm certainly not an alarmist. I've lived in New England long enough to know weather is something we deal with, and the news stations love hyping a good weather story. I don't like destruction, but I love big storms. I love weather! I have been watching/reading about this storm for a couple of days. Yesterday morning I was sure that the possibility of another "perfect" storm, worse than the first because of the impact to inland areas, was just a lot of hype. Twenty-four hours later, I'm changing my view of this storm and already planning for it. Did a little stocking up this morning at the market. This weekend could/will be a zoo in the supermarkets. Possibly lots of wind and rain, maybe even snow. With the leaves still on a lot of the trees you can count on wide spread power outages similar to the ice storm a couple years ago. I'm not convinced this will happen to the lakes region, but I am convinced the storm is going to be either a glancing blow OR a knock-out punch. Unfortunately, next week is going to be a very bad week for some parts of the northeast.

10-25-2012, 02:53 PM	#5
hilltopper Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Meredith Posts: 727 Thanks: 25 Thanked 109 Times in 70 Posts	We shall see. Projected paths first thing this morning did not look good, but the updates at Noon look much better...for NH anyway. The storm seems to be shifting West. Either way, you're right. Some folks in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states are going to have a bad week. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...large#contents

10-25-2012, 03:19 PM	#6
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	I believe that by the time Sandy gets to New England, if it gets this far north, it will be more like a big Nor'easter and less like a tropical system. This is good and bad, all at the same time. A Nor'easter is a larger storm system, unlike a tropical system that is usually much smaller with a very intense center. However, as a larger system, the exact track does not really matter that much. It could cross the coast in northern NJ and we could still get a good amount of wind and rain. There will be a huge fetch with the storm, so the sea coast will get hit hard. Another thing to keep in mind is the NHC is using models designed for tropical systems to forecast what will be a hybrid or a non-tropical system. As a result, there will be changes to the track and intensity during the period of time before it gets to us. Although the NWS and the NHC are part of NOAA, they have separate offices and forecasters. I am sure there are some interesting technical discussion going on at the NOAA level. We will likely get a good rain and wind storm early next week. How bad is still TBD, but it is clearly something to watch very closely. Time will tell! R2B

10-26-2012, 05:26 PM	#14
BobbyA Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 40 Thanks: 1 Thanked 5 Times in 5 Posts	Thats funny

10-26-2012, 06:49 PM	#15
Belmont Resident Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Belmont NH but prefer Jackman Maine Posts: 1,857 Thanks: 491 Thanked 410 Times in 251 Posts	Latest trend is further north Just watched the weather and now they are saying it looks like the track may be further north and we may feel more effects. Unfortunately until it actually hits we probably won't get anything accurate. My question is, and many I've talked to concur, why are the European forecast models more accurate then ours? More than one news station was reporting that our models were not as accurate as theirs are. __________________ "better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, then a long life spent in a miserable way.."

10-26-2012, 10:17 PM	#16
Resident 2B Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: North Shore, MA Posts: 1,358 Thanks: 996 Thanked 314 Times in 164 Posts	For some reason, over the past few years, the European model, the ECMWF, has been more accurate than our models in forecasting east coast tropical weather 4 or so days out. Our model that is best at forecasting east coast tropical weather is the GFS, and that model is as good or better two or fewer days out. These are all "in my opinion". There are many other models, but these are the two go-to models for east coast tropical weather. As it stands, the GFS is holding fast with the idea of a NYC/Long Island/South Coast hit. The forecasters are starting to wonder which of the models is correct. That is why you will start to hear, 'it might hit a bit farther north'. No matter where the center hits land, this is a huge storm and something we have not really seen before, with the possible exception of the Perfect Storm in 1991 As a result, the models are dealing with something hardly ever seen. Therefore, we still need to pay very close attention to the forecast and at least think about preparing. We will know more tomorrow and Sunday. This will be interesting! R2B

The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Resident 2B For This Useful Post:
Belmont Resident (10-27-2012), Jonas Pilot (10-27-2012), Pineedles (10-27-2012), trfour (10-27-2012)

10-27-2012, 04:28 PM	#18
trfour Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Lakes, Central NH. and Dallas/Fort Worth TX. Posts: 3,694 Blog Entries: 3 Thanks: 3,069 Thanked 472 Times in 236 Posts	"Frankenstorm" May be another Big One!! The late-season storm has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" by some weather watchers because it will combine elements of a tropical cyclone and a winter storm. Forecast says residents can expect up to 2 feet of snow as Sandy reaches the U.S. coast around Halloween. Hurricane Sandy, upgraded again Saturday just hours after forecasters said it had weakened to a tropical storm, was barreling north from the Caribbean and was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland, creating a hybrid monster storm. http://t.news.msn.com/us/sandy-close...kenstorm-looms Keep an EYE on this storm! Terry _________________________________ __________________ *trfour* Always Remember, The Best Safety Device In The Boat, or on a PWC Snowmobile etc., Is YOU! Safe sledding tips and much more; http://www.snowmobile.org/snowmobiling-safety.html

10-27-2012, 05:47 PM	#19
codeman671 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,540 Thanks: 222 Thanked 828 Times in 499 Posts	Heading to Florida in the morning. For the second year in a row we will miss the mess! I still have 2 boats on the water, each with 6 ropes on them. All furniture is put away and the cameras are on so I can see the progress from afar.

10-27-2012, 07:44 PM	#20
Belmont Resident Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Belmont NH but prefer Jackman Maine Posts: 1,857 Thanks: 491 Thanked 410 Times in 251 Posts	Necn NECN is saying gusts to 60mph as far north as Laconia on Monday. Winds will be the major factor in this storm with only 2-5 inches of rain expected. __________________ "better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, then a long life spent in a miserable way.."

10-28-2012, 09:46 AM	#21
ApS Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Florida (Sebring & Keys), Wolfeboro Posts: 5,987 Thanks: 2,257 Thanked 784 Times in 560 Posts	This morning, the center of the storm is slated to make a sharp turn into the Pennsylvania area; however, the Lake still remains on the "bad side" of the storm.

10-28-2012, 04:56 PM	#22
Belmont Resident Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Belmont NH but prefer Jackman Maine Posts: 1,857 Thanks: 491 Thanked 410 Times in 251 Posts	I'm ready! I just fired up the generator. I forgot I left gas in it from last time so I had to drain the tank and the carb bowl. Once the new gas got through it purrred. Wife says now that the generator is ready to go we won't loose power!! That is the way it has gone ever since I got it. I'll wait till tomorrow to get gas, it's crazy around town. Just stopped in Hannafords and you would think the worlds coming to an end. That is not till due to happen till December __________________ "better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, then a long life spent in a miserable way.."

The Following User Says Thank You to Bear Island South For This Useful Post:
ClosetExtrovert (11-06-2012)