And just like that...

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Slickcraft

lg: It looks like the variance has been fairly constant over time.

It's true that if one only focuses on the single data point for each year then it looks like "the variance has been fairly constant over time". But lg's smoothing curve averages recent data so that a naked eye is not fooled by year to year noise.

The chart actually shows 40 years of warming from the the 1970s to today.

[lakershaker]

Originally Posted by PeterG

It's true that if one only focuses on the single data point for each year then it looks like "the variance has been fairly constant over time". But lg's smoothing curve averages recent data so that a naked eye is not fooled by year to year noise.

The chart actually shows 40 years of warming from the the 1970s to today.

Actually, the chart shows ice out happening earlier over 40 years from 1970s to today. I don't see any reference to temperature. As people on the lake know, there are variables other than just temperature that determine ice-in and ice-out days. Wind being another major one.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by lakershaker

Actually, the chart shows ice out happening earlier over 40 years from 1970s to today. I don't see any reference to temperature. As people on the lake know, there are variables other than just temperature that determine ice-in and ice-out days. Wind being another major one.

I stand corrected, there was no reference to temperature. Rather than "warming", I should have said "warming effects". For we all know that there is a huge volume of data elsewhere that show our climate has warmed over the past 40 years, and that trend is well illustrated by the chart.

Wind speed, precipitation, sunshine, and other factors that have not shown steady trends over the decades would be likely causes of the sharp year-to-year variability. That's another reason why the smoothing is helpful.

[Blue Thunder]

And the ice conditions referenced above look like this today...

[SIKSUKR]

Hi BT.Can you provide that direct link to those daily sat pics?Thanks.

[HellRaZoR004]

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/

[Blue Thunder]

The above is correct. You then click on the northeast pic (pics are taken at different times of the day as the satellite passes by) Then select 250m and you'll get a pretty high resolution pic you can zoom in on. Typically those are the pics I post here. Pic is usually available between noon and 1pm depending on DST or EST

BT

[SIKSUKR]

Thanks guys. For some reason I'm not getting any pic at all, just an outline of the states.

[billy]

Pic is usually available between noon and 1pm depending on DST or EST

[SIKSUKR]

I'm getting it now. Thanks